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Carnival Pushes a Key LevelCarnival has been stuck in the doldrums since last summer, but now some traders may think it’s ready to cruise higher. The first pattern on today’s chart is Friday’s last price of $12.18. While the level was slightly below February’s peak, it was the highest weekly close in a year. That could make traders expect a breakout if CCL manages to inch further upward. Second, there could be signs of longer-term bottoming since last summer. The stock initially held its pandemic levels from March 2020 before proceeding to a new multidecade low near $6. It then made a series of higher monthly lows (marked in blue). Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in February and has remained there since. Finally, the debt ceiling has been resolved. Federal Reserve officials like Patrick Harker and Phillip Jefferson have also spoken in favor of leaving rates unchanged next week. That kind of macro environment may favor leveraged cyclicals like CCL. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:CCL
by TradeStation
4
Despite a strong week, IWM remains in trading rangePrimary Chart: IWM / Russell 2000 Weekly Timeframe The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. This is why the Russell 2000 is important for traders and investors to follow to maintain a deeper understanding of the broader US equity markets. Despite a very strong weekly close for IWM, its price remains in the lower half of its trading range. This trading range has contained price for the past 1.5 years, since the topping pattern's support (at the upper blue rectangle) broke down in January 2022. Unlike other major US indices like the Nasdaq 100, IWM has continued to struggle and remains well below its August 2022 and January / February 2023 highs. Two months ago, in a recent post titled " Something is Rotten in the State of Markets ," IWM's underperformance of SPX provided a basis for discussion as to why US equity markets may remain unhealthy despite the bullish price action YTD (see link below). A strong and long-lasting bull market should show signs of broad participation. Many breadth indicators have shown very narrow breadth. It's not a surprise, in fact, that SPX's rally and upside performance has been driven by 5 to 10 SPX names, with the other 490-495 flat, lagging, or up weakly. Supplementary Chart A This previous April 10 analysis displayed a hypothetical price path intended to reflect the possibility of more sideways and choppy price action in the intermediate term. The choppy price action has largely unfolded as expected (click the play / refresh arrow on the prior post from April 10, 2023). In fact, IWM's price at the time of the prior post was at $173.89, and a month later on May 8 it had closed almost at the same level around $172.72. Now IWM appears to be breaking above the recent trading range. Major levels of resistance appear on the Primary Chart as Fibonacci levels (the .618 retracement and the .50 retracement, which is not technically a Fibonacci proportion) as well as the anchored VWAP from the November 2021 ATH. How price responds to these levels will be important to watch in coming weeks especially after June 16, 2023 OPEX—a quad witching event. It is notable that IWM trades far below its major ATH VWAP from November 2021. Compare how IWM's price trades relative to this VWAP (labeled on the Primary Chart above) with how SPY's price trades relative to its ATH VWAP. SPY's VWAP anchored to its ATH is shown in Supplementary chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Finally, a relative chart of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 is helpful to examine these two major US equity indices and how IWM has performed YTD relative to the SPY / SPX. See Supplementary Chart C below. This relative chart shows IWM still in a downtrend relative to SPY. And it still shows that IWM vs. SPY remains below major resistance. Given that IWM is a leading index at times, it will be interesting to see whether what happens to the major resistance on this relative chart that was broken in early April 2023. Will it hold? Supplementary Chart C In summary, the small-cap stocks in the US equity market are lagging despite putting in a strong weekly performance this week of +3.33%. The primary trend in small caps remains sideways by any measure. Will IWM play catch up to the other main US indices like S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ )? No one knows for sure. But the liquidity problems plaguing the US economy tend to show up in the weakest names first, which usually are also the smallest names. Could IWM's underperformance be a sign of this liquidity stress? Or will it catch up to confirm that the current rally in NDX and SPY are perfectly healthy under the hood and headed to new all-time highs? Stay tuned. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
25
Stock picks for 2023 Hey everyone, I thought I would do a fun little post about .. *Gasp* investments. I know, who would’ve thought, stocks as investments? Nuts, right?! But seriously, as a day trader who really just disdains swinging, I have actually slowly started to dip my toes back into the investment sphere. I also have a bit of a watch list of my top picks that I am slowly trying to accumulate. So I thought I would share those things that I am watching and give a brief little description of my thoughts on them. Please keep in mind, this is not at all investment advice. The two things in life I have horrendous track record with and a general lack of insight into are relationships and growth stocks. I pick both of them very poorly. But here it goes anyway. My top watches: NYSE:ERJ If you follow me, you will know I am a fan of aerospace tickers. BA is my top pick, but ERJ is one that I actually recently have bought some shares of. ERJ is a very serious contender and competitor for Airbus (OTC:EADSY) and Boeing (NYSE:BA). At under 15$ a share, to me it’s a steal for a company that has great potential and has already proven to be a reliable competitor to 2 behemoths (Airbus and Boeing). Bombardier ( OTC:BOMBF or TSX:BBD.B ) On track with my aviation obsession, Bombardier is also a top pick for me. They are no longer doing the commercial plane stuff, but they are still producing business jets and do still have quite a big fleet of regional aircraft in service in Canada, the USA and Europe. They also are involved in rail transportation. They are traded on the OTC market in the US and the TSX in Canada. A solid foreign investment for non-Canadians and a solid local investment for Canadians in my opinion. Canadian National Railway ( NYSE:CNI or TSX:CNR ) This behemoth is a very solid investment, I can say that quite confidently. With it pretty much dominating the rail transportation business in North America, you really can’t go wrong. Great money flow, solid company that is constantly expanding, including buying other rail transportation companies in the US. Also, the chart is in a very interesting place. It has recently dropped below its 200 MA, but its on some pretty solid support. Iridium ( NASDAQ:IRDM ) I love this company. I first experienced them as a child on an Alaskan fishing trip with my father with their clunky af phones. Interestingly, the pone we used in the 90s look identical to their modern phones: They have recently exploded as they have set their goal on introducing the IOT and expanding internet services. The concern of course is Starlink; however, the infrastructure for telecommunications (i.e. cellphones) is much different from internet and Starlink, and more specifically, Elon has not expressed any interest in trying to enter this market. It also would not be an economically feasible feat to transition the Starlink constellation to provide phone coverage in addition to internet coverage as the function is actually quite different. This is one of the reasons I presume we are seeing Irdium explode to the upside after years of being kind of neglected. I am personally waiting for some pullback and will be a buyer. Kraken Robotics ($TSX:PNG) Release the KRAKKEN! It’s a tiny little Canadian robotics company with huge potential. They specialize in deep sea robotics. They already hold multiple contracts with military institutions in Canada, Europe and the USA. And all for under 1$ CAD! They also are popular among deep sea oil companies. I will be honest here, I do expect this company to probably be bought out by someone at some point because of their potential and their very niche and under-serviced area of expertise with their huge potential. But either way, definitely a company I see a future for. I have been a holder for some time on this company. LMT ( NYSE:LMT ) What can I say, I am a sucker for aviation and military stuff. And also, I can't have my absolute favourite stock Boeing without LMT. LMT goes without saying, it’s a solid investment. Its devoid of the market drama we see and it is in its own world. It’s a company that really doesn’t need an introduction. At a hefty price of over 400$ a share, its not a stock I would recommend to novice investors, but for those who want to invest in a sure thing, I think it’s a fair bet. GNRC ( NYSE:GNRC ) Ah GNRC. If you are a semi-long term follower you will know this is another stock I stan. And also proves that I sure can pick ‘em, with GNRC doing a whole lot of tanking in 2022 and a whole NOT lot of recovery. But it really seems to have bottomed at this point. It has been downgraded by analysts but its showing incredible resiliency. They predominately deal with generators and electrical stuff but have also recently introduced solar generation and an identical product to TSLA’s Powerwall that is already commercially available. Pembina Pipeline ( TSX:PPL ) An oil/energy stock out of Canada. I like it because it pays 0.21C dividends each month (CAD). A solid investment for TFSA’s and RRSPs/IRAs that generate consistent dividend returns and is a solid company with solid fundamentals. And that concludes my watchlist! Obviously there are others, but these are some of my favs. There are obviously some TSX tickers here and that is actually strategic. Throughout the 2022 decline, my TSX investments dropped, but my returns remained no less than 7% throughout the entire year and that Is with consistent contributions up until around 8 months ago when I halted temporarily. Regardless of whether you are Canadian or not, it is something to consider investing in foreign markets as a hedge against local markets. I personally invest in both TSX and NYSE equities for exactly the reason of 2022. Diversification of stocks is important, but its even better if you can diversify markets as well! These are my thoughts. Again, not advice, just want to share my thoughts and some of my fav tickers. Safe trades and safe investments to you all!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
4
Eli Lilly Finally Pulls BackDrug developer Eli Lilly shot to new highs earlier in the year, and now it’s finally pulled back. The first pattern on today’s chart is the high-volume bullish candle on May 3. The move followed positive Phase 3 data for donanemab, its potential Alzheimer's disease treatment. Second, prices are trying to hold the rising 21-day exponential moving average. That may indicate its short-term uptrend remains in effect. Third, LLY apparently got ahead of itself last week and was unable to hold a new all-time high. But its quick pullback dragged stochastics to an oversold level where some buyers may feel more comfortable with the risk/reward. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:LLY
by TradeStation
5
Potential swing trade short on EUR/GBP EUR/GBP has just suffered its worst month in ten, thanks to renewed bets of a more-hawkish BOE and soft inflation reports across Europe. Volumes increased during the recent leg lower to show fresh bearish bets being placed and the OBV (on balance volume) has also confirmed the move lower on prices. Prices are consolidating near the cycle lows on the 1-hour chart within a potential bear-flag pattern, and the flag projects an approximate target near the December low / daily S2 pivot point. A weak inflation report for the Eurozone later today could help send prices directly low. However, should prices instead recycle higher first (which seems plausible given the magnitude of the bearish move) then bears could look to fade into the daily pivot point ~0.8610 or the volume cluster around 0.825. Given the strength of the downtrend, we’d view a retracement higher as an opportunity to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
Short
by CityIndex
12
Bitcoin: Could we see a new push down to support?Today's focus: Bitcoin Pattern – LH, leg lower. Possible targets – 26,330 Support – 26,330 Resistance – 27,890 Today’s update is on Bitcoin as sellers have started making a solid move against the leg higher we have seen recently. Overall today, money has been moving out of risk currencies and into safe havens. This includes crypto, which has been treated as a hedge in recent history. Did we see a new LH set up this week, and will today’s resistance hold after that sign set up a new move back to support? If buyers can get back control, we may still see the leg higher live, but for now, we are watching if selling is going to accelerate. We feel a hold above 27,000 is a key for buyers, and a move back to or through 26,330 support will be a win for sellers. Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDShort
by Eightcap
7
Will EURJPY find buyers at market?EURJPY - 24h expiry We are trading at oversold extremes. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. The trend of higher lows is located at 146.13. We prefer to consider the medium term trend and expect buying interest to support as prices move lower. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 148.90 level. We look to Buy at 148.90 (stop at 148.50) Our profit targets will be 149.90 and 150.10 Resistance: 151.40 / 152.95 / 155.20 Support: 148.40 / 146.05 / 144.20 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
2
A Trader’s Playbook; breakouts and momentum finally workingWith month-end flows in mind, and as the market reacts to the weekend debt ceiling agreement and the prospects for ease of passage through the House and Senate this week, the USD remains at the centre of the universe. The prospect of the Fed hiking in June will get further close attention, where we contrast how US data stacks up relative to the data flow in other economic heavyweights. We look at the strong repricing of the number of cuts in the US by year-end 2023, which now stand at just 8bp (we were recently pricing 80bp of cuts this year) and we watch the US exceptionalism story, with Chinese economic data and equity performance getting huge interest. The USD rallied for five consecutive days last week, partly driven by US 2yr Treasuries, which gained 29bp on the week - taking the tally of consecutive gains (in yield) to 11 days. Only the MXN stood tall vs the USD, while the NZD, SEK and AUD lost between 2% and 3.7%. USDCNH remains central to the broad USD flows, and as the USD gains vs the yuan, we see the USD stage a broad rally vs G10 FX – USD shorts will want this cross to head lower this week. We see bearish range breaks in the HK50 and CHINAH, and we ask whether price action can really start to trend lower. This bearish flow has partly been a Chinese data story, but the strong USD and higher yields on offer is causing capital to exit these markets. The USD is central to the price action this week, but do we chase this lower or is the risk the authorities step in front of this weakness? While China has been a source of concern – and a solid trading opportunity – the AI thematic kicks further. There is a lot of love in this space now and its red hot, but is it too hot? The NAS100 is a momentum powerhouse, and one questions if we can see the Feb/March 2022 highs (at 15,265) come into play in the next few weeks. It’s hard to bet against mega-cap tech/AI plays/semi’s but they are the market. The NAS100 is an incredible chart though and helping my long NAS100 / short EUSTX50 trade nicely. Anyhow as the flow of information shifts, its good to see some movement, range breaks and some momentum kick into our core markets. Marquee data points for the week ahead US nonfarm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the NFP report is the marquee event risk of the week, where the outcome could influence the pause/hike debate for the June FOMC. The market eyes 190k net jobs created, with the economist’s range of estimates set between 235k and 100k. The unemployment rate is eyed at 3.5% (from 3.4%), with Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) at 4.4% YoY/0.3% MoM. The form guide suggests a higher probability that we see a hot payrolls, with the last 13 reports printing above consensus. I think the market knows this only too well and will likely be positioned for 220k-250k. If the U/E comes in at 3.4% I think the market increases the prospect of a June Fed hike closer to 60-70%, which should lift the USD. EU CPI (Thurs 19:00 AEST) – The market expects the headline CPI estimate at 6.3%, which would be a fair drop from the prior print of 7%, although this is largely driven by energy-related base effects. Core CPI is eyed at 5.5% (from 5.6%) – a hike in the June ECB meeting is fully priced, but the barrier to a 50bp increment is high – we look further out the rates ‘curve’, where we could see expectations of hikes in future months being priced in/out. EUR longs look best vs SEK and JPY at this juncture, while EURUSD will also be looking closely at China’s data this week and how USDCNH reacts. US ISM Manufacturing (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the market looks for the diffusion index to come in at 47.0 (from 47.1). A reading above 50 (above 50 shows expansion, below is contraction) would shock markets and promote USD buyers, with further selling (higher yields) in US 2yr Treasuries. The market has seen this data point below 50 since November, so it would not be shocked by another month-on-month contraction. The bigger market’s reaction likely comes on a hotter print, although the sub-components of the report– new orders and prices paid – could also be influential. US JOLTS job openings (Thurs 00:00 AEST) – while the NFP report is the more influential labour market read, the market expects a further decline in job openings with the consensus at 9.439m (from 9.59m). The jobs openings report is losing its influence on market pricing but with the labour market still a reason for the Fed to maintain a hawkish outlook, the outcome could influence market pricing for the June Fed meeting, but we’d need to see a big miss/beat. China manufacturing and services PMI (Wed 11:45 AEST) – the market has seen Chinese data coming in consistently below expectations of late and that has had a big impact on global markets – the USD has benefited greatly vs G10 FX, with USDCNH marching higher. The market expects manufacturing to print at 49.5 (from 49.2) and services at 55.0 (56.4) on the diffusion index – a read above 50.0 in the manufacturing print could be a relief and see some covering of short China market (and proxies). This is a data point not just for HK50, CN50 and CHINAH traders, but also for those who trade copper, EUR, and AUD too. Australia April (monthly) CPI the market sees the April headline CPI print at 6.4% (from 6.3%). With Aussie rates pricing 6bp of hikes in the June RBA meeting (a 25% chance of a hike), a number above 6.6% could see that pricing closer to 10bp with the market sensing a hike could be very much on the table. Scope for AUDJPY to push into 92.70, with AUDNZD also seeing good upside momentum. Holiday trading hours (both Monday) - Memorial Day (US) and Spring Bank Holiday (UK) Central bank speakers: Fed speakers – Barkin, Collins, Harker, Jefferson BoE speakers – Catherine Mann (Wed 23:15 AEST) – one for the GBP traders RBA – Gov Lowe (Wed 09:00 AEST) ECB speakers – De Cos, Holzmann, Villeroy, Visco, Knot, ECB President Lagarde (Friday 19:30 AEST)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
4
Demystifying Corn Demand, Supply, and SeasonalityCorn is a versatile crop. It is used in a variety of ways. Corn is a major source of food for humans and animals. It is also an input in industrial products, such as ethanol and plastics. According to the FAO, in the past year, over 1.1 billion tons of corn was produced worldwide. Gross production value stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. Previously , we highlighted that a bumper US harvest is expected to send corn prices tumbling. This paper is a primer on Corn. It describes demand and supply dynamics and delves into the usage of the crop, its price behaviour and seasonality, among others. Corn is an integral part of human diet. It is consumed both as staple food and in processed products. It is also an important animal feed source. Corn is used in the production of ethanol fuel, plastics, adhesives, and pharmaceutical products. It is also a primary ingredient in alcoholic beverages. SEASONALITY IN CORN PRICES The world’s largest corn producer is the US, representing 32% of production, followed by China with 23%. In October, harvest season in the US overlaps that in China, pushing corn prices to their lowest during the year. Based on data observed over the last 17-years, the seasonal impact of harvest in the US and Chinese on corn prices is clear. Corn price pop through the first half of the year and then plunge through Q3 until start of Q4 when the crops in the US, China, and Brazil commence harvesting. Based on front-month corn futures, the average prices of corn have ranged between 200 USc/bushel to 800 USc/bushel. Over the last 17-years, with the exceptions of six years (2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2021 and 2022), Corn prices tend to be stable through the year underpinned by stable demand and robust steady supply. However, external shocks such as the global financial crisis, pandemic, and the adverse weather conditions cause outsized impact leading to large price volatility. Based on CME front month corn futures prices, the heat map below shows an upward trend in corn prices from December until May which is the period immediately after US and China harvesting seasons. This phase also represents the corn planting season. As harvesting begins, corn prices tend to plunge from June until September before starting to recover. On average, based on the analysis into corn prices during the last 17 years, February, October, December, and April are months when corn prices turn bullish. While corn prices are most bearish during the months of June, July, and March. As corn is a hard crop which can grow in various climatic conditions, most countries have ample domestic production to match their needs with few relying on imports. Consequently, marginal demand from importers can have an outsized impact on prices. China is the largest importer despite huge domestic production. Other major importers include Brazil, Mexico, North Africa, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. WHAT DRIVES CORN DEMAND? Demand for corn is chiefly from animal feed followed by food and industrial use. Corn’s high protein and carbohydrate content makes it suitable animal feed for cattle, pigs, and chickens. Unsurprisingly, the US, representing 26% of global consumption, and China, representing 25% of global consumption, are also the largest consumers of corn due to their large livestock populations. The quantity of corn used for feed has remained largely unchanged ~5 billion bushels, since the late 2000’s. Another major demand driver is Ethanol production. Ethanol has many industrial uses, the foremost of which is gasoline blending. Ethanol complements gasoline as they are mixed to create a cleaner burning and higher performing transportation fuel. The demand for corn-ethanol mirrors gasoline demand. This year, the IEA expects 2% higher demand for Crude Oil and its by-products. Consequently, the USDA expects ethanol production to rise by the same margin. Corn supply used for Ethanol production rose sharply in the late 2000’s but has since plateaued around 40%. At the same time, share of corn consumption for feed declined from 60% to 40%. This was accommodated through higher corn production. Although not as significant as feed and ethanol, demand for human consumption of corn is another major contributor. Humans consume corn directly as cereal and in its processed forms. Corn can be processed into multiple by-products including Corn Flour, Corn Starch, Corn Syrup, Corn Oil, and Dextrose. Corn is present in most foods consumed by humans in one form or another. Corn flour like wheat flour is used for cooking and baking. Corn Starch is used as a thickening agent and binder for food and pharmaceutical production. Corn Syrup (also high-fructose corn syrup) is a cheap and effective sweetener created from corn starch used in the production of processed food as well as beverages such as Coca Cola. Dextrose is a sugar substitute used as an artificial sweetener and preservative. CORN INVENTORIES ENSURE SUPPLY YEAR ROUND Although corn supply is cyclical based on harvest levels, demand remains strong year-round. Corn inventories play a huge role in ensuring availability even months after the harvest. Excess corn that is not consumed in the year is carried over to the next to ensure that a baseline supply is always available. These carryover stocks are managed carefully by the USDA using regular demand and supply estimates that it publishes in a monthly WASDE report. Changes in carryover stock mirror supply-demand trends. The USDA generally maintains carryover stocks between 1-2 billion bushels. Last year, the US ended the year with 1.2 billion bushels of corn, sharply lower from the 1.9 billion bushels in 2020-21. However, a bumper harvest this year signals that carryover stocks from the current harvest season and marketing year are expected to surge 56% to 2.2 billion bushels. CORN SUPPLY, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND PRICES IN 2023 Corn prices in 2023 have broken their seasonal trend with bumper harvest expected. In their general seasonal trend, as seen over the past 15 years, corn prices rise during the first half of the year as supplies from the previous year’s harvest start to get depleted. Prices fall sharply following the start of harvest season. However, corn’s price since the start of 2023 shows a divergence from this seasonal trend. Prices are sharply (-12%) lower YTD. This is due to strong planting in the US as well as weak import demand. USDA expects a record US corn harvest of 15.3 billion bushels this year. This is expected to lead to the highest levels of carryover stock since 2016-17. China’s imports and domestic production is expected to rebound sharply but is largely expected to be compensated for by huge carryover stocks in Brazil. Brazil is expected to be the largest corn exporter followed by the US. As such, harvests in both countries should be closely watched to identify shifts in projections. In case harvest in either country is lower than expected, it would not be able to match import demand from China which would lead to higher prices. Overall, USDA expects 27% lower average price for corn in 2023 at USc 480/bushel. This will lead to far higher global trade and consequently higher trading volumes in Corn futures. USDA’s WASDE REPORT IS AN IMPORANT RESOURCE FOR CORN TRADERS As stated, the USDA’s WASDE report is a critically important resource for investors. Specifically, the May WASDE report is vital for Corn as this is the start of the planting season and estimates in this report form the basis for the next marketing year’s outlook for major crops such as Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans. WASDE includes an outlook summary for each crop as well as statistics measuring the estimated demand, supply, exports, and carryover stocks for major countries as well as different regions within the US . The 2023 May WASDE report showed expectations of record global corn production as well as consumption. However, consumption is expected to lag production leading to larger ending stocks compared to last year. With higher ending stocks, supply of corn is expected to remain stable year-round. This is bearish for corn prices. Understanding the supply-demand characteristics in the WASDE report can equip investors with a long-term price outlook. Still, it is equally important to keep track of the market on an ongoing basis due to the myriad of factors affecting price as highlighted above. A summary of these is also given below. SIX KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, the following key takeaways summarise this primer: 1. Corn is a versatile crop. It is a major source of food for humans and animals. 2. Gross production value of corn stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. 3. US and China are the world's largest corn producers and consumers, representing over half of global corn production & consumption. 4. Corn prices are heavily influenced by the harvest season in US and China which overlaps between September and October. 5. Major demand sources for corn are animal feed, industrial use (especially ethanol production), and human consumption . 6. May WASDE report showed expectations of record production and consumption of corn and higher ending stocks, leading to lower prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mintdotfinance
4
Hey Siri, why is NVIDIA Mooning?The simple answer is AI. Amongst other things, but currently AI is the latest Buzzword on everyone's lips! I recently posted a stream on how you can use chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator (see below) There are so many possibilities with AI and we are still early, very early! NVIDIA stock closed near a trillion-dollar market value this week as shares surged 25% following a better than expected earnings report from an artificial intelligence boom globally. This puts NVIDIA at around 160% plus on the year in terms of it's stock price. This in turn attracts late comers to the party. Of course, they were already on the up n up from growth since the Pandemic. The Covid outbreak and lockdowns around the world meant gaming took off in a big way. Cloud adoption surged and crypto enthusiasts turned to its chips for mining coins. To make things 'better' Goldman Sachs analysts now estimate that U.S. investment in AI could approach 1% of the country's economic output by 2030. All green lights for AI and NVIDIA. But the reason this tech company, more than others right now is soaring? Well, did you know??? The large computers that process data and power generative AI run on powerful chips called graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia produces about 80% of GPUs, according to analysts. What else is there to know? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
GOLD - Price can make movement up and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 After rising channel, price made upward impulse to $2030 level, thereby breaking past level. Next, Gold bounced of this level, made correction, and rose higher to resistance level. But price at once fell below and entered to flat, after which Gold made upward impulse again. Reaching $2065 point, price started to fall inside from falling channel. In channel, Gold broke two support levels and even fell below support area, but at once backed up to area. Now price continues to trade in support area, and maybe Gold can make movement up and then bounce down to $1930 support line. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
48
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
Meme coinsIntroducing Meme-Coin Perspectives: Discovering the Art of Folly. Are you familiar with the ubiquitous X's on Pepe, Doge, Shiba, and the like? These symbols have permeated the world of meme-coins, capturing the attention of many. Now, let's delve into a captivating speculative concept known as the "Big Fool's Theory." Picture this: you knowingly acquire something seemingly worthless, fully aware that a bigger fool will emerge to purchase it at a higher price. In simpler terms, you anticipate someone eagerly buying an unnecessary wrapper at an exorbitant cost. What lies in store for those who embark on this venture? The allure stems from witnessing numerous individuals amassing fortunes out of thin air. As a result, a fiery blend of FOMO and curiosity engulfs the hearts of onlookers, compelling them to impulsively dive into the realm of memecoins. They yearn to emulate someone else's triumph or, perhaps, acquire a memecoin that has been resold countless times, now soaring at its zenith. Amusingly, some proponents extol the virtues of these whimsical tokens. When questioned about the benefits of such projects or their potential for growth, the answer is often a resounding, "someone else will buy." This prompts us to ponder: how does this fundamentally differ from a casino? In conclusion, the question remains: Can one truly profit by embracing the Big Fool's Theory, banking on the existence of a fool willing to pay a higher price? The resounding answer is yes. Yet, pause for a moment and contemplate: Could you, in turn, become that very fool? Best regards EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
52
Analyzing Short Opportunities in KAVAGreetings, Traders, Today, I present an in-depth analysis of KAVA, a prominent asset within the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform. This platform offers loans to its users without intermediaries and has thus become a notable entity within the cryptocurrency market. Currently, KAVA's price stands at 1.089. Technical Analysis On closer inspection of KAVA's current state, numerous technical indicators suggest that it might be an appropriate time to consider short positions. Here is a detailed dissection of the relevant technical factors: RSI & Stochastic Oscillators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 69, nearing the traditional overbought threshold of 70. In parallel, the stochastic oscillator is high at 92. These are both significant signals of potentially overbought conditions, frequently leading to a market correction. Bollinger Bands: The asset's current price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, placed at 1.116. This closeness often signifies overvaluation and potential reversion to the mean, providing a price correction signal. Volume Oscillator: The volume oscillator value is -4%, indicating a higher downward volume compared to the upward volume. This pattern can be perceived as a bearish sign in certain market conditions. MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) value currently stands at 0.057. While it's not distinctly bearish, it necessitates close monitoring for a potential bearish crossover. Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci retracement levels also merit attention. On the daily timeframe, the 0.5 level stands at 0.859 and the 1 level at 0.667. These levels could potentially act as support in the event of a price decline. Key Resistance Levels It's crucial to highlight KAVA's significant resistance levels. The asset has a local resistance level of 1.171 and a substantial resistance level of 1.347. These resistance points may act as a price ceiling and provide excellent opportunities for short positions. The convergence of the overbought indicators and these resistance levels present the potential for short positions with a favorable risk/reward ratio. Conclusion Considering these indicators, both the local resistance of 1.171 and the solid resistance of 1.347 seem to be probable regions for initiating short positions. However, it's important to note that trading requires meticulous planning and risk management. It is essential to conduct independent research and consider personal risk tolerance before entering any trades. I will continue monitoring KAVA and provide updates on significant changes in its market behavior. Until then, let's maintain a diligent watch on this asset and observe how the market scenario unfolds. Wishing you successful trading.
by ShawnMCR
31
Micron Pulls Back After Breaking OutSemiconductor stocks have been moving lately. Today’s chart focuses on memory-chip producer Micron Technology. The first pattern to consider is the level around $64.30. MU peaked near this price in November, January, March and April. A breakout followed in mid-May followed by a pullback on Monday. Will buyers step in near the previous high, looking for old resistance to become new support? Next, you have the series of higher lows over the last three months. That kind of ascending triangle may reflect increasing demand for the stock. Third, MACD recently turned positive -- a potential sign of improving short-term momentum. Finally, MU jumped on March 29 as analysts said its long-term demand cycle had bottomed. (The surge came despite weak earnings and revenue.) This month’s rallies in MU and the broader chip space may confirm the industry is back on the upswing. If that’s true, it could give investors another reason to target the $64.30 zone. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:MU
by TradeStation
8
OKXIDEAS contest resultsWe are thrilled to announce that the OKXIDEAS contest has come to a successful conclusion. We would like to extend our gratitude to every one of you for your enthusiastic participation and for sharing your innovative ideas with us! The quantity, quality, and diversity of ideas presented truly exceeded our expectations - this made the selection process both challenging and exciting. After careful evaluation and consideration from our curatorship team, we are pleased to reveal the winners of the OKXIDEAS contest: Without further ado, here is the list of winners: 1st Place: @TheSignalyst 2nd Place: @Kriptotiks 3rd Place: @basically_always 4th Place: @jhnee 5th Place: @pejman_zwin 6th Place: @Master_Chartistlab 7th Place: @FxTraderProAsistan 8th Place: @FX_Professor 9th Place: @leandrosander_ 10th Place: @Trader1SH Congratulations to all of our winners, including @SPY_Master, who despite hailing from an ineligible region of the world, added significant value to our contest. We are greatly appreciative of everyone's efforts and look forward to hosting future competitions!
by OKX
48
NVDA: Short of the Century (Update)We reached the much anticipated .786 fibonacci retracementlevel @ ~$296 today. I know general consensus says that we should at least see the round number of $300 and possibly an overshoot to~$311. Although it is definitely possible, I do not see any significant opportunity outside of short positioning. Whether it keeps rolling or not,I continue to build a Put Contract Short Position. As soon as the market shows any significant signs of weakness to the downside, implied volatility will shoot through the roof and 2024 Put Contracts will be exponentially more expensive. So in light of my confidence in the ultimate downfall of NVDAs stock price I have been short positioning and will continue to until momentum shifts to the downside and start looking to offload those contracts. Options in general and especially Put buying has dropped off a cliff, relative to how many contracts were being bought a month ago. This is another good sign, pointing to NVDA reaching its local high and the shift in trend nearly cemented in. Debt ceiling issues will most likely be the catalyst in the short term but I will be looking out for trouble with China that becomes the real nail in the coffin.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Goontata84
411
NVDA Price Action Analysis: Riding the Bullish Wave Towards $337In this article, I will dive into the price action analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) and explore its recent movements, highlighting key milestones, and providing insights into potential future developments. NVDA has been a subject of considerable interest among traders and investors due to its impressive performance and the formation of significant patterns. I will discuss the journey from the breakdown below $200, the subsequent consolidation, and the current bullish breakout. Additionally, I will examine the Elliott Wave perspective, suggesting the possibility of a larger Wave 3 and the potential for a consolidation phase before a potential new high. The Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern Back in April 2022, NVDA experienced a breakdown below the $200 level, initiating the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is considered a bullish reversal formation, indicating a potential trend reversal. Traders keenly observed the subsequent consolidation phase, lasting until January 2023, when a breakout above the $180 level occurred. Overcoming Contrary Opinions During my analysis, I encountered contrasting views from commenters who disagreed with the projected technical analysis. However, with two target levels set at $270 and $337, it is important to note that NVDA has already surpassed the initial target of $270. The current price sits around $297, indicating a continued upward trend and the potential to reach the bullish breakout target of $337. Consolidation at $270 After surpassing the $270 target, NVDA experienced a consolidation phase lasting approximately one month. This period was characterized by a battle between bullish and bearish forces, as they contested for control of the price direction. Such consolidations are common and often provide traders with valuable insights into future price movements. Elliott Wave Perspective From an Elliott Wave perspective, the ongoing price action in NVDA suggests that the stock is in a larger Wave 3. Elliott Wave theory posits that markets move in repeating patterns, and Wave 3 is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an uptrend. In this view, the target for Wave 3 aligns with the projected price of $337. Traders should anticipate a potential larger consolidation phase upon reaching this target, which could serve as a launching pad for a potential move to a new high. NVDA's price action has been captivating , capturing the attention of day traders and investors alike. The inverted head and shoulders pattern, the subsequent breakout , and the ongoing bullish momentum indicate promising prospects for the stock. While facing initial skepticism, the stock has already surpassed the first target of $270 and shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches the bullish breakout target of $337. Traders following the Elliott Wave perspective should be prepared for a potential consolidation phase upon reaching $337, which could set the stage for further gains. As always, it is essential to monitor the price action closely, considering both technical and fundamental factors, to make informed trading decisions.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bitdoctor
36