Get started

Community ideas

Is AI a Bubble?As artificial intelligence (AI) weaves into the fabric of global industries, it sparks a crucial inquiry: Is the soaring valuation of AI stocks a sign of a robust future or a bubble waiting to burst? This article delves into the financial phenomenon, dissecting the realities behind the AI market's ascent. What Is a Bubble? A financial bubble represents a market condition where asset prices surge to levels far beyond their intrinsic value, propelled by investor enthusiasm rather than fundamental factors. These bubbles typically follow a pattern: a period of steep growth in asset prices, the peak of the bubble, and an eventual crash that leaves prices more aligned with the asset’s fundamental value. A classic historical example is the Tulip Mania in the 17th century, where tulip prices soared extraordinarily before collapsing. Another more recent example is the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, characterised by the steep rise and subsequent fall of internet company stocks. Indicators of a Bubble Recognising a bubble often hinges on observing telltale indicators such as extreme price-to-earnings ratios, widespread speculative investment, and rapid price escalation without commensurate growth in underlying fundamentals. Other red flags include high levels of market leverage, disproportionately bullish investor sentiment, and an influx of novice investors driven by fear of missing out. With that in mind, we can begin to consider whether AI-related stocks are truly in a bubble. The Rise of AI Technology The ascent of artificial intelligence has marked a significant shift in the technological paradigm, reflected clearly in the financial markets. AI stocks in 2023 have witnessed substantial growth as investors bank on the technology's vast potential to revolutionise various sectors. Nvidia, a leading manufacturer of graphics processing units vital in powering AI solutions, has seen a 200%+ return in 2023; Symbiotic, a robotics and AI company, climbed over 400% this year. This interest isn't just speculative; it's anchored in the real-world applications and performance enhancements AI promises. AI-based stocks encapsulate a broad range of companies, from those developing autonomous systems to businesses integrating AI for data analysis and customer service enhancement. For many, it’s expected to be a revolution on par with the internet itself. And within trading, artificial intelligence trading software has emerged, offering sophisticated tools for market analysis, predictive modelling, and automated decision-making. Arguments for AI as a Bubble In the financial markets, speculative fervour around AI technology stocks has fueled a debate reminiscent of past market bubbles. Here, the arguments for the bubble perspective are unpacked: High Valuations: AI stocks, like Nvidia, are trading at multiples that soar past traditional valuation metrics. Nvidia is trading at 38 times its sales as of November 2 —a stark contrast to the S&P 500's 2.4 times sales—raises eyebrows among market veterans wary of inflated prices. High Market Concentration: The S&P 500’s rally in 2023 has primarily been driven by seven mega-cap stocks—Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla. Each company has benefited from or aimed to capitalise on the AI boom. This market concentration echoes patterns from the dot-com era, raising concerns that the wider index's performance may be overly reliant on a handful of players in the AI space. Overheated Market: Two of the market’s AI leaders—Nvidia and Microsoft—both show bearish RSI divergences on their monthly charts, often a precursor to a correction. Discover which other companies may be ripe for reversal with real-time charts from FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Effect of Rate Hikes: As of the current writing, the full repercussions of elevated interest rates have not yet made a significant impact on stock markets. However, historical patterns indicate that the eventual reduction of market enthusiasm may cast a shadow over the ongoing AI-driven stock rally. FOMO Influences: The market rally is partly driven by investor FOMO—a harbinger of bubble-like behaviour where prices are propelled more by sentiment than substance. There’s also a belief that others are investing in AI disruption stocks and that this will fuel prices higher, creating an unsustainable dynamic. Arguments Against AI as a Bubble Within the fervent debate around AI's market dynamics, substantial arguments stand against the idea that AI represents a speculative bubble: Robust Financials: The most promising AI stocks exhibit strong financials. Nvidia, for example, trades at a price-to-sales ratio below the peaks of many companies in historical tech bubbles, potentially indicating more grounded valuations. Solid Growth: Some AI companies have demonstrated potent sales growth. Nvidia reported revenue growth of 101% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2023. Even Microsoft, one of the world’s largest companies, benefited from 13% revenue growth YoY in the first fiscal quarter of 2024. Technological Foundation: AI’s transformative potential is widely acknowledged, reinforcing its status as a mainstay in technological progress rather than a temporary stock craze, like cannabis, green hydrogen, and SPACs. Historical Parallels: Compared to previous bubbles, the companies at the forefront of the AI surge have sturdy balance sheets—a sign of financial health and resilience. This foundation provides a buffer against market volatility and speculative downturns. Wider Adoption: The increasing adoption of AI across industries bolsters confidence in the sector’s long-term prospects, diverging from bubble scenarios where growth is unsupported by actual market use. Preparing for the Future Investors navigating the AI market landscape are urged to prioritise rigorous due diligence. The key lies in identifying companies that not only ride the AI wave but also demonstrate sustainable business models, robust revenue growth, and sound financial strategies. As the sector matures, it's crucial to discern between those that are fundamentally strong and those inflated by transient hype. Diversification remains essential; a well-rounded portfolio may include AI-focused firms with the potential to lead and innovate while mitigating risk through exposure to various industries and asset classes. Such strategic positioning can offer protection against potential market corrections and potentially capitalise on AI's long-term growth trajectory. The Bottom Line In conclusion, the AI market's surge reflects both innovation's promise and the market's fervour. For traders seeking to navigate this dynamic sector judiciously, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the diverse world of trading, where informed strategies and judicious investment decisions may potentially turn the potential of AI into realised gains amidst the ongoing debate about its future. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
10
Find great stocks to trade with our Stock Screener 2.0Our new Stock Screener 2.0 gives you the capability to scan, screen, and discover over 75,000 stocks from all around the world. How do you open the Stock Screener 2.0? Here's a link that'll get you directly to the Stock Screener 2.0. You may want to bookmark this link so that you always land directly on the screener tool, whenever needed. If you're on our website and desktop app, go to the top toolbar of TradingView and move your mouse over 'Products'. Then go to 'Screeners' and click on 'Stock 2.0'. Why should you use the screener? Our Stock Screener 2.0 empowers traders to sift through equity markets efficiently, and quickly. Our Stock Screener 2.0 was created to give traders a tool that'll enhance decision-making and improve time management. With the ability to quickly narrow down the multitude of available equities, globally, our Stock Screener 2.0 will support traders in their journey, encouraging research, process, and risk management. How does our Stock Screener 2.0 work? All the possibilities are in your hands. If you can envision it, it most likely can be done. You set the parameters and then our screener will display the results – for example: - Want to see all the stocks with a PE ratio under 10? You can do that. - Want to see all the stocks trading above their 200-day moving average? Yep, also that. - Looking to find all stocks that hitting all-time highs and have no debt? You can create a custom screen for that, too. Stock Screener 2.0 Features Our Stock 2.0 screener is fully customizable. This means traders can create, save, rename and delete screens until they've created a perfect list for all the screens they need. In addition, traders can quickly access popular screens based on different factors such as the following: - Highest net income stocks - Strong performance small caps - Dividend kings - And many more pre-made options To access these features (save, load, rename, and access pre-built screens) click on the 'Stock Screener 2.0' text in the upper left corner of the screen: Tip: Remember to save your screens by clicking the "Save" button in the upper left corner. You'll also want to master your filters and columns as these buttons will allow you to create a screen that's perfect for your needs. Like this: Now, let’s create a custom screen. We'll show you how it's done... The tabs at the top of the screener give you the capability to begin narrowing down your screen based on specific criteria. For example, click the Market tab located in the upper left corner of the screen to adjust the countries that you want to screen in. You can screen globally or by country. As you go about creating your first screen, remember that it's possible to access advanced features. Specifically, in the country example we just mentioned, you can select multiple markets that you're interested in. To do this, first make sure that the 'Multi-Select' option is enabled: Filter Section: Here you can choose from hundreds of fundamental and technical analysis elements to find stocks according to what you select. The most common ones are shown in this section: - Index - Price - Change % - Market capitalization - P/E - EPS diluted growth - Dividend Yield % - Sector - Analyst Rating - Performance % If you want to add more, click on the "+" icon and browse through the available categories. The key here is that these are parameters that can be set by you, the trader. For example, click on "Change %" and select "Custom". Then select the 1-month time frame and enter an Above Value of 10%. By doing this, you will only see the stocks that up 10% or more in the last month. You can also combine different parameters at the same time, so the possibilities of filtering stocks are endless. Setups: Here you can select the type of information you want to analyze, divided into different categories from performance to technicals and fundamentals. You can sort the list of stocks by clicking on the "Sort by" icon at the top right of the screen. Columns: The columns you see are related to the type of screen that you're creating, but they can also be right clicked, dragged and dropped, and you can create a new column by clicking on the "+" icon located at the far right side of the column section. Columns give you a visual idea of what's happening with the stocks that you're screening for. There are over 100 indicators at your disposal to add as columns. Create your screen, and then customize your columns, so that you can browse your screen efficiently. We're excited to see everyone get started with our Stock Screener 2.0! We also want to hear your feedback and commentary. Let us know if the comments below what you think about our Stock Screener 2.0. TradingView Team 💙
NASDAQ:DUOL
by TradingView
65
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon! As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work. To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons: 1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan. 2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently. 3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year. 4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting. With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs. Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda. This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year. A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February. This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%. Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls. Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation. Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.fool.com www.jstor.org
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by inspirante
14
NVDA: Beware of these Support / Resistance Levels (H & D charts)NVDA shares are losing momentum after a powerful upward reaction this morning. It seems that as it approaches its resistance area, it is becoming difficult for NVDA to maintain its upward trajectory. We had a good reaction near the Fibonacci retracements, which, as we warned in our last public study, was our main area of support. Now the price is trying to recover, but there are still some challenges ahead. The link to our previous analysis is below this post, as usual. It's interesting to note that despite losing momentum, the price could still seek out the $487.61 region, a secondary resistance and previous top that can be seen on the hourly chart: At the moment, there is no clear sign of a bearish reversal, but we should remain vigilant as the price is finding it difficult to break through the resistance of its Ascending Channel, as evidenced by the purple lines. A correction down to the 21 EMA is plausible, but if the price loses this support, then we could see NVDA near the support of its channel again. So, in the short term, it's all about the Ascending Channel, and in which direction there will be a breakout, as well as the 21 EMA. In the medium term, we should focus on the Fibonacci retracements, and the resistance at $487. I must admit that I would like to see the price at $487 again, since that point has been a personal target for me since the first buy signal at $469: Ignition Bar + above the support of the ascending channel + breaking a pivot point + breaking the 21 ema on the 1h chart = Clear buy signal (to me, at least). However, depending on how the price reacts today, maybe the bullish thesis will be thwarted. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this idea, and follow me for more analysis like this. All the best, Nathan,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
Euro climbs to two-week high as ECB meeting loomsThe euro has extended its gains in Thursday trading. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0925, up 0.45%. It has been a good week for the euro, which has climbed 1.5% against the US dollar. The European Central Bank meets later on Wednesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.0% for a second straight time. The markets will be focusing on the rate statement and ECB President Lagarde's post-meeting remarks. Lagarde has been hawkish, stressing the need to maintain rates in restrictive territory for a prolonged period - "higher for longer". The markets are more dovish and have priced in six rate cuts for 2024, with a first cut as early as the spring. The economic landscape in the eurozone could support the market's view. Inflation has fallen sharply and is at 2.4%, within striking distance of the Bank's 2% target. The economy has cooled due to high interest rates and a recession remains a possibility. Will Lagarde push back against market expectations of rate cuts? Or will she set a more dovish stance and avoid ruling out rate cuts? The tone of the rate statement and Lagarde's comments could have a strong effect on the movement of the euro today. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate at a target range of 5.25%- 5.50% for a third straight time. That was not a surprise but Fed Chair Powell provided plenty of drama as he pivoted from his usual hawkish rhetoric. There had been expectations that Powell would push back against growing speculation that the Fed would trim rates in 2024. Powell not only failed to push back, he signalled that the Fed expected to cut rates three times next year. Powell's dovish message sent equities flying higher and the US dollar tumbling. Just two weeks ago, Powell said it would be "premature" to speculate about the timing of rate cuts and that the door was still open to further hikes. There is still a deep disconnect between the markets and the Fed, as the markets have now priced in six rate cuts in 2024. There is resistance at 1.0964 and 1.1033 1.0862 and 1.0793 are providing support
by OANDA
6
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:DJI
by konhow
40
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82. There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994. Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024. What is the VIX? The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility. Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents: Volatility Measurement: The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options. Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability. Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction. Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell. VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility. Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility. In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
CBOE:VIX
by kingthies
7
Gold Price Susceptible to Test of 50-Day SMAThe price of gold remains under pressure after spiking to a fresh yearly high ($2147), with the weakness in bullion pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from overbought territory. Gold Price Outlook The price of gold sits near the monthly low ($1976) as it weakens for the third consecutive day, with a break/close below the $1973 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $1977 (50% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards $1937 (38.2% Fibonacci extension). Failure to defend the November low ($1932) opens up the $1886 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $1897 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), but the price of gold may track the positive slope in the 50-Day ($1967) should it continue to hold above the moving average. Need a break/close above $2018 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to bring $2076 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the yearly high ($2147).
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Is Nasdaq 100 Ready For A Move Towards It’s All-Time High?From the beginning of November till today, indices experienced a strong rally, where some made double digit gains. EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD has been one of those, which added around 12% to its value. But that’s, basically, what the index lost in the period between the mid-July and end of October. We can see that the index is now getting a hold near the previous highest point of this year, at around 16062. Although we saw a few breakouts above that hurdle, still, the price remains below it. Although there is a good chance to see further declines, we would prefer to wait for the body of the weekly candle to stay above that hurdle first. If that happens, EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD may travel further north, possibly targeting the area near the all-time high. First, it may be the level at 16659, which might come into play. That level marks the high of 27th of December 2021. Slightly above it lies the current all-time high, at 16767. That is the highest point of 2021. To consider a move lower, at least in the near term, a drop below the 15719 zone would be required. That zone is marked by the highest point of September and by the current lowest point of December. If that drop happens, this may clear the path towards a larger correction lower towards the medium-term tentative upside support line drawn from the lowest point of January. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD
by easyMarkets
18
AMD Surges After Launching AI chip that Could Challenge NvidiaAMD unveiled its MI300X chip, an AI-centered semiconductor designed to challenge Nvidia's global market dominance. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) shares jumped in early Thursday trading after the semiconductor group unveiled an AI-focused chip for the data-center market, which it says could be valued at as much as $45 billion over the coming years. AMD, which in June pegged the total addressable market for data-center chips at around $30 billion, launched the MI300X chip, designed to support generative-artificial-intelligence technologies. And it unveiled a next-generation semiconductor focused on supercomputing, the Instinct M1300A. The MI300X, analysts say, could challenge Nvidia's NVDA dominant H100 graphics-processing-unit chip in the large-language-model AI market. Last month, AMD said the new chip could generate $400 million in fourth-quarter sales while the broader family of MI300 semis are expected to see sales of more than $2 billion over the whole of 2024. Large language models "continue to increase in size and complexity, requiring massive amounts of memory and compute,” CEO Lisa Su said during last night's launch event at the company's Santa Clara, Calif., headquarters. “And we know the availability of GPUs is the single most important driver of AI adoption.” Advanced Micro Devices shares were marked 2% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $119.12 each. Such a move would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months. AMD last forecast fourth-quarter sales in the region of $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with gross margins of around 51.5%. That outlook following a mixed third-quarter-earnings report that showed big gains in PC revenue had partly offset the ongoing decline in gaming. "While AMD acknowledged that its software can be further improved, it has reached the point of being 'good enough' for volume deployment," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh. He reiterated his overweight rating on the stock following last night's launch event. "We're encouraged that AMD has released a competitive AI GPU within a massively fast-growing (total addressable market), with endorsements by many high-profile customers," he added. Technical Analysis The RSI (14) is at 56.52, indicating a bullish momentum. The MACD (12,26) is at 0.68, suggesting a positive trend. AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by DEXWireNews
5
What Leveraged Bitcoin Is Doing In This MoveA derivative indicator I have used for many years to analyze Bitcoin is the BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS symbol on Tradingview which displays the number of Bitcoins held in Leveraged Long positions on the Bitfinex platform. This is an indicator of the aggregate long positions held on margin on the platform. It can be used to see what speculative position holders are doing. Recently, during this run up in the price of INDEX:BTCUSD it seems that the Leveraged positions have begun to unwind by taking profit. They are down -23.5% as of today from the start of November 2023. Analyzing this chart is different to On-Chain Analysis because the Bitcoin involved are all stored internally at Bitfinex. No new Bitcoin are created (because they cannot be) by taking these positions. Rather the Bitcoin that are custodied on Bitfinex and put up for the ability for other traders to borrow and the owners to earn interest are involved in the count. A few takeaways: After months of holding leveraged long positions these traders are taking their profits into this move. By having less exposure on margin the risk of a liquidation event (and liquidation candle) is diminished. Leveraged Long positions are net negative meaning that leveraged positions are not the cause of this upward move.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by norok
9
Who are PineCoders?People often ask us who PineCoders are. Simply put, we are a group of Pine programmers who aim to contribute to the TradingView ecosystem. Many of the Pine Wizards are PineCoders, yet many PineCoders are not Wizards. We are a relatively small group of just about 40. Our group of programmers contributes to the ever-growing community in many ways. Some may create script publications for users to benefit from, while other members are Pine experts contributing in different, often anonymous, ways. We don't publish a list of PineCoders members because many are happy avoiding the limelight; they do what they do for the love of Pine and our community. PineCoders strive to represent, in a balanced way, the interests of Pine programmers, script publishers and vendors, and the traders who use scripts on TradingView. Oh, and we have lots of fun together. █  WHAT DO PINECODERS DO? Many of you recognize us as the script moderators who operate this account. However, script moderation is only one manifestation of our activities. In the Pine realm, we also:  • Help maintain and evolve the Script Publishing Rules and Vendor Requirements .  • Answer questions in the Q&A forums we support: the Q&A chat on TradingView, the Telegram Q&A group , and Stack Overflow .  • Moderate the Telegram Q&A group and the Q&A chat on TradingView.  • Manage the private spaces where our top programmers share and help improve Pine.  • Design solutions to improve the Pine-related aspects of TradingView.  • Help define Pine-related development priorities.  • Tally suggestions for improvement from Pine users.  • Answer Pine-related support tickets.  • Test new features and changes to Pine.  • Report bugs.  • Publish content from the PineCoders and TradingView accounts.  • Publish a monthly script in TASC and from the PineCodersTASC account.  • Publish Pine-related news in our broadcast channels.  • Select and support our Trusted Pine Programmers for Hire .  • Select the Editors' Picks for Community Scripts .  • Select the yearly Pine Wizards nominees.  • Organize Pinefests , the Pine programming contests .  • Collaborate on the technical documentation of Pine. █  HOW ARE PINECODERS CHOSEN? Any member of PineCoders can propose a candidacy. When our management team approves it, they submit the nomination to our members to cast their votes. If the majority of our group agrees, we send an invitation to the user. We select people who are agile in Pine and interested in contributing to our ever-growing community. We keep our group relatively small but diverse, as we believe it fosters a dynamic conducive to productive exchanges and efficient decision making. █  WHAT'S YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH TRADINGVIEW? A handful of users launched PineCoders in 2019 with the support of a TradingView co-founder who recognized the potential of uniting power users with good ideas to improve Pine. The official support from this visionary and our daily collaboration with key TradingView teams are some of the main reasons we can successfully realize our projects. We founded PineCoders as a volunteer group, and to this day, the vast majority of PineCoders activities are made possible because of volunteer contributions. As our projects evolved and some work required a few of us to commit to internal TradingView activities, those few also added contract work for TradingView to their volunteer activities within PineCoders. █  WE ARE NOT ALONE Our group does not hold a monopoly on good deeds. Many other Pine programmers also contribute to the strength and liveliness of our unique community. With TradingView being so popular, a constant influx of newcomers to Pine want to learn how to enhance their trading practice by programming indicators and strategies. It would be impossible for PineCoders to support them alone, and it's comforting to see that even today, some people still find purpose in volunteering their time and knowledge to help others. Thank you to all those who help our fantastic community in one way or another.
NASDAQ:SSP
by PineCoders
27
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink) (Re-Upload)The fractal continues to play out like the last Chainlink Cycle. I started to see a bump and run pattern forming, so I went back to 2019 where we are now in the fractal, and we find the same pattern: a textbook bump and run pattern. There is now a very high chance that we will reverse from this point; we just completed the throwback with a double bottom candle pattern. My position is still open from 14.6 and being added to the long position under 14. At the moment, LINK is consolidating under the 1/1 Gann Fan, as you can see below. According to the fractal, we don't get the real break till the 1st of December; it might look something like this. The condition for this theory on the fractal playing out being invalidated is if Chainlink loses this lower high structure and breaks this red support trendline.
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
89
Business Cycle Rotation Part 3Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and the relationship among asset classes to anticipate the business cycle. That series and parts 1 and 2 of this series are linked below. Parts one and two of the series described the general methodology, presented the matrix with the raw data and showed the process used to consolidate the raw data and begin to draw conclusions around the economy's position in the current business cycle. Before I plot the distilled sectors onto a stylized business/market cycle overlay, I plot equities, rates and commodities onto an overlay with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States. CLI readings above 100 (dashed red line) suggest economic expansion to come while below the 100 line suggests weakness, and perhaps recession to come. The index is currently below 100 but rising toward the 100 line. So still weakening but at a much slower pace. To help visualize the cycle I plot 10 year rates (inverted), SPX and the Thompson Core CRB index along with the CLI. Viewed in the manner the cycle that began with the bond top appears to be consistent in terms of sequencing. Rates topped, economy (CLI) topped, followed by equities and finally commodities top as the CLI enters the economic contraction phase. Fast forward to todays configuration. In this perspective, despite the sharp rally in early November, while there is room for a cyclic rally, there is no sign of a lasting bond bottom (see next chart). Commodities, while off their lows don't appear to be suggesting a new leg up in the cycle (but may be moving that way). I think of rates as the first mover in the cycle. To believe that the cycle has turned virtuous I like to see ten year rates make a solid top. The ten year note monthly chart has broken above the multi decade downtrend and above the 3.25% pivot. While a bit overbought in terms of momentum and a small RSI divergence is showing up, the structure from the 2020 low is completely intact. Until I see solid signs of a monthly perspective yield top in the two year and ten year, it will be difficult for me to label this as the kind of high that would lead a change in the economic cycle. The distilled sectors are placed onto stylized market and economic cycle sine curves. If markets (dark blue curve) are correctly anticipating the business cycle (grey curve) the business cycle is somewhere past peak, and should be expected to steadily deteriorate over coming quarters. In part 5 we will examine the totality of the evidence and draw conclusions around the current cycle and what it implies for 2024. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by CMT_Association
9
The 2023 Broker Awards: Vote Now! It's our duty as a trading community to support each other, no matter our backgrounds or experience levels. Our annual Broker Awards help traders find the perfect broker for their trading needs. The awards are entirely based on verified reviews from real traders, like you. The best part? Your votes decide the winning brokers. That's right, real reviews and real connections, all from real traders. Be sure to connect to your favorite broker and write your first verified review, if you haven't already. That single vote could push your broker to the top of the list. No vote is too small. Get involved, traders! To learn more about our 2023 Broker Awards check out the the links below. We've got explainers, details, and more for everyone: 1. Our 2023 Broker Awards season is officially open: tradingview.com 2. Visit the 2023 Broker Awards page here: tradingview.com 3. Connect, review and read about all the brokers on our platform: tradingview.com The TradingView Broker Awards are where the world's best compete to show off their brokering capabilities on an international stage. May the best brokers win.
SPARKS:BROKERS
by TradingView
16
Flight Boarding - Grand Theft Auto 6Hey fellow gamers and number-crunchers, gather 'round! 🎮 Big news alert: Rockstar Games is dropping the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 on December 5, 2023! twitter.com Now, for those who live and breathe gaming, no further explanation needed. But hey, to the data lovers and boomers in the house, let me break it down for you. Rockstar is the genius behind hits like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Bully, and La Noire. Flashback to 2013 when they unleashed Grand Theft Auto 5, which turned out to be the best-selling console/PC-only game EVER. Talk about a gaming legend! Fast forward to now, and GTA 5 has racked up a mind-blowing 185 million units in sales by August 2023. That's across three console generations and PC, making it the cash cow of the entertainment world. Hold on to your controllers because Grand Theft Auto 6 is gearing up for launch, and the prediction is a whopping $1 billion in sales from the get-go! 🤑 Experts are betting on at least 25 million copies flying off the shelves on release day. For the financial gurus out there, I've got the deets on TTWO Rockstar Games history prices in my previous analysis. And if you're eyeing the market, the sweet spot for entering the trade seems to be at that red horizontal line at 146 - 150. But here's the cherry on top: I believe we're aiming for a new all-time high beyond 210! 🚀 So, who's ready for the next gaming revolution? 🌟 Share your thoughts below and let the positive vibes flow! 🚀🎉
NASDAQ:TTWOLong
by GoldCartel
35
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – timing the turn We roll into December and many hoping to take a couple of weeks off over the festive season may be reconsidering that call – such is the opportunity cost. Whether one is looking at equities, the USD, gold, or bonds/rates it's all a big momentum play. In equity land, the US30 is where the big moves are playing out, with the index in beast mode and a mere 1.9% away from its all-time highs. The S&P500 also closed higher for a fifth consecutive week and our US500 index now eyes a test of the 27 July high of 4611, where price action throughout last week suggests further juice in the rally is still possible. What concerns me is that these markets are rich in positioning, valuation and technically overbought. Market internals are very frothy, with 57% of stocks closing at a 4-week high, 85% of stocks above the 50-day MA, and 32% of stocks with an RSI above 70 – levels that typically signal an overloved market and a potential reversal. Valuations are also lofty, with the S&P500 trading on 21.4x forward earnings, although that is more of a 2024 story. Positioning is becoming extreme, with CTAs now max long and shorts having covered hard. Downside protection/hedges have been rolled right off, where the volatility markets have pulled back to the point where many are feeling its cheap and prudent to buy short-dated puts or put spreads. US rates and swaps are rich (see above), notably on the starting point for Fed easing, with the March FOMC meeting now priced at a 70% chance of a cut. We can also look further out and see over five 25bp cuts priced by the end of 2024. The move in short-end rates has been swift, and the USD has followed in earnest. It suggests that the skew in the risk and the potential direction of travel is shifting, and if any of the US data points this week – notably US payrolls - come in above consensus then USD shorts will part cover and those positioned long of Treasuries may too – equity will be sensitive to any move higher in yields. So the chase in risk into year-end heats up but what is extreme can become more so, with the market's elastic band getting pulled back to greater and greater levels. On balance, it feels like long risk is still tactically the right position, but the higher it goes the more the ‘January effect’ will kick in and the more pronounced the position squaring and risk drawdown could play out – as liquidity thins out it could be a very lively period ahead. A turn is coming, but timing it is where the money will be made. Good luck to all…. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: ECB President Lagarde speaks (01:00 AEDT) – the EU swaps market prices 20bp of cuts as soon as the March ECB meeting and 114bp (nearly 5) cuts 12 months out – will Lagarde push back on this dovish pricing, and will the market believe her? Tokyo CPI (Tuesday 10:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see headline inflation at 3% (from 3.3%) and core 3.7% (3.8%). This shouldn’t move the JPY unless it’s a speculator beat/miss, but the BoJ will be watching this closely. RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – the market prices no hikes at all for this meeting, so it will be down to the tone of the statement and whether the 8bp of hikes priced for the February RBA meeting are correctly priced. It’s hard to see any major deviation from RBA Gov Bullock's recent communication, so the meeting should be a low-volatility event for the AUD or AUS200. US JOLTS job openings (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for a slight cooling in job openings, with 9.3 million job openings eyed (9.55m). The USD could be sensitive to this print and prone to short covering if we see above 10m job openings. US ISM services (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see expansion in the US service sector, with consensus at 52.3 (51.8). A downside read towards 50 (the growth/contraction divide) could see further buyers in US Treasuries and keep the pressure on the USD. If the data comes out inline or above consensus then USD shorts could cover. The sub-components of the report matter, notably in new orders and employment. If the employment sub-component comes in under 50, then it could impact expectations and positioning ahead of nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Australia Q3 GDP (Wednesday 11:30 AEDT) – It’s hard to see this influencing the AUD too intently, but it is a small risk for those running AUD exposures over the event. The market eyes GDP at 0.4% qoq / 1.8% yoy. US ADP employment change (Thursday 00:15 AEDT) – with NFPs on Friday the market should be less sensitive to the outcome of the ADP report. With the consensus at 120K jobs, a big beat/miss could impact the USD, as expectations for the NFP change. Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market prices no change in policy at this meeting, so it’s the guidance and tone of the statement that matters more. CAD swaps price an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by the March meeting and nearly 5 cuts priced by end-2024 China trade data (Thursday – no set time) – the market looks for import growth of 4%, and exports to fall 1.5%. The market will look for signs of internal demand, so could be sensitive to any beat/miss in the import print. US nonfarm payrolls (S at 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk for the markets this week. The median estimate is for around 180k jobs, with the economist's estimates ranging from 240k to 100k. We will also look at trends in revisions to the prior reads, as this will also affect the 3-month average. The market could be sensitive to the U/E rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% - a 4-handle on the E/U rate would get the market talking and likely hit the USD. Also, consider average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% mom/4% yoy. I would argue the USD would rally harder on a big NFP print, than selloff on a weaker print. China CPI/PPI (Sat 09:30 AEDT) – The data falls when markets are closed, so there is some gapping risk in Chinese assets and their proxies. Here the market looks for CPI at -0.2% and PPI inflation at -3%. Amid the disinflationary/deflationary backdrop, there are increasing calls for further monetary policy easing.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by Pepperstone
14
GC: Gold Reaches Record High on Hope of Fed Rate CutsCOMEX: Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069 per ounce, up 3.4% for the week. Gold price rose to $2,075 mid-session to beat the previous record of $2,072 reached in 2020. U.S. gold futures also broke new ground. The February 2024 contract of COMEX gold futures settled at a record high of $2,089.7, up 1.6% for the week. On Friday, gold futures trade volume was 259,889 lots, with open interest standing at 498,685 contracts. Options on the COMEX gold futures also attracted investor attention. On Friday, total options volume was 92,906, up 112% from the prior day. Open interest was 806,297 lots. For the lead February 2024 contracts, investors bought 19,565 call options and 6,894 put options. A call-to-put ratio of 2.83:1 indicates that investors are very bullish on gold. Gold prices have been pumped up on investor hype that the Federal Reserve may have completed its monetary tightening policy and could start cutting rates as early as March. How high could gold price go? Since last year, I have written extensively about gold on TradingView. Let’s revisit the fundamental drivers of the global gold market. Gold as an Inflation Hedge Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. The US CPI Index has a base value of 100 set at 1982-1984. Its latest reading in October is 307.7. Over the last 40 years, the cost of US goods and services has tripled on average. The year-end gold price between 1982 and 1984 averaged $378. As of Friday, the bullion gained 447% for the same period. Over the long run, investing in gold does beat inflation. Gold as a Precious Metal As a commodity, gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar. Since gold is priced in dollar, a strong dollar raises the cost for foreign investors who must pay more with weakened foreign currency. This reduces the demand for gold. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” is the general theme in global commodities market, gold included. A closely related theme is “Higher Rates, Lower Prices”. Higher interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Unlike other commodities, gold is not consumed or used up every year. Therefore, gold mining output is not a major factor in the pricing of gold. Gold as a Safe Haven Investment Gold retains its value in times of both financial chaos and geopolitical crises. People flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise. During such times, gold often outperforms other investments. In the past two decades, gold price peaked during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2010 European debt crisis, the 2018-19 US-China trade conflict, the outbreak of COVID pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the March 2023 U.S. bank run. Gold as an Investment Class As an investment class, gold competes for investor money along with stocks, bonds, cryptos and money-market funds. Even at record high, gold gained only 13.2% year-to-date, underperforming S&P 500 (+19.6%), Nasdaq 100 (+46.4%) and Bitcoin (+136.0%). A False Narrative on Monetary Easing The recent rise in the stocks and gold is largely shaped by the changes in market sentiment. Investors believe that the Fed is shifting gears from restricted to easing policy. Looking back in the past two years, market sentiment might not be the most reliable gauge of the Fed’s next step of action. The market has called for the Fed Pivot prematurely and incorrectly multiple times. We will need to wait and see what’s happening next. In his speech at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday, the Fed Chair said that “the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced,” but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now. Investors focus on the current rate well into restrictive territory, but pointedly ignore the warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates. The confirmation bias is at work here. They hear what they want to hear and create a new narrative that rate cuts will come sooner. Pricing in 5-6 rate cuts in a year is very aggressive. The Fed Chair has been accused of being too late to act, seeing inflation transitory earlier on. When it comes to cutting rates, the Fed would be very cautious, and at a very slow and measured pace. Trading Opportunities with Gold Options Market fundamentals haven’t changed. Market sentiment, however, has shifted. The aggressive rate-cut assumption has the effect of lowering the expected interest rates. This helps raise the present value of future cash flows. Hence, stock value goes up. Lower bond yield reduces the disadvantage of holding the non-yielding gold, and the US dollar weakening makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers. This bull market is vulnerable. If investors adjust their rate-cut assumptions from 5-6 to 2-3 times, the market could turn nosediving. However, investors set their sight on rate cuts and will not abandon it until the fact rejects the false narrative. Gold has a so-called “Santa Claus rally” and could continue for a while. The Fed Chair’s statement could become more convincing if: • Nonfarm payroll stays strong (December 8th) • CPI stops falling (December 12th) • The Fed keeps rate unchanged and emphasizes on fighting inflation (December 13th) Options on COMEX Gold Futures (GC) could be a cost-efficient and risk-mitigated way to express one’s opinion on how quickly the Fed would cut rates. Each options contract is based on 1 futures contract and has a notional value of 100 troy ounces of gold. At $2,089.7, each contract is worth $208,970. For illustration purpose: For the February 2024 contract, an out-of-the-money (OTM) call at 2190 ($100 above futures price) is quoted at 18.80. To acquire 1 call options requires an upfront premium of $1,880 (= 18.80 x 100 ounces). An OTM put at 1990 ($100 below futures price) is quoted at 9.00. To acquire 1 put requires an upfront premium of $900 (= 9.00 x 100 ounces). Options premium is significantly lower than futures margin, which stands at $7,800 per contract. It’s a fraction of the cost if you were to buy 100 ounces of gold in the spot market. If the trader buys a call and gold futures goes up, his account will increase in value. Unlike investing in spot gold or gold futures, the payoff in options is nonlinear, determining by the Black-Scholes option model. Similarly, when the trader buys a put and gold futures declines, he would also make a profit. On the flip side, the trader could lose money if the market moves against him. But the maximum loss is capped at the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by JimHuangChicago
7