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OMUSDT Potential Breakout Structure📊 BINANCE:OMUSDT is currently nestled in the tight base of a Falling Wedge pattern. Keep a close eye on the support level around 0.017, as a critical price to break sits at 0.024. Key resistances and upcoming targets are at: 🎯 Targets: Target 1: 0.036 Target 2: 0.057 Target 3: 0.084 Target 4: 0.123 Regardless of the market situation, remember to use appropriate stop loss. A prudent approach is to set the stop loss below the support zone, with a weekly candle closing around 0.016 as a viable option. Stay vigilant and keep an eye on the charts! 🚀
CRYPTO:OMUSDLong
by ArShevelev
16
Eli Lilly Challenges Falling TrendlineEli Lilly spent the fourth quarter consolidating gains, and now trend followers may expect further upside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the peaks of November and December. Prices tried to fight above that resistance yesterday, creating potential for a breakout. The pharma giant also pushed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Both of those events may suggest that the intermediate-term trend is getting more bullish. Next, LLY jumped on November 2 following strong quarterly results and bottomed around $567 the next session. It tested that post-earnings low last month and repeatedly closed above it. Is new support in place? Finally, MACD just turned positive. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:LLY
by TradeStation
7
Bitcoin kicks off the New Year on a bullish noteAfter a series of bearish breakouts from the pattern resembling a triangle on the hourly chart, Bitcoin kicked off the new year on a bullish note and skyrocketed through its upper bound. By doing so, it established a new high at $45,532. Yet, despite this being a bullish development, a few things continue to ring an alarm bell for us. Last week, we noted that Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC increased in number following the dip in price. However, we have seen the opposite happening since 29th December 2023, with big players seemingly unloading their holdings into Bitcoin’s strength. While this occurrence does not necessarily warrant Bitcoin’s top, it is something to monitor in the foreseeable future. Another thing to watch out for would be an invalidation of a breakout above $44,729 and technicals on the daily chart. In the past two weeks, we have seen RSI retreat from the overbought territory and MACD reverse to the downside. Then, in the past three trading sessions, we have seen them attempting to reverse to the upside. If MACD follows through and RSI breaks above 70 points, it will bolster a bullish case. In such a scenario, we expect Bitcoin to test an important resistance near $48,000. Contrarily, the failure of the mentioned technicals to continue gaining strength will raise our concerns. All in all, our stance remains unchanged, and we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the hourly chart of Bitcoin and the pattern resembling an ascending triangle. Yellow arrows indicate essential developments. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of Bitcoin and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (no trend/weak trend) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
48
BTC - In the beginning phase of the Bull Cycle?*Important - Once the majority bashes crypto and calls it a scam calling for lower targets (like how many did in 2018 and missed out), that is when I will be all in! (In this post, Dumb Money were bashing on crypto, and they end up missing out on huge opportunity!. Check out the “Capitulation” phase shown on the comments. Once dumb money becomes bullish, that would be the time to start taking profits regardless of top! Whales/elites will not miss any opportunities to make money. They simply buy the fear, hype up the market, take profit and crash it again after taking profit. Instead of beating then, lets ride with them! ;) Majority got Rekt last year due to listening to the "Bullish" Narratives the media and Social Media Influencers were portraying last year! Stop listening to them and start paying attention to the technicals. Before reading, get rid of your moonboy mentality and no emotions for dips/corrections! Cannot rule bearish scenarios! Dips are for buying!! People are so focused on the hourly/daily timeframe that they get emotional on every dip! Take a step back to the weekly/monthly timeframe and see why I'm so bullish now. Stop looking at the short-term dips/rise. Short term is irrelevant for the move that is coming! You can't be emotional in these markets (stocks, forex, crypto, real estate, etc.). You will lose this game following the news and doing what the majority does. News creates emotions. Everything you need to know is on the charts. News is manipulated by the elites, and they take advantage of our emotions. Stop listening to the news and pay more attention to the charts. Don't follow the majority, because the majority will lose in the end! Also, don't buy the hype when everyone is buying... instead buy the fear when everyone else is selling. Everything is on the chart! Cryptocurrencies are on the verge of exploding higher. Dips/Corrections are normal and needed in a bull market and are buying opportunities! Huge gains opportunity in the coming months! Never trade blindly. Use multiple indicators to make calculated decisions. Trade with no emotions! "If you can't beat the fear, do it scared!" "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful!" - Warren Buffet. "Markets are a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. - Warren Buffet "Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." - Bernard Baruch "The secret to investing/trading is figuring out how rich you want to be and how poor you're willing to become." "If you want to live like the 5% of the population who are hugely successful, then don't act like the 95%!"
INDEX:BTCUSD
by jaydee_757
56
Bitcoin: Wave 4 New Buy Signal.Bitcoin continues to gyrate within the Wave 4 price structure, which implies there is one more leg higher before probability favors a broader correction. Along with that, there is a buy signal in effect now (the break of the 42,600 inside bar high). This signal appears at a relevant level (off 40K support) and IF momentum follows through, has potential to test the 45 to 46K resistance in the coming week. Now keep in mind, while this appears to be a higher quality setup, it appears in the middle of a holiday week. This fact can reduce the chances of follow through since volume is generally lower. I have been warning about the lower volume holiday environment to help shape expectations effectively (especially for those who receive my Trade Scanner signals). Volume is more likely to get back to normal levels mid week or into early next week. Does this mean you should avoid signals? That would be the conservative choice. In my opinion if you want to take a signal, just trade smaller than usual size. If the momentum fails to follow through you lose less. The key thing to consider is this: as long as Wave 4 does NOT overlap Wave 1, the bullish impulse still stands. This serves as a guide for objective and reasonable expectations. For example, momentum may fail and price may test 40K for a third time. If a new setup appears in such a scenario, I would consider this an even higher probability, especially if we are outside of the holiday volume. The line illustration on my chart (Wave 5?) is what I consider the ideal scenario. This is NOT to be confused with a forecast because there is NO way to know if price will play out this way. These illustrations have not played out numerous times which is the nature of a market that is MOSTLY RANDOM (not always random). The idea behind this is to be prepared IF price confirms, and use this to gauge reward/risk. If you intend to trade/invest for capital appreciation, your goal for the new year should be to focus your attention on the professional side of this business. This type of information exists in the form of academic papers, legal complaints, and professional associations, NOT Youtube. More time in front of charts WILL NOT matter if you do not understand what is going on behind the charts. A big thank you again to the community for your encouragement and support over the year. Have a HAPPY, HEALTHY and PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
The Best and Worst Trades of 2023 💪First of all… happy new year to all traders, globally! As the year comes to an end, and the new year begins, it’s time to join us in reviewing the top trades that defined our unforgettable year together. Marked by a historic market recovery across various global asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds, 2023 has been a memorable year for all of us. Among the best performers, the Nasdaq-100 showed an incredible run, climbing more than 50% over the course of the year, while Bitcoin emerged as another noteworthy recovery adding more than $500 billion back to its market cap. While these two stories make many headlines, there’s much more to discuss and look into. After all, that’s what markets are about - research, planning, and data to find the next great trade. Below, we'll recap these highlights, featuring charts and statistics that explain what happened in 2023 and some emerging trends to watch in 2024. The best trades of 2023 Long Carvana +1063% Long Solana +994% Long Coinbase +448% Long Avalanche +296% Long Nvidia +245% Long Bitcoin +161% Long US dollars versus Turkish Lira +57% Long Nasdaq-100 +55% Short Natural Gas -38% Short VIX -45% For those who want to see more data, we’ve created handy lists for you below. Here are the best and worst for some of the most important asset classes: The best stocks by market cap over $5 billion: 1. Carvana +1063% 2. Bridgegbio +502% 3. Coinbase +448% 4. Affirm +464% 5. Microstrategy +360% 6. Symbotic +346% 7. Applovin +275% 8. Super Micro Computer +253% 9. NVIDIA +245% 10. DraftKings +222% Notable: Duolingo +232% The worst stocks by market cap over $5 billion: 1. JD -53% 2. Moderna -45% 3. Pfizer -45% 4. Dollar general -45% 5. Estee Lauder -43% 6. Bayer -35% 7. Hertz -30% 8. Nokia -30% 9. Etsy -28% 10. Alibaba -19% Notable: NIO -18% The best performers in crypto by market cap over $3 billion: 1. Solana +994% 2. Chainlink +191% 3. Avalanche +296% 4. Bitcoin +161% 5. Cardano +155% 6. Polkadot +103% 7. Ethereum +97% 8. Tron +92% 9. XRP +88% 10. Dogecoin +33% The biggest changes in forex - all pairs: 1. Swiss Franc / Turkish Lira +72% 2. British Pound / Turkish Lira +67% 3. Euro / Turkish Lira +63% 4. US Dollar / Turkish Lira +57% 5. Euro / Russian Ruble +33% 6. US Dollar / Russian Ruble +29% 7. Mexican Peso / Japanese Yen +25% 8. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen +19% 9. British Pound / Japanese Yen +15% 10. Euro / Japanese Yen +13% The best performers in commodities: 1. Cocoa +66% 2. Cattle +23% 3. Gold +13% 4. Sugar +4% The worst performers in commodities: 1. Natgas -38% 2. Corn -29% 3. Wheat -20% 4. Soybean -11% Indices: 1. Merval +321% 2. Nasdaq +55% 3. NIKKEI +31% 4. S&P 500 +25% 5. IBEX 35 +21% 6. DAX40 +19% 7. Russell 2000 +18% 8. Eurostoxx 50 +17% 9. CAC40 +15% 10. Eurostoxx 600 +11% Notables: Hang Seng -17% VIX -45% Thanks for being a part of our community and we look forward to celebrating the end of 2023 and the start of 2024. For those of you who read this far down, we have a game for you – can you spot the new tool we’ve added for 2024? Happy new year, traders! Stay tuned for more great announcements. TradingView
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingView
46
S&P starting to reprice it self as a comparison to the Russel Russel 2000 has currently reached is standard 2 deviation as a comparison to the pricing of s&p. What this means is that currently the S&P price has increased so much over the Russel that recently it has deviated from it average +2 standard deviations. At some point in time price will inevitably return to its average. This could mean one of two things. The s&p price declines more rapidly then Russel. S&P does not increase in price as much as the Russel therefore underperforming the Russel causing the comparison to revert back to its average. Last time such a miss price allocation happened lead to one of the biggest bear markets in recent history. In 2000 the slow climb up with the SPX slowly rolling over and a big spike in Small cap quickly sent the SPX/RUT comparison plumet back down from its +2 to its +1 standard deviation within a short time period only to spike back up. (White arrows on the chart) Something of the sort has happened recently.
SP:SPX
by Ryan1993
17
Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously. Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x. Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets. BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high. Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year. COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry. That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities. Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase. COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought. FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally. While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs. COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC. The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval. In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources. Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer). While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience. The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider: Source: Coindesk Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC. BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking. Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode. While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback. Source: Glassnode THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry. Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase. If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks. Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs. The hypothetical trade set up would involve: • Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780) • Target: 0.480% • Stop Loss: 0.365% • Profit at Target: USD 670 • Loss at Stop: USD 467 • Reward/Risk: 1.43x Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by mintdotfinance
41
Bitcoin Consolidating In A Bull Pennant?Bitcoin appears to be consolidating in a bull pennant. I have not checked the chart in over a week as I have been on vacation, and little has changed - including the price. A pennant has a descending resistance and ascending support. Remember, this can easily turn into a flag, a descending parallel channel. For that to happens, support breaks... people get bearish, only to see another form of bullish consolidation. So be careful. Price is clearly interested in the $42,000 key area here, no surprises.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
37
Solana Is the Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency by Capitalisation.Solana Is the Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency by Capitalisation. But for How Long? 2023 turned out to be a good year for cryptocurrencies, especially given the depressing mood that reigned at the end of 2022. From the beginning of 2023: → Bitcoin increased in price by more than 150% – including due to rumours related to the approval of applications for a Bitcoin ETF; → Ethereum rose by approximately 85%. But what has been particularly impressive is the progress made by the Solana project. This is a decentralised blockchain platform, which is characterised by high speed and scalability — they are achieved through the use of a unique architecture based on the Proof-of-History (PoH) protocol. In 2023, Solana became the first blockchain platform to reach 50,000 transactions per second. And a number of large investment funds, such as Grayscale and CoinShares, have added SOL to their portfolios. SOL is a token that is used to pay for transactions and services on the Solana platform. It can also be used for staking to help support the network. The SOL/USD rate in 2023 has increased by more than 1000%! At the same time, SOL now ranks 4th in terms of capitalisation of cryptocurrencies — after BTC, ETH, and the USDT stablecoin. December was the month when the price of the SOL token exceeded the psychological level of USD 100 for the first time since April 2022 (the historical high reached in the fall of 2021 exceeds the USD 250 level for SOL). But will the price be able to stay above USD 100? The 4-hour chart on the FXOpen TickTrader platform shows that: → the price broke through the USD 100 level, but did not test it; → the price broke through the level of USD 110, which confirmed its role as support; → the price reached the upper limit of the ascending channel, which began in early November. At the same time, the chart shows bearish signs: → the price sharply reversed from the upper border of the channel on the last closed candle; → divergences formed on the RSI indicator. In such a situation, you should be prepared for a scenario in which the SOL/USD price may fall — for example, to test the USD 100 level. In this case, the market can be supported by the median line of the channel. At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by FXOpen
17
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original. Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us. FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED. Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets. Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall. The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak. For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities. This trend is about to shift rapidly. And the speed of such a shift is extreme. While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y. Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating. In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown. Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market. History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds. Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash. Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
6
Bitcoin Futures: A Quantitative Approach to Analyzing BTCIntroduction to Bitcoin Futures Bitcoin, the pioneering digital asset, has carved a niche in the financial markets with its futures contracts. Bitcoin Futures provide traders and investors a regulated avenue to speculate on the price of Bitcoin without holding the actual cryptocurrency. This article delves into a quantitative analysis to analyze the next week's potential value of Bitcoin Futures, employing a sophisticated Neural Network model. Current Market Landscape The Bitcoin market is known for its rapid price movements. Recently, regulatory news, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment have contributed to market fluctuations. Understanding these trends is crucial for traders looking to navigate this dynamic landscape. Quantitative Analysis of BTC Futures' Potential Price Movements Neural Networks & Machine Learning: At the heart of our quantitative approach is a Neural Network model. This model has been trained on historical weekly data of Bitcoin Futures, including key price points and other relevant market indicators. Data Preprocessing: To ensure accuracy, the data underwent rigorous preprocessing, including normalization to make it suitable for the Neural Network. This step is essential in highlighting the true patterns and trends in the data without noise or scale issues distorting the model's view. Model Training: Our model was trained over 500 iterations, adjusting its internal parameters to minimize prediction error. This training process involved feeding the model historical data and letting it learn from the actual price movements. Evaluation and Prediction: After training, the model's performance was evaluated. The actual prices were compared against the model's predictions to assess robustness. This evaluation is crucial in understanding the model's reliability. Impact of External Factors Bitcoin Futures are affected by a range of external factors, including regulatory changes, market sentiment, and technological developments. These factors can cause sudden and unpredictable market movements, making the analysis of future potential prices challenging. Our model takes into account the historical impact of these factors, but it's important to remember that unforeseen future events can lead to deviations from predicted values. Forward-Looking Market Views Based on our Neural Network's learning and the recent market data, the model predicts that the value of Bitcoin Futures for the next week will be around "$44,026.60". This prediction is visualized in our graph comparing actual prices against predicted values over time, providing a clear view of the model's accuracy. Given the fact that the current value of BTC is slightly under 43,000, a trader could plan a long trade targeting 44,026.60 as their exit price. Entries could be taken in many ways such as utilizing key technical supports or waiting for breakouts above key resistance price levels. In all cases, a professional approach to taking risk in the marketplace always require managing such risk using stop-loss orders and making sure the trade size has been pre-calculated. There are many more options on how to have a contingency plan in place in case BTC moved in the opposite direction our AI expected it to. More on this in future articles. The model's learning curve, depicted in the accuracy graph, shows how the prediction accuracy improved over training iterations, reflecting the model's increasing proficiency at understanding the market. Conclusion Our quantitative analysis, utilizing a sophisticated Neural Network model, provides a prediction for the next week's value of Bitcoin Futures. While this prediction is grounded in historical data and advanced algorithms, it's important for traders to consider the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the Bitcoin market. The predictive model is a powerful tool, but it should be used as part of a broader strategy that considers market news, economic reports, and other indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes, forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!
by traddictiv
2
Nasdaq100: Analyzing the Potential Impact of a Rising Wedge The Nasdaq100, a benchmark index comprised of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, has long been a key indicator of the tech-heavy segment of the market. However, recent market trends and technical analysis have sparked concerns about a potential downturn, largely attributed to the formation of a rising wedge pattern that commenced on December 7th. A rising wedge is a technical chart pattern characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, converging in a manner that resembles a triangle with a rising slope. Despite its name, this pattern often signals a potential reversal in the market's upward trajectory, suggesting an imminent downturn. Since its inception on December 7th, the Nasdaq100 has exhibited this distinct pattern, with successive higher highs and higher lows gradually converging. While such formations are not definitive predictors of future market movements, they serve as cautionary indicators, prompting investors and analysts to scrutinize the market's behavior more closely. Historically, rising wedges have been associated with bearish implications for the markets. The narrowing price range within this pattern indicates a loss of momentum and an impending decrease in buying interest. As a result, investors tend to grow cautious and may start reducing their positions, leading to a potential selloff. Several factors may exacerbate the impact of this pattern on the Nasdaq100's performance. Firstly, the ongoing concern about inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and potential interest rate hikes by central banks may contribute to market volatility. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions and global economic recovery post-pandemic continue to cast a shadow on investor sentiment. Tech stocks, which heavily populate the Nasdaq100, are particularly sensitive to market shifts and sentiment changes. The rising wedge pattern's presence within this index raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally that propelled many technology companies to soaring heights. However, it's crucial to note that technical patterns are just one aspect of market analysis and not foolproof predictors. Fundamental analysis, including a company's financial health, earnings reports, and industry trends, plays a significant role in determining stock performance. Investors and traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels within the rising wedge pattern. A breach below the lower trendline could signal confirmation of a potential downturn, prompting increased selling pressure and a bearish outlook for the Nasdaq100. In conclusion, the Nasdaq100's formation of a rising wedge pattern since December 7th has raised concerns among market participants. While technical analysis suggests a potential downturn, it's imperative to consider broader market dynamics and fundamental factors that could influence the index's future performance. As investors navigate these uncertainties, a cautious approach with a diversified portfolio and strategic risk management may prove prudent in navigating potential market volatility ahead.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by crispinj
21
My 2023 Bitcoin ShortSince September 2023 Bitcoin has been in a rally predicated on the Bitcoin ETF launch. The chart has setup in accordance with my technical rules to finally short (bet against) the price action. I am also going to use this post to expand upon my broader bearish outlook on Bitcoin at present and into the future. I was definitively Bullish on Bitcoin in Q1 if 2023 (see linked past Bitcoin posts here on Tradingview) but I am now of the opinion this rally has stalled and will reverse. -The Trade:- Bitcoin has hit a MAJOR Resistance of the 50% Retracement from the All Time High to the November 2021 low at 42235 (see chart below) which I have been noting in my Weekly Livestream all year. Price overshot the level but as we go into this weekend price will close above or below it to reject or confirm it as Resistance. This Sunday night Weekly bar close will affect my outlook. Within the "impulse" move off the recent high the 50% level is 42457 and is remarkably aligned with the wider 50% level. The first profit objective of my short it the 50% of the September onward bullish trend at 34800 but will be a partial take profit with some left on for more bearish action. If price closes back above the 50% Retracements this weekend and/or a new recent high is made then it is likely I will close my short and re-evaluate. To express this trade I am not "shorting Bitcoin" proper but rather buying Puts on AMEX:BITO with expirations in June 2024. Weekly 50% Retracement view: -Bitcoin ETF: "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"- I remain of the opinion that the Bitcoin ETF Launch will be a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" type event. Much optimistic speculation has been placed upon the prospect of "Boomers Buying Bitcoin" because now they (retirees and institutions) can purchase Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. As I noted, I am expressing my trade using BITO which is a Bitcoin Trust instrument. There are already plenty of Bitcoin derivative products available for typical investors to use. Ergo, it is not obvious to me how an ETF launching will change the landscape significantly. Furthermore, I am reminded of a similar event in the past; the launching of CBOE Bitcoin Futures. Futures on Bitcoin launched on December 17th, 2017 literally marking that high and the end of that rally. -Price Outlook: Things are Different Now?- The bullish case for Bitcoin now even after the ETF launches is the coming Halving Cycle. Everyone note that it has created loosely bullish price action 3 out of 3 past times and will likely do so again. First, I do not thins 3/3 is statistically significant. Second, causation or correlation? Was it the Halving Cycle that made Bitcoin bullish or just the fact that it has been going up all this time anyway? One must acknowledge that Bitcoin was born and grew in a 0% interest rate environment which no longer exists. That fundamentally changes the amount of capital that is being infused into Bitcoin which created the 2021 rally. People like to share historical charts and then superimpose them to current price action. Most social media posts you will see are bullish because those are the ones that get the most engagement. No where else have I seen this glaringly obvious (to me) comparison of the current rally in context of the 2019 price action (below). I recall distinctly at that time that everyone was convinced the months prior were just a small hiccup and the new ATH rally was underway. Instead, we had a major economic event (COVID) to come that would push Bitcoin back down to close to the bear market lows again. 2019 versus 2023 -Future Outlook: What is Bitcoin?- The question, "what is Bitcoin?" has been asked for over a decade. I myself became interested in Bitcoin as a "tool for human freedom" that made sense to me from my Information Technology background and Libertarian political leanings. However, I have sadly watched as Bitcoin has been "normalized" in favor of "mainstream adoption" to the point we have reached now where large institutions buying Bitcoin is heralded as an accomplishment. That was never the point... as I see it nor as Satoshi's whitepaper wrote. Over the last few months I have consumed the mainstream (of Bitcoin Maximalist) social media posts and derived that the opinion of Bitcoin is NOT one of replacing the fiat dollar nor disrupting the traditional financial system. Instead the memes have been centered around some flavor or "Buy it now before the price goes higher!" Lost are the memes of yesteryear about Bitcoin combating inflation (due in part likely to the fact that the Fed's actions are actually yielding desired results). The memes around Bitcoin during this rally are frankly reminiscent of Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD TO THE MOON!!! When I attended the first Bitcoin conference in New York in 2011, we were all excited to do something never done before: buy lunch with Bitcoin. A shop down the street from the hotel venue (which at that time could only hold about 250 people) had setup a terminal to accept Bitcoin as payment. This was revolutionary at the time (there were no online payment apps such as Venmo, Zelle, or Apple pay yet invented). Two things happened: Confirmations were slow. A long queue began to develop as people waited for payments to go through. We got hungry. I sat at a table with Jesse Powell, the hitherto future founder of Kraken, who I estimated was sitting on 10s of thousands of Bitcoin... who paid for his lunch with US Dollars. What I learned in 2011 about Bitcoin was: The technology is slow and cumbersome for transaction volume People that own Bitcoin will not spend it Nothing has fundamentally changed on those points in 12 years despite the smartest of technical and economic experts' best efforts. If we look at the average confirmation time for Bitcoin it stands at 64 minutes and the average transaction fee is $25.11. That latter number has been increasing dramatically since the start of November. It is not because of the bullish rally (which began in September). It is because of the failure of Lightning Network. Lightning network was supposed to fix these technical limitations of speed and fees with Bitcoin by adding a layer on top of Bitcoin. Unfortunately, in late October experts discovered a major vulnerability in Lightning Network's programming that would allow nefarious actors to steal Lightning Network Bitcoin. Since then, over half a decade of work and hopes put into Lightning Network have been dashed as the developers now begin to look at a new implementation. The failure of Lightning Network in no way means "Bitcoin is dead." The Layer 1 Bitcoin network is robust as ever. Bitcoin just remains terribly unsuited to be the replacement for global currency. But as I noted above, it was never going to be because no will spend money today that they believe can buy more stuff tomorrow. It is great for the buyer to wait and buy two hamburgers next week for the price today... but bad for businesses that make hamburgers who will go out of business next week if no one buys hamburgers this week. So what is the "use case" of Bitcoin? If we cite that Al Gore invented the Internet in 1985, when the Internet was 13 years old (like Bitcoin) people were using it to send email, host databases, and order goods and services. We were unaware of the true future use cases of the Internet but many of these uses were already underway and people and businesses were using it to save money and/or sell more goods and services. The Internet was a wealth generation machine: it created value. So it pains me to acknowledge now that Bitcoin has settled on a single use case: "personal wealth generation" and rather than generate new wealth it instead acts as a vacuum of capital. TL;DR: The ETF launch will be a "Sell the News" event. I am now of the opinion that Bitcoin has lost its way to being a disruptive technology. I am of the opinion that this rally will not make a new All Time High.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
124