jvrfxalerts

jvrfxalerts

Yup, the heading of this idea is very much tongue in cheek. The Euro is fundamentally on the backfoot, especially after the confusing FOMC "we are slowing down while walking into this dark room" rate cut. WTH??? No need to cut because the Labor market is A OK, but we are cutting anyway because inflation may increase again. Call me dumb but I replayed that Press...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders Clarification: CAD is also referred to as the loonie, a former Canadian one dollar coin. The 50 base point cut by the BoC was expected. The CAD strengthened against the USD and CAD immediately afterwards. Classic knee jerk reaction of buy the rumor, sell the news. Both EUR/CAD and EUR/USD have found support on the 4H chart. The EURO has been on the...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, NOT INVESTMENT OR TRADING ADVICE The fundamental backdrop for a bearish EUR/USD continuation stays unchanged in my opinion. This morning's reaction to new jobless claims was probably a knee jerk reaction since the release is only 24 hours away from NFP data and two weeks away from the FOMC rate decision. And the BOJ decision....

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders I have the opportunity to catch the opening bell of the NY, Asian and London/Europe markets. It does come at a cost with interrupted sleep when necessary but the pay off is worth it. I trade EUR/USD in the morning and the JPY crosses in the afternoon with the focus on AUD/JPY. The technical indicators, in my opinion, point to the possibility that a...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I added to my short during the NY session at 1.0520. My 20 point trailing limit stop was triggered at 1.0440. The gap from the weekly opening was filled right at the 4H high of 1.0424. That is one of the many reasons why I trade EUR/USD in the morning and AUD/JPY during the Asian session. Massive liquidity. I initiated a long position at 1.0430 and first target...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hello traders. Happy new trading week. The Asian session kicked off the new week with quite a dramatic drop in the Dollar Index. On the daily and 4H charts it has reached support. The weekly value i comfortably above all MA's. I exited my EUR/USD short at the 4H close which was right at the 50% retracement of the 0.95361-1.12758. I suspected that the dramatic...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders DISCLAIMER: I am publishing my idea based on historical events, not on a partisan basis. My political affiliation is not important. What is important, is history and how it repeats itself. This article sums up how I feel about the US election. www.tradingview.com I believe the "Trump trade" has already started to wind down but is far from over....

jvrfxalerts

Hello Traders Happy new trading week. US markets are closed tomorrow, so beware of impulse price movements. I have initiated a long EUR/USD position at 1.0917. I looked at the impulse price movement after the US CPI and weekly jobless claims to determine the reason for the initial price low/high. And not surprisingly, it corresponds to a two day closing level...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders I did not take a long from 1.0942 as mentioned in my previous idea. I was waiting for USD CPI and jobless claims to print. The knee jerk reaction higher was probably due to a distortion in the jobless numbers caused by the tragic effect of the hurricane/s in the south east. Also, the continued furlough of Boeing workers. A reminder, just like NFP,...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. The blowout NFP number has muddied the waters again. Time to recalibrate. More jobs created, higher earnings, lower unemployment rate: all USD positives because the FOMC is now expected to cut only 25basis point on Nov 7th. The "CME FedWatch" now places the probability of a 50 base point cut at 3.8%. Great for the USD but no so great for the...

jvrfxalerts

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this brief post are entirely my own. It is not intended as a sales pitch or investing advice of any kind. I no longer subscribe to any social media platforms. I do not have the time to engage in and contribute to these platforms. My family and close friends know how to reach me. It does not mean that I do not understand the...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. Yes, I have initiated a long position. My second short reached 1.1085 overnight. In hindsight I should have used a trailing stop to bank more pips but a good night's sleep comes first. Price reached several different types of parallel support. *Monthly close August 2024 1.1047 *200D MA 1.1039 *Daily close Sept 3rd which was also a break...

jvrfxalerts

Hello fellow traders Happy Monday or in my case happy Sunday from San Francisco, CA. I would like to start on a deeply personal level. Please indulge me. My current profile picture is of my beloved 12 year old Abyssinian boy, Jagger, who passed after a brief struggle with cancer. It shattered our family, including his little sister, Daisy Duke, who shared her...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders The range of this most traded pair has been confined between 1.10 and 1.12 for the last twelve trading sessions. A lot of the price action has felt like taking the stairs up and the escalator down during the next session. I apologize if there seems to be a lot going on on the charts but this is the only way I can make sense of what is happening. The...

jvrfxalerts

Hi traders. I have taken a short position after an hourly close below the upper border of the down channel with a very tight stop. This move up has also reset the RSI on the 2 hour chart. The second rate cut by the ECB came as no surprise since the powerhouse, Germany, has not had very good economic prints recently. Inflation has also softened, although Ms....

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. We may be approaching an important infection point for the USD. I do not necessarily trade any of these assets but I do keep a close eye on FX, gold, stocks, bonds and crypto to gain a better understanding of the current trend and risk appetite. So, where to from here after Chair Powell confirmed that rate cuts are coming? I was slightly surprised...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. I exited my EUR/USD short positions for a modest profit. The price is currently touching the the 7 and 200 MA's at 1.0826/4 with the 10 and 100 MA's just below at 1.0811/12. While I am still bearish EUR/USD, there won't be any definitive outcome until USD GDP and PCE have printed and the finale for the week, EUR CPI. I am considering going long between...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hello Traders. This is a follow up to IDEA 18. www.tradingview.com The massive daily doji candle up to 1.0888 makes perfect sense. It retested the 1/24/24 and 1/26/24 daily closes and did not retest the 1.0897 daily close of 1/19/24. I am still short and on the weekly chart, one can see the power of the Fibonacci extension in play. The weekly close is just below...