Navigating the Markets with Fibonacci ChannelsToday we delve into the fascinating world of Fibonacci Channels, a powerful tool for traders looking to identify potential non-horizontal support and resistance levels in the market.
Throughout the video, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to place Fibonacci Channels on price charts, allowing you to visualize and understand their significance in identifying key price levels. We also showcase real-world examples to demonstrate how Fibonacci Channels can be used to find points of interest, such as trend reversals and price targets.
Furthermore, we discuss the integration of Fibonacci Channels with other technical indicators, providing insights into how this combination can enhance your trading strategy. By the end of this video, you will have a comprehensive understanding of Fibonacci Channels and the ability to confidently incorporate them into your trading approach. Get ready to unlock the potential of Fibonacci Channels and take your trading skills to the next level!
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Live stream - Candlestick Analysis for Dynamic Scalping and Day The FX Evolution team are back with an advanced session! They're talking Multi-Time Frame Analysis for precise entry and exit decisions in both scalping and day trading scenarios, Candlestick Pattern Combinations & Volume Analysis with Candlesticks.
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Finding a BalanceLooking to make more holistic investment decisions, but not sure how? Understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis and how to incorporate both is an essential step to accomplishing holistic investing. Today we will explore how finding a balance between these pillars of trading can help you navigate the complex world of investing.
The Importance of Finding a Balance
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis can be the key to successful investing. By combining the two approaches, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, taking into consideration both the short-term market trends and the long-term value.
When it comes to investing, it's important to have a complete view of the market. Relying solely on technical analysis may leave you susceptible to missing out on crucial information about a company's financial health and growth prospects. Similarly, relying purely on fundamental analysis may cause you to overlook short-term market trends that could impact the stock's price in the near future, potentially leading to poor entries and exits.
A balanced approach allows you to leverage the strengths of both technical and fundamental analysis, providing you with a more complete picture of the investment opportunity at hand. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, finding the sweet spot between technical and fundamental analysis can help maximize your chances of making a profitable investment.
Understanding Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach often rely on chart patterns, indicators, and trendlines to identify buy and sell signals.
Chart patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops/bottoms, provide insights into potential price reversals or continuations. These patterns are formed as a result of the collective actions of market participants and can signal impending price movements. However, when using price patterns it is critical to understand the statistical odds of success for completion of the pattern. Price patterns can be subjective to the trader's skill and overall directional bias, so traders should combine price patterns with other forms of technical analysis.
Indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, measure the strength of a trend, and spot potential entry or exit points. When indicators are combined to form a robust and complementary system traders gain a wealth of information about the near-term health of an underlying asset. It is critical to note that no indicator system is perfect and will not guarantee you a 100% success rate. However, when paired with proper risk mitigation, psychology, and supporting forms of technical analysis, using indicators can lead to long-term success.
Trendlines are used to analyze the direction and strength of a stock's price movement. Drawing trend lines connecting the highs or lows of a stock's price can help identify support and resistance levels, price channels, and potential trend reversal areas.
Support and resistance zones are price levels on a chart that indicates where trends are likely to pause or reverse. Support is a zone where a downtrend pauses due to demand, while resistance is a zone where an uptrend pauses due to supply. These zones are based on market sentiment and human psychology, shaped by emotions such as fear, greed, and herd instinct. Traders tend to congregate near these zones, strengthening them. Support levels indicate a surplus of buyers, while resistance levels indicate a surplus of sellers. It's important to note that these levels are not exact numbers but rather "zones" that can be tested by the market.
Understanding how these tools work and how to interpret their signals is crucial for technical analysis. It allows traders to make intuitive decisions based on historical price patterns and market dynamics. However, it's important to note that technical analysis has its limitations.
Limitations of Technical Analysis
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights into a stock's potential price movements, it's important to recognize its limitations. Technical analysis is primarily focused on historical data and patterns, which may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Market sentiment, news events, and other external factors can significantly impact a stock's price, often rendering technical analysis less effective. If you don't believe me, just look at the price charts for the last four years. Try to pinpoint major world or domestic events such as the start of the pandemic or the Fed's hawkish shift. Additionally, technical analysis does not take into account the intrinsic value of a company, which is a key consideration in fundamental analysis.
Therefore, relying solely on technical analysis to make investment decisions may leave you vulnerable to market uncertainties and potential pitfalls. This is where fundamental analysis comes into play.
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis involves examining a company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions to determine its intrinsic value. Investors who lean towards fundamental analysis believe that a company's true worth is reflected in its financial strength and growth potential.
Key factors considered in fundamental analysis include a company's revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, debt levels, competitive positioning, and management team. By analyzing these factors, investors can assess whether a company is undervalued or overvalued, and make investment decisions accordingly. Most, if not all of this information is readily available on the internet, but it can take some digging to find all the information one would need. There is also a wide range of financial-related indicators readily available on TradingView.
Fundamental analysis also takes into account macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies, which can impact the overall market and the performance of individual stocks.
How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis
Conducting fundamental analysis involves a thorough examination of a company's financial statements, such as its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These statements provide insights into a company's revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and cash flows.
Analyzing financial ratios, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio, helps investors assess a company's financial health and profitability. Much of this information is available on TradingView under the financials tab. TradingView has done an excellent job of making a majority of the aforementioned financial data available, right at your fingertips.
Industry analysis is another important aspect of fundamental analysis. Understanding the industry dynamics, competitive landscape, and market trends can provide insights into a company's growth potential and its ability to outperform its peers. There is a plethora of this information online, and diligence in your research will make a world of difference.
By combining financial analysis with industry analysis, investors can gain a deeper understanding of a company's overall prospects and make more informed investment decisions.
Finding a Balance Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis requires a thoughtful approach. Here are some strategies to help you integrate the two approaches:
Start with fundamental analysis: Begin by analyzing a company's financials and industry trends to assess its long-term growth potential. This will provide you with a solid foundation for your investment decisions.
Use technical analysis for timing: Once you've identified a promising investment opportunity based on fundamental analysis, use technical analysis to refine your entry and exit points. Technical indicators and chart patterns can help you identify optimal times to buy or sell a stock.
Consider the bigger picture: While technical analysis focuses on short-term market trends, it's important to consider the long-term value of a company. Evaluate the fundamental factors that can impact a company's growth potential and use technical analysis as a tool to validate your investment thesis.
Keep an eye on market sentiment: Market sentiment can influence stock prices in the short term. By staying informed about news events, economic indicators, and market trends, you can better understand the context in which technical and fundamental analysis are operating.
By finding a balance between technical and fundamental analysis, you can better manage your investment decisions that take into account both short-term market dynamics and long-term value. This balanced approach can help you navigate the complex world of investing and maximize your chances of success.
In conclusion, understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis is crucial for making theoretically sound investment decisions. By finding a balance between the two approaches, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, considering both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis can help provide a better view and maximize your chances of making profitable investment decisions.
Happy Trading!
7 Forex Trading Tips (To help you be successful in 2024)7 Tips for all Forex Traders (to succeed in 2024)
So many new traders come into with an expectation of quickly becoming a millionaire. They soon learn that making money from trading isn’t as simple as just placing trades and collecting profits. They need some forex trading tips that can help them to succeed in the market. If they get these useful tips and combine them with a good and hard work there’s a chance that they can become successful as a forex trader. If this sounds like something, you’d like keep reading. This article will give you 7 forex trading tips that can help you improve forex trading results.
Many new traders look to this scalping type of trading where positions are held for a short time, usually less than a day. This type of trading has become so popular because it is also considered as a way to deliver quick profits to a trader’s account. Understanding the dangers of short-term trading are also important. Short-term forex trades typically make far less on each trade, but the higher frequency of trades makes up for this, and at the end of the day this trading style can deliver a good number of . You will choose between short-term forex trading and long-term forex trading at some point in trading career. Whether you stay with the short-term trading or switch to long term trading will be determined by your own and style.
The following forex trading tips are meant to help you control your risk and manage your money effectively. Hopefully these 7 forex trading tips will help you become a better trader, in 2024.
1) Understand your own personality and trading style
It might seem like obvious advice, but knowing your own personality and trading style is much easier said than done. We all have our own personality and goals, and we all have our own unique approach to the markets and trading. You need to know what your personality and approach is if you want to be a successful forex trader.
While some traders are most comfortable with small, safe positions, others love to swing for the fences with the riskiest, but potentially most profitable, trades. Which way is yours?
Also think about whether you like to be a follower who might work well with a trend following approach. Or maybe you like to go against the crowd and are always looking for a different way to approach things. This personality type often does well as a contrarian trader. You don’t need to figure this all out right now, but you should keep it in mind.
2) Choose your Best Broker
You already know there are literally hundreds of brokers you can choose from, and each one is different in some ways. Some focus on specific asset types, while others may work best for broad approach. There are brokers for and others for pro traders. Do you need automatic broker ? Is the regulation of a broker important to you? Ask yourself these questions before choosing a broker.
3) Learn and Practice Several Trading Strategies
If you want to make forex trading a career you should want to become an expert forex trader. That means learning and mastering multiple professional trading strategies. Just as a lawyer will have a different approach to traffic court versus civil court, so you need to have a different approach to different market conditions.
Having several trading strategies at your disposal gives you a broader look and understanding of the market. It also gives you the option of having the best trading strategy no matter how market conditions change.
4) Start Broad and Finish Narrow when analyzing charts
Always begin your analysis from the higher timeframes. Looking at the weekly and daily chart will give you the big picture and long-term trends. From there you can drill down to the 4-hour, 1-hour, or shorter time frames. Once you know the long-term trend you can use the short-term charts to find short-term opportunities in the same direction as the broader market trends.
There’s truth to the old saying that “The trend is your friend.”
5) Always Have a Trading Plan
There’s a saying that goes “Fail to plan, plan to fail” and it is appropriate for forex traders to keep it in mind. Trading plan is what will tell you when to enter and exit your position, the profit target, how much risk you’ll be willing to accept, and everything else regarding trade. It will keep you from getting too fearful or greedy, and should prevent emotional decision making.
In all honesty having a trading plan is one of the most important tips, and it should probably be at the top of this list. And the key is not just to have a plan, but to follow it religiously, and to take the time to analyze how well it performs so you know when changes might be needed.
6) Protect your Capital by Managing your Risk on every trade
Protecting your capital is what will keep you in the trading game when others have been thrown out by their own careless risk taking behavior. Remember that the market will always be there for another day and another trade, and you want to be sure you have capital to take advantage of that in your trading adventures.
This means always calculating your risk on any trade, and knowing when to enter and when to take a day off. Volatility is good, but not if it increases your risk to the point that you blow up your account. Also be sure to always use stop losses to protect from unforeseen moves.
7) Price action on charts (not feelings)/Never stop learning
You might be thinking this is basic, but too many traders fall into the trap of trading on emotions and hunches rather than facts. Always trade what the market shows, not what you hope to see. Wait for your trade setup and avoid trading based on emotions. Two things you can do to help ensure you are trading with facts and not emotions is to have a clear trading plan that you’re following at all times, and to keep a detailed journal of trades.
The forex market is one of the most complex financial systems ever created, and no one will ever know all there is to know about it, especially since market conditions are always changing. This makes it crucial for you to always be learning. Because the forex market is ever-changing you need to understand that what worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today. And when your strategy stops working it would be good to have the knowledge to know why it’s stopped working, and how to fix it.
Always look to try new strategies, find new ways to research the market, master technical tools and your fundamental analyzing strategies. Last of all, keep an eye on evolving technologies like auto-trading, back-testing software, and new technical trading indicators. Each might have a place in your future trading plans.
Fibonacci Retracement StrategiesFibonacci retracements are a cornerstone in the toolkit of many traders, offering a mathematical approach to identifying potential areas where reversals may occur. This article delves into the intricacies of using Fibonacci retracements, covering everything from basic understanding to strategies involving other indicators. Read on to gain insights into how to effectively incorporate these levels into your trading strategy.
What Are Fibonacci Retracements?
Fibonacci retracements are a popular technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels on a chart. Developed around the concept of the Fibonacci sequence—a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones—the Fibonacci indicator applies this mathematical formula to financial markets.
Key retracement levels are often considered at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% of a price move. The 61.8% level, in particular, is frequently referred to as the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio, owing to its significance in both nature and financial markets. Traders commonly use these areas to anticipate where the price may reverse, thus providing strategic entry and exit points.
Fibonacci Retracements: How to Use Them
Using the Fibonacci tool for trading begins with identifying a significant swing, either an uptrend or a downtrend, on the chart. The tool is then applied at the swing low and swing high of the price movement. In an uptrend, it starts at the swing low and ends at the swing high; in a downtrend, it's the opposite. This action plots horizontal lines at the key Fibonacci levels, providing potential areas where price could reverse.
Concerning the Fibonacci retracement time frame, it's essential to know that this tool can be applied across various time frames—from one-minute charts to monthly charts. However, the reliability of the retracement levels often increases on higher time frames. That means those plotted on daily or weekly charts generally offer stronger support or resistance compared to those on shorter time frames.
Strategies Using Fibonacci Retracements
In trading, combining Fibonacci retracements with other technical indicators can significantly enhance decision-making. Below are three distinct strategies that utilise these retracements in conjunction with other tools to identify high-probability trade setups.
To see how they work, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll gain access to over 1,200 trading tools—including the ones featured in this article.
Fibonacci Retracement with Moving Average Crossover
In this Fibonacci trading strategy, traders combine Fibonacci retracements with two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) set to 9 and 12 periods to pinpoint entry and exit points. After identifying a trend, either bullish or bearish, they apply the retracement tool to gauge potential reversal zones. Specifically, the focus is on the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels. If the price reacts at any of these zones—potentially confirmed by a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern—the next step is to observe the EMA indicators.
Entry
Traders often watch for a moving average crossover in the direction of the existing trend as an indication of potential entry.
Stop Loss
Stop losses may be placed above or below the nearest swing high or low. Alternatively, some opt for setting it beyond the next level, including 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Profits are typically taken at the high or low of the retracement zone where the price initially reacted.
Fibonacci Retracement with Stochastic Oscillator
In this Fibonacci retracement strategy, the initial setup is similar to the one involving moving averages: traders identify a prevailing trend and apply Fibonacci retracements to find possible reversal zones at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The twist here is the use of the Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that ranges between 0 and 100. The oscillator helps identify overbought or oversold conditions when the price reaches these areas.
Entry
Traders generally look for the Stochastic Oscillator to exceed 80 (overbought) or drop below 20 (oversold) when the price reaches one of these Fibonacci zones. The entry signal often comes when the oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20 after a reaction.
Stop Loss
Stop losses can be situated either above or below the closest swing high or swing low. Some traders may also choose to place it beyond an adjacent level, such as 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Take profits are commonly located at the level where the price first exhibited a reaction, be it a high or a low.
50% Fibonacci Retracement Strategy
The 50% Fibonacci retracement strategy is a lower risk-to-reward approach but one that’s simple. Unlike other strategies that utilise multiple Fibonacci levels or additional indicators, this method zeroes in on the 50% mark as the focal point for entry, making it straightforward for traders. The 50% point specifically plays into the idea of mean reversion, which states that the price is likely to return to its average over time; however, traders can choose 38.2% or 61.8% areas if preferred.
Entry
Traders typically look to enter a position when the price reaches and reacts from the 50% retracement level, aiming to ride an existing trend.
Stop Loss
Due to the wider scope of this strategy, stop losses are usually set beyond the high or low of the entire Fibonacci retracement, offering a buffer against potential volatility.
Take Profit
Traders often opt to take profits at key support or resistance areas that offer at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Alternatively, one may choose to forgo setting a take profit and instead trail a stop loss above or below new swing points that develop.
The Bottom Line
In summary, understanding and applying Fibonacci retracements can enhance your trading strategies, especially when used in conjunction with other technical indicators. These retracement levels offer high-probability zones where price might reverse, creating potential entry and exit points. If you're looking to implement a Fibonacci forex strategy in a secure, low-cost trading environment, consider opening an FXOpen account to access over 50 currency pairs and a comprehensive range of trading resources.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Quantify & Identify (real-time) a Trading RangeOne of the most challenging & frustrating tasks for a trader,
is to define with a rules-based (systematic) methodology,
and identify (on a real-time basis),
when a market is in a trading range.
Using the MACD-v both of these goals are achieved.
The market is defined as being as "Ranging"
(one of the Core 7 Range Rules/States)
when the MACD-v is between the -50 and 50 ranges,
for more than 25 bars consecutively.
Top traders' methods: A scenario-based view of the marketsThe best traders think in scenarios of market events. They know from experience that the market can do "anything," so it is better to be prepared for any eventuality. This approach is part of mental flexibility. It can take several forms.
Flexibility in approaching the market reduces stress
Flexibility in our approach to the market reduces stress - if we are prepared for different scenarios of events it is certainly hard to surprise us isn't it?
A lot of stress comes from the fact that we like to attach ourselves to our analysis and our rationale, and we feel annoyed when the market acts differently.
If you take several options for the development of events and prepare for each of them - you are already taking into account that, for example, one or even several orders will go to cost. With this approach, you are already prepared for the matter.
You also don't succumb to the illusion of your own infallibility and need to be right. Experienced traders know that being right is useless and even harmful, what matters is making money, not being right.
Flexibility can promote better profits.
Flexibility can promote better profits when you think through several possible scenarios and prepare to... make money on each of them.
- If the market falls, I'll do this, enter here and the TP will be here, and if it rises I'll enter at that place and set the TP like this.
You prepare your psyche to act according to what the market will do - just like a hunter waits for the game to come out in one place or another.
The market's subsequent denial of being "right" can take a toll on your self-esteem, and as you already know, this is an unfavorable phenomenon. Therefore, think in open-ended terms - that the market can rise or fall in different scenarios. Think how you will make money on each of them, and don't be attached to any direction, any behavior and any "right." Think how you will make money on possible ups and possible downs, and don't be tied to any direction, any behavior and any "rationale."
Flexibility over the long term
In the long run, you can simulate for yourself many different profit and loss scenarios. Especially simulating, recalculating a series of losses works positively. It is sobering. If you are prepared for the worst that can happen, and you are able to survive it and come out on top - you are on your way to professionalism.
Be prepared for a series of battles and for the fact that even though you will lose some of them, in the end you must win the war.
Tip:
When preparing to enter the market, think about where you will enter, where you will put SL and where you will put TP. Think about the different ways you can manage an open order: what are your choices? Exit because the system gives a signal in the opposite direction? Exit because the market froze instead of moving in your direction? Exit because the indications of the indicators are changing?
Think through the different possibilities of market behavior. Together with them, think through your reactions and your decisions.
If you prepare in advance - the management of the order itself will no longer require thinking, but only the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous, because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no pressure is better.
If you think through your reactions and decisions earlier order management will no longer require thinking, but the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no mental pressure is better.
Also think about what can knock you out, pull you away from your plan? What kind of distractions? Pets at home, family, phones? Think about how to eliminate these distractions or how to prepare for them when they occur.
Traits of master traders
Trading, systems, psyche is something unique. That is, every trader is different. At a certain level, traders participate in competitions, struggles with other traders.
At the next level they are left alone, especially the best. And the best of the best start struggling with themselves. They are themselves yesterday's benchmark for what they want to achieve today.
Thus, they enter the struggle with themselves, with this most important opponent.
Therefore, think about it and imitate them. Be better today than who you were yesterday. And tomorrow be better than who you are today.
Your new goal, which will lead you to the level of Master: "I will be the best trader I can be."
Fibonacci: The FundamentalsApplying Nature's Harmony to Financial Markets
From flower petals to far away galaxies, the Fibonacci pattern is found across the natural world.
Fibonacci patterns are derived from the Fibonacci number sequence where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so forth.
Some traders believe the Fibonacci sequence and its derived ratios, like 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% occur in the price movements of financial markets. These ratios are used to predict levels at which assets might retrace or extend their trends.
I. Fibonacci Retracements: Add Precision When Timing Pullbacks
Fibonacci retracements are based on the idea that after a significant price movement, an asset often retraces a portion of that move before continuing its original trend. The retracement is simply a pullback against the impulsive trending move.
Identifying the impulsive trending move is pivotal to drawing Fibonacci retracements. This trending move is known as the ‘impulse leg’ and is labelled X-A on our charts (below).
The Fibonacci retracement tool can be overlayed on top of any impulse leg to provide a series of retracement levels generated from the Fibonacci number sequence.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
38.2%: This level indicates a moderate retracement. It's often seen as an area where traders might anticipate a reversal or a continuation of the trend.
50%: A key level, suggesting a potential halfway point for the retracement. Traders closely watch this level for potential shifts in market sentiment.
61.8%: Known as the "golden ratio," this level holds perhaps the most significance in the world of Fibonacci – it is the ratio described by Leonardo da Vinci as representing divinely inspired simplicity and orderliness.
78.6%: While not as commonly used as the others, some traders like the 78.6% retracement as it is perceived to offer the greatest potential reward relative to X (the inception of the trending move). However, the deeper the retracement the weaker the trend.
Fibonacci Retracements in Uptrends:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Retracements in Downtrends:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Uses of Fibonacci Retracements:
Identifying Support and Resistance: These retracement levels often act as potential areas where price movements may pause or reverse.
Planning Entry and Exit Points: You can use Fibonacci retracements to plan entry points for trades during a trend and set exit points to take profits or minimise losses.
Confirmation Tool: When Fibonacci levels align with other technical indicators or chart patterns, they can provide confirmation for trade setups, adding confidence to trading decisions.
II. Fibonacci Extensions: Projecting Price Targets and Beyond
Fibonacci extensions are used to project potential future levels beyond the initial trend. They help traders anticipate where price movements might extend.
Like Fibonacci retracements, the impulse leg (labelled X-A) is key. The Fibonacci trend extension tool can be overlayed onto your impulse leg to generate Fibonacci-based levels to which the impulse leg may extend.
Common Extension Levels: Some commonly used levels are 138.2%, 161.8%, and 261.8%.
Fibonacci Extension Levels
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Extensions in Uptrends
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Extensions in Downtrends
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Uses of Fibonacci Extensions:
Setting Profit Targets: You can use extensions to establish potential price targets, aiding in setting profit-taking levels for their trades.
Predicting Price Reversals or Extensions: These extension levels can signal where a trend might exhaust or where it could extend further, assisting traders in adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
While debates surround the impact of Fibonacci in markets, the core principles—identifying strong impulse legs, timing pullbacks precisely, and projecting targets—form the cornerstone of price action trading. Next week, we'll explore the synergy of retracements and extensions, delving deeper into the captivating realm of advanced Fibonacci patterns.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
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ADX Trend-Based StrategiesThe Average Directional Index is a highly-respected tool in many traders’ arsenals, capable of measuring the strength of market trends. This article delves into two ADX-based strategies, exploring how to combine this tool with other popular indicators like RSI and EMA for a well-rounded trading system.
Understanding the ADX Trend Indicator
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a trend strength indicator commonly used in technical analysis. It helps traders identify the strength of market trends, thereby serving as a key component in crafting an effective trend trading strategy.
Originally developed by Welles Wilder, the ADX oscillates between 0 and 100, providing a quantitative measure of trend strength. When its value is below 25, the trend is typically weak or non-existent. Conversely, readings above 25 signify a stronger trend, with values over 50 suggesting a very strong trend. Traders often use these numerical benchmarks to assess whether to enter or exit a trade based on the prevailing trend conditions.
Importantly, this tool does not indicate the direction of the trend; rather, it measures the trend's intensity. Therefore, it is often used in conjunction with other indicators to provide a complete picture of market conditions. This makes the ADX a versatile and valuable indicator for any trader aiming to build a robust trend trading strategy.
Basic Parameters for ADX
The ADX usually comes with a default setting of a 14-period lookback. This means the indicator evaluates the trend strength based on the last 14 bars, whether you're using a daily, hourly, or any other time frame.
In most trading platforms, including FXOpen’s own TickTrader platform, setting up the ADX involves selecting it from the platform's list and then choosing the period parameter. Some traders tweak the period to fit their trading style, although caution is advised when straying from the standard settings.
Interpreting ADX signals is straightforward: a rising value suggests an intensifying trend, while a falling value indicates a weakening trend. This makes it easier for traders to gauge market conditions and determine their trend-following strategy.
ADX and RSI Strategy
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is often dubbed one of the best trend indicators when used in combination with ADX. When employed together, they form a powerful duo to identify trend strength and market momentum.
For this strategy, both indicators are used at their default settings: a 14-period lookback for both ADX and RSI. Horizontal lines are drawn at 45 and 55 on the RSI window and at 25 on the ADX window to serve as reference points.
Entry
When the RSI rises above 55 or falls below 45, traders wait for the ADX to cross above the 25 level to enter.
It's discretionary for traders to decide whether to enter when the RSI is in overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) territories. While these conditions may offer trading opportunities, they can also be riskier as the trend could easily continue.
Stop Loss
Traders often position a stop loss above or below a nearby swing point to protect their trades.
Take Profit
Profits may be taken when the ADX falls below 25, signalling a weakening trend.
Alternatively, traders can opt to exit the trade at a predetermined support or resistance level.
ADX and EMA Strategy
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that responds quickly to price changes and new trends. For this setup, the EMA is configured to a 28-period lookback, while the ADX retains its default 14-period setting. The EMA is essentially another trend filter, acting as a useful baseline for trend direction.
Entry
Traders look for entry opportunities when the price is either above or below the 28-period EMA, indicating the direction of the trend.
Once the ADX crosses above 25, confirming trend strength, traders wait for the price to retrace back to the EMA line to enter the trade.
Stop Loss
A stop loss may be positioned just beyond the EMA.
Alternatively, placing the stop loss at a nearby swing point offers another way to mitigate risk.
Take Profit
Profits might be taken when the ADX falls below the 25 level, suggesting that the trend may be losing momentum.
As another option, traders may choose to exit at a predetermined support or resistance level.
Benefits and Risks of ADX Trend Trading Strategies
Understanding the benefits and risks associated with ADX-based strategies is crucial for traders aiming for consistent returns. Here's a breakdown:
Benefits
Objective Trend Strength: ADX quantifies trend strength, removing subjective guesswork.
Versatility: ADX can be combined with various other indicators like RSI and EMA to create multi-dimensional strategies.
Clear Signals: Thresholds like ADX 25 provide clear, easy-to-understand entry and exit signals.
Risks
Lagging Indicator: Being a trend-following tool, ADX can lag, potentially causing late entries or exits.
False Signals: Market volatility can lead to false ADX signals, especially in lower time frames.
The Bottom Line
In essence, mastering the ADX indicator can equip traders with the ability to discern even stock trend patterns effectively. Its versatility and simplicity mean it’s a great inclusion for trend-following strategies. The strategies given here offer a foundation to work with, but it’s well worth experimenting for yourself and seeing how the ADX works in practice.
If you’re looking to put these trading techniques into practice, you can consider opening an FXOpen account. You’ll gain access to the advanced TickTrader platform, hundreds of markets to choose from, and competitive trading fees. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Financial Crisis Impact on Different Asset ClassesA financial crisis is a severe disruption in the financial markets and banking system of a country or even the entire world. It typically involves a sudden and widespread loss of confidence in the financial system, leading to a range of negative economic consequences.
In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of how different asset classes tend to behave during turbulent times of financial and economic crises. Some prominent historical examples uncover the dynamic interplay within these markets.
Impact of Financial Crisis on Equities
Shareholder investments depend heavily on company-specific factors; however, general economic conditions and market sentiment play a decisive role as well. Equity markets typically plummet during financial crises.
During a financial crisis, investor sentiment turns bearish as confidence in the stability of the financial system wanes, causing a domino effect through massive sell-offs on equity markets. Increased risk aversion imposes a higher risk premium to borrowing costs, and businesses may encounter significant challenges in securing loans for expansion or even daily operations. This difficulty in accessing capital negatively impacts corporate earnings, further eroding investor confidence in equities. Higher volatility is common in such conditions as well, and traders could turn the situation into an opportunity for short-term shorting profits.
Economic Crisis Examples Causing Stock Market Crashes
The Dot-Com Crash unfolded in the early 2000s, following a period of excessive overvaluation of internet-related and technology stocks. Having no earnings or clear path to profitability but going public on overhyped expectations, these companies enjoyed skyrocketing stock prices. The bubble burst when major technology companies initiated large sell orders for their own shares, confirming the extreme overvaluation and triggering a wave of panic selling. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost over 76% of its value, while the shock wave reached retirement accounts, investment portfolios, and mutual funds.
The housing market collapse in 2008 and the subsequent banking crisis also resulted in a severe stock market downturn. Major stock indices, such as the S&P 500, plummeted in early 2009, causing substantial losses for investors.
Financial Crisis Affects Fixed-Income Asset Classes by Risk
At times of financial crises, investors often seek safety in government bonds from stable countries, leading to increased demand and higher prices. Therefore, government bonds are widely used as safe-haven asset classes for investments. On the flip side, concerns about creditworthiness during financial turmoil can cause bond prices from corporate issuers to decline.
The scenario is different for corporate bonds. Negative sentiment causes panic selling and declining corporate bond prices, while positive sentiment, often due to government interventions or stimulus measures, can boost corporate bond prices.
Central banks also respond to crises by adjusting interest rates, affecting bond prices: lower rates can make existing bonds with higher coupon rates more attractive, driving up their prices, while raising rates can lead to falling bond prices.
Global Financial Crisis: The 2008 Mortgage Collapse
The global financial crisis of 2008 triggered diverse reactions in the bond market. As the crisis unfolded, the huge demand for government bonds caused yields to drop to historically low levels, driving prices up in early 2009.
In contrast, bonds tied to the housing and mortgage markets, such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations, experienced significant declines in prices due to heightened credit risk and concerns about mortgage defaults. A liquidity squeeze in the market exacerbated the pricing volatility, making it more challenging for investors to buy or sell bonds at desired prices. Central banks responded with measures like interest rate cuts and bond purchases to stabilise financial markets, influencing bond prices further.
Financial Crisis Impact on Asset Classes Like Commodities
The effects of financial crises on commodities are complex, with both safe-haven and risk-off assets experiencing fluctuations as investors seek to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Financial crises impact supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. Traders can profit from significant fluctuations, taking long or short positions in different commodity types.
Precious metals like gold and silver are considered safe-haven assets by investors seeking refuge from volatile equities and currencies, which can drive their prices up. Conversely, industrial commodities, such as oil and base metals, may face declining prices due to reduced demand resulting from economic slowdowns and decreased industrial activity. Additionally, fluctuations in exchange rates due to monetary policies in response to the crisis can influence commodity prices.
Impact of the Global Financial Crisis: Examples
The 1997 Asian financial crisis caused severe economic contractions and currency devaluations. Key players like South Korea and Indonesia faced significant downturns in manufacturing and construction activity, leading to diminished consumption of copper and aluminium and a sharp decline in their prices. In Russia, the devaluation of the ruble in 1998 made it more profitable for Russian oil companies to export their crude, leading to an increase in oil production. Thus, a surge in supply combined with the reduced demand in Asia the year before resulted in a global oversupply of oil. Consequently, oil prices experienced a sharp decline.
A more recent oil price decline in 2018 and 2019 was also triggered by oversupply concerns, primarily due to the rapid growth in oil production. Trade tensions, the global economic slowdown, and uncertainty in the face of slowing economies were also contributing factors.
A Financial Crisis Is a Pivotal Moment for Currency Markets
A complex interplay of forces can create substantial volatility in the forex market during a financial crisis, reshaping exchange rates.
Heightened uncertainty and risk aversion among investors drive a flight to safety found in stable currencies, causing their values to appreciate. On the other hand, currencies of countries affected by the crisis, like emerging markets, often face depreciation due to economic uncertainty. Monetary policy adjustments by central banks, like interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, influence currency values further.
The European Debt Crisis
In 2010-2012, the depreciation of the euro significantly impacted currency markets. Concerns about the fiscal stability of several Eurozone countries led to investors seeking refuge in other major currencies like the US dollar and the Swiss franc. The European Central Bank's policy interventions played a critical role in managing the crisis's effects, highlighting the intricate relationship between regional economic and political developments and their impact on the global currency market.
Alternative Asset Classes: Cryptocurrencies*
Major cryptocurrencies* like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be seen as a hedge against crises in the traditional markets. Despite their different characteristics, purposes, and risk profiles, many major players see them as alternative investments because of an observed negative correlation at times.
In the early stages of a financial crisis, cryptocurrencies* have sometimes been seen as "digital gold" or a safe-haven asset by some investors. This perception can lead to an initial increase in demand and higher prices for them. However, while some investors see cryptocurrencies* as a hedge against traditional financial system risks, others view them as speculative assets. This duality can result in varying responses during crises, with some investors flocking to cryptocurrencies* and others selling off to raise cash or reduce risk exposure.
Bitcoin: The “Digital Gold”
At the end of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the narrative of Bitcoin being a digital safe-haven asset. Extensive monetary stimulus during the pandemic raised extreme inflation concerns, while fear of worldwide economic recession kept stocks from rising, making many investors see Bitcoin as a superior store of value. Additionally, the pandemic fueled the rise of decentralised finance (DeFi) and digital payment solutions, boosting cryptocurrency* adoption.
If you are willing to explore how various assets react to changing market conditions and hedge risks by diversifying your portfolio, you can visit FXOpen’s free trading TickTrader platform.
Conclusion
Financial crises bring to light the diverse behaviour of various asset classes. Stocks tend to collapse, bonds respond to interest rates and credit concerns, and commodities and currencies get volatile to reflect global dynamics. Amidst these, cryptocurrencies* emerge as an alternative store of value. Ready to extend your trading experience? You can open an FXOpen account and explore the opportunities.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TRADING BASICS: TRENDLINESTrend lines are the simplest and most basic concept of technical analysis. It is also, paradoxically, one of the most effective tools. Since almost all price patterns require the use of trend lines, the latter are the basic element of both pattern definition and its use. Now we will discuss what trend lines are, how to work with them and how to determine whether they are working.
A trendline is a straight line that connects descending lows in a rising market or highs in a falling market. Lines that connect lows are called rising trend lines, and those that connect highs are called falling trend lines. To make a falling trend line, we connect the first high to the subsequent highs. When the price breaks the trend line, it is a hint that the trend may change. Similarly, for a rising line.
How to draw a trend line? ✔️
For a trend line to be real, it must connect the previous highs or lows. Otherwise, there is no sense in such a line at all. This is called the major trend line. It is where the first low of a bearish trend connects to the first intermediate low. In the example below, the trend line is not particularly steep (it is at a low angle, and angles are important in a trend). Unfortunately, price then accelerates sharply after the next low.
In a situation like this, it's best to simply redraw the trendline as price moves further away. This is called a new line in the picture and it reflects the changed trend much better. This line will be a secondary trend line. Well, the downtrend lines are drawn in the same way, but in reverse.
Since the trend can go sideways, it is quite possible to guess that trend lines can be drawn horizontally. This is often the case when we find price patterns like the "neck" in the Head and Shoulders pattern, or the upper and lower borders of triangles. In such patterns, if the trend line is crossed, it is an indication that the trend is changing. The same is true for rising and falling trends.
It is also important to realize that drawing a trend line is a matter of using common sense, not a set of very strict rules.
A trendline breakout could indicate a reversal or consolidation
The completion of a price pattern can indicate:
1. reversal of the previous trend, aka reversal pattern;
2. continuation of the previous trend, aka consolidation or continuation pattern.
Similarly, a trend line breakout indicates either a reversal of the trend or a continuation of the trend.
An example demonstrates this concept for a downtrend.
In this case, the trend line connecting one high after another is broken in a downtrend. The fourth high will be the highest point of the bearish trend, so an upward breakout of the trend line in this case indicates the beginning of a bullish trend.
In the picture above we see again a rising trend and a trend line breakout, but this signal has a completely different outcome. The reason is that the break of the trend line caused the trend to continue, but at a much slower pace. The third scenario is when the price goes into consolidation (aka sideways) instead of reversing, which is shown in picture. Accordingly, when a trendline is broken, it is a strong indication of a trend reversal. A changed trend can eventually reverse or go sideways after rising or falling.
Unfortunately, in most cases we can't tell accurately what will follow a trendline breakdown. However, there can be some pretty good clues, such as the angle of the trendline. Since trends that run at an acute angle are less stable, their breakout more often leads to sideways rather than reversals. Useful hints can be hidden in the general state of the technical structure of the market. In addition, a trend line breakout often occurs at the successful completion of a reversal price pattern or shortly before.
Extended trend lines ✔️
Many beginners, when they see that a trend line is broken, automatically conclude that the trend is about to change and immediately forget about the line. After all, an extended trend line can be as important as the fact of its breakdown. For example, if a rising trend line is broken, the price very often returns to the same line, but later. This is called a throwback.
Significance of trend lines ✔️
So, we have it all figured out - a trend line breakout leads to either a trend reversal or a trend slowdown. Of course, it is not always possible to say what exactly happens there, but we need to understand how effective a trend line breakout is in general, which we are going to do now.
In general, the significance of this event depends on three factors:
The length of the line;
The number of touches;
The angle of inclination or rise.
1. Trend line length ✔️
A trend line is used to measure a trend. The longer the line, the longer the trend and the more such a line will become important to us. If descending lows come one after another for 3-4 weeks, such a trendline is less relevant. If the trend line lasts 1-3 years, its breakout is extremely important to us. The breakout of an old trend line is very important, it is a powerful signal. The breakout of a fresh (relatively) trend line is a less important signal.
2. Number of touches or approaches to the trend line ✔️
The more touches or interactions with the trend line, the more important it is, there is a direct correlation. Why is this so? Because the trend line represents a dynamic zone of support or resistance. Each successful touch of the line strengthens it, reinforces its importance as a support or resistance zone. Thus, the trend line's role as a guide for the trend as such is also strengthened. Approaching the trend line is no less important than touching it, because this is how the zone is actualized. If the trend line has become strong due to the touches, its continuation will be no less strong, but from the other side. After all, in an extended trend line, support often becomes resistance and vice versa.
3. Angle of slope ✔️
A very steep trend is usually unstable and easily broken, even by a short sideways movement. All trends break sooner or later, this is a fact. However, steep trends break much faster. The breakout of a steep trend is less significant than the breakout of a smooth and gradual trend. It sounds paradoxical, but the point is this - the break of a steep trend usually causes a short correction, sideways price movement, after which the trend resumes, but much less strong and smoother. Accordingly, the breakout of a steep trend line is a confirming pattern, not a reversal pattern at all.
To summarize
Trend lines are an easy tool to understand, but they must be used correctly and thoughtfully. A trend line breakout indicates a temporary interruption of the trend or a reversal of the main trend. The significance of a trend line consists of its length, the number of touches/approaches to it and the slope angle. A good trend line always reflects the underlying trend and forms significant support and resistance areas. Extended trend lines change former support/resistance in places, which should be paid special attention to.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
4 Types of Gap You MUST Know in Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss a very common pattern that is called gap.
In technical analysis, the gap is the difference between the closing price of the previous candlestick and the opening price of the next candlestick.
📈Gap up represents a situation when the price bounces up sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another. The price gap that appears between them is called gap up.
📉Gap down represents a situation when the price drops sharply at the moment of a transition from one candlestick to another, the price gap between the closing price of the previous candle and the opening price of the next candle is called a gap down.
From my experience, I realized that with a high probability the gap tends to be filled. For that reason, once you see a gap, consider trading opportunities around that.
Depending on the market conditions where the gap appears, there are several types of a gap to know:
1️⃣Common gap appears in a weak, calm market. When the trading volumes are low and the market participants are waiting for some trigger, or the asset reached a fair value price.
Above, there is a perfect example of a common gap that was formed on Dollar Index on an hourly time frame.
2️⃣Breakaway gap appears in a situation when the price suddenly breaks a structure (support or resistance) in a form of a gap.
Such a gap usually confirms a structure breakout.
I spotted a perfect breakaway gap on Dollar Index. The market violated a solid horizontal support with that.
3️⃣Runaway gap usually appears when the market is growing or falling sharply. It signifies the dominance of buyers/sellers and highly probable continuation. Usually such gaps are not filled.
Runaway was a perfect indicator of a strength of buyers on US30 Index.
4️⃣Exhaustion gap is, in contrast, appears around major key levels and signifies a highly probable reversal. The exhaustion gap is usually confirmed by a consequent strong opposite movement that fills the gap.
US100 formed an exhaustion gap, trading in a strong bullish wave. After that the gap was filled and the market started to fall rapidly, forming a breakaway gap.
Learn to recognize gaps on a chart and learn to interpret them. It will increase the accuracy of your technical analysis.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Ichimoku Cloud: How To GuideHave you ever considered using the Ichimoku Cloud, a powerful and versatile technical analysis tool that goes beyond traditional chart analysis?
💜 If you appreciate our guides, support us with boost button 💜
Discover the Ichimoku Cloud, technical analysis tool developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s.
This method visually represents support and resistance levels, providing crucial insights into trend direction and momentum.
Let's delve into the key aspects of the Ichimoku Cloud, providing you with insights and skills to take another step up in your trading game.
1. Understanding Ichimoku Cloud
Components of the Cloud:
The Ichimoku Cloud comprises five key elements — Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B, and the Kumo (cloud). Grasping the role of each component is fundamental to interpreting the cloud's signals.
- Kijun Sen (red line): The standard line or base line, calculated by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 26 periods.
- Tenkan Sen (blue line): The turning line, derived by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past nine periods.
- Chikou Span (green line): The lagging line, representing today’s closing price plotted 26 periods behind.
- Senkou Span (red/green line): The first Senkou line is calculated by averaging the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen and plotted 26 periods ahead. The second Senkou line is determined by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 52 periods and plotted 26 periods ahead.
It’s not necessary to memorize the computations; understanding their interpretation is key.
2. Trading Strategies with Ichimoku
Kumo Twists and Turns:
The twists and turns of the Kumo offer valuable signals. A bullish twist occurs when Senkou Span A crosses above Span B, while a bearish twist is signaled by the reverse. These crossovers present entry and exit points.
The Power of Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen:
The relationship between the faster Tenkan-sen and the slower Kijun-sen offers additional insights. A bullish crossover suggests a potential uptrend, while a bearish crossover may indicate a trend reversal.
Utilizing the Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span (Chikou) acts as a momentum indicator. Confirming its position relative to the price and cloud provides a powerful confirmation tool for trend strength.
3. Practical Tips for Ichimoku Trading
Timeframe Considerations:
Adapt your approach based on the timeframe. Longer timeframes offer a broader market perspective, while shorter timeframes can reveal short-term trends.
Risk Management:
Like any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Set stop-loss orders, and ensure risk-reward ratios are carefully considered before executing a trade.
Backtesting and Practice:
Before going live, engage in extensive backtesting and paper trading. This will hone your understanding of Ichimoku signals and enhance your ability to interpret them in real-time.
4. How to Interpret Ichimoku Lines
Senkou Span:
- If the price is above the Senkou span, the top line serves as the first support level while the bottom line serves as the second support level.
- If the price is below the Senkou span, the bottom line forms the first resistance level while the top line is the second resistance level.
Kijun Sen:
- Acts as an indicator of future price movement.
- If the price is higher than the blue line, it could continue to climb higher. If below, it could keep dropping.
Tenkan Sen:
- An indicator of the market trend.
- If the red line is moving up or down, it indicates a trending market. If it moves horizontally, it signals a ranging market.
Chikou Span:
- A buy signal if the green line crosses the price from bottom-up.
- A sell signal if the green line crosses the price from top-down.
As a trend-following indicator, Ichimoku can be applied across various markets and timeframes. Emphasizing trading in the direction of the trend, it helps avoid entering the wrong side of the market.
With its combination of support and resistance levels, crossovers, oscillators, and trend indicators, Ichimoku simplifies complex analysis, making it an invaluable tool for traders seeking a comprehensive approach to technical analysis.
Dive into the charts, explore the strategies, happy trading!
Why Invest in Tradingview?As we approach the final stretch of Tradingview's Black Friday sales, I thought I would outline some reasons why you should invest in Tradingview, or more specifically, a paid membership.
Its the time of year where expenses start piling up. Christmas on the horizon. If you are a licensed professional, then you have to start renewing your license and insurance (I have two licenses to maintain sadly, which are extremely expensive). And if you live in the North Eastern United States or Canada (with the exception of you East Coasters out there), you're also looking at the heating costs and the dreaded winter tire expenses. So I get why having another expense added can be all so dreadful, especially if you are starting out as a trader and not quite profitable yet.
But here are some reasons why I think it makes sense and why I think you should support Tradingview (and yourself) through a paid membership:
1. Its tax deductible. Yup. It is. If you are a trader and relying on Tradingview in the conducting of your business, it is indeed tax deductible. Your laws and regulations may vary slightly depending on state and country, but in Canada, if you are a day trader and unincorporated, you are considered a Sole Proprietor and can write off the expense as a "business expense".
2. It provides more enhanced access to data . Not only can you use more indicators and all that fun stuff, but you can actually get more data, further back in history. As a premium member, I can pull data on the SPX from the 1800s, when people were trotting down to their local broker's office (maybe? Not sure if that was a thing but probably) in horse and carriage to sign for and purchase their very own shares in such things as the Mackintosh company.... No, not the computer company, but the very stylish raincoat manufacturer of the 1800s. Look it up.
3. Integration of brokerages: Tradingview allows you to integrate your brokerage into a more chic and functional chart platform. As I am Canadian, the brokers we have available here are pretty god awful in the functionality they permit you to do. Tradingview allows you to do far more tailored things to your charts and also provides you the ability to trade directly from your Tradingview chart! (If you are Canadian, currently only IB is the big one supported here).
4. Pinescript. I know I shill Pinescript a lot, but if you are a quantitative trader, or a trader who likes to use code and scripts in a meaningful way to help you trade, for the most part Pinescript and Tradingview are hands down the best and happy medium. While Pinescript cannot execute trades for you at this time, Pinescript, by default, has real time and direct access to exchange data, all compressed on a relatively easy to learn platform that will have you writing useful code that can really help you with a little bit of effort. I rely on Pinescript every day (see my post on Why you Should Learn Pinescript if you are interested in how it changed my trading for the better). If you want to use another platform, such as Python, your only alternative is yFinance, which has delayed data. For real time data, you would have to go to a provider such as Polygon who charges you, on average, 80$ per month to get the live data that Pinescript already has access to and is built into its native platform. And while you don't need a paid membership to use Pinescript, you need a paid membership to optimize pinescript to use more advanced or bigger codes that may take a bit longer to execute. As well, having a paid memebership grants Pinescript more access to more data (point 2 of this post).
5. Its a supportive community. Everyone on here all is doing the same thing and all has, generally, the same sense of how trading goes. We know that you win some, you lose some, you have hard days, you have bad days and your mood fluctuates with the market. No other community is as in-tuned with these nuances of the market as the Tradingview community. Trolling can and does happen sometimes on here, but not to the same extent as I have observed on other platforms, which can pretty hostile and.. let's say, unsupportive.
6. Tradingview supports all equally. Unlike Youtube or Insta or TikTok (I think? I'm Millennial so, boomer by TikTok standards) who reward you for your following, Tradingview doesn't. Having recently started their Editors Pick monetary rewards, they pick all types of people, with all types of ideas, who trade all types of instruments, regardless of their following numbers or preferred instruments. They support you and sharing your ideas, so it may be nice to return the favour to them. The same goes for Pinecoders. There have been editor's pick codes who were first time coders who just posted their first indicator. Its not the person themselves that matters to Tradingview, its the person's idea and passion and I think that's important in this type of community.
7. The vast access to tickers and exchanges! Tradingview offers you access to multiple tickers and indices and exchanges in multiple different countries. More access than any single broker does (at least, again, for us Canadians haha). In a matter of seconds, you can be checking out China's stock exchange, Germany's, Frances, London's, Canada's, Russia's, the list goes on!
8. And I forgot to add, they are constantly making improvements to their platform ! Introducing new things, like interviewing traders in livestreams, providing more functionality to Pinescript, providing more functionality for chartists, the list goes on! As we all try to improve as traders, Tradingview continually improves as a helpful platform!
Anyway, those are my thoughts. On that note, you have approximately 1 day left to get the awesome discounts, so chop to it if you want!
And if you are interested, I am not sure if it counts if you already have a Tradingview account, but you can use the referral code here, I want to say, to get 15$ if you are switching to a paid from unpaid or new account creator (hopefully I understood correctly):
www.tradingview.com
Use it, don't use it, doesn't really matter. The point I want to make is, its worth it if you are really passionate and interested and serious about trading!
That's it!
Safe trades everyone and take care!
Create No Code Auto Trading Bot with Tradingview and OKXHello Everyone,
In this tutorial, we learn about how to create simple auto trading bot using tradingview alerts and OKX exchange built in integration mechanism.
Few exchanges have come up with this kind of direct integration from tradingview alerts to exchanges and as part of this tutorial, we are exploring the interface provided by OKX.
In this session, we have discussed
🎲 Preparation Steps
Preparing tradingview account
Webhooks are only available for essential plans and plus.
Enable 2FA in your tradingview account.
Preparing your OKX account
Create OKX account, and we prefer you do the initial tests under demo account before moving to active trading account.
Bots created in demo account will not appear in the active trading account. Hence, when switching to active account, you need to create all the setup again.
🎲 OKX Tradingview Interface Features
What is supported
Auto trading based on strategy signal
Custom signals - Enter Long, Exit Long, Enter Short, Exit Short
What is not supported:
Stop/Limit orders
Bracket orders/ Complex execution templates
🎲 Weighing Pros and Cons of Using Direct Interface rather than Third party integration tools
Pros
Latency is minimal as per our observation
Easy Integration with Tradingview and Pinescript Strategy Framework and no coding required
You save cost on third parties and also avoid one hop.
More secure as your data is shared between less number of parties.
Cons
No native support for Stop/Limit orders
Mean Reversion Trading Strategies and IndicatorsMean reversion is an important concept in financial markets, offering traders the opportunity to capitalise on price fluctuations around a long-term average. This article unpacks mean reversion and explores three key trading strategies augmented by specific indicators to fine-tune entry and exit points.
Understanding Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is a theory suggesting that asset prices and historical returns eventually revert to their long-term mean or average level. This concept is widely used in the equity markets, commodities, and forex trading. The idea is that an asset that has deviated significantly from its historical average is likely to revert back. Traders often use mean reversion trading systems to take advantage of these deviations.
Mean reversion in forex is particularly fascinating. Currency pairs tend to oscillate around a central point over time, offering plenty of trading opportunities. The concept relies on two core assumptions: that the market is stable over the long term and that temporary disruptions will self-correct. However, it's essential to remember that mean reversion is not foolproof. Market conditions change, and an asset can maintain its deviated state longer than one might expect.
Exploring Mean Reversion Trading Strategies
Now that we've established a foundational understanding of mean reversion, let's delve into three distinct reversion to the mean trading strategies. If you’d like to follow along, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to access the tools discussed here.
10-Period RSI Mean Reversion
The 10-period RSI Mean Reversion trading strategy involves the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. For this strategy, traders typically set the RSI to a 10-period setting and establish overbought and oversold limits at 80 and 20, respectively. By focusing on shorter intervals, this strategy aims to capture quick reversals in price.
Entry
Traders may look for the RSI to reach or exceed 80 (overbought) or drop to 20 or lower (oversold). After reaching these levels, they often wait for the RSI to move back below 80 or above 20 before entering a trade.
Stop Loss
A common approach is to set the stop loss just beyond the entry point to minimise potential losses.
Take Profit
The trade is generally closed when the RSI reaches the midpoint of 50. This often indicates that the asset has reverted to its mean, fulfilling the primary objective of the strategy.
Fibonacci Retracement and Value Area Reversion
This strategy combines Fibonacci Retracement levels with a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) to identify potent entry and exit points. Fibonacci Retracement is a tool that identifies potential levels where price may reverse during a pullback. Here, traders focus on three key retracement levels: 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
The Fixed Range Volume Profile, on the other hand, reveals where the highest volume of trades occurred within a specific range, indicating a value area. Traders look at the largest node as an area of value, often serving as a strong support or resistance level.
Entry
Traders often look for an established trend, typically entering positions in the same direction.
After a breakout, they commonly wait for a pullback to a Fibonacci level that aligns with the value area determined by FRVP.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are usually placed just beyond the next closest Fibonacci retracement level to safeguard against unforeseen reversals.
Take Profit
Profits are often taken at the most recent significant high or low, generally, the one that initiated a reversal.
VWAP and MACD Reversion: A Day Trading Mean Reversion Strategy
In this strategy, the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is used alongside the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). VWAP serves as a benchmark, calculating the average price based on volume at each price level. This indicator is often employed for intraday trading due to its responsiveness to immediate price and volume changes.
MACD, on the other hand, is a trend-following momentum indicator that helps signify potential price reversals. Due to the intraday nature of the VWAP, this strategy is particularly well-suited for day trading, enabling traders to capitalise on fairly quick, mean-reverting price movements.
Entry
Traders often monitor for situations where the price appears visually overextended from the VWAP, either above or below it.
A MACD crossover serves as the cue for possible entry, indicating that the price may revert toward the VWAP.
Stop Loss
Typically, stop losses are set just beyond the most recent swing point to mitigate risk.
Take Profit
The position is commonly closed when the price reaches the VWAP.
In the event that the price doesn’t touch the VWAP before the trading day ends, trades can be closed just before the day finishes when the VWAP is reset.
Additional Mean Reversion Indicators
While the strategies outlined above are popular among traders, there are other indicators worth considering in the realm of mean reversion.
Bollinger Bands: These are volatility bands that expand and contract around a moving average. When the price reaches the upper or lower band, a mean-reverting move could be imminent.
Moving Averages: Simple moving averages (SMAs) and exponential moving averages (EMAs) are often used in mean reversion and algorithmic trading. They help identify the 'mean' price level around which an asset is expected to fluctuate.
Stochastic Oscillator: This momentum indicator compares an asset's closing price to its price range over a specific period. An overbought or oversold reading suggests that a mean reversion may be likely.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): This indicator measures the deviation of an asset’s price from its average price over a specific time period. CCI can be used to detect overbought or oversold markets.
MFI (Money Flow Index): This is a volume-weighted RSI, indicating overbought and oversold conditions. When used in conjunction with other indicators, it can provide additional validation for mean reversion trades.
The Bottom Line
In sum, mean reversion trading strategies offer intriguing avenues for traders to exploit price movements that deviate from long-term averages. While the strategies discussed are robust, they are by no means exhaustive. To delve deeper into these and other trading strategies, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you’ll gain access to a host of advanced tools and analytics to aid in your trading endeavours. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Economic Lessons From 2023We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak.
The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force.
When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024.
And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell.
The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners’ equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners’ equivalent rent is 25% of the price index.
Once one removes owners’ equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again.
The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
How did the price of gold change from 1970 to 2023?Hello everyone
How did the price of gold change from 1970 to 2023?
And the events that affected him
The price of gold has continued to rise over the past five decades, from an average of $36 in 1970 to $2,080 in 2023.
Despite gold's status as a long-term investment commodity, its value has declined several times. The periods of highs and lows coincided with difficult political and economic developments - investors' demand for gold as a safe haven rises when there are problems in the global economy, and weakens when things are going well.
What can we learn from the past to be able to make predictions for the future?
Gold is priced on a standard scale per ounce.
1 ounce = 31.1 grams
1970 - The average price of an ounce of gold is $36
In August 1971 - US President Richard Nixon abolished the dollar's peg to gold. The dollar was no longer converted into gold at a fixed value, $35 per ounce, and gold could be traded at fluctuating market prices
In December 1974 - For the first time in 40 years, American citizens were allowed to keep gold bullion and coins.
In June 1980 - Gold rose to a record high of $850 per ounce, as investors turned to the precious metal amid rising inflation due to strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, and the impact of the Iranian Revolution.
From 1982 to 1988 - Fluctuations in global currency exchange rates, increasing concern about the US trade deficit and banking problems, and debt in Third World countries factor into gold fluctuations between $300 and $490.
From 1989 to 1991 - this period witnessed conflict in the Arabian Gulf, the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline in the role of gold as a safe haven, and weak economic growth in general throughout the world.
From 1992 to 1996 - Gold remained relatively stable.
In August 1999 - The price of gold fell to its lowest level at $251.70 when central banks began reducing their gold reserves and mining companies sold gold in the futures markets to protect them from the decline.
In February 2003 - The price of gold rose after it was considered a safe haven in the period leading up to the war in Iraq.
December 2003 – Gold surpassed $400, reaching levels at which it was last traded in 1988. Gold was increasingly purchased by investors as a hedging tool for their investment portfolios.
November 2005 – Spot gold trading exceeded $500 for the first time since December 1987, when it reached $502.97.
May 12, 2006 - Gold prices rose to $730 per ounce as investors turned to commodities as a result of the weak dollar, stable oil prices, and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
On June 2, 2008 - Spot gold exceeded $850.
March 13, 2008 – Trading in the benchmark gold contract exceeds $1000 for the first time in the US futures market.
On March 17, 2008 - the price of spot gold reached its highest level at 1030.80 per ounce.
On September 17, 2008 - the price of spot gold jumped nearly $90 per ounce - a single-day record, as investors sought a safe haven amid turmoil in the stock market.
February 20, 2009 – Gold once again rose above $1,000 per ounce to reach $1,005.40 during the financial crisis.
December 1, 2009 – Gold exceeds $1,200 per ounce for the first time as the dollar declines.
On May 11, 2010 - Gold recorded a new high, exceeding $1,230 per ounce after investors resorted to gold as a safer investment haven with continued concerns about debt contagion in the Eurozone.
September 17, 2010 – Gold reached a new record high exceeding 1,282 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and economic uncertainty.
September 2011 – The Eurozone debt crisis prompts investors to shift money into gold, causing its price to rise to 1,923 per ounce.
From 2012 to 2015 - Gold continued to decline as fears of a full-blown banking crisis eased after 2011, with gold reaching $1,094 in August 2015.
In June 2016 - Brexit and its unknown consequences fuel a gold rush. Gold rose to its highest level in two years at $1,358.
June 2017 – Gold reaches a year-high of $1,294 before falling back to an average of $1,200.
On August 3, 2020, gold rose to the highest level in its history at 2,075 per ounce, as concerns about the economic repercussions of the coronavirus outbreak prompted investors to rush towards safe havens.
Gold prices witnessed a record high with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, exceeding the threshold of $2,070 per ounce.
Over the course of five days in March 2023, three small-to-mid-size U.S. banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in global bank stock prices and a swift response by regulators to prevent potential global contagion. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed when a bank run was triggered after it sold its Treasury bond portfolio at a large loss, causing depositor concerns about the bank's liquidity. Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, both with significant exposure to cryptocurrency, failed in the midst of turbulence in that market.
The escalation in Gaza directly affected gold, with prices rising by about $2007 per ounce, which reflects investors’ demand for safe havens.
I hope you got some knowledge from this!
if you have any questions let me know...
Thanks
trading movies and what they can teach about financial marketsthese incredible films bridge a gap between entertainment and education, providing insight about the global markets and what often goes by in the background and yet help keeping the boredom away.
1.THE WOLF OF WALL STREET - dir: Michael Scorsese. Dec 25, 2013 (crime/comedy)
this movie follows and reflects on the life of Jordan Belfort and his rise to wealth as a stockbroker selling penny stocks and blue chip stocks living his best life to his epic downfall caused by financial fraud, drugs. This film can teach traders how to sell any product and the importance of confidence in the trading/investing world.
2.THE BIG SHORT - dir: Adam Mckay. Dec 11, 2015 (comedy/drama)
this film is based on the true-life events of the 2008 financial crash which began with cheap and lax lending standards that fueled a housing bubble. The film follows 3 stories of Michael Burry(hedge fund manager), Jared Venett(trader) and Geller and Shipley(investors) who made a fortune from the housing market decline. This movie teaches traders/investors that unpredictable events take place in the financial markets and the psychological pressures that investors experience and understanding the complexity of various financial instruments and importance of risk management.
3.WALL STREET - dir: Oliver Stone. Dec 11, 1987 crime/drama
this crime film follows a junior stockbroker Bud Fox who enters a different league in the trading game getting involved in stock manipulation and insider trading while trying not to get caught doing all this to impress his supervisor Gordon Gekko. this movie teaches traders that greed is not always bad as MR.Gekko says himself
4.INSIDE JOB - dir: Charles Ferguson. Oct 8, 2010 documentary/drama
this is a similiar film as "the big short" but this one is distinctive as its a 5 part series bases on the 2008 financial crisis shows traders also on corruption and more in-depth look on how everything started, the bubble, the actual crisis and all that resulted after.
5.BOILER ROOM - dir: Ben Younger. Feb 18, 2000 thriller/drama
this film follows a student who drops out of college and also runs an illegal casino, with pressure to make tons of wealth a appease his father, he gets to work for a CEO of an investment company which is known for its shady dealings of pump and dump of unprofitable stocks with encounters from the feds using him to get to the big fish of the operation. This movie teaches traders about the importance of confidence and to increase it is to want, do and be more.
6.TOO BIG TO FAIL - dir: Curtis Hanson. May 23, 2011 drama
this is another film about the 2008 financial crisis based on a book of the same title by Andrew Ross. As the title says the movie focuses on the 'too big to fail" corporations and how their shortcomings can criple the global financial system. It gives an inside look on how Washington and Wall street try to tackle this and save the financial system. This film teaches traders the significance of stability and balance.
7.ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM - dir: Alex Gibney. April 22, 2005
his is one of the best scam/fraud movies of all time following the fall of Enron corporation showing the cracks on the wall of most modern big corporation scams. the movie shows how top executives of the firm's collapse through illegal activities like increasing stock prices and selling the at very high prices causing a crash in the market. This film however teaches traders/investors that greed has no honor and that a plan is needed for any kind of longevity and success to happen.
8.FLOORED - dir: James Allen Smith. Sep 1, 2009 documentary/indie film
this is documentary film that shines light on Chicago based traders trading on the Chicago Board Of Operations exchange floor. This documentary focuses on the trill and excitement and high energy paced work force of a trading floor. it gives retail traders an inside look on the kind of emotions traders on a floor go trough and how the rise of computer based trading has affected the livelihood of traders working in trading floors.
please do comment on your favorite trading/investing movies
put together by : Pako Phutietsile (@currencynerd)
Why You should Trade With Your Spouse PermissionLet's talk about John, who loves to make quick stock market choices. He used to decide alone and felt good about it. But after marrying Emma, who likes to think things through, they started making these choices together. This change brought something unexpected – John started doing better in his trades.
Understanding the Effect of Asking Your Spouse Before Trading:
A study by experts Terry Odean and Brad Barber looked at how asking your spouse before trading affects how well you do.
papers.ssrn.com
Table: How Well People Trade with or without Spouse's Permission
This table shows us something interesting. When men checked with their wives before trading, they were more careful and made better choices. But single men, who traded a lot and didn’t ask anyone, didn’t do as well.
For women, it was different. Those who had to ask their husbands didn't do as well as women who made choices on their own. This might mean that when husbands get involved, they could add pressure or confusion, affecting women’s trading in a not-so-good way.
This study makes us think differently about trading alone. It shows that talking things over, especially in marriages, can actually lead to smarter choices in the stock market. It also reminds us that sometimes, sharing decisions can be better than going at it alone.
So men, if you just had a series of bad trades, you might do better by consulting with your spouse.
And for single men who had bad trades you might need to get yourself a woman.
How To Build A Trading Journal That Helps You Make MoneyHey everyone!
In this video, we discuss why trading journals are important, talk about how to avoid common pitfalls in using them, and go over the keys to implementing one successfully in your own trading.
Over time, a well-crafted trading journal can actually help you make money, while building out the most important skill you can acquire as a trader: pattern recognition.
We also cover three main principles that you can use if you already have a journal set up that isn't working as you'd like. Be sure to:
1.) Keep it simple.
2.) Track the right things.
3.) Follow up regularly.
Do these, and it's impossible you won't get significantly better over the next 6 months - year.
Cheers!
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