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Big Four: 2023 Macro ConclusionsI begin each year with a macro assessment of what I refer to as the big four markets: Bonds, Equities, Commodities, and the Dollar index. Over the last six weeks we have examined monthly and weekly charts of the big four, and developed our thoughts around how the next year might unfold. Those more detailed pieces are linked below. Late last year we presented a tutorial on using momentum to visualize the business' cycle from a market perspective (series linked below). We also produced a series covering credit conditions (also linked below). In this piece, we will combine all the things in an attempt to develop our trading views for the year. Bond Monthly: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the low inflation backdrop of the last several decades to a more inflationary backdrop. I intend to be a better seller into rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. S&P Monthly (Log): In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary trendlines intact, I would be hard pressed to conclude that the macro trend has changed. In short, the secular bull remains intact and it should be given at least some of the benefit of the doubt. But my suspicion is that the secular trend is changing and that a primary bear market is unfolding. While still willing to take bullish trades in the daily and weekly perspectives, I am much more interested in opportunities to sell solid technical setups into weekly perspective strength. Commodities Monthly: I am a better seller of strength and will prioritize bearish setups. This chart continues to support the idea that the business cycle is weakening/topping. Dollar Index Monthly: The 70.70 - 121.02 trading range has defined the Dollar trade over most of the last 4 decades. Even at the August 2022 high, DXY remained well within this range. Since correcting from the August 2022 high, the market is now in the upper center of this range. Moves inside the bounds of the range are primarily noise and while they present trading opportunities, they mean little in macro terms. If the market does test the top of the broader range, my expectation is that a major shorting opportunity will develop. Business Cycle Matrix: The matrix is entirely consistent with a weakening business cycle that has yet to trough. Over the last two years rising short and long rates led the cycle lower. Equities, responding to higher rates, turned lower this year and both industrial and agricultural commodities are now weakening as economic demand wanes. The outlier is the Dollar. It has benefited from global flight to quality, carry and the aggressiveness of our central bank verses other central banks. But, of the asset classes, the Dollars relationship to the business cycle is the least consistent. Rates clearly led this cycle lower and it is likely that they will lead the next cycle higher. It is important to note that short rates have risen more than long rates. This has created the type of highly reliable yield curve inversion that signals a coming recession. High Yield Option Adjusted Spread - Investment Grade Option Adjusted Spread Monthly: If there is any one thing, other than a collapse in inflation, that would induce a Fed pivot it would be a rapid deterioration in credit conditions. A collapse would show up in this chart (series linked below). A spread moving back into the 500-600 bps area would get the Feds attention and begin to set the stage for a rapid pivot. Conclusions: 1. The business cycle is likely to weaken over the coming months. 2. The weaker cycle should produce lower equities (earnings will finally begin to deteriorate). 3. A recession should put in a temporary top for bond and note yields. 4. A sharply steeper curve, led by short rates falling more rapidly than long rates, would suggest that the recession was here. 5. A weaker business cycle should produce lower commodities and a lower Dollar. For myself, I like to have a blueprint of expectations to trade and position around. But it is also important to be flexible. In highly financialized and interlocked economies things change quickly and plans must be adapted to the new situation. I suspect that risk management and flexibility will be needed this year. Many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
6
Bitcoin could plunge back to $20K• BTC/USD falls on Silvergate • Hawkish Powell has hurt everything include cryptos • Not much support in sight below $21.4K Bitcoin was down for the third day and week at the time of writing, pressing against key support around $21400. The momentum and negative sentiment towards the sector strongly suggest a breakdown could be on the cards towards $20K next. Sentiment towards crypt assets have been negative and that hasn’t changed after Powell ramped up the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric earlier this week. The dollar and bond yields have risen sharply, weighing on all non-interest-bearing assets, including cryptos and gold. Crypto prices have also fallen after Silvergate, a bank that has been at the centre of the industry’s growth, decided to shut down. More on this and what it means for Coinbase is something my colleague Joshua Warner has written about, below. But first, let’s take a look at the chart of BTC/USD. If support gives way around $21400, there is not much prior reference points for the buyers to use as an area of interest. So, we could see a sharp follow-up technical sell-off in the event of a breakdown. Should the bearish scenario play out, $20K could be the obvious target, while the 200-day average comes in about $300 below that level around $19.7K. The bulls will either want to see a false breakdown below that $21.4K level, which would point to the bears getting trapped, or an eventual move above one of its local highs to create a higher high and thus break the downtrend. The most recent high comes in around $22,655. This is therefore the line in the sand for the bears, meaning that for as long as price holds below this level, the bears would remain in control. As mentioned, here is some ore crypto-related news from my colleague Josh Warner, who earlier wrote the following: Silvergate is down over 50% and poised to open at fresh all-time lows this morning after revealing it plans to wind down its operations and enter voluntary liquidation. ‘In light of recent industry and regulatory developments, Silvergate believes that an orderly wind down of bank operations and a voluntary liquidation of the Bank is the best path forward. The bank’s wind down and liquidation plan includes full repayment of all deposits. The company is also considering how best to resolve claims and preserve the residual value of its assets, including its proprietary technology and tax assets,’ said Silvergate in a statement. That is having a contagion effect on other crypto-related stocks, with Riot Platforms down 3.7% and MicroStrategy trading 2.9% lower. Coinbase is also feeling the heat from the Silvergate fallout and is down 3.7% today. The company cut ties with Silvergate, which was a banking partner for Pro clients, last week and the cryptocurrency trading platform said today in a tweet that it has ‘no client or corporate cash at Silvergate’, adding that ‘client funds continue to be safe, accessible and available’. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst with FOREX.com Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOREXcom
20
USD/CAD could be heading to 1.40• BOC pauses rate hikes • Fed gets more hawkish again • US employment sector continues to show strength The USD/CAD has just hit its highest level since November 2022 after the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and US JOLTS Job Openings came in ahead of expectations at the same time, providing fresh ammunition for the greenback after Powell’s hawkish message on Tuesday. BOC pauses rate hikes The Bank of Canada was a bit more dovish as had been expected, keeping policy unchanged for the first time in 12 months. It acknowledged GDP weakness and employment strength, but there was no mention of excess demand in the policy statement and said the North American economy is to remain weak in the next couple of quarters. • BOC said it expects to hold key rate at current level conditional on economy developing broadly in line with forecasts • BOC is prepared to increase rate further if needed to return inflation to 2% target (they had to add this, to hedge their bets like all other central banks – right?) • The policy statement also dropped language about economy remaining in 'excess demand' Hawkish bets jumped after Powell spoke Meanwhile, there was more evidence the US labour market is rather hot as firms advertised more job openings. • JOLTS Job Openings 10.824 million vs 10.546 million expected and 11.012mm previous The latest data comes after the Fed Chair sent everything plunging on Tuesday after warning that the central bank could ramp up the pace of rate hikes and could keep a tight policy in place for longer. This sent the odds of a 50-basis point rate hike for the March 22 meeting to above 70%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market was previously pricing in 25 basis points for this meeting. The terminal interest rate is now expected to climb closer to 6% than closer to 5% expected at the end of January. Short-ended yields have correspondingly risen as the Fed continues to front-load rate hikes. USD/CAD path of least resistance to the upside Following today macro events, the USD/CAD hit a new multi-month high. The Loonie has potentially paved the way for a run towards 1.3800 next. Above that level we have last year’s high at 1.3977 and then the key 1.40 handle next. But with today’s macro data mostly out of the way, it remains to be seen whether we will get to those levels or see a retracement first. It is possible that some traders may now ease off the gas until Friday to push rates significantly from around current levels. On Friday we have jobs reports from both North American nations. Even if we see a pullback, the bullish trend will remain in place for as long as key support around 1.3650 does not break. Ahead of that, short-term support is seen around 1.3760 and then at 1.3700. Regardless of the short-term, we maintain a bullish view on this pair thanks to the Fed getting hawkish again. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
Long
by FOREXcom
3
Where is the opportunity for the gold crash? Trading is a process of trial and error. When mistakes continue to occur, the main problems you face are shrinking funds and psychological suffering. A trader must reduce the probability of making mistakes, because your profits come from the losses of others. That is to say, when someone makes a mistake, there will be profits for people to make in the market, but you can't calculate and predict how many people will make mistakes in the next step, and how big a mistake they will make, and you can't guarantee that every time you Both are on the right side. Then, in trading, the only thing you can do is when you make a mistake, try to keep the time of the mistake as short as possible. All that's left is to wait for someone else to make a mistake. Powell warned that in order to cool down inflation and the economy, the rate of interest rate hikes will continue to be raised. The market was in an uproar. Before, they thought that employment would pick up, and it would be fine if they didn’t cut interest rates. At least they wouldn’t raise interest rates, right? In addition, the stock market can't bear it, and the possibility of a US economic recession is confirmed at once. As a result, the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year yields continued to intensify, reaching 100 basis points, and the probability of a 50-basis point hike in March was raised from 25% to 75%. There is also February non-farm payrolls this week The report and next week's CPI inflation are all heavy pound news. The gold market will fall first, and the stock market will definitely not be able to bear it. Now long-term U.S. debt has become the best safe-haven asset. The U.S. economic recession should make gold rise, but the market The preferred choice is not necessarily gold for hedging. Compared with the vertical drop last night, we should pay attention to two points today: 1. Gold has bottomed out and rebounded slightly, and if this pattern rises, the market outlook must be empty. 2. Choose the short position, the gold repair high point and the top of the 1-hour line and the big Yang line. Choose the most reasonable position to continue to fall, which is the high point of 1821-1823. Therefore, after the sharp drop, today’s gold is the first to go short, 1815-16 short, or wait for the safest position 1821-1823, stop loss 30, target 1808-1811. If it falls directly, it depends on whether the previous low of 1804 breaks the position. If it breaks within a day, it will still be empty later. If it does not break within the day, I will continue to remind traders here Like all traders, Miracle loves trading very much. We welcome your different opinions in the comment area.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Miracle_QQ
14
Get ready to be long Gold and short JPYThe chart of Gold expressed in Japanese Yen has remained in a very tight weekly closing price range of 7% for almost a year. The boundaries are clear as an ascending triangle. This is a trade I will lean into hard by buying Gold and either selling Yen futures or buying USDJPY spot in approximately equal USD values. JCB will continue to inject money into the system. The Yen is likely to becoming the garbage can currency of the world. By buying Gold and selling Yen I become USD neutral in the trade.
OANDA:XAUJPYLong
by PeterLBrandt
8
BTC: Continue to go long, pay attention to 23K Last week, the economic data released by the United States was mixed, and the US dollar entered a period of volatile pullback. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in January recorded -4.5%, worse than the expected -4%, the largest decline since April 2020. The February ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 47.7, lower than the expected 48; However, the ISM service index recorded 55.1, stronger than the expected 54.5. Both PMIs suggest that US inflation may be more sticky than expected, which may support the future prospects of the US dollar's trend, but in fact, the US dollar index recorded a drop of nearly 0.7% last week. Although from the perspective of the US dollar and risk appetite, the price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) should have been boosted last week, unfortunately, there was negative news in the crypto circle last week. According to reports, the cryptocurrency bank Silvergate announced that it will delay the submission of its annual 10-K report for the 2022 fiscal year. Silvergate stated that "the company is currently analyzing certain regulatory inquiries and investigations related to the company." Immediately afterwards, many cryptocurrency companies and cryptocurrency trading platforms such as Coinbase, Circle, and Tether urgently announced the termination of business dealings with it. The news caused panic in the crypto circle and put pressure on the price trend of Bitcoin. The daily chart shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply last Friday, breaking through the range of 23,000 to 24,000. It is currently holding steady near the upward support line of 22,000, which started on January 18, and there may be an opportunity for rebound correction in the trend. If it goes up, the initial resistance will focus on 23,000, and further up, the resistance will focus on the 20-day moving average range of 23,600 to 24,000. Continuing to break through will win the opportunity to challenge 25,000 again. Personal trading strategy: Enter the long position at 22,000-22,400, with the first target at 23,000 and the second target at 23,600. However, if it effectively falls below 22,000, it may usher in greater downside space, further down to 21,500 and 20,000. Therefore, it is necessary to set stop-loss strictly, and stop-loss promptly when breaking through the support. I will also continue to pay attention to changes in the market and give the latest strategies, please continue to pay attention.
Long
by FlashTrades_
196
Will Deere Start Running Again?Industrial stocks have outperformed in the past month. Today’s chart examines a big name in the sector: farm-equipment maker Deere. First consider the high basing pattern above $400 so far in 2023. It’s a higher low than the troughs of July and September, potentially establishing new support near the previous all-time high from last April. Next, DE was relatively extended the last time it challenged resistance. But this time it’s rested, which could make some traders expect a breakout. Third, you have the pair of bullish gaps in November and February after quarterly results beat estimates. That could suggest investors have a positive fundamental view. Fourth, MACD has turned higher in recent weeks. Finally, prices are bouncing at their 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (EMA). The eight-day EMA has also crossed back above the 21-day EMA, a potential sign of short-term momentum shifting toward the bulls. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:DE
by TradeStation
6
Turkish Lira - Doesn't look good...Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs: After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes. But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either. In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief. The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty : Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board. After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone. A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable? By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple. IMF/NATO/ The West: In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace'' In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier. (remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy). So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira. Who is more affected? The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future. Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature. May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one: and may instead can be another epic rebound:
Long
by FX_Professor
15
Macro and crypto: What should traders and investors expect?Hello, everyone! Today we would like to discuss macro and crypto, what affects that, what depends on that and what to expect from the market and when the new bull cycle will start A LITTLE BIT OF THEORY 1. US PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) – macroeconomic indicator that shows the level of business activity. 2. DGS 1&5 – average 1 and 5 year US Treasury yield. 3. FED Funds Rate – the interest rate at which U.S. banks lend their excess reserves for short terms to other banks. Let’s figure out what's GOOD and what's BAD for the crypto market 1. PMI Values above 50 are a good sign, the economy is growing, markets have more liquidity. Values below 50 are a bad sign, the economy is shrinking, there is less and less liquidity in the market. 2. DGS 1/5 High rates are bad, people are used to investing where there is a clear yield and clear rules for receiving returns, where there is less risk. Low rates are good, bonds do not bring profitability, people are forced to choose more profitable, and therefore risky instruments for the preservation and multiplication of capital 3. FED Funds Rate High rates are bad, the interest on capital and liquidity is becoming more and more, the required level of profitability must be higher than the prime rate + the rate of the individual counterparty. Liquidity becomes less and less, access to it becomes more and more difficult. Low rates are good, liquidity is available to everyone, everyone can take funds to realize their goals and objectives, the overall profitability of any business is quite low. Lots of free money in the market. Which market can be called BULLISH? 1. US PMI values above 50 2. Low DGS values 1/5 3. Low FED Funds Rate That's the kind of market we had from April 2020 until November-December 2021. At that point, many realized that the music was no longer playing. The FED hammered the last nail in the coffin of the bull market in February-March 2022, and that's when all the fun and the official bear cycle began. How do we know if the market has flipped and we're growing up again? Recommendations for PATIENT TRADERS 1. US PMI will come out of the crisis – current values are ATL from May 2020 2. The FED will do a soft landing, beat inflation and start lowering rates – very bullish signal. The important thing is to beat inflation, otherwise our bull market will be very short-lived, or the next bear market will be super painful. 3. DGS 1/5 will fall to spring 2020 values If you see all of this, then unpack your stackable piggy bank and get ready for a hot period, we will be back in the game and the market of universal profits. As practice shows, everyone will have 3 to 6 months to get into their positions and get ready to take off. Also, remember that the market can be irrational, the main thing for everyone is to let their strategy survive it. Markets are capable of being irrational longer than traders will be solvent. What to do now? We’ve tried to give an answer to the question in our previous article. And we still stick to this local position. This article will allow you to look at the crypto market within macro analysis and the overall picture. But then everything depends on you! Tell us if you study the macroeconomics rates, which indicators you use and which topics you would like to discuss! Don't forget to check links below and check our trading terminal! NFA & DYOR
by Samura0x
42
Gold is bullish but not chasing up Life is like a dream, doomed to gain and lose, encounter and parting are all coincidences of happy memories. And that coincidence, in the watery time, is like a summer flower, blooming in our life with its truest and most splendid posture. Sometimes, you feel tired because you think too much. The world is unpredictable, don't be too obsessed when encountering things, no one can take anything away, so why bother to be entangled in a certain time and a certain thing. The overall trend of gold was still very strong yesterday, the Asian market rose and the European market continued, so the retracement before the US market was to lure short positions, and the long orders near 1834 also ushered in a rebound very accurately. However, the market fell back after the high pressure of 1845 before the test, and the short-term daily line mid-rail pressure is effective, so don't easily chase more before it breaks through. Bollinger bands on the daily line show signs of flattening, but the lower support is located near the bonding position of the moving average, which is around 1826. This is a strong support within the day, and it is not far from the top-to-bottom conversion position of 1822. If you are long, this is a good position Location, in view of the shocks seen within the day, here is where you can try to go more. From the point of view of H4, the rising structure has been broken at present, so don’t be in a hurry to go long. The price of gold will continue to fall, and the pressure above 1845 is also obvious. At present, the price of gold is in shock again, and the long and short are not strong. And H4's back stepping low is at 1822, if it does not break within the day, continue to look at the strength, so if you go long, you can buy more in batches at 1826 and 1822, lose 1817, and look at 1835-40. The focus is still on the strength of the European market. One more retracement before the market; the European market is weak, and the rebound before the US market is empty! My friends are welcome to discuss with me, if you have better suggestions, you can leave a message to me MCX:GOLD1!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Crazylambboy
56
EUR/USD dips as eurozone inflation easesThe euro remains busy and is down 0.40% on Thursday, trading at 1.0624. This follows the euro gaining 0.90% a day earlier. The euro's moves today and yesterday have in large part been dictated by inflation releases. Earlier today, Eurozone Final CPI came in at 8.6% for January, down sharply from 9.2% in December. Headline inflation eased for a third straight month, after hitting a peak of 10.6% in October. The core rate has not followed this downward trend and ticked higher to 5.3% y/y in January, up from 5.2% in December. The improvement in headline inflation eased worries that the ECB would have to deliver another 50-basis point hike in May, after the expected 50-bp increase at the March 16 meeting. These concerns that the ECB would remain aggressive pushed the euro almost 1% higher on Wednesday after German inflation edged up to 9.3% in February, up from 9.2% in January and above the estimate of 9.0%. The usual suspects were at play in driving inflation higher - food and energy. The government has provided energy subsidies, but energy prices still shot up in January by 23.1% y/y, while food prices surged 20.2% in January y/y. In addition to the German inflation report, France and Spain also recorded unexpectedly strong inflation. The eurozone data calendar will wrap up with German and eurozone Service PMIs, which have been showing improvement and are back in expansion territory, an indication of a pickup in economic activity. The German PMI is expected at 51.3 and the eurozone PMI at 52.3 points. In the US, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish with its message that higher rates are on the way. Fed member Bostic reiterated this stance, saying that the terminal rate would be between 5% and 5.25% and have to remain at that level well into 2024. The markets have priced in a terminal rate of 5.50%, but worries over sticky inflation have led to some calls for rates to rise as high as 6%. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0655. Below, there is support at 1.0596 There is resistance at 1.0765 and 1.0894
by OANDA
5
BTC and the key level of 25,200. How to make money?Hello, everyone! Today we’re going to break down two things: the probable key level for BTC this year, 25,200, and what you can expect from the market in general if you have a medium or long term strategy. A short story to begin The 25,200 level was formed in early August 2022, when everyone stopped talking about the bankruptcies of 3AC, Celsius and several other companies. You could consider the 25,200 level a fair price for a neutral market in the current world economic realities. Then we had a fall due to the aggravation of relations between China and Taiwan, a small increase due to the Ethereum Merge in September and the FTX/Alameda crisis, panic sellings and general apathy. From this moment the set of positions began. It lasted almost 2 months until January 9, 2023. Then a local bullish run to 25,200 began, with one stop at 20,000-21,000. And now we hit the 25,200 level again and no one knows what will happen next THE MAIN PART 1. All of the collapses and bankruptcies of 2022 were a surprise to all players. Each new crash was a great surprise and forced all participants to actively rebalance their positions. The example is Jump Trading and its fiat balance that was ~50% at the time of the FTX crash, even though the normal fiat rate since the Terra/Luna crash was ~30%. In other words, even the biggest players were influenced by the market and depended on the situation. 2. There is every reason to believe that it was the big players who were the main contributors to the November-January position set. After the FTX collapse, the market reached the peak of fear, the only thing that could push the market down even more at that moment was Binance/Coinbase fall, or crypto ban in the USA. Considering how quickly Binance worked and how actively Coinbase was in the process of personnel reorganization, the probability of their fall was extremely low. Also, all regulators mostly blamed SBF and executive team FTX/Alameda; there were no ideas to ban crypto in the rhetoric of regulators. Spoiler: it was introduced later and partially in the form of a stacking ban for US users so the companies would not be cheeky and would think about what they were doing. In general, the risks and probability of a bigger crisis were very low and the big teams understood it very well, that is why they started to set positions. 3. Logically, it will be clear that the level of 25,200 is most likely the most favorable level for the large participants – the beneficiaries of the fall. The price near the level of 25,200 allows you to easily sell those positions that were not sold after the collapse of 3AC/Celsius and the fall of FTX. Which in turn will take some time. After that it is only left to figure out what to do with the bad positions from the time of the Terra/Luna fall, to correct the balance of assets and build a smooth strategy for the future. OUR BETS The 25,200 level is completely artificial and created to sell over margin longs from 16,000 - 17,000 and sell problematic positions from the 3AC/FTX times. After selling positions at the current level, the market will go down to 20,000 - 21,700. After that, within 3-4 months, we will get to 30,000 - 32,000. We should expect some interesting price movements, namely long/short squeezes. The big players have learned to work with the risk of bankruptcy and the risk of regulators' influence: Genesis and the SEC bans are the best examples of that. Besides, there are very few of these risks left and a skilled team of analysts will be able to keep track of them and come up with strategies to work on them. Asian liquidity will be a growth driver. Share with us your forecasts on BTC and tell us what topics you want to be analyzed by our team , and we will write about it. Don't forget to check our links below and check our trading pairs. Thanks for reading!
by Samura0x
41
AUDJPY: Bullish Outlook as Yen Continues its Bearish Bias?Hi Fellow Forex Trader, Here's a Technical outlook on Aussie Yen! Price Action Analysis AUDJPY has broken out of the bearish trendline and the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. The MACD Indicator also made a golden cross, indicating a possible upside momentum to the target area. All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below! "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the Aussie Yen"
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
9
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the uptrend channel in which the BTC price is moving. Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here in the first place it is worth marking the support zone from $ 22963 to $ 20415, then we have support at $ 20415, the next support is $ 19187, but when we fall below, we can see a drop around the very strong support zone from $ 17590 to $ 15502 . Looking the other way, we can determine the places of resistance in a similar way. We will first mark the resistance zone from $23,700 to $25,604, when we manage to break it, we have a second resistance at $28,306, then the price has strong resistance at $31,806. As we can see on the EMA Cross 10 and 30, they indicate the continuation of the uptrend The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy for a new move, the MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but we are still in the upper part of the range.
by cryptodailyuk
9
March 1 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart Bitcoin is down 0.59% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $23,022.42. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around the 20-day exponential moving average for the past few days, suggesting neither bulls or bears are willing to give up this level. The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint, suggesting the market momentum is neutral. If the BTC/USDT pair maintain above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will attempt to push the price above $24,000. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the price could drop to $22,800. Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline French National Assembly Passes New Crypto Registration Rules for Firms The French National Assembly passed a set of licensing rules for crypto firms operating in the country. Under the new rules, French companies offering cryptocurrency services must attain a registration more robust than currently offered from the Financial Markets Authority (AMF). The new rules will apply to companies registered after July 2023. Companies that are already registered with the AMF, following existing anti-money laundering provisions, will be able to continue to operate as they are until the end of the transition period which MiCA offers, likely in 2026.
by BingX
6
Gold: Anticipate temporary correctionA notable impulsive movement has been observed in the gold market, with the price surging from 1808 to 1831. My technical analysis suggests that the price has entered a profit-taking zone, which could prompt buyers to offload some of their positions before resuming their purchases. Consequently, there is a possibility that the price could experience a temporary decline to the 1824-1820 range, or possibly lower, before the bullish trend continues.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Samuel124
29
Apple -> Is This The Top?Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . From a weekly timeframe Apple stock just recently tested and already rejected a very obvious previous weekly resistance area which was turned resistance once again. You can also see that we are having a bullish weekly ema crossover, however I personally think that we will retest the next support area at $135 before then creating the continuation towards the upside. On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for a clear break and retest of the previous support zone which would then be turned resistance before I then do expect a next short term impulse towards the downside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by basictradingtv
49