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EUR/USD Short and NZD/CAD ShortEUR/USD Short • If price corrects and a larger one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
30
The Implications of Nasdaq 100 RebalancingCME: Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), E-Mini S&P Technology Select Sector Futures ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Since its inception over 38 years ago, it has become the world’s preeminent large-cap growth index. So far in 2023, Nasdaq 100 has surged 42%, far outpacing the 18.7% gain from the S&P 500 and the 6.4% return by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This big rally has prompted the Nasdaq to implement an index "Special Rebalance". What’s going on here? Nasdaq-100: Market-cap weighted Index with a Twist In the world of stock market indices, the two most common construction methodologies are equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted. The Nasdaq 100 is market-cap weighted, meaning the weight of each component is based on its market cap as a percentage of the aggregate market cap of the index. The higher the market cap, the bigger the weight. Nasdaq performs regular quarterly weight adjustments in March, June, September, and December. To prevent the index from becoming too top-heavy and unbalanced, Nasdaq imposes weight limits in its Nasdaq Index Weight Adjustment Guidelines. • No security weight may exceed 14% of the index. • If the aggregate weight of the five largest market capitalizations is more than 40%, they will be adjusted to 38.5%. • No security outside the largest five market cap companies may have a final index weight exceeding 4.4%. The list below shows index weight as of June 30th, the last quarterly adjustment, and the most recent market cap as of July 21st, for the top ten companies in Nasdaq 100: • No. 1, Microsoft (MSFT): market cap $2,556bn, index weight 12.92% • No. 2, Apple (AAPL): $3,019bn (12.57%) • No. 3, Nvidia (NVDA): $1,094bn (6.94%) • No. 4, Amazon (AMZN): $1,334bn (6.85%) • No. 5, Tesla (TSLA): $830bn (4.25%) • No. 6, Meta (META): $756bn (4.22%) • No. 7, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): $1,560bn (3.71%) • No. 8, Alphabet Class C (GOOGL): $1,599bn (3.64%) • No. 9, Broadcom (AVGO): $373bn (2.40%) • No. 10, PepsiCo (PEP): $263bn (1.70%) • Top-5: market cap $8,833bn, index weight: 43.53% • Top-10: market cap $13,384bn, index weight: 59.20% • Nasdaq 100 (^NDX): aggregate market cap $25,990bn The Top-5 has already breached the 40% mark and will be brought down to 38.5% in the “Special Rebalance” to address the concerns of over-concentration: “A Special Rebalance may be conducted at any time based on the weighting restrictions described in the Index Rebalance Procedure if it is determined to be necessary to maintain the integrity of the Index.” How will this Rebalancing Impact Investors? According to the Nasdaq, over $500 billion in exchange traded funds (ETF) are tied to the Nasdaq-100, including Invesco QQQ ETF, iShares Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF and ProShares UltraPro QQQ, just to name a few. If each fund tracks the Nasdaq 100 closely and responds to the rebalancing immediately, the Top-5 stocks in the portfolio will be reduced by 5% (from 43.5% to 38.5%). This would create short-term selling pressure in tens of billions of dollars. To put the figures in context: although the Top-5 companies have an aggregate market cap of nearly $9 trillion, they have a modest daily float. Based on my calculation, the average daily transaction value over the past three months was only $77 billion, less than 1% of their market valuation, with 337 million shares changing hands. Leading up to the rebalancing, we are seeing larger trade volume and higher volatility: • On July 21st, Microsoft had a trade volume of 69.3 million shares, vs. its 3-month average volume of 29.3 million shares; • Nvidia: trade volume 96.2m vs. 3-mo average 49.3m • Alphabet: trade volume 55.5m vs. 3-mo average 26.4m • Amazon: trade volume 69.5m vs. 3-mo average 63.6m Since peaking at 15,932 on July 19th, Nasdaq 100 has trended down in the last three trading sessions, currently trading at 15,455 on the morning of July 24th. Arbitrage Opportunity between Technology Indexes The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing is a unique issue with the Nasdaq 100 index. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of these companies and has no impact on other Tech sector stock indexes which also include the same component companies. The S&P Technology Select Sector (XAK) has over 90% correlation with Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) historically. The former includes Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, but not Alphabet or Amazon. In the past five years, XAK outperformed MNQ by 40%. In the past five trading days, MNQ underperformed XAK by 1%, likely due to the impact of the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing. In the long run, Nasdaq 100 rebalance will dilute the impact of the largest stocks in the index. Strong growth in Big Tech will be fully represented in XAK but capped in MNQ. This, in my opinion, would result in a widening spread between XAK and MNQ. XAK futures contract is based on $100 x S&P Select Sector Technology Index. At 1,786.6, each XAK contract has a notional value of $178,660 on July 21st. CME requires an initial margin of $9,500. MNQ contract is based on $2 x Nasdaq 100 Index. At 15,555, each MNQ has a notional value of $31,110. CME requires an initial margin of $1,680. Based on the relative notional values, someone bullish on the spread could establish a trade with 1 long XAK and 6 short MNQ. Using the last five days as an example: • If XAK increases by 1%, the long end of the trade would show a gain of $1,787 (17.9 x 100). If, during the same period, MNQ is flat, the short end would have no gain or loss. This spread combination would have a net gain of $1,787. • Using initial margins of $19,580 as a cost base, this equates to a one-week return of +9.1%. For comparison, if a trader invests in a Nasdaq 100 ETF and the index gains 1%, the return would also be 1%. Trading in futures comes with a leverage that would supercharge the gain if you were on the right direction. The spread trade would loss money if MNQ has a stronger performance than XAK. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:XAK1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
AUDNZD LONDON OPEN SHORT (SIGNALS)📉AUDNZD SELL 📉 💰Take Profit 1 - 1.0832 💰Take Profit 2 - 1.0782 💰Take Profit 3 - 1.0732 ❌ Stop loss - 1.1012 Here is my analysis of AUDNZD: The AUDNZD pair has been in a bearish trend for the past few weeks, and it is currently trading near the bottom of its range. The current spot rate is 1.0912, and a sell entry point of 1.0912 is just above the recent low of 1.0892. There are a few reasons why AUDNZD could continue to fall in the near term. First, the AUD is generally seen as a commodity currency, and it has been weakening against the NZD in recent weeks as commodity prices have fallen. Second, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates more slowly than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which could weaken the AUD against the NZD. Finally, the NZD has been supported by the recent decline in risk appetite. However, there are also some risks to consider before entering a trade on AUDNZD. The forex market is volatile, and there is always the risk of a reversal. Additionally, the economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand is uncertain, which could impact the price of AUDNZD. Overall, I think AUDNZD is a good pair to trade for those who are looking for a short-term bearish trend. However, it is important to remember that the forex market is volatile, and there is always the risk of a reversal. Here are some additional factors that you may want to consider before entering a trade on AUDNZD: The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand. The level of volatility in the forex market. The price of commodities, such as oil and gold.
Short
by SMARTRISKMINDSET
30
Tesla's Q2 2023:Accelerating into the Future with Record RevenueIn the recently released Q2 2023 earnings report, Tesla Inc. presented a record quarter on multiple fronts, showcasing its resilience and innovation in a challenging macroeconomic environment. The electric vehicle and clean energy company reported a 9.6% operating margin, GAAP operating income of $2.4 billion, GAAP net income of $2.7 billion, and non-GAAP net income of $3.1 billion. Despite price reductions in Q1 and early Q2, Tesla's operating margin remained robust, reflecting the company's ongoing cost reduction efforts, successful production ramp-ups in Berlin and Texas, and strong performance in the Energy and Services & Other sectors. The company's cash and investments increased by $0.7 billion in Q2, reaching a total of $23.1 billion. Tesla's Cybertruck factory tooling is progressing as planned, with the company currently producing RC (release candidates) builds. The Model Y, one of Tesla's most popular models, became the best-selling vehicle globally in Q1, demonstrating the company's growing market dominance. The company's total automotive revenues reached $21,268 million, marking a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 46%. The Energy generation and storage sector also saw significant growth, with revenues of $1,509 million, a YoY increase of 74%. Services and other revenue rose by 47% YoY to $2,150 million. Overall, Tesla's total revenues for Q2 2023 were $24,927 million, a 47% YoY increase. In terms of production, Tesla manufactured 19,489 Model S/X vehicles and 460,211 Model 3/Y vehicles in Q2 2023, representing YoY increases of 19% and 90% respectively. The total deliveries of Model S/X were 19,225, a YoY increase of 19%. The total deliveries of Model 3/Y were 446,915, a YoY increase of 87%. Tesla's installed annual vehicle capacity continues to expand. In California, the capacity for Model S/X is 100,000, and for Model 3/Y it's 550,000. In Shanghai, the capacity for Model 3/Y is over 750,000. In Berlin, the capacity for Model Y is 375,000. In Texas, the capacity for Model Y is over 250,000. The company also highlighted its commitment to AI development, with the production of Dojo training computers commencing. This development is expected to satisfy Tesla's immense neural net training needs using in-house designed Dojo hardware, which will enable faster and cheaper neural net training. For new Model 3 or Y customers, Tesla launched the "Get To Know Your Tesla" experience. This initiative allows users to adjust their seats, mirrors, and steering wheel, set up the phone key, and learn about topics such as regenerative braking. In conclusion , Tesla's Q2 2023 shareholder deck paints a picture of a company that continues to innovate and grow despite external challenges. With a focus on cost reduction, new product development, investments in R&D, continuous product improvement, and the generation of free cash flow, Tesla is well-positioned for long-term success. Read more in the comment section...
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by financialflagship
42
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
TSLA Approaches Major Resistance and May Stall into July 21Primary Chart: TSLA on Weekly Time Frame with a Downtrend Line from the All-Time High and Fibonacci and Measured-Move Levels Preliminary Comments TSLA is poised to stall soon, perhaps into July 21. By definition, a stall does not necessitate a crash or major trend reversal (at the primary degree of trend). A major reversal downward (crash) is always possible especially once shorts have been decimated—major downward reversals seem to always wait for clearing out of hedging and shorts, right? Although a major trend reversal could occur here given major resistance levels just overhead on higher time frames, no one has a crystal ball. Finding the time and price components of such a major reversal can be exceedingly difficult (note the conclusion section of this article about probabilities). And no one who were to have a crystal ball that worked properly would share it. And a securities regulator would be sniffing around for insider trading for sure with too many trades lining up too perfectly especially before major news catalysts. Humor aside, trying to be too clever by calling the exact top is a misplaced endeavor. But it can be prudent to analyze the charts and consider the idea of vulnerability for a trend’s continuation in the short-to-intermediate term, i.e., whether the move might encounter major resistance that could at a minimum cause a mean reversion or retracement of the recent rally . Trend Analysis The charts don’t lie. TSLA’s intermediate-term trend since January 6, 2023 remains upward. Similarly, short-term (2-6 weeks) and intraday trends remain upward. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered over a 2-3 year period, while the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains firmly upward. 1. Secular trend (since 2010): uptrend 2. Primary trend (since 2020/2021): sideways trend (range) 3. Intermediate / secondary trend (since early 2023): uptrend 4. short-term trend: uptrend near crucial resistance 5. intraday trends: uptrend near crucial resistance Supplementary Chart A: Primary Trend Supplementary Chart B: Secular Trend The intermediate term trend has run fast and furious for 1H 2023 (since the Jan. 6, 2023 low). That alone is not enough to expect a reversal. Shorting something merely because it seems to have risen too far is a well-known trading mistake comparable to catching a falling knife in a downtrend. Shorting powerful uptrends is not an easy way to make a living. But several charts suggest vulnerability for TSLA’s rally at this level. This comes right as earning will be reported this week along with a major monthly options expiration on July 21. Earnings reports like TSLA's upcoming one present a binary risk event that could stretch prices significantly in either direction, or it could a whipsaw price in both directions before settling on a final directional move (see the section below titled “Trend vs. Fundamentals.”) Supplementary Chart C shows that TSLA’s price is nearing a crucial Fibonacci level on a linear chart. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($299.05) of its entire decline from its all-time high into the early January 2023 low. Coincidentally, this level shows confluence with other important resistance levels shown on the chart such as the down trendline from the all-time high. (Some prefer Fibonacci levels adjusted for a logarithmic chart, which is not shown. The next relevant upside Fibonacci level on a log chart, however, is the .786 of the entire decline at $306, which is not far from the .618 level at 295.05. Supplementary Chart C If the .618 Fibonacci retracement is overcome and held (not just a false breakout), this suggests prices may run higher to at least $314.67 or the next higher Fibonacci level at $347. But these are upside levels conditioned solely on the .618 retracement being overcome and held. Next, consider the down trendline from TSLA's all-time high. This is being approached at around $300, right were significant call OI exists. Trendlines can be somewhat rigid measures of trend, but they can provide some value especially when other support / resistance levels coincide with the trendline. The down trendline from TSLA's all-time high runs right into the measured-move zone, shown by the blue circle on Supplementary Chart D.1. Supplementary Chart D.1 Some traders prefer to look only at logarithmic charts, though here it doesn't add much to the technical picture since the trendline is quite close to where it lies on the linear chart. Supplementary Chart D.2 Finally, some bearish divergences in momentum and price/volume indicators suggest that price has become quite stretched right at a time when TSLA has reached some major resistance levels. Supplementary Chart E shows the Elder Force Index (EFI), a useful indicator that displays a combination of volume and price, weighing the extent of each price change along with the extent of volume. It tends to pick up divergences in the "force" or commitment behind a move with more sensitivity than RSI or other common momentum indicators, but with increased sensitivity often comes more noise (more false signals) which can be helped to some extent through indicator adjustment. Nevertheless, here is what that indicator shows for TSLA on the daily timeframe: Supplementary Chart E As TSLA has made higher highs, it has done so with less force and commitment for each high, creating a divergence between higher price highs and lower EFI highs. TSLA may make a new YTD high this week, and if so, it will be important to see where the EFI high prints for that new high. Given how low EFI is currently, it would take a lot of volume and price change to move the high to exceed the prior EFIs (erasing the divergence). In SquishTrade's view, EFI is unlikely to erase both the June EFI high and the January EFI high even if TSLA runs to $300-$320 post earnings. Supplementary Chart F shows RSI and ROC, two common momentum indicators which most readers understand well. ROC shows a series of three highs that each make a successively lower high while price made higher highs at the same time: January 2023, June 2023, and July 2023. RSI only shows a series of two highs where price made a higher high and RSI made a lower high. Supplementary Chart F Downside Targets TSLA's price seems poised to pullback / retrace at a minimum. But referring to downside targets may seem a bit premature as price hasn't confirmed even a short-term reversal or the start of a retracement / consolidation within the intermediate trend yet. The technical conditions for a retracement are present, so if confirmation lower does occur in the next week or so, price can fall to trend support, however one decides to measure that within one's trading system. Based on persistently and deeply inverted yield curves, many astute market players may be looking for more than just a retracement or consolidation within the intermediate uptrend. They want more than mean reversion, and that is understandable. Should TSLA followers expect that now? Today, July 15, 2023, confidence cannot exist about an impending trend reversal on higher time frames. Why? A major reversal where price retests / breaks January 2023 lows will likely coincide with recessionary economic data (e.g., rising UE rates), drastically changing EPS estimates based on disappointing earnings reports, and/or unexpectedly high interest rates across the curve because of sticky inflation won't budge further downward (the recent CPI print came in at 3% for headline but 4.8% for core for June 2023). Note: Fundamentals are discussed in greater depth in the next section below. But economic data has continued to come in better than expected. Recent real GDP print for Q1 2023 was recently raised to 2% and labor markets remain persistently tight as the Fed even has noted in its recent pressers. Inflation has cooled for June but this may result from basing effects. Most importantly, trend structure on the weekly and daily time frames (intermediate and short-term) has not been broken. Until the intermediate trend structure is decisively broken, forecasting a major top / trend reversal is rash and unfounded from a technical viewpoint. This intermediate-term trend structure is the up trendline from January 2023 lows or some other more dynamic or flexible measures of trend. So with the idea that price can run a bit higher before any retracement—since we haven't yet seen a confirmation lower yet—these downside targets remain conditioned on a short-term trend reversal. For now, the targets also must be considered corrective retracements / mean-reversion targets within the context of the current trend until the evidence proves otherwise. Conservative Target: $245-$250 Moderate Target: $232-$238 Aggressive Target: $199-$218 Trends vs. Fundamentals A purely technical analyst or technically oriented trend trader tends to consider only the trend and technical evidence supporting that objective. At critical junctures after retracements / corrective moves, this means favoring trend continuation rather than a reversal until the evidence says otherwise. And pure trend following means seeing the odds as favoring mean reversion when a trend gets too extended or stretched rather than reversal. Ambiguity as to trend on varying time frames often confounds the discussion of trends. This is why it's important to remain precise and focused on time frames. For example, a long term secular trend in a given index can be upward while a primary trend can be downward or sideways (retracing / consolidating within the secular uptrend) while an intermediate trend can be upward (retracing or consolidating the primary downtrend)—and intraday traders levered up on calls and riding the short-term rip may be so hyperfocused on a rip in the short term that they dismiss a long-term analyst’s accurate characterization of corrective rally within a primary downtrend. This is just a hypothetical example of how vagueness around terminology and time frames doesn’t can obfuscate the proper technical approach to a given security. As discussed, TSLA’s trend right now is upward on the intermediate trend and minor (short-term) trends. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered from 2-3 years ago. And the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains upward. But may a trend trader peek outside the trend? That is a complicated question without a definite answer. For those wanting to explore whether it’s prudent to look at non-technical evidence outside the scope of the trend (e.g., considering the fundamentals and the broader macro), the following post offers some cost-benefit analysis and suggestions: For those who wish to avoid being influenced by fundamental information, please skip this paragraph and read on to the next one. Andrew Dickson, the founder of Albert Bridge Capital and CIO of Alpha Europe Funds recently noted the following incongruities (downtrends) in EPS-estimate trends vs. price trends: 1. In late 2022, TSLA’s sell-side analysts expected $6.34 EPS in 2023 (about 9 months ago estimates). 2. After TSLA reported delivery numbers in early July, Dickson noted that “despite today's apparent 4% rev beat (implied from delivery-numbers) for Q2, 2023 EPS expectations have plummeted to $3.50. So earnings expectations for TSLA are now down -55% in 9 months and yet the stock is up +15%.” 3. He concluded that "the 2023 P/E multiple has expanded from 38x to 79x, or by 107%." Dickson’s comments show that price is often not driven by fundamentals. Exactly what was priced in when the stock plummeted to $100 in January? And what is different now has nearly doubled off the lows? Or maybe the question is whether the data that gets priced in has different (and ever changing) weightings depending on the type of data. For example, maybe the data that affects price is most heavily weighted toward liquidity, capital flows, sentiment, seasonality, rather than fundamentals. But David Lundgren, a combined technical and fundamental analyst for whom SquishTrade has utmost respect, highly regards technical analysis, and especially favors technicals in the short / intermediate term, but says that fundamentals always matter in the long run. Here is a quotation from Lundgren from notes I've taken on his commentary in interviews and articles: "In the long-term, actual fundamentals will simply overwhelm any short-term technicals, emotions, sentiments driving a security or market price action." Concluding Comments Traders think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Further, traders' time frames, risk management, and position sizes vary dramatically, which is why it seems imprudent to blindly follow another person’s signal service (whether paid or free). One very knowledgeable TV follower of mine has shorted TSLA with a position size that gives him a sizable margin of error. In other words, he can wait and allow significant fluctuations in price before getting shaken out of the position. My inference from our conversations is that his short thesis is based on deeply and persistently inverted yield curves, volatility being at major lows, deteriorating fundamentals at TSLA and other broader macro problems. But macro and fundamentals can take a great deal of time to unfold, i.e., they do not play out immediately, and if they did, the big short should have been weeks or months ago. This year everyone thought a recession would be here by now, including experts with long-term experience managing or advising multi-billion dollar funds. This does not mean my fellow trader must be wrong. His thesis might yet succeed with time and patience, or it may yet experience more pressure or even be stopped out. This is why position size, risk management, and time frames matter. Before entering a trade or investment, one must consider time frame, position size, risk tolerance, risk management, technical or fundamental evidence, and an invalidation or stop level (which defines risk and relates integrally to position size). Shorter-term traders with leveraged, derivative, or supersized short positions would have already gotten crushed trying to short TSLA or other mega cap leaders the last few weeks or months.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
175
XRP: FINALLY💥 RIPPLE Victory in SEC CaseHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 Congratulations to all the XRP HODLERS 🤩🥂 (quick recap) ...The SEC case against Ripple was a legal battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP cryptocurrency. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging that XRP is a security and that Ripple had violated securities laws by selling XRP without registering it with the SEC. Ripple Labs denied the SEC's allegations, arguing that XRP is not a security but a digital currency. The case went to trial in February 2023, and on July 12, 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled in favor of Ripple Labs. Torres found that the SEC had failed to adequately prove that XRP is a security, and she dismissed the case. The ruling is a major victory for Ripple Labs and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. It could have far-reaching implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States. 👉The SEC failed to prove that XRP is a security. 👉The ruling could have far-reaching implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States. 👉The ruling is a major victory for Ripple Labs and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. This furthermore confirms my bias for the beginning of AltSeason 2023, check it out here: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
KRAKEN:XRPUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
116
COIN H&S Breakout ContinuesCoinbase continues to gain after breaking up and out of the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, price is up +10% today - trade was initiated last week upon seeing the inverse head and shoulders breakout. Due to the pop in price today I've raised my stop-loss level to $85.75 in case price reverses on profit taking. This stop level ensures that I exit the trade with a gain if price reverses, while at the same time leaves some room for volatility if price begins to fluctuate. Lower PPO and TDI indicators are still reading bullish, but the green RSI line of the TDI indicator is now above the 80 level which is considered overbought meaning a correction to the downside can be expected. Buy Price: $79.21 Stop-Loss: $85.75 Take Profit: $136-ish Gain if I get stopped out at $85.75: +8.2% Gain if price reaches take-profit level: +71% This stop level will remain adaptive to price movement, price has gained another 3% in the few minutes it took me to write this and COIN is now up +13% on the day.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by PrepForProfit
25
NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your ChanceIn a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping: NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few. That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal. But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap. As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge. Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party. If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland. Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade. Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really. None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back. The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation. When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long? A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target. The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you. The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq. And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high. So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high. Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump. NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%. The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap. But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary. Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation." Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle. So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations. For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early." And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things. If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by LordWrymouth
159
Monero Cup and Handle Just flipped the Monthly SARIntroduction I have been waiting for an OG coin alt season for over a year now. A lot of the top 10 or top 20 coins from 2015, 2017 and 2017 massively over performed compared to bitcoin and Ethereum and have had to go through an even longer cooling off period than those cryptos did. Monero has dropped to the 20s in coinmarketcap.com’s rankings and some of the coins I favor as trades and ideologically are a lot lower. I got a bit excited around February/march of 2022 but did not get the follow through that I was hoping for. Now that I have see a flip of the monthly parabolic SAR I am a lot more optimistic that a high probability move to the upside is beginning in Monero and my choice alts. Since they are lower down in market cap one cannot build a position as easily as one could in a top 10 or 20 coin. There is a lot of wicks and slippage when entering a position too enthusiastically or carelessly. I cannot just market into a margin position without creating a wick that immediately puts me under water and messes up my margin level. But if I am right the gains will be worth it. Main Analysis The Parabolic SAR is quite a nice indicator on the higher time frames. It was literally named Stop And Reverse and was designed to find places where price can take a U turn. If you are expecting a multi-month or multi-year to happen based on whatever (analysis, fundamenals, etc) a flip of the SAR helps clear “technical resistance” much in the same way clearing the 200SMA in a bear market is a sign that a bull market is brewing. Another technical resistance we have cleared is the resistance line of the flag. We popped through quite nicely and have been going sideways for about 10 days after the initial move began. While there is a chance that we can retest the flag’s previous resistance as support I think it is more likely that price pumps. A lot of biases of a lot of traders should have flipped to bullish with the SAR. The bull season is still in the early stages and there is still a lot of doubt but generally the bulls will be winning. Other Charts The monthly chart for both other times the Parabolic SAR flipped bullish look amazing when viewed with Heiken Ashi candles. Massive 50-70 percent pull backs don’t seem to matter anymore when viewed on the HA chart. The idea that I can get into this trade the first week it is happening is pretty exciting. The Parabolic SAR is usually used with some momentum indicator and the inventor of the Parabolic SAR liked to use another of his creations, the ADX. Here is a simplified version. Looks promising. The chart below shows the long term SMA situation. Price is winding up for its next move between the 200 and 100 SMAs. I think it will be to the upside in a big way. My channels chart set up has the gaussian and Keltner channel (1 and 2 ATR multipliers). Price is struggling at the guassian midline and I think we will see an upside resolution. The chart also shows that the keltner midline (the 20 EMA is a good place to buy pull backs on this uptrend if it is similar to the 2016 uptrend. Lots of people like to talk about price action but don’t spend enough time talking about volume action. One of the best indicators for volume is the On Balance Volume and with some moving averages it is really easy to tell when the long term buying and selling pressure has flipped. I am very optimistic that XMR’s OBV SMAs will flip bullish. Since volume can vary by exchange here is Binance as well Where is the money going to come from? Money has to come from somewhere to pump XMR and the other OG coins I favor. I think it is going to be rotated out from the ETH ecosystem. Many times a W pattern will have price pump to a double top or even all time highs and then price returns to the rise between the valleys. The chart below shows that both XMR and LTC had price return to the rise between the valley. Also, my linked ideas will have my bearish post on NDX. I think the equity markets will be howling here shortly as price retraces deeper. My plan I am looking to add to my positions with a simple pull back strategy. When both the Log MACD and Stoch are below zero know we have just had a pull back and that pull back will have generated some support and resistance lines. I will look to buy when price is again above that resistance line and catch some momentum. This will help me not buy and have the price continue to fall which is always nice. I will not be buying the bottoms though. I do not like the idea of buying things and having it be the same price six months to a year later. Much nicer to buy the pull back and watch price climb out of the hole and not return. I have this planned for a lot of the OG coins, many of which are now in obscurity. Zcash and Dash are in the 70s and 90s. Very low market cap. XPR, BCH and others are still rather big but not as exciting but they are going to be bought on pull backs just the same. XMR also topped over 200 days before total 2 did on this last uptrend. I have to be prepared to rotate out of XMR and into other coins if XMR reaches its major targets.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by This_Guhy
25
Grains outlook hangs in the balance of the Black Sea Grain deal The failed rebellion by the Wagner group over the June 24th weekend brought to light not only the ineptitude of the Russian top military command but also the carefully crafted image of President Putin as the guarantor of stability. Putin’s assertion that the quick end of the 24-hour revolt had shown the unity of Russians behind him was contradicted by footage of adoring crowds cheering Prigozhin and his fighters as they came out of a southern city they had occupied. It is possible that Putin could step up the escalation between Russia and Ukraine to re-establish his position which currently appears weakened. The recent political turmoil in Russia lowers the probability of the Black Sea Grain deal being extended beyond mid-July (current deal expires on July 18th). No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling Even prior to the failed coup in Russia, pessimism had been expressed by both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. One senior Ukrainian diplomat has even spoken of a 99% probability of Russia withdrawing from the agreement. Russia has repeatedly threatened to quit the deal, complaining that obstacles remain to its own exports of food and fertilizer. It has also demanded the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed on June 6. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as July. Grains outlook clouded by Black Sea Grain deal The original agreement brokered on 22 July 2022, by the United Nations and Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea helped to address the global food security crisis and lower grains prices. Participants on the agricultural markets remain anxious on the extension of the current deal and it could lend additional tailwinds to grains prices. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, wheat, corn and soybeans saw a 21%, 43% and 35% decline in short positioning underscoring a shift in sentiment towards weather uncertainty and geopolitical risk premiums. Top wheat producers forecast weak supply outlook owing to adverse weather conditions The prospects for the wheat crop in key producer countries has disappointed of late owing to adverse weather conditions. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES). Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. On the flip side, Canada and Ukrainian wheat supply forecasts are positive. According to Statistics Canada, 26.9 million acres have been planted with wheat – not only is this the highest figure in 22 years, it is also 0.4 million acres more than the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected . The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) predicts significantly higher yields this year, meaning that the crop – contrary to what has been expected so far – could actually turn out to be higher than last season. However Ukrainian farmers are likely to struggle to export their grain owing to the uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea grains corridor. Corn market remains bullish Dry weather in the US and Europe has seen the condition of the corn and soybean crop deteriorate resulting in a price positive environment for corn and soybean. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) in its latest crop progress report continues to highlight concerns for the US corn and soybean crop, given the current dry weather conditions. The USDA rates 50% of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition compared to 67% seen at the same stage last year. Moreover, the rating of the corn crop is the lowest seen for this time of year since 1988. This implies that the USDA’s optimistic forecast of 15.3bn bushels for the us corn crop in 2023/24 will hardly prove reasonable any longer. The National Centres for Environmental Prediction said it expects many parts of the Corn Belt that have been turning dry over the past month will get more rain than usual for this time of year over the next two weeks marking a change from earlier indications that El Niño would limit rainfall for thirsty crops. Soybean is also facing a similar story with 51% of the soybean crop rated good-to-excellent condition compared to 65% at the same time last year . Growing pessimism over the extension of the Black Sea Grains deal beyond mid-July is also likely to lend an additional tailwind for corn and soybean. Weak Chinese imports through most of the 2022/23 season surged in May to over 14.8mmt of corn, wheat, and soybeans, which was the highest monthly total since June 2021 . However we would caution that a fairly muted crop-based biofuel quotas from the US Environmental Protection Agency could offset some of the strength in Chinese demand. The front end of the soybean futures curve has extended its backwardation, now providing investors a 6.4% roll yield compared to 0% last month . This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
7
FOMC Minutes in the Charts: EUR/USD & GBP/USDDuring their June meeting, minutes released on Wednesday indicated that almost all Federal Reserve officials expect further tightening in the future. Despite the majority's belief in upcoming rate hikes, policymakers chose not to increase rates due to concerns about over-tightening. They acknowledged the delayed impact of previous policies and other factors, which led them to skip the June meeting after implementing ten consecutive rate increases. Out of the 18 participants, all but two anticipated at least one rate hike to be appropriate within this year, while twelve members expected two or more hikes. The prevailing consensus that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of the July policy meeting has lent some strength to the US Dollar and exerted downward pressure on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The DXY (US Dollar Index) surged above 103.30, reaching its highest level of the week. EUR/USD further declined to the 1.0850 region. The outlook for the Euro has turned negative as the EUR/USD pair dropped below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). If the GBP/USD pair falls below 1.2700 and confirms that level as resistance, the next potential bearish targets could be 1.2680, 1.2658, 1.2647 according to fib retracement levels and previously pivot points.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Halfway thereWe're halfway through the year of 2023. Mega Cap earnings season begins in July. The 8 largest companies by market capitalization are AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BRK.B, META. Here's an 8 split frame, 6 month chart with financial data. AAPL 3.05 T +49% YTD Earnings 8/3/23 MSFT 2.53 T +42% YTD Earnings 7/25/23 GOOGL 1.53 T +36% YTD Earnings 7/25/23 AMZN 1.34 T +55% YTD Earnings 7/27/23 NVDA 1.04 T +189% YTD Earnings 8/23/23 TSLA 830 B +113% YTD Earnings 8/19/23 BRK.B 745 B +10% YTD Earnings 8/7/23 META 735 B +138% YTD Earnings 7/26/23 Revenue = The total amount of money brought in by a company's operations, measured over a set amount of time. EPS = Is calculated by subtracting any preferred dividends from a company's net income and dividing that amount by the number of shares outstanding. PE = The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. PB = The Price-to-book value (P/B) is the ratio of the market value of a company's shares (share price) over its book value of equity. PS = The price-to-sales P/S ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price by the underlying company's sales per share. FCF = Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets. Cash to debt ratio = The cash flow-to-debt ratio is the ratio of a company's cash flow from operations to its total debt. A ratio of 1 or greater is best, whereas a ratio of less than 1 shows that a firm isn't generating sufficient cash flow to meet its debt obligations. PEG ratio = The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. Generally, a PEG below 1 means a stock is undervalued. Current ratio = The current ratio is Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities. It's a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations or those due within one year. In general, a current ratio of 2 or higher is considered good, and anything lower than 2 is a cause for concern.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Options360
19
AAPL Upward Channel OverextensionAAPL has been leading the market over the past couple of months after running more than 55% from its recent bottom and hitting that mythic $3 trillion dollar market cap. For the past two months AAPL has been trading within a clear upward channel clearly respecting the top and bottom of the trend. AAPL has been making a series of higher lows and higher highs while making slight pullbacks to key demand levels. Last week AAPL finally broke up from the wedge pattern on the hourly to finally head up to test the top of the channel trend again. After the gap up and run last week AAPL is starting to look overextended on the hourly while we are also spotting a possible bearish divergence in the RSI forming. Careful going long on AAPL as so far it is being rejected at this supply zone and we have picked up bearish activity betting on a pullback to $191.50. Risk/reward doesn't favor going long as it is overextended even from EMAs. Bulls are looking for a break above the channel or $195, target $196.33 or our 0.619 fib extension. Bears are happy as long as AAPL doesn't break above the supply zone and remains below $195.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by optionsswing
21
Battle of the New EV NASDAQ ComponentsLucid and Rivian, both new components of the NASDAQ:NDX , have been showing up on the High-Volume Institutional Activity recently. NASDAQ:LCID has the beginnings of a bottom attempt developing with a Dark Pool buy zone emerging, but it's been slow-going for this EV company. Professional short-term trading is evident in the current run up, as it is in other EV companies this week, spurred by the bankruptcy of Lordstown Motors, many would say. NASDAQ:RIVN has a clearer Dark Pool buy zone developing at this bottoming level with the same Pro Trader footprint in the current run up. This type of bottom formation provides a sturdier support level--evidence of more conviction from the institutions? Both stocks have a lot of work to do to complete their bottoms for more than short-term trading at this time. Resistance AND competition are heavy ahead, as it's still early days in the race to dominance in EV Auto Manufacturing.
NASDAQ:LCID
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
12
APPLE ATH Fueled by Quintet PowerhousesHow did APPLE make a new ATH? In the fiscal year of 2022, Apple Inc. amassed a staggering revenue close to $400 billion. The tech behemoth’s financial forecast predicts an even more dazzling $450 billion by 2023. What’s at the nucleus of this financial prowess? Here’s a dissection of the five products and services that are the linchpins in Apple's revenue generation. 1. iPhone: The Standard-Bearer Since its inception in 2007, the iPhone has been the lodestar in Apple's stellar performance, consistently accounting for over half of the company’s revenue. There was a lull in the iPhone's sales during 2015-2020, but the fiscal years of 2021 and 2022 witnessed a robust resurgence. Could it be the worldwide lockdowns that reignited consumers' affinity for this beloved gadget? One wonders. Moreover, Apple's unceasing innovation has been a catalyst in this resurgence. The company has been adept at understanding and adapting to market trends, releasing newer models with advanced features such as enhanced camera capabilities, cutting-edge processors, and improved battery life. The introduction of 5G technology in the iPhone 12 and subsequent models further bolstered its appeal. With the ever-evolving landscape of consumer preferences, Apple's commitment to innovation ensures that the iPhone continues to hold its enviable position in the market. 2. Services: A Diverse Armamentarium Apple's services segment is a multi-pronged affair. The App Store and Apple Music are the twin pillars, but AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple Card, and iCloud storage are significant contributors as well. It's been an upward trajectory for this segment since 2013, with no signs of abating. Additionally, the expansion of Apple's services is emblematic of the company's strategic diversification. As the digital landscape evolves, Apple has astutely tapped into the growing demand for integrated services. Its focus on user privacy and seamless integration across devices has been a strong value proposition. For instance, Apple TV+ enters a competitive streaming market but with original content and collaborations with high-profile creators. Apple’s services segment not only supplements its revenue but also enhances customer retention and creates a more entrenched ecosystem, encouraging users to invest more within the Apple universe. 3. Mac: The Unwavering Pillar The allure of personal computers has attenuated globally, and Mac's revenue plateaued between 2011 and 2020. However, the Mac remains integral to Apple’s ecosystem, not least because of its role in keeping users within Apple's interconnected iOS operating system. In recent times, Apple has sought to reinvigorate the Mac lineup through innovation and integration. The introduction of Apple's own M1 chip, as opposed to relying on Intel's processors, marked a significant turning point. The M1 chip has been lauded for its performance and energy efficiency, giving the Mac a competitive edge. Furthermore, the seamless integration between the Mac and other Apple devices through features like Handoff, Universal Clipboard, and Sidecar has reinforced the appeal of owning a Mac as part of the larger Apple ecosystem. This ongoing revitalization suggests that Apple is far from considering the Mac as a legacy product, and is instead positioning it for a renewed period of relevance and growth. 4. iPad: Upon their debut, iPads were an instant sensation, raking in an impressive $19 billion in the first year. There was a zenith in 2014, after which sales experienced a decline. Currently, iPad sales hover in the range of $20-30 billion, cementing their place in Apple’s revenue mix. 5. Wearables & Accessories: The Rising Contenders Under this category, one finds an array of products including Beats headphones, AirPods, and the Apple Watch. This segment has been climbing the ladder of success since 2015. Notably, AirPods are estimated to constitute a quarter of the revenue in this category. Apple's foray into the wearables and accessories market is indicative of its visionary approach to emerging consumer trends. The health and fitness boom, for instance, has been adeptly capitalized on through the Apple Watch, which offers features like heart rate monitoring, exercise tracking, and ECG. AirPods, on the other hand, have become something of a cultural phenomenon, merging high-quality audio with sleek design. These products are not just revenue generators; they are an extension of Apple's ecosystem, promoting brand loyalty and customer engagement. By continuously innovating and expanding in this sector, Apple ensures it remains not just a heavyweight in consumer electronics but a trendsetter in lifestyle technologies. Conclusion: Apple's ascent to become the first company to reach $1 trillion and subsequently $2 trillion in market capitalization is hardly fortuitous. The aforementioned quintet of products and services is the bedrock of its supremacy. With consumers' unabated ardor for Apple’s innovations and the brand loyalty it commands, NASDAQ:AAPL remains a formidable player in the stock market. Is Apple part of your investment portfolio?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by financialflagship
21