USDPLN trade ideas
USD/PLN 1H Chart: US Dollar breaches long-term channelUSD/PLN had been trading in a descending channel in force since mid-November, 2016. After breaching this pattern last week, the Greenback retraced from its upper boundary early on Monday.
Thus, the dominant pattern now is an ascending channel which was formed mid-July. The rate’s trading range within this pattern has diminished, as it has failed to touch the bottom channel boundary on two separate occasions.
From theoretical point of view, the breakout from the senior channel should be followed by a surge. This is likewise supported by the pair’s upward-sloping movement in the junior channel.
The rate is supported by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly and monthly PP and the weekly S1 in the 3.64/3.60 territory.
In general, it is likely that one of these levels pressures the US Dollar for a reversal, thus paving the way for a surge in the medium-term.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel UpUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel Up
The American Dollar is trading against the Polish Zloty in two week long ascending channel that started to form after the currency exchange rate changed a direction and jumped through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs to the top.
By the moment, it consists of four confirmation points, which means that it has reached maturity and might be broken in the nearest future.
The breakout might occur even earlier, as the currency pair is simultaneously moving in a junior descending channel whose existence became evident after the buck failed to pass through the monthly PP at 3.6490 yesterday.
On the other hand, the road downstairs is secured by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 3.6252.
On the gradual surge to the top additionally point out traders’ mood, which is 72% bullish.
Interesting position on the Polish zloty (USD/PLN)!On a monthly chart, the price pushed away from point 3 of the rising channel and on the weekly chart was closed by takeover. Also the price rebounded from the horizontal support 3.52688.
There are two options. The first is buying when the market opens. The second is buying from the middle of the takeover: Buy Limit 3.5500, SL = 3.4900, TP1 = 3.7000, TP2 = 4.1000.
Oleg Svirgun
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Ascending WedgeThe US Dollar is trading in an ascending wedge against the Polish Zloty. It might be assumed that the given pattern has reached its maturity that might result in a breakout this week.
Ascending wedge is a continuation pattern that should guide the pair southwards, breaching a support cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 3.6430. A possible downside target could be set near the 3.62 mark—a level reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP.
The aforementioned limit may likewise work as a reversal point after which the pair could make a retracement to the bottom wedge line. However, in case bears prevail, rate may fall down to the weekly S1 near 3.59.
USDPLN, I would like to see another high before the break.USDPLN has reached an important area that has proven difficult to break in the past. Currently forming a large rising wedge, the price has been well contained in a downward channel, I would like to see another test of the top before it breaks lower. Looking for signs of reversal before buying the pair for a good leg higher. Should it breaks, I'd be looking lower.
Potential bullish divergence spottedExpecting to see a short term bottom on this pair. Aiming for a test of 3.80 area before more downside continues
Trade at your own risk!
Good luck.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending TriangleUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
The American Dollar is losing value against the Polish Zloty in a pattern that has the features of a descending triangle.
An impulse necessary for its formation was given by an announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday.
In theory, the currency rate should exit the pattern in the southern direction.
On validity of this scenario indicate combination of the 20-, 55-, 100-, 200-period SMAs and the weekly PP that exercise pressure on the pair from the top.
On the other hand, the lower trend-line coincides with the monthly S2 at 3.6160, which has already proved to be a strong support barrier (6 prior rebounds).
Besides, there is a chance that even if the pair breaks downwards, the fall would be stopped near 3.6107, to which point out three William’s fractals.
USD/PLN Short term tradeIn the 4hr TF:
1) Price touches kijun sen. Will the candle close above kijun sen???
2) %K crosses %D from below.
3) The angles of %K and %D are at 45 degrees.
4) Current Stochastic value = 60
5) Kumo has two flat resistance lines.
In the daily TF:
1) Stochastic is at oversold.
The long term trend is bearish. Therefore, this is a short term long trade. Do not trade this pair if uncomfortable. However, the risk to reward ratio is decent and is worth a try.
TP 1 = 3.6680
TP 2 = 3.6730
TP 3 = 3.6730
SL = 3.6190
USD/PLD 4HR Head and Shoulders Pattern Head and shoulder pattern emerging on the 4 HR chart for USD/PLD. The pair moved back up to the neckline and waiting to bounce or break through resistance. Follows, Comments, and Likes are appreciated!
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel DownUSD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is depreciating against the Polish Zloty simultaneously in two descending channels.
The junior inner channel formed after the currency pair bounced off from a combined resistance level set up by the senior pattern’s upper trend-line and the 100-hour SMA.
In the first half of Monday the rate is expected to approach the bottom edge of the junior channel, which is secured by the monthly S1 at 3.6636.
Due to this additional support line, the pair most probably is going to make another rebound and surge to the weekly PP at 3.6889.
Various technical indicators support this scenario, pointing out that the currency pair is oversold .
In general, it is unlikely that the pair will manage to break from the channels to the top, as the northern side is additionally protected by the 55- and 100-period SMAs.
The second try to break 3,70.The Polish zloty is pushing again to the support level at 3,70.
If this level get broken, next support level is at 3,52. The best entry for this move, will be when price return to the new resistance level.
However if bulls push price back, there is a sharp downtrend channel, so there is high probability of third try to break 3,70.
USDPLN - Decision point....USDPLN @ the critical area on daily chart around 3,82-3,83 (0,618retr+ Overbalance correction).
We have nice confirmation of Fibo timing:
- 1st correction(time)/2nd correction(time) = 1,272
- 2nd correction(time)/3rd correction(tie) = 0,786
Next resistance area around 3,85.
Midterm target profit 3,62-3,67.
Trade responsibly.
