Upside potential for BTC. It might be developing corrective patern or impulsive move above $4135 A or 3rd
Probably everyone ask question if recent compression leads to upside or downside. Unfortunately price action in the box have characteristics of both. For Bulls you can count 3 sets of 1-2s and Bears can find corrective ABC where circle a is equal to circle c and A is equal to C. We need to ask how both price actions can be explain on broader scoop. The Bear...
We are facing three possibilities after recent dip below 9K. Running ZIGZAG: Simple Five waves up from circle 4 to meet lower uptrend channel band and exceeding end of wave circle 3 ($9700) might be end of circle 5. In this scenario we do not need to exceed 10k to complete. top of circle 3 is sufficient. Wave A is equal C Running Triangle: Move to red D that...
We just reached new high that means decline from last 9700 was just correction in intimidate trend up. New top might be end of wave 5 wit red triangle in place, but on the same time it may be part of wave B in barrier triangle. Just notice trend channel from $6400 level. Wave 4 usually go outside the channel to cam back to finish wave 5. It worth notice that...
The price action at (c) did not follow thru $8800 level adding to possibility of building a triangle. Extended fifth becomes 5th of 3rd and odds of whole move from $6400 level becoming wave 1 of larger bull increases. Decline below 8650 invalidates the count.
It seams we developing series of 1s and 2s supporting idea of local top already in place at $9700
The whole action since $9761 top looks corrective. Right now we are at 0.786 retrecement level of possible wave 1. Right place for wave 2. Pattern looks very close to completion but there are difficulties with interpreting wave Y. Otherwise we have series of zigzags and Flats.
It "always" retrace to wave 2 of extended wave. in our case it is around $7900.
It seams (1) is equal to (5). It would be good for bulls if we have extension.
It is possible that we are steps away from completion of 5 wave rise from 6400 bottom. last 5th develops to ending diagonal and within last 5th is ending diagonal in making. possibility until validated.
The Red downtrend line is not far away but we may have trend changing Reversal Island in place. en.wikipedia.org
If we just poke the main bear trend line there is alternative to go lower to 5K - 5.5K. Keep Stops tight.
Wave count overlaps slightly but not much. It is not validated yet.
Both Log and regular one should be used when checking for support, resistant lines. logarithmic Arithmetic
"While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when throw-over occurs." "A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began (4) and typically much further." Elliott Wave Principle Frost and Prechter \ BITFINEX:BTCUSD