BTC Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?BTC Dipped into the CME GAP
Structure shows some weekness
There is still Liqiuidity below left
When are we expecting Price to reverse? Watch the Video for more details.
Community ideas
Panic selling? I'm buying!A triangle is drawn, accumulation which came after active growth, I expect the trend to continue
Medium/long term, we'll see what happens in the Autumn, I expect a test of a new all-time high around 5.000
I make purchases in parts based on given values, where the price is now, and I use a spot account and do not use leverage. I believe that this support is the optimal point for opening a mid-term or long-term long position, since we see a test of the trend line and 3.000 where there is strong support
Tesla Fell More Than 12% After Earnings. Where Might It Go Next?CEO Elon Musk of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA has said that if you believe in the future of his EV company’s FSD technology (short for “full self-driving”), then you should probably be invested in TSLA stock. If you don’t have faith in FSD, then perhaps you shouldn’t be.
I don't know about that, but one thing that technical analysts can understand is the stock’s chart, seen here as of midday Wednesday (July 31):
As the chart above shows, TSLA rallied heading into release of its earnings on July 23 after the bell, but has mostly pulled back since then -- including falling more than 12% on July 24.
Could such action have been forecasted and acted upon? Let’s check it out.
The first thing to note is the stock’s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern -- the set of three purple curved lines in the chart above. That pattern is historically bullish.
Tesla’s breakout from the admittedly crooked neckline (the downwardly sloping purple line above) ran some 42% to the upside before the stock apexed at $271 intraday on July 11.
However, July 11 is in the past. What about the future?
As of midday Wednesday, Tesla was still about 15% below its $271 peak. Tesla’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) was also postured rather bearishly.
The stock’s 12-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) -- denoted by the black line at bottom right in the chart above – was below Tesla’s 26-Day EMA (the orange line above). Add in the fact that the stock’s histogram of its 9-Day EMA (the blue bars at the chart’s bottom right) was below zero and that’s an historically bearish technical pattern.
Meanwhile, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line with the purple background in the chart above) appears neutral, but is curling back in a bullish direction.
But what if we erase our inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and make it part of a larger story?
Check this out:
Tesla’s RSI and MACD are both the same in this chart as they were in the first one, but this graph no longer shows an aged inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has already run its course.
Instead, this chart shows an historically bullish cup-with-handle pattern, as denoted by the big purple arc above.
In fact, the diagram above appears to show multiple technical positives for Tesla:
• The cup-with-handle pattern has a $271 pivot point, marked with the small purple line at right.
• Tesla is trading above both its 50-Day Simple Moving Average (the blue line) and its 200-Day SMA (the red line).
• The 50-Day SMA has crossed above the 200-day one, forming a so-called “golden cross.” That’s historically a bullish sign.
Things will likely look even better for Tesla if the stock can take back the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to get the swing traders in line. That would likely budge the 9-day EMA’s histogram (the blue bars at bottom right) into positive territory, which is typically bullish.
It would also probably push the 12-Day EMA (the black line at bottom right) above the 26-Day EMA (the orange line at right). That’s an historically bullish sign as well.
This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
Trading Idea: Bearish Shark Setup on NZDUSDI wanted to share an interesting setup on NZDUSD that’s been forming for a while. Let’s dive into the details!
Current Overview:
Bearish Shark Setup:
Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) : The setup has been hovering at the PRZ, which some traders might misinterpret as a violation.
Key Insights:
Having the Right Knowledge Matters : From my 19 years of trading and nearly 16 years of coaching, I’ve seen even experienced traders make mistakes in reading signals like this. It’s not uncommon for traders with 8 years of experience to misjudge such setups.
Strategy:
Second Chance Entry:
Key Level : 0.5935
What to Do: If you missed the initial signal, wait for the market to retest 0.5935 for a second chance entry opportunity.
Community Alert:
This Trade Alert was triggered at 14:00(SGT)
Final Thoughts:
Patience and proper signal interpretation are crucial in trading. If you’re looking for a second chance, keep an eye on 0.5935. Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need more insights or if you missed this trade.
What’s your take on this setup? Have you seen similar patterns before? Share your thoughts and strategies below!
Happy trading, everyone!
MARUTI BULL FLAG BREAKOUT??🚀 MARUTI Breaks Out! 🏁📈 🚀
The bulls are back in the driver's seat! 🐂💥 MARUTI stock has just broken out of a classic bull flag pattern, signaling a potential surge ahead. This technical formation indicates a period of consolidation, followed by a strong continuation of the previous uptrend. 📊💹
For the savvy investors, this is a golden opportunity. The breakout confirms the bullish momentum and points to further gains on the horizon. 🌟📈
As the market buzzes with excitement, remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. The road ahead looks promising, but as always, tread with caution and keep your investment strategy in check. 🧐📚
Join the ride and let's watch MARUTI rev up the engines! 🏎️💨
Potential Big Move for Verasity (VRA)? History May Rhyme...Hello there, fellow traders!
I’ve been taking a close look at Verasity (VRA) and wanted to share an interesting pattern I’ve noticed on the VRA/USDT chart from KUCOIN.
This is my first time publishing an idea, so feel free to counter my idea as I am eager to improve. Before diving in, remember, this is not financial advice (NFA) – always do your own research and invest wisely!
Historical Patterns:
Looking at the daily chart, Verasity has shown some impressive movements in the past. Check out these key points:
Previous Cycle (A to F):
Starting Point (A): After a period of consolidation, VRA took off.
Peak (F): The price surged by an incredible 36,859.39%!
Current Analysis:
Potential Bottom (D?): We seem to be at a similar point to previous lows, suggesting a potential new cycle could be beginning.
Future Projection (F?): If history repeats, we could see a rise of around 21,059.58% from current levels.
Why This Matters:
Patterns like these can offer valuable insights, especially for those looking to time their investments. If VRA follows its historical trends, we might be in for a substantial upward movement.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: Around the “A” and “D” points, where prices have historically bottomed out.
Resistance Levels: The “B” and “F” points, marking significant peaks.
Final Thoughts
While these patterns are promising, remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This analysis is based on historical data and past performance does not guarantee future results.
As always, this is not financial advice (NFA). Be sure to conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Happy trading and let’s see where VRA takes us next!
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward.
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits.
The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline.
“Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It”
You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor.
Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity.
Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures.
AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash."
For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI.
Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them.
Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks.
The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize?
Let Us Know Your Thoughts!
With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
GOLD will rise by +300% in only 3 years! (Better than Bitcoin)I am pretty confident that GOLD will rise by +300% in price in only 3 years! Is gold a better investment than Bitcoin at this moment? Should you sell BTC and buy GOLD? Definitely yes, and I will tell you why!
Gold was in a sideways consolidation period from 2011 to 2024. And this year, in March 2024, the price finally made a strong breakout bullish candle on the monthly chart that changed everything! The big players have a lot of liquidity and then cannot move large amounts of money from one asset class to another with a single order. Also, for them, it's not best to buy all assets at the same time. In 2024, we see that big players are hugely interested in gold again, so this should be your main focus.
Why can Gold go 300% in 3 years and Bitcoin cannot? That would be around 210,000 USD per Bitcoin in 2027, and we know that this is impossible to happen as Bitcoin is statistically dropping every third year by 70% - 90%. Of course, big players are using this high volatility to buy cheap Bitcoin and to force retail investors to sell in a huge loss. They will do it again, as it's extremely profitable for them. Most likely, the price of Bitcoin in 2027 will be below 70k!
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart we can see that the price of GOLD is inside this ascending parallel channel (since the year 2000). The probability of touching the top of the ascending channel is very high at this moment. From the Elliott Wave perspective, gold is starting an impulse wave (3)! Usually, waves 3 are the strongest! Another indication that huge news is coming for GOLD.
Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Bitcoin vs Gold Cup & HandleBitcoin weekly chart vs gold monthly chart, cup and handle edition. Gold broke out of it's handle this year, waiting to see if Bitcoin does the same as the fundamentals continue to strengthen.
As of the Bitcoin Conference this past week we now have legislation announced that would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve here in the US, and Trump and Kennedy vowing to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset if elected and end the current government policy of selling seized Bitcoin. Harris is also switching to pro-crypto after the Biden administration has been actively anti-crypto during this term.
Keep buying Bitcoin.
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour.
The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season.
So what’s going on?
First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%.
I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons:
1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate.
2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal.
3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews.
While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this!
Lululemon is on my watchlist!
META History repeating Double Bottom leading to $800.Meta Platforms (META) almost hit its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday, a Support level that has been holding since February 01 2023. With the long-term pattern being a Channel Up since the November 04 2022 market bottom, yesterday's Low is similar to the Double Bottom on Meta's previous Accumulation phase on October 26 2023.
That day's Low started the 2nd Bullish Leg of the Channel Up that peaked on April 08 2024 after a +95.14% rise. This is the exact same % rise as the Feb 24 2023 - July 28 2023 Bullish Leg, which was the 1st of the Channel Up.
As a result, this is technically the most optimal buy opportunity on a long-term basis for META, with a technical Target at $800.00 (+95.14% as the previous 2 Bullish Legs).
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The TradingView Show: Charting Big Rotations with TradeStationOur discussion will dive into the breakout charts of small caps, the ongoing chatter about interest rates, and the shift among Fed members towards a dovish stance. We'll also examine the implications of the slowing AI stock boom and the increasing participation of stocks in catching a bid in the broader market.
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Understanding these market dynamics is crucial, especially during seasonal shifts like those often observed in summer, where distinct patterns in market behaviors, such as those seen in the S&P 500, emerge. Charting and research play pivotal roles in navigating these fluctuations, offering insights into potential opportunities and risks. By leveraging these tools, traders can make informed decisions aligned with evolving market conditions, enhancing their ability to thrive in dynamic trading environments.
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Ethereum ETFs Pump Out $1B in Trading Volume. But When Record?The novel asset class debuted for trading on Wall Street with about a billion dollars worth of trades. But Ether’s price didn’t move an inch. In fact, it dropped, confusing traders who were expecting a more impressive performance by the megacap token. What happened?
Ether ETFs Make a Splash on Wall Street
Ethereum ( ETH/USD ), the second-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ), made its debut as an exchange-traded product this week. A total of nine spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) landed for their first deals on Tuesday. Packaged by eight different issuers, these new investment vehicles generated a buzz with $1 billion in volume traded, or the entire value exchanged between back-and-forth trades.
The cool thing about this milestone event is that ordinary consumers and professional money managers can get their hands on a Bitcoin alternative — these ETFs hold genuine Ethereum. And while buyers can’t get custody over the digital asset itself (that’s for the issuers to handle), they can buy shares of the ETFs and get the same volatility and price exposure as if they were holding the actual product.
And that’s where the value proposition kicks in — buyers don’t need to be tech-savvy, get a cold wallet and silently mumble a 24-word seed phrase every time they access the blockchain. They can log into their brokerage account and snap up some spot ETH ETF shares.
A Price Show Similar to Bitcoin’s Pump
Markets saw that same narrative play out picture-perfect with the launch of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs . Back in January, the Securities and Exchange Commission gave its nod to the long-awaited crypto products and shortly after, the orange token blasted off to a record high of more than $73,000 per coin.
It must be said that the all-time high didn’t arrive immediately . But there was a solid build-up in the days and weeks before the official rollout. A price increase of a formidable size .
Analysts had expected a similar scenario to unfold for Ethereum. Only that, there wasn’t a powerful pump in the price — not before, not immediately after the launch of the ETFs. Why was that?
Why Ether Can’t Walk in Bitcoin’s Footsteps
Some big differences can be spotted. The spot Bitcoin ETFs exchanged about $4.6 billion in trading volume on day one, or about five times more than what Ethereum achieved. The second most valuable token pulled in about $107 million of net inflows — the money that stayed in teh funds after the money that had left — on its first day as an ETF product.
Moreover, Ethereum is far less popular as a store of wealth and an investment asset. It’s the place where DeFi dApps and NFTs run on smart contracts (excuse the jargon, but it’s a good way to make a point).
Ethereum doesn’t have the big digital currency/digital gold/payment method aura like Bitcoin. Instead, it operates as a platform where geeks program immutable contracts that lay out the infrastructure of the next internet era — Web 3. To illustrate, think of Bitcoin as crypto’s gold ( XAU/USD ), while Ethereum could be likened to Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (in its early days, though) — the technology player that paves the way to the next big thing.
Bullish Narrative Remains Intact
This said, the big guys on Wall Street are nonetheless bullish. The asset managers that launched these new ETF products, including Fidelity, Grayscale, and BlackRock, are lowering the entry barrier to Ethereum as a technology alternative to Bitcoin’s speculative cred.
Against this backdrop, the price of Ethereum stayed flat and even dipped a little. The token was hugging the flatline around $3,460 per token and was down about 1% a day after the big launch. Still, Ethereum is up about 50% on the year, exactly the same pace as the rise of Bitcoin for the same time span.
More importantly, the door was cracked a little more open for another spot crypto product that wanted to rub shoulders with traditional assets, such as bonds, stocks and currencies.
What’s Your Prediction?
Is Ethereum going to repeat the success of Bitcoin now that it has ETFs to shake up the price? Let us know in the comments!
GOLD to find sellers at market price?Gold - 24h expiry
Posted a Double Top formation.
Short term bias has turned negative.
5 negative daily performances in succession.
20 4hour EMA is at 2411.5.
We look for a temporary move higher.
We look to Sell at 2411.5 (stop at 2427.5)
Our profit targets will be 2371.5 and 2361.5
Resistance: 2404.0 / 2412.2 / 2420.0
Support: 2383.9 / 2370.0 / 2350.0
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Walk Through WallsBitcoin no longer has any interesting or meaningful proposition beyond its public rhetoric. It is a paper tiger. In the coming years, it will see immense success as it is adopted by various funds and political narratives. However, its ecosystem's development has lagged so severely that it cannot ever hope to catch up to competing networks. Since 2015, the sole purpose of Bitcoin has been to maximise short-term mining revenues. Its holders are secondary to this supply chain and have been tricked into parroting the ideas that uphold the control of this vampire class. This is something I will be writing in depth on in the future.
Ethereum has successfully executed scaling, superior UX, utility, and shedding the mining class. The dream that L1s would be institutional chains is actively being realized. Dapps will slowly replace traditional financial infrastructure over the coming years. The efficiency and velocity increase of bringing all capital on-chain will have resounding effects on the global economy. With today's ETF, buying a stake in this system will be easier than ever - no ASIC infrastructure needed.
This does not mean Ethereum is itself immune to disruption. Its moats are reliability (uptime) and quality of ecosystem, both traits that would take a decade or more to be overcome. The world computer has been the home of hungry innovators and on-chain culture, and it will soon be the nexus of all human capital. It must remain adaptable while still holding the eye of its original contributors.
My target for Bitcoin is $250,000. I expect Ethereum to dramatically outperform this in the same timeframe - in a sentence, because it is controlled by the incentives of its owners, and not an external power structure. Many Bitcoiners are complacent that their investment never needs to be re-evaluated, because it is a 'perfect asset' with a fixed supply. This creates walls within their framework that are not really there; if a system is failing you and you cannot see why, you should try knocking into things and find what falls over.
Bitcoin: No Moon Anytime Soon.Bitcoin: My previous week's anticipated scenario flailed to play out but in all fairness was never confirmed by the market on this time frame (short setup off 60K). Price is now flirting within the upper boundaries of the 64-66K resistance AREA which was previously a support. With this in mind, I anticipate a bearish retrace scenario over the coming week which can take price back into the low 63K to 64K area. This is ideal for swing trades and day trades on the short side. Expecting greater moves one way or the other is not reasonable within this context.
Narrowing a range of scenarios is the best we can do when it comes to "forecasting" the future. Since the markets are HIGHLY random and any piece of unexpected news can change everything dramatically, we can only assign a loose probability based on a historical reference (like a previous support/resistance level). Once we can narrow a range of scenarios, it HELPS to have a framework to CONFIRM the scenario, otherwise the outcome is more likely to be RANDOM. When a scenario is confirmed, it INCREASES the chances of a positive outcome but does NOT guarantee one. Probability means there is always a chance of failure and in this game, is the reason why RISK most be well defined and respected since its one of the few things we can control.
A trade idea often begins with one of two possibilities: momentum continuation OR reversal. Which one you choose is going to shape how you filter information and what criteria you place on it to confirm. In the case of Bitcoin now, since the 64 to 66K area is an anticipated point of resistance (see arrows), it would make sense to look for the confirmation of reversals or short signals (Trade Scanner Pro). Once confirmed the next step is to be able to gauge reasonable potential and this is a function of your chosen time frame. For example, the profit objective and associated risk on a 1 minute chart will NOT be the same compared to a one hour chart. The larger the time frame, the greater the reward/risk.
In the case of the time frame on my chart, I am measuring short potential based upon the previous support level around the 63 to 64K area (now previous resistance). It may or may not reach the profit objective, the point is it would be unreasonable to expect more although ANYTHING is possible. Since the broader trend of Bitcoin continues to be BULLISH, in my opinion it is better to expect supports to generally hold and less from shorts.
One important thing to be cognizant of is the herd mentality of "experts". Typically in situations where there is a dramatic movement, the herd of experts usually "forecasts" continuation of that move since it is a typical reaction to think in a "linear" sense. You may notice calls for 100K etc. When Bitcoin was testing 53K they were calling for much lower prices. if you regularly consume and value such misinformation, that is a liability that only you can contend with.
Profit in this game usually comes from the mistakes of others. In order to capitalize you have to recognize where common errors are made (like buying highs). Without a framework to shape decisions in a more objective way, you are much more likely to rely on your "intuition" (greed/fear) and following others who pretend to know more than you. I say it all the time: follow PRICE not people.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The Semiconductor Bubble is Finally PoppingI believe it is time for one of the biggest bubbles in history to be popped. I'm talking about semiconductors here, but really I would call this entire situation an "everything bubble." i think it all starts with semiconductors though, once the bubble pops it's going to get ugly quick and shorts will pay. However, timing such a move is difficult, but with some good TA you can increase the odds quite a bit. As always, it's only worth risking so much, top picking is a fool's game. Don't short just because of me. If anything, it might just be best to reduce long exposure for the time being rather than shorting.
I go over some charts for SOXX NVDA and more, which I have individual ideas for also. All of these charts feature bearish patterns and major trend breaks. It is all adding up, every single semiconductor I see has a major downside break and NQ is on the edge of breaking its uptrend as well.
We'll have to see how it goes, if I knew what was going to happen for sure I'd be on my yacht right now.
What Technical Analysis Says Nvidia Stock Might Do From HereNvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is an interesting stock in that it’s up almost 185% over 12 months as of July 17 -- but has rallied and sold off over the past two months. So, what now?
Let’s see what the stock’s chart as of July 17 might show us:
The first thing you might notice is that NVDA hit a “basing period” from March into May, as denoted by the two pink horizontal lines above.
The stock then broke out around May 21, although a sell-off followed beginning around June 21.
This sell-off has been supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier breakout, as denoted by the thick purple line at right in the above chart. It also looks to the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), as denoted by the thin blue line above.
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into the neutral zone -- not even close to being in technically overbought or oversold territory – as shown in the blue box above.
Lastly, Nvidia’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence chart (or “MACD”) is coming off of extended levels in June, with the histogram of the stock’s nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in negative territory for about a month now, as denoted by the green box above.
Separately, the MACD’s 12-day EMA remains below the 26-day EMA, as also seen in the green box above. This is historically a bearish pattern.
All in, NVDA might be trying to develop a new base of consolidation at recent levels before deciding on whether it's time to break out above the $141.40 level or head back down to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (the thin red line in the chart above).
But a word of caution. The stock might also be developing a so-called “double top” pattern, which could be seen as a pattern of bearish reversal.
Full disclosure: The author of this article was long Nvidia stock and Nvidia calls as of the time of this writing.
This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
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Megacaps vs Small Caps: Has Nvidia Done This Before?Nvidia has embodied the megacap growth trend for more than a year. Now there could be signs of sentiment shifting -- at least for a little while.
Today’s idea uses two charts to consider potential changes in market conditions.
First, Jensen Huang’s semiconductor giant showed some potentially similar patterns in March and June. Both times, it jumped to a record high on strong results and peaked a few weeks later. Both tops had bearish outside days followed by lower highs. Then periods of consolidation set in.
MACD also turned lower and Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) slid from overbought conditions.
NVDA bottomed 29 sessions after its March 8 reversal day. If a similar period applies this time, it could suggest sideways movement will last through the start of August.
In the meantime, traders seem to be focusing on small caps and cyclical sectors like financials and industrials . That brings us to the second chart, a ratio of the Russell 2000 against the Nasdaq-100.
It clearly shows small caps’ relative underperformance, which began in mid-2006.
The lower study reveals that the ratio jumped 11.65 percent in the last two weeks. That’s the biggest two-week gain since 2002. Some chart watchers may also notice the ratio’s bullish outside candle after hitting an all-time low. Those patterns could also suggest a bottom has occurred.
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Gold Hits Record Highs! Skyrocket Further or Sharp Reversal?4-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): The chart displays a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows. This indicates a bullish market structure.
Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel, showing a steady increase in value.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Potential Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP 1: 2319.385
TP 2: 2288.085
TP 3: 2267.832
Current Price Action: The price has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel, suggesting a potential reversal or breakout. Traders should watch for confirmation before taking action.
1-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
Higher High (HH): Similar to the 4-hour chart, the 1-hour chart also shows a higher high, indicating a bullish trend continuation.
Ascending Channel: The price is respecting the ascending channel, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Current Price Action: The price is at the top of the ascending channel. Traders should look for signs of a reversal or a breakout above this level to gauge further price movements.
15-Minute Time Frame Analysis:
Ascending Channel: The 15-minute chart shows a detailed view of the ascending channel with the price closely following this structure.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Current Price Action: The price is currently at the top of the channel, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or continuation depending on the breakout direction.
Summary:
Bullish Trend: All three time frames show a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows.
Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel on all time frames, which supports the bullish outlook.
Key Reversal Zones: Pay attention to the 1-hour and 4-hour LQZ / Reversal points at 2429.940 and 2391.394 respectively.
Potential Reversal: The price is currently at the upper boundary of the ascending channel on all time frames. This indicates a potential reversal if the price fails to break out. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades..
BTCUSD - $63,000 - $65,000 Imminent... This weekend, i was expecting a selloff into $52,000 but wat happened was a low resistance liquidity run into premium arrays.
Looking at the daily order block array @ $63,866 as the first point of interest.
We also have a weekly array just above that area which spans upto FWB:65K
Earnings Season to Show if Big Tech Stocks Can Justify AI HypeUpper echelon of tech realm is expected to report the most profits since early 2022 as the bar is set high thanks to the big promise of artificial intelligence.
Earnings season is about to hit fever pitch with the biggest names in the corporate world getting ready to deliver spring-quarter financial updates. The bar is set high thanks to the promise of artificial intelligence to rewire how businesses operate, spend and make money.
How high exactly? All S&P 500 companies collectively are predicted to knock out the biggest increase in profits in more than two years — year-on-year earnings growth is pinned at 8.8% for the quarter ended June, the highest since the first quarter of 2022.
Froth or Not?
Stakes are high. The upcoming string of earnings data will show whether big tech high-flyers can justify the AI hype that has propelled stocks to record after record . The S&P 500 has notched more than 36 all-time closing highs this year and is sitting on gains of more than 18% since it started trading in January.
The Big Dogs
Apparently, optimism is sweeping left and right, lifting valuations of companies big and small. A handful of them have been singled out as the biggest group of winners. And — you guessed it — they’re all involved in the AI narrative.
Chipmaking giant Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) and a clique of big tech heavyweights are lined up to show if their earnings and revenue guidance will catch up to the sky-high valuations. Nvidia has more than doubled this year, soaring above $3 trillion in market value. Briefly, it became the world’s largest company . Its peers Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) have rocketed to records this year as well.
Heavy Concentration
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 fill up about 37% of its worth, which presently gravitates toward $48 trillion. This said, these 10 titans of capitalism contribute 24% to the broad-based index’s earnings — the highest ratio since 1990.
To keep going with the numbers, before we dive into what’s coming over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 companies are trading at 21.4 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months. For comparison, the average multiple for a five-year stretch is 19.7.
It gets even more interesting when you zoom in and double click on five tech titans — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Their price/earnings multiples have ballooned to an average of 34 times projections, up from 28 times. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, has soared to 41 times, from 24 times in January.
Against that backdrop, analysts are quick to point out that a correction in stock prices may loom large if these corporate giants can’t beat out their earnings projections. Is there room for disappointment?
Stacked Up Against Expectations
Let’s go around the table and see what’s coming over the next few weeks. We’ll keep it tight so we’ll only look into the elite Magnificent Seven club .
July 23
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT )
Year-to-date performance: 23%
Revenue guidance: $64 billion
Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL )
Year-to-date performance: 33%
Revenue expectations: $79 billion
Tesla (ticker: TSLA )
Year-to-date performance: 0% ( find out the reasons ).
Revenue expectations: $20.16 billion
July 31
Meta (ticker: META )
Year-to-date performance: 44%
Revenue guidance: $36.5 billion to $39 billion
August 1
Apple (ticker: AAPL )
Year-to-date performance: 24%
Revenue expectations: $84 billion
Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 30%
Revenue guidance: $144 billion to $149 billion
August 21
Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 168%
Revenue guidance: $28 billion
Let's Hear from You!
Are we going to see another blockbuster quarter of record revenue and profits? Or is the AI hype overblown and could this mean big tech may let us down? Share your thoughts below!
Gold analysis and trade idea 16 JulyConsolidation zone forming a bull flag pattern
Resistance area at 2449
Potential double top formation at 2445-50 level
Possibility of consolidation before breakout, with multiple attempts needed for a successful breakout
Buying opportunities seen for every dip within the channel
Resistance levels at 2434 and 2447 highlighted for potential selling opportunities.
