U.S. Bancorp Buy opportunity setting upU.S. Bancorp is a financial service holding company. The Company’s major lines of business are Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support. The Company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services
FUNDAMENTAL METRICS
Exchange- New York stock exchange
Market capitalization- $75.73B
Basic EPS- $3.27
Total Net revenue- $28.1B
Net Income- $5.4B
Average common shares outstanding- 1.5B
Total assets- $663B
Deposits- $512B
Provision for credit losses -$2.3B
Dividends declared per share- $1.93
Financial metrics as at year ended Dec 31, 2023, Market cap as per 24.10.2024 Q4 EARNINGS SUMMARY (Date of release 16.10.2024) (Next report date Jan 16,2025)
1. Net income of $1,714 million and diluted earnings per common share of $1.03. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.5%.
2. There shall be a share buy back program of $5 billion.
3. The bank is focused on organic growth & broadening their reach. Not interested in mergers & Acquisitions currently. The bank's latest large investment was the acquisition of Union Bank, which closed in December 2022. This meaningfully expanded its presence in California.
4. Net revenue of $6,864 million, including $4,166 million of net interest income on a taxable-equivalent basis
5. Noninterest income of $2,817 million driven by year-over-year increases in:
i. Commercial products revenue of 12.1%
ii. Trust and investment management fees of 6.4%
iii. Payment services revenue of 3.1%
iv. Mortgage banking revenue of 7.6%
6. Non-interest expenses dropped by 1% compared to last year, but increased slightly by 0.4% compared to the last quarter, when accounting for previous notable expenses.
7. The bank's return on common equity was 17.9%, return on assets was 1.03%, and efficiency ratio was 60.2%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RULES
1. Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
2. Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- Corrective flag forming
3. Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- MACD 0 crossover to signal buys
4. Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- highlighted
5. Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price $67.35 (top of bigger correction)
Look for the trade on lower timeframe by identifying impulses & correction as shown
Recommendation:
Buy price range: $44.8- $48
Target price: $67
Top Shareholders
The Vanguard group- 8.64%
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company- 4.85%
State Street Global Advisors- 4.26%
MUFG Bank- 4.22%
Charles Schwab Investment managers- 2.92%
Fidelity Management- 2.66%
Community ideas
EURUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 200 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name :EUR/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
———————————
Bullish Break
1.08600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Hvn
- Fixed Range Hvn
- Channel Break
- Choch Zone
Bearish Reversal
1.10400 Area
Solana May Move Down After Pattern CompletionSolana May Move Down After Pattern Completion
Solana has completed a large bearish harmonic pattern near $183.30.
The pattern looks solid, and given that it was created in a strong historical zone, the odds are that we may see Solana moving down as shown on the chart.
This time, we have an aggressive bearish scenario, because the market is also speculating about the US elections and USD strength.
However, this is the nature of this pattern—it can push the price down aggressively when we least expect it.
I am watching for support zones at $165.00 and $154.00.
Let's see how the market unfolds.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
BITCOIN Gaussian Channel telling you the rally has already begunBitcoin (BTCUSD) is illustrated here on the 1W time-frame from the 2011 Cycle until today. We've used the Gaussian Channel (GC) after a long time and the reason is simple. Since the August 05 2024 Low, it has been supporting the uptrend up to today's test of the All Time High (ATH).
** Gaussian October support every 4 years **
This continuous support is a critical feature moving forward as every time the GC held at this stage of the previous Cycles (October 2020, 2016 and 2012), BTC started its final (and most aggressive) Parabolic Rally of the Cycle.
** Resistance turned Support **
What's equally interesting is that during those stages, the price also re-tested and held the former Resistance (of the previous Higher High), turned it into a Support (while the GC held) and bounced to the Parabolic Rally. This is a remarkably consistent feature taking place every 4 years!
** The green GC length matters **
Now as to the GC in more detail. What we want you to keep from it, is that the green part of the GC has lasted in the previous Cycles 123, 144 and 148 weeks respectively, which translates to 861, 1008 and 1036 days, until it turned red. As a result, we can expect the current green phase to last until December 08 2025 (minimum) and June 01 2026 (maximum). It is more reasonable to expect the longer case as the recent Cycles tend to have stabilized most of their common time patterns.
The Bear Cycle tends to start when a 1W candle is closed below the GC. Until then, based on the parallel Channel Up patterns that encompass 3 Cycles each time, we can even expect a price as high as $200000 for this Cycle Top.
Do you think that's realistic? And if so, do you also expect the GC wave to support a parabolic rally all the way to the top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our 1H chart complete and 4h chart targets also smashed. We got the EMA5 cross and lock above 2762 opening 2772 and 2781, which were hit today completing this 1h chart idea (please see below)
Our 4h chart also had ema5 cross and lock above 2737, opening 2760 and 2779, which were both hit completing this range. We now have ema5 lock above 2779 opening the range above. We always take caution chasing targets all the way to the top and that why using our Goldlturns to buy dips is the safest way to chase targets in a new range
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2760 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS) - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2779 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2797
POTENTIALLY 2814
BEARISH TARGETS
2737 - DONE
2715
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2715 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2693 - 2669
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Spotting EUR/USD Rebound Potential with Key Technicals!Today, we’re analysing the EUR/USD daily chart to see how key technical indicators align to impact trading decisions. Here’s what’s shaping up:
➡️ Current Support: We have an uptrend in place since April which is coinciding with a 78.6% retracement around the 1.0760/75 level (spanning June lows to September peaks). Adding strength to this support zone is the RSI divergence, signalling a potential corrective rebound.
➡️ Resistance Levels to Watch: For potential rebound targets, I start with Fibonacci retracements and key resistances:
• First Resistance: The 200-day moving average aligns with the 23.6% retracement at 1.0872.
• Second Resistance: The 38.2% retracement around 1.0950, showing multiple resistance touches, making it a significant challenge for further price movement.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
USD/JPY rally facing fundamental test with US job openings data USD/JPY remains a play on the US interest rate outlook, sitting with an incredibly strong correlation with US two-year Treasury note futures of -0.98 over the past fortnight. When short-dated US debt futures have moved in a particular direction, USD/JPY has almost always done the opposite, mirroring US Treasury yields.
With there's no obvious reversal pattern in US two-year note futures in the right-hand chart, providing reason to be cautious about getting to aggressive, with the first of the week’s major US economic releases on the way in the form of JOLTs job openings for September, the risk of profit-taking in USD/JPY appears elevated.
After a surprise bounce in August, markets are looking for only a minor decline in openings of 50,000 to 7.99 million. Notably, this survey tends to bounce around and we haven’t seen back-to-back increases since late 2022. That hints at the potential for a downside surprise that could spark downside for US Treasury yields and USD/JPY which have run very hard in recent weeks.
If the price holds below 153.19, you could initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection targeting a return to the 200DMA.
Good luck!
DS
Bitcoin Predictions for 2025 & Beyond: Who’s Eyeing $1 Million?If one thing is certain on this earth, it’s that Bitcoin BTC/USD predictions are as volatile as the coin’s price. In this Idea, we’ve gathered some notable Bitcoin price predictions with their respective time stamps.
Teaser: it’s a diverse set of characters ranging from bullish Wall Street pros and tech visionaries to some (permabear) economists and professors. Let’s check it out!
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) : $1 million
Cathie Wood is no stranger to making waves with her predictions. The risk-taking tech investor has said Bitcoin could reach a jaw-dropping $1 million by 2030, offering the stereotype attributes of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and increasing institutional adoption. Wood's more optimistic projection sees it soaring as high as $1.5 million in the same timeframe.
Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO) : $1 million
Michael Saylor, the ultimate Bitcoin maxi (borderline Bitcoin fanatic) who believes in total Bitcoin dominance , has been accumulating Bitcoin for his coin-hoarding company’s reserves and predicts it will eventually hit $1 million, emphasizing its superiority as a store of value compared to fiat currencies and gold.
Chamath Palihapitiya (Venture Capitalist) : $1 million
Chamath Palihapitiya has previously suggested Bitcoin could eventually hit $1 million, driven by macroeconomic instability and as a hedge against traditional financial systems.
Robert Kiyosaki (Author of Rich Dad Poor Dad) : $500,000
Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2025 due to the collapse of fiat currencies and increasing inflation.
Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital) : $500,000
Mike Novogratz is riding the bullish wave as well, predicting Bitcoin will hit $500,000 within the next three years. He believes this surge will be driven by Bitcoin's fixed amount of tokens (21 million) and growing adoption.
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss (Gemini Exchange Co-Founders) : $500,000
These crypto twins reiterate that Bitcoin could eventually reach $500,000 due to its potential to replace gold as a store of value.
Tim Draper (Venture Capitalist) : $250,000
Tim Draper has long maintained a prediction that Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by 2024, citing broader acceptance and institutional adoption not just of Bitcoin but the broader crypto market .
🏢 Institutional Investors and Their BTC Targets
Pantera Capital : $148,000
Crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital expects Bitcoin to rise to around $148,000 during the next four-year halving cycle (ending April 2028), based on historical trends.
JPMorgan : $45,000
Taking a more conservative stance, investment banking giant JPMorgan JPM projects a price target of $45,000, provided Bitcoin continues to gain acceptance as a risk-adjusted alternative to gold XAU/USD .
Standard Chartered : $120,000
Recently, UK-based bank Standard Chartered updated its forecast, predicting Bitcoin will rise to $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Bernstein Research : $150,000
Research firm Bernstein Research predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000, largely due to ETF demand and supply reductions following the 2024 halving .
🎢 Other Bitcoin Believers and Their BTC Targets
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) : $180,000
Luke Broyles (Bitcoin advocate) : $3 million
Raoul Pal (Real Vision CEO) : $1 million
Adam Back (Blockstream CEO) : $500,000
Anthony Pompliano (Crypto Investor and Influencer) : $500,000
John McAfee (Programmer, Businessman) : $1 million
Mark Yusko (Morgan Creek Capital) : $250,000
🚀 Bitcoin Maxis with No Price Targets
Bill Miller (Billionaire Investor)
Miller has stated that Bitcoin could go much higher, without a precise target. He supports the belief that it will outperform traditional financial assets over the long term.
Paul Tudor Jones (Hedge Fund Manager)
Jones has likened Bitcoin to an early investment in tech stocks like Apple AAPL , implying that it has significant potential for value increase.
Stanley Druckenmiller (Billionaire Investor)
Druckenmiller has suggested that Bitcoin could be a "store of value" better than gold and expects its price to rise dramatically.
Jack Dorsey (CEO of Block, Co-Founder of Twitter)
Dorsey, another devoted Bitcoin proponent, hasn’t given an exact price prediction but has expressed strong belief that Bitcoin will become the currency of the internet, suggesting a massive increase in value.
🧸 The Permabears: Those Who Want to See Bitcoin Burn
Joseph Stiglitz - In contrast to the bullish predictions, Nobel Prize-winning Economist Stiglitz has argued that Bitcoin could be “worth just $100 by 2028.”
Kenneth Rogoff - Harvard professor and former chief economist at the IMF, Rogoff claims Bitcoin is more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 by 2028.
Nouriel Roubini - An economist known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Roubini has harshly criticized Bitcoin as a bubble and a "scam."
Bill Gates - The co-founder of Microsoft has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin and its ability to provide real value to the economy.
Warren Buffett - The legendary investor has famously referred to Bitcoin as "rat poison squared," expressing concerns about its lack of intrinsic value and speculative bubble characteristics.
Jamie Dimon - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin, calling it a fraud and stating that it has no value.
Peter Schiff - An outspoken critic of Bitcoin and a proponent of gold, Schiff argues that Bitcoin is a bubble and that it will eventually collapse in value.
Larry Fink - The CEO of BlackRock has indicated he's no fan of Bitcoin, viewing it more as a speculative asset than a legitimate currency. More recently, after BlackRock launched the biggest spot Bitcoin ETF , Fink has warmed up to Bitcoin saying it’s a “legit financial instrument.”
Now, over to you: What’s your take? Is Bitcoin on a rocket ship to $1 million, or are the critics right to be cautious? Drop your thoughts—and favorite Bitcoin predictions—in the comments below!
AUDCAD Descending Triangle: Key Support Levels to WatchAUDCAD moved up from 0.9060 to reach 0.9375, and now forming a descending triangle pattern. This pattern usually appears when the price is making lower highs, meaning sellers are pushing it down, but there’s still a solid support level holding it steady, around 0.9165.
Currently, AUDCAD is trading at 0.9175, and it seems likely to keep dropping. The first level to watch is 0.9110, if the price breaks below this, it could continue down to 0.9060, where the previous rally began.
If sellers keep control, we might see more downward movement. But if support holds, there’s a chance for a bounce.
Dow Jones Futures Bullish Move Into Resistance 450 Ticks 10 to 1I will be looking for a Long entry with a limit order at the price of 42,420 which is the High price of the September FOMC. I will use a 50 tick stop and target the resistance level of 42,975.
I believe this week will be bullish as the down move from earlier was counter trend. I closed my short position on Friday with the expectation that price will bounce off of September's FOMC High.
Sunday, price opened up with a fat bullish bar and gapped up 0.30% right out of the gate. This tells me that they are going for shorts back up to grab stops and retrace.
The space between resistance is a huge clue for me that this is where they are targeting. The 42,975 price was used as support multiple times but not as resistance.
The three pushes into the September's FOMC High indicates the down move may be the end and the move opposite is in way. Since the high was made during the September FOMC release, it has not been used as a solid support level. It was only used as a mean reversion level that price has been mean reverting around.
Bitcoin Prints the First Golden Cross in Almost Exactly One YearWe'll have to see if it sticks but BTC has just printed a golden cross. The crazy thing is, the last golden cross occurred on October 29th 2023! This golden cross was 2 days short of exactly hitting the 1 year mark. We all know what happened after the last golden cross, over the next 4.5 months the price increased by over 116%.
If you take the time to study Bitcoin's price history, it is very clear that Bitcoin has been running in 4-year market cycles. This is especially true for the last two market cycles. From bear market bottom to the next bear market bottom, the 2015 to 2018 market cycle was 1432 days in length, and the length of the 2018 to 2022 market cycle was 1438 days. Even the elapsed times between events (bottom to halving, halving to peak, and peak to bottom) during each of these cycles is very consistent.
Obviously, this market cycle trend doesn't have to continue, but I believe that it will, at least for this cycle. If that is the case then I wouldn't expect the post halving bull market to begin until late October or November of this year. Looking back at the previous two cycles, the 2016 bull market started 259 days after the halving, and the 2020 bull market started 149 days after the halving. We are now 192 days past the halving that occurred on April 19th.
There is always a chance that I am totally wrong and the peak in March was the peak for this market cycle and it will be all down hill from here. But, I believe the probability of that is very low. But this is just how I am approaching this market cycle, every investor needs to do their own research and make their own decisions. I also make my decisions based on my long-term view and long time horizon.
Crude Oil Smoked Again. Will the downtrend continue?Hey, guys. Noticed this evening Crude Oil is down yet again. In this video, taking a look at the technicals and whether this downtrend will continue or not. Oil is in a little bit of a confusing spot, but there is certainly good reason to think the weakness will continue. Hope this video will give you a closer look at the Oil chart and provide helpful information as you develop your thesis around this asset. Will the downtrend continue? Will we get a counter trend move? It will be interesting to watch this develop to be sure! NYMEX:CL1!
Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Short-term EURUSD ideaAfter yesterday's better than expected flash PMIs from Germany, we saw EURUSD finding some buying interest. Let's see if we can get a larger correction to the upside.
EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Apple Calls Be careful!!!News: Apple will be reporting earnings on Thursday October 31.
Apple has a high of 237.49 that was created on Tuesday October 15, 2024. This high created has topped the previous high 237.23 created on Monday July 15, 24.
Pattern we are trading is is a ascending triangle tu the up side on the daily and 4hr time frame.
Every pull back has created a Higher Low (HL) which continues bullish momentum.
In the ascending triangle pattern, i have created two trendlines indicating support.
The dash line being the weak and the solid line being the strongest.
Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionAs we head into the new week, gold prices remain resilient, fueled by heightened Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty that keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets. Despite dollar strength and recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has surged over 32% this year, reflecting sustained demand in the face of global instability.
In this analysis, we cover critical areas for buyers and sellers alike, focusing on structural patterns, market psychology, and potential trade opportunities you won’t want to miss. Whether you're watching the price action or setting up entry points, these insights will equip you with a clear roadmap for the week ahead.
Will gold continue its strong performance, or could a new catalyst shift the trend?
📌 Stay tuned as we navigate the next big moves in the Gold market!
#goldprice #goldtrading #investing #commodities #marketanalysis #tradingstrategy #goldforecast #geopolitics #election2024 #safehaven #financialmarkets #forex #daytrading #swingtrading #middleeast #usdollar #economicuncertainty📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NUBUSDT Looks BullishLooking at NUBUSDT , let's do a top-down analysis starting from the Weekly down to the 4Hourly timeframe to see where price is headed.
Weekly Timeframe
For the first time since the listing of NUBUSDT on Gate.io exchange, we're starting to see what looks like a break out of the down trend which lasted for about 24 weeks since its ATH (All Time High) in April 22nd 2024.
The current corrective move on the weekly timeframe, which runs counter to the prevailing trend, is both healthy and expected as it aligns with the natural wave structure of the market, where movements typically follow an impulse-corrective-impulse pattern.
After each impulsive move, a corrective phase is expected, followed by another impulse originating from the correction to confirm the trend. In this case, we should be expecting price to break the previous Weekly LH (Lower High) to establish the trend. Anything short of this means, price is not yet ready for any up trend.
Daily Timeframe
One interesting thing about the Daily timeframe price action on this coin is that since September 5th 2024, we've been having series of HH (Higher Highs) and HL (Higher Lows). These are the type of structures I look out for when looking to take a buy position. The daily price action is also in confluence with the weekly were we saw a 24 Weeks break of trend line, all hinting a possible start of an uptrend in the long term.
The price level we are currently is an interesting one as price seems to have broken the daily trend line. The question now is, would this trend line hold or break? The truth is, not even the coin creators can answer that question. The only thing we can do at this point is check what the price is doing so we know what to expect and what to do if our expectation comes to fruition.
Let's look at this level critically. Though price seems to have broken the daily trendline, it did not close below it. This is very important as it shows rejection, indicating buyers are willing to defend that area.
Another observation would be the inverted hammer daily candle at the trendline. This candle pattern usually signifies price reversal especially when it appears at an area of interest like this one.
This type of area is where I would be looking for an entry, but first I'll need to see a break of structure from the current corrective wave to take any buy position, so let's see what the 4 Hourly timeframe would say in the next section.
I will only be bearish on this coin if price breaks and stays below the Daily HL (Higher Low) at 0.00978 price. As long as we're above that price line, I'll be dreaming Lambo.
4 Hourly Timeframe
Now on the 4 Hourly, we can see falling wedge which is a reversal pattern. It's interesting because of where this falling wedge is forming. Looking at the price structure of the 4 Hourly timeframe we're in a downtrend market. So for me to take a position I would love to see a break of the 4 Hourly Lower High (LH) and a correction after that. It's in the corrective phase of the 4 Hourly that I would look for my entry signal.
That said, if the 4 Hourly price action is not able to break the current 4 Hourly LH at 0.02188 then I'll not be interested in any buy position
Note: I do not own NUB coin, and not planning to own it either. This here is just for education and learning purpose.
My trading rule is simple, don't take position based on what you anticipate price will do, take position only when price does what you anticipate and presents you a point of entry.
Catalyst of the Bull Rally: "Retail"Understanding the Past
When we examine the number of retail Bitcoin investors, we see that it stood at 43 million in January 2023. From that point onward, the number of individual investors increased steadily over 12 months, rising by 22% to reach 52.4 million, prior to the acceptance of Spot ETFs. Following the approval of Spot ETFs, this figure saw a slight decline, reaching 51.6 million by the end of February 2024.
However, the "ETF Bull" rally, led by the momentum of Spot ETFs, pushed the retail investor count upward, peaking in June 2024 at 54.14 million. After this peak, a downward trend in retail investor numbers began.
The Impact of Retail Investors on Price
Historical data reveals a close relationship between the growth in the number of retail investors and Bitcoin’s price movement.
Returning to January 2023, we observe that as the retail investor count rose significantly, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 300% in the same period. However, after reaching its peak in June 2024, the retail investor count plateaued, and Bitcoin’s price also struggled to reach new highs thereafter.
Conclusion
The rise in the number of retail investors remains a crucial catalyst for Bitcoin bulls. If this trend sees a strong resurgence, with retail investor interest growing substantially once again, Bitcoin's price could be poised to test new highs. Just as in the past, retail interest could provide the needed tailwind for Bitcoin; hence, renewed growth in the retail investor base may offer a vital opportunity for the next bull rally.
Thanks for reading.
Tracking Economy with this Ratio – Copper vs Gold RatioThe Fed is using the Copper / Gold ratio in tracking economy and its growth.
Currently, the copper / gold ratio is still trending downward, which indicates that the economy may not be recovering that soon.
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
$SOUN :Is Sound Hound AI the next small cap to SURGE?! 98% move!NASDAQ:SOUN
Is Sound Hound AI the next small cap to SURGE?!
I believe this stock is gearing up for a 98% move higher! So, let's dive into my video below, which talks about the NASDAQ:SOUN stock charting setup for a SURGE to the upside and how it meets my 5/5 trading setup! (My personal trading strategy)
Not financial advice.
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Comment what stock you want to see charting analysis on below.
DXY Descending Triangle predicts Bitcoin RallyIntroduction
The simplest and most powerful long term relationship or indicator we have for the price of bitcoin is the DXY (the dollar index against a basket of other main currencies comprised of US trade partners). Therefore long term chart formations in the DXY can help crypto traders or investors make very profitable long term moves. Those that ignore this inverse relationship do so at their peril.
Current analysis
A pain view of the top chart shows two fat pairs of arrows that show when bitcoin went down and DXY went up. It also has two skinny arrows that show when DXY falls Bitcoin rises. Clear and irrefutable. What is up for debate right now is if the descending triangle I note is valid. There are several good DXY ideas out there right now but none seem to have taken this wider view: www.tradingview.com
DXY Zoom In
Everything is basically on the daily chart. DXY is actually at its 4th lower high and this current high is stalling right at the previous support of the double top of April to June, 2024. The indicators show clear hidden bearish divergence. For those that need a review, here is the simple divergence primer:
Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
Hidden bearish divergence suggests the downtrend will continue and DXY will continue to fall.
Weekly DXY
Guess what? The weekly DXY looks like hell as well. This rising trend line was previously acting as support and is now acting as resistance.
Conclusion
I see no reason why the powerful and clear inverse relationship between dxy and bitcoin should not continue. Basically everything in the “anti-fiat” or “weak dollar” categories should act predictably while this descending triangle plays itself out. This trade or posture doesn’t require fancy indicators or complex theory. Just basic charting supported by some minimalistic indicators to add a bit of richness to the technical analysis and fundamental relationship between Bitcoin and the DXY.
I am long crypto in one form or another. I have a coupe of rotations planed out for the next year. Wish me luck. Please see linked ideas for some other ideas that inform my current thinking.
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Bitcoin Update: The Last Level Before...Over the weekend Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD topped out at a level which has multiple confluences. In this post I will break them down one by one and talk about what happens next...
Perhaps the most common level noted by commentators is the Trend Line/Expanding Wedge/Inverted Triangle. I personally do not put much faith in these lines or patterns. The reason I do not is because they are often arbitrary. They can be drawn from any of the different highs and lows to support a person's narrative. As a trader I want clearly defined and objective levels. That being said... everyone draws this line and so it can become a self fulfilling prophesy.
The additional levels give it more validity:
The elephant on the chart holding down price is (and has for a long time been) the prior All Time High from 2021. This important level has been haunting Bitcoin's much hoped for RIP for years and it continues to do so. Price has hit it again this weekend and stalled.
Lastly, the more nuanced but important level is the final Volume Profile zone. Again, price hit and stalled at it this weekend. There are no more true significant levels of prior price and volume between this level and the All Time High.
So what happens now? It is quite Boolean by my experience... a Yes/No with high probability. If THIS level (being discussed in this article) is broken then there is a very high probability that price will rocket from 69k to 74k as there are no more levels of resistance within that small range and the momentum should carry it up to the next level with certainty. Then, at the All Time High, price will certainly respond with another hold or a break. There is very good bullish trading of this small range. After the All Time High there will need to be a solid, confirmed breakout. To me this means a Weekly closing candle well above it. At that point... sky is the limit for Bitcoin.
Otherwise, price holds here and the long and expanding consolidation continues as well as falls back to the ETF launch level of 43k. This is what I am betting on.
Money where my mouth is:
I am talking my book. I still remain long term short bitcoin using AMEX:BITI (the inverse ETF). I have been watching these developments closely to determine if my position is still valid. It has been on the cusp of being invalid but still remains my thesis. Sunday night I entered additional futures contracts short at the level.
Trade wisely!