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The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." www.cftc.gov COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers. This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week, Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement? Ask your representative maybe? If you are US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
79
20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?Hello Friends! This is a 3 Week chart of SPY, showing you the past 20 years of price action... From the 2001 dot com bubble, to the 2022 recession, to today in 2023 I decided to explore the possibility of the bottom being in and developed a thesis based on this Taking a look at the 3 Week MACD, we can see multiple golden crosses as highlighted by the YELLOW CIRCLES Each and every single time the 3 Week MACD Golden Cross has occurred... It has triggered a multi year long bull cycle for the S&P 500 as shown via historical analysis. The ONLY TIME this led to a fakeout was during the 2001 Dot Com Bubble era... From Approximately October 1, 2001 to February 14, 2002, SPY was rallying and shows signs of tremendous bullish action. However, turmoil came back in the Bears were in control once again. The only reason markets continue to crash after February of 2002 was because the price had moved below the 50 WMA as indicated by the giant arrows Due to weakness in SPY's price action during 2000 - 2002, we were never able to recover ABOVE the 50 WMA and crashed further as a result UNTIL the RSI BOTTOMED below 30 Fast forward to the 2010s, looking at 3 Week price action from December 2011 to the 1st half of 2020:::: You can see golden crosses on the RSI & MACD correlate immensely with multi year bullish price action And I'd like to come to today as an example... As of February 16, 2023, SPY is currently holding above the 50WMA level of approximately $401 if we can close above here on March 6, 2023. We will usher in the next Multi year bull run! We are seeing welcome signs of a bullish reversal taking place, such as the 3 Week RSI continuing to show STRONG signs of bullish divergence playing out since May 31, 2022 The 3 Week RSI Golden Cross in combination with the 3 Week MACD likely also about to close a Golden Cross shows that this market is strong, the bulls remain in control for now, despite these turbulent times Now I am no financial advisor, but my best advice right now is the following::: hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!
AMEX:SPY
by Jonalius
82
Has Block Bottomed?Block was a prominent growth stock before and during the pandemic. Like most companies of that type, it fell sharply between late-2021 and late-2022 as interest rates rose. But now it may be showing signs of bottoming and potentially turning higher. The first pattern on today’s chart is last November’s high of $75.77. SQ broke above that level in late January and held it this week. Has old resistance become new support? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is back above the 200-day SMA for the first time in over a year. That kind of “golden cross” may suggest the longer-term uptrend has grown more bullish. Third, the lower study features our 2 MA Ratio custom script. It uses the default settings of the 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Notice how the fast EMA remained above the slower EMA during the latest pullback. Finally, SQ jumped on November 4 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. That may keep traders focused on the fintech with the next set of numbers due after the closing bell this coming Thursday, February 23. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:SQ
by TradeStation
5
BTC: Don't open the oven half way through.This thing is not yet cooked. It's so exciting to see it moving upwards after so many months, isn't it? It is a bullish sign so far according to our analysis, but looking in the oven when the pudding is trying to rise is not advisable. This is a MONTHLY move, and they can be incredibly protracted. This one is no exception. The volume isn't what it should be yet, also. Be careful. Those of you who have been listening and averaged in using cash BTC like me, should be happy that we are getting a Sign of Strength. Nothing has changed since my last essay on this subject a few days ago. I still expect a pop up above 25.5k to get the last shorts out. It could even wick up higher, but the mass of red bags around 30k isn't going away. I still think the best way to get your money out of you would be a pop as above, followed by a series of dips that look very buyable. Those of you not puffed in at the top will buy these dips instead if you aren't careful. There will be another drop to beat the stuffing out of you afterwards. You may notice I use two (different) price inputs and divide the sum by 2 to get an average that smooths out price and makes volume more accurate. Public Service Announcement: (This should be a Public Financial Health Warning) The moonbois are out there with their mouths open, try not to let your animal instinct take over. You have a brain, use it. The video on the left is basically an ad for BuyBit. Go ahead and watch it and then say I am wrong. The psychology is simple: Tell the people what they want to hear, and give them an avenue to spend their money. Win or lose, he makes money. You? He isn't bothered if you do. The solo video was from only 6 days ago. How did THAT make you feel? Bullish? See how he inflated the price axis to make it seem more extreme? You all remember the bull times in BTC and how it ran off and you had to hold your breath and believe? That's the memory the big boys want you to have, and they will take advantage.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
40
Nasdaq -> It Is ConfirmedHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . In my opinion the Nasdaq will start the next bullrun in 2023. On the weekly timeframe we have three massively bullish indications, the first one being a double bottom, then a trendline break and also a bullish ema-crossover. Considering this very bullish behaviour I am now just waiting for an opportunity to jion the next push towards the upside. On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for the market to break above the next resistance zone which at that point is turned support and then provide the continuation towards the upside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NLong
by basictradingtv
61
Bulls are unwilling to give up yetIn our previous article, we noted that we were growing increasingly bearish on Bitcoin. However, we also said that the short-term trend reversal was not confirmed yet, and we would like to see more developments suggesting the rally’s exhaustion. Ideally (to support a thesis about the trend reversal), we would like to see a bearish crossover between DM+ and DM- on the daily time frame. In addition to that, we would like to see a further decline in MACD (later followed by a crossover below 0 points) and RSI. Then on the weekly time frame, we would want to see MACD start flattening and being unable to break above 0 points. Regarding the price action, we will continue to watch levels at $21 454 (support) and $22 314 (resistance). If the price breaks to the upside, it will be bullish and hint at buyers being unwilling to give up yet (though we will monitor volume closely for signs of a fakeout). Contrarily, a breakout below $21 454 will be bearish. The current setup is displayed in Illustration 1.01. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. Two days ago, a breakout below the support took place; however, it quickly became invalidated. Then yesterday, the price broke above the resistance, which again did not last long. Now, the price stays stuck between support and resistance. We will wait for another breakout from this narrow range. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
101
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP! In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out... 2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse. Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania. Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item. I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item. The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading). The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason) Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness... However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ. So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome. This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed. We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality. SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really... So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare?? I told you that the answer is not straight-forward. And some short technical analysis: This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin. There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ) It shows us yet another perspective: If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
42
Nvidia -> Higher, Higher And HigherHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nvidia is actually quite overextended towards the upside, just the last couple of weeks the market had a pump of about 65% towards the upside. Considering the fact that from a weekly perspective we are also retesting previous support which is now turned resistance, I do expect a short term rejection towards the downside and then the longer term continuation towards the upside. On the daily timeframe you can see that we are currently retesting also previous resistance, so I am now just waiting for some bearish rejection which will then lead to a short term weekly correction towards the downside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
50
ROKU Earnings: Not Bad But Not GreatROKU has an incomplete bottom ahead of its earnings report later this week. The technical patterns don't indicate a bad report, just not a great one. There is some accumulation and a shift of sentiment around the lows of the bottom formation, which are likely to provide support. It is unlikely that this stock would drop further than the Dark Pool Buy Zone unless it has a bad report. The company has struggled with Market Saturation for a while. Some strategic partnerships recently and in the future may be what the stock needs to stabilize here to eventually begin the next uptrend. Weekly chart showing strong long-term support for the current bottom formation:
NASDAQ:ROKU
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
4
Big Four Macro: Equities Part 2: Weekly and DailyEarly 2022 was characterized by a sharp 27% decline in SPX, 38% in QQQ and 33% in IWM (Russ 2000) prices. Since finding support in October, equities have corrected higher. Most indices have now retraced over 50% of their initial declines. For instance SPX has moved nearly 20% higher from its low and the NYSE composite 22% off its lows. In October price found support at the uptrend that has defined the bull market since the march 2009 bear market low (see the Big Four Macro Equity piece from last week). As would be expected that strong support has produced a significant correction. More recently SPX has moved modestly above the downtrend that define last years bear market, turning the immediate trend neutral. The question becomes: Is this corrective or is it the beginning of a nascent bull market? My macro view (discussed in last weeks post),helps to inform my view that the rally from the October low is corrective. As a result, I am actively monitoring for bearish setups and structures to sell against. The pattern from the October low is mostly consistent with corrective rather than impulsive activity. In my view, the move high has been generally labored and gradual and has allowed the market to remove any vestige of the oversold that had accrued during the decline. Over the last few weeks SPX has moved higher into a decent confluence of chart and Fibonocci resistance as defined by the December high, the 50% retracement of the decline, and a significant internal trend line (not shown for the sake of chart clarity). If the market does manage to move higher from this zone, there is a stronger/more attractive confluence in the 4400 zone that is defined by the August pivot, a channel top, and Fibonocci objectives. Buttressing this view is the idea that the broad market has risen to test the breakdown point. For the NYSE Composite this is a very significant juncture. The behaviors that develop from this point should offer a tremendous amount of visibility in terms of the coming three to four months. There is also a phenomenon known as the midway correction. Midway corrections often occur about halfway through bull and bear markets. Last weeks macro piece made the point that the current bear had covered much less ground than prior bear markets that had occurred post Greenspan put. Finally, the daily momentum has rolled over and the weekly oversold has been neutralized. If the market does turn lower in coming weeks there shouldn't be much standing in its way. A show of weakness from this position would be quite bearish. Bottom Line: I am actively monitoring for bearish behaviors and set ups. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
SP:SPX
by CMT_Association
12
Fading the Soybean Oil premium.Jumping straight into the technicals, we see a head and shoulder pattern on the daily Soybean Oil chart. With the neckline now broken, it seems a bearish set-up might be possible. While the technicals are important, understanding where the current price level of soybean oil is in context to other products could help us build further conviction on this idea. Firstly, the Soybean crush components. Currently, Soybean Oil trades at a pretty large premium against Soybean and Soybean Meal. Looking at the price ratios of Soybean Oil/Soybean & Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal, we also see that both have been trading out of the ‘normal’ range since 2021. With both ratios now trending lower and knocking on the door of the normal range again, we will watch closely to see what happens as we approach this critical juncture. Secondly, Soybean Oil vs its substitute, Crude Palm Oil. Again, we see Soybean Oil as the outlier here, as prices diverge from Crude Palm Oil, with Soybean Oil trading higher. Looking at the bottom chart, we can clearly see the Soybean Oil/Crude Palm Oil ratio deviating from the average range established in 2018 – 2021. With this ratio recently trending lower, a break below the upper level of the range established (dotted line) could accelerate the closing of this premium, as seen in the 2021 to 2022 period, where the ratio collapsed swiftly. The technically bearish setup, coupled with Soybean Oil’s relative valuation against the soybean complex and Crude Palm Oil on fundamental standpoint, makes a decent case to short Soybean Oil Futures from here. To express this view, we can consider setting up the trade in a few ways: 1) An outright short on Soybean Oil using the CME Soybean Oil Futures, at the current level of 60.05, setting our stop at 67 and taking profit at 42, with each 1-point move in the Soybean Oil Futures contract equal to 600 USD. 2) A spread trade between Soybean Oil & Crude Palm Oil, by taking a short position in the CME Soybean Oil Futures contract and a long position in the CME Crude Palm Oil futures contract. Such a setup could potentially allow you to stay profitable even if you turn out to be ‘wrong’ in your market views if it eventually proves that crude palm oil has been underpriced and the soybean premium is closed by crude palm oil rallying. For this trade, it is trickier to set up due to the contract size and tick value difference. Interested readers can check out one of our previous ideas where we have covered this trade in further detail: The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by inspirante
15
Gold is still an inflation hedge assetA comparison between 3 periods: Last 50 yrs Dow +5793%, Gold +5,828%. Last 20 yrs Dow +413%, Gold +717% Last 3 yrs Dow range, Gold up With inflation still in play and likely a recession this year, between gold and equities, who will continue to have more upside potential? CME Micro Gold Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.1 = $1 1 = $10 10 = $100 100 = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by konhow
2
HOW TO HELP VICTIMS OF THE TURKEY EARTHQUAKE..?Here's how to help the victims of the earthquake in Turkey: You can send compatible tokens to the addresses in the link below to Ahbar Organization's crypto wallets which the Turkish government approved for donations. CRYPTO ADDRESSES YOU CAN DONATE TO & TRACK: crypto.ahbap.org Alternative campaigns: Turkish Red Crescent: www.kizilay.org.tr AFAD (Ministry of Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency en.afad.gov.tr
by KivancOzbilgic
48
EUR/USD below 1.07 ahead of UoM dataThe EUR/USD continues to print bearish price action after forming a peak around 1.10. The EUR/USD’s retreat has been aided by a general risk off tone across the markets, which is supporting the dollar and undermining risk-sensitive currency pairs. On Thursday, the EUR/USD attempted to break out of its recent consolidation range by moving above 1.0780. But that breakout attempted lacked conviction and rates went back below the exiting range. The fake out has seen the bears take control of price action, driving rates below recent support at 1.0710 area. This level will be important to watch as the focus turns back to the US economy in the second half of Friday’s session. Following the robust Canadian employment report, FX traders will turn their attention south of the border next. US sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan will be published at 15:500 GMT, followed by CPI in the week ahead. The UoM’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys have been closely monitored in recent months, as investors have tried to front-run the Fed in anticipating policy changes. The data should move the dollar if we see significant deviation from expectations. US consumer inflation data will be published on Tuesday of next week. Inflation has been falling and the Fed has responded by slowing the pace of its rate hikes to 25 basis points. It looked like the Fed would hike rates one more time, in March, before pausing. But after a much stronger jobs report, the probability of two more hikes has shot higher. If CPI comes in hotter, then this could further boost those expectations. Insofar as today’s session is concerned, well the currency markets have been showing some affection to the dollar, while the euro and several emerging market currencies have been out of favour so far in the session. This comes as US index futures have tumbled with Nasdaq 100 futures off by about 1.3% by mid-morning European session, with the sector recently providing poor earnings results and laying off workers in a stark reversal from the boom during and immediately after the pandemic. European shares also sold off. Sentiment has been hurt by realisation that the Fed might go further in hiking interest rates than previously expected, after last Friday’s jobs report was accompanied by hawkish commentary from several Fed officials. In addition, it is also possible that investors are concerned about valuations again after the sizeable recovery from the October lows. The UK’s FTSE has even gone on to hit a record high, despite concerns about the economy. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
12
DOLLAR INDEX: Bullish context in short-medium term?Hi everyone! There would be a lot to write about the fundamentals of the US dollar, but time is very precious so I'll just try to translate fundamental analysis into technical analysis with this hourly chart. I hope it can be useful to someone anyway... ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! PS: I would also like to know your opinion about dollar index, what do you think? Post your opinion in the comments.... A.B.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
29
‘Abandoned Baby’ in Amazon.com?Amazon.com tried to rally a week ago. It proceeded to fall on weak quarterly results, leaving some potentially difficult patterns on the daily chart. First, the single candlestick on February 2 was isolated above the other recent prices. That is sometimes known as a bearish “abandoned baby” -- essentially a failed breakout. The location of the candlestick is potentially important. By occurring at the falling 200-day simple moving average (SMA), it suggests the longer-term downtrend remains in effect. (It was AMZN’s first test of the 200-day SMA since August.) It was also near a bearish gap on October 28, which was triggered by weak guidance. Next, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retreating from an overbought condition. Traders looking for continuation lower may now watch for a potential break of the trendline along the lows of 2023. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TradeStation
13
WTI OIL Long term Channel Down holdingWTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since late July, completing 6 months of a structured downtrend. Every technical decline has been following a similar pattern, dropping -22% and -25% respectively. Right now the price is on the last counter trend rise before the final decline starts. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the spot as every MA100 1D rejection has been bearish. Targets: 1. 65.00 (marginally above a measured -22% decline). Tips: 1. The price is a strong sell every time the RSI 1D approaches the 60.00 level. Successful trade on this pattern: Please like, follow and comment!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
12