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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD IDEAThere is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market. Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance. Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse. Resistance levels: 2658, 2675 Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FOREXRSMV
Gold price analysis December 18Fundamental Analysis Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the $2,633 area, or above a one-week low, and attracted some buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The rise may have been due to some repositioning ahead of key central bank event risks, although the upside is likely to remain limited as traders may opt to await the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting later today. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points and adopt a more cautious stance on future rate cuts. Technical Analysis As the previous analysis shows, gold prices are still in a downtrend until they close above 2690. 2664 is not seen as a key resistance zone at the moment. We have to wait until the 2673 and 2690 zones for the price to continue to be the focus zone of today for the main SELL strategies. The destination zone is 2633 and 2615 for the SELL strategies. Trading price zone BUY zone 2634-2632 Stoploss 2629 BUY zone 2616-2614 Stoploss 2611 SELL zone 2673-2675 Stoploss 2678 SELL zone 2691-2693 Stoploss 2696
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
XAU/USD 18 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: I have been mapping systematically. Since last analysis, price has been printing erratically, printing a bearish iBOS, followed by a double bullish iBOS and most recently a bearish iBOS. Price is trading within an established internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ and has minimally tapped in to M15 supply zone. Price is expected to target weak internal low priced at 2,642.830 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Is Gold will fall on fomc?We closed our bearish trades at 2633 which gives spectacular results ,we started selling from 2645. For today what we have ? Market got rejection from 2633 area and retraced back upwards which confusing the traders ,as we announced in our commentary Market in in rangbound from 2665-2630 area. Today if market closes above 2648 area then our eyes will be at 2665 where we will wait and watch the market momentum and wait for the confirmation of rejection or either more pull up. On the other hand ,if the H4 closes below 2640 area then our eyes will be 2620 first then 2605 in extension. Additionally XAUUSD Price-action is in down trend we can expect more down side after clearing 2660 area. Today FOMC is also comming and we are expecting gold may rise till FOMC then got rejection from 2660-2665. however,our eyes still on 2600 benchmark.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forexmaestro121
Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645. However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level. As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision. Technical Perspective: At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses. Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target. FED's Influence: The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
4
Gold on Sell values / Selling order engagedTechnical analysis: The former Support of #2,652.80 (Xau-Usd Spot) has turned into a Resistance in a symmetrical manner as it has done on December #5 fractal, as Gold is eyeing even Lower level. The Resistance zone is at #2,648.80 - #2,652.80 on Hourly 4 chart however looking at the wider time-frame of Daily chart’s Descending Channel and the Higher High’s former trendline, I am expecting a decline around #2,627.80 if #2,640.80 pressure point preserves the downtrend. After that it is anybody's guess but Technically, Gold should see a similar pullback to November #25 Low's again in extension, way below #2,652.80 psychological benchmark (Medium-term decline). However, no changes on the Daily perspective as the Price-action remains Neutral above the Hourly 4 chart’s Support for the session and below the Short-term Resistance, as DX paused the downtrend. #2,652.80 - #2,662.80 should represent ultimate Top for the fractal since Gold already negated (#60%) of gains delivered on current Buying sequence, as Gold currently isolated within #2 Short-term benchmarks (typical Support and Resistance pricing). My aim is roughly #2,622.80 - #2,627.80 Support zone which can be correlated to the Technical Lower High's Upper zone within (will be then) invalidated Ascending Channel. As noted on my remarks, current configuration needs to be reviewed on with a Selling entry near Medium-term Selling accumulation zone which accounts for this week and the next Trading week. My position: Even though I have missed #2,648.80 Selling break-out, I have engaged Selling order with #2,643.80 entry point few moments ago / optimal Target remains #2,627.80 Support in extension. However since #2,642.80 could reverse the Price-action towards #2,648.80 Resistance (break of can restore Short-term uptrend), my Stop is already on breakeven. Since most Traders will Buy #2,642.80, I do believe Gold will extend the decline and trap many Buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
2
Trend analysis and strategy, continue to look at reboundGold bottomed out and rebounded on the daily line, MA10/7-day moving averages were flat at 2661/70, and the RSI indicator was running at the 50 value of the middle axis. The short-term four-hour chart bottomed out and rebounded, and the Bollinger Band lower track 2630 was supported to a certain extent. The hourly moving average golden cross opened upward, and the RSI indicator bottom diverged and stood above the middle axis. The callback during today's trading day is still mainly for low-price longs, and then consider selling. After yesterday's decline, gold continued to return to volatility. After today, the NY market will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision, so gold will most likely continue to fluctuate before the Fed's interest rate decision, and then wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to decide the winner. The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position. The gold rebound still focuses on the resistance near the last high of 2667 and continues to see a volatile decline. Gold rebounds above 2660 and can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 2633 first-line support below. Gold fluctuates in this range and waits for the Fed's interest rate decision before choosing a direction. First support: 2640, second support: 2633, third support: 2615 First resistance: 2658, second resistance: 2667, third resistance: 2678 Trading strategy: Before the US interest rate decision, sell high and buy low in the range of 2633~2667
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
Xauusd sell target today 2628 possibleHere's a summary of your updated XAU/USD trade plan: Trade Plan - _Entry Point_: 2650 - _Target_: 2628 - _Stop-Loss_: 2659 Market Analysis The XAU/USD is experiencing a minor correction, driven by a short-term strengthening of the US dollar. Technical Analysis - _RSI Indicator_: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating a short-term bearish momentum. - _Moving Averages_: The 50-day moving average is trending downwards, supporting the bearish view. - _Support Levels_: The support levels at 2628 and 2620 could provide a buying opportunity in case of a further pullback. Risk Management - _Risk-Reward Ratio_: Your risk-reward ratio is approximately 1:1.7, which is relatively conservative. - _Position Sizing_: Make sure to adjust your position size according to your risk tolerance and account size. Stay disciplined and stick to your trade plan. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Geroge_Fx
Gold Technical Analysis 17/12/2024 ### Current Price: 2658.00 #### Our Preference - Short Positions: We favor opening short positions below the resistance level of 2665.00. - Targets: Watch for potential targets at 2643.00 and subsequently at 2635.00 for extended moves. #### Alternative Scenario - Bullish Outlook: If the price moves above 2665.00, we may see further upside potential. - Targets for Upside Movement: Key levels to watch include 2674.00 and 2689.00. #### Comments - As long as the price remains below 2665.00, we anticipate a choppy price action with a bearish bias. Traders should remain cautious and reactive to the price movements around this key level. ### Key Support and Resistance Levels - Resistance Levels: - 2689.00 - 2674.00 - 2665.00 - Support Levels: - 2656.00 (Last Price) - 2643.00 - 2635.00 - 2613.00 ### Technical Patterns - Bearish Pennant: Monitor for a potential breakdown of the one-hour bearish pennant. If this pattern breaks to the downside, we could see the price target the 2635.00 to 2613.00 area. - Bullish Confirmation: Conversely, if the price closes above 2666.00 on an hourly candle, it may suggest that gold could rally, with targets set at 2687.00 and 2691.00. ### Conclusion In summary, keep a close eye on the dynamics around 2665.00. The next moves will heavily depend on how the market reacts to this resistance level. Depending on whether the bearish pennant breaks down or if we see a strong close above 2666.00, traders should be prepared for swift price action in both directions. Trade Wisely!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SRFXGlobal