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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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11/22 EU Monthly Bullish Swing for the StarsHello all, here is my Update of what I am seeing on EU Just to give context the: Orange line - 4h Yellow line - Daily Red line - 1h White line - Monthly Black line - Weekly I am more of a dynamic trader and will intraday, or swing depending on the situation and sometimes can take my entries on the 1m like i did for this position which allowed for me to have a 5 pip Stop loss in this instance I use dynamic trend lines meaning i move them and adjust them as the market develops and when candles close, so what may look like a lot of lines really isn't what I have up all the time. This is just for visual aid to show you what I can see without the lines (sometimes) now with that out of the way. After my previous EU posts and losses I re analyzed and let the market play out a bit more and was able to see an area that I had not marked off as a weekly support although after a previous push up it broke the then resistance and is now using it for support I was able to zoom in on the daily and analyze the area where it broke and retested on the monthly now on the daily timeframe and mark of a zone that aligned with the Monthly support. This helped me to build my confluence. We also have the currently Weekly candle over more recent Weekly and Monthly Support, which also further adds to my idea of a transitions and list of confluences. As I've stated before we usually get that deeper pullback on those support and resistance areas sometimes, that is something I have personally noticed with EU I was then able to zoom in on the 4h with all of this info now known and analyze the exhaustion I was seeing on the higher timeframe, this led me to notice the 4H support formed during London session, and I was able to mark that off as a 4H support area and use that as a base to zoom in more to find a lower timeframe zone that aligned with the 4h support I then zoomed in to the 15m because that timeframe correlates with 4h and I was able to see a zone that I personally marked off on the 5m but can clearly be seen on the 15m. At NY (or a little before) I was able to mark off the 1h Support and resistance (red lines) this helped me to see if it broke on the lower timeframes to then wait a bit more and possibly re analyze for a different entry, but we just tested the 1h support and on the close of the candle at 11:30 I entered for a long targeting 1.15580 risking 5 pips I do feel that next weeks news and closure will be the determining factor as far as holding long term but I will continue to update and manage the position and scale in when possible. I do have all of my confluences in alignment so I am confident in this position after re-assessing things. I know it is Friday and there isn't much volume left in the market but I will be back bright and early next week!
Long
by Bhenderson22
1
EUR/USD – Weak Start to the WeekEUR/USD – Weak Start to the Week The EUR/USD pair began the week with declines, driven by macroeconomic data releases and political tensions within the eurozone. --- Macroeconomic Data Impact On Monday, the final reading of the **HCOB Manufacturing PMI** for the eurozone in November was released, showing a figure of **45.2**, in line with expectations. This continues to signal weakness in the industrial sector, contributing to euro depreciation. --- Political Issues in France Political turbulence in France further weighed on the euro. Key developments included: - Budget Dispute: Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced potential no-confidence votes as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to oppose the government’s budget proposal. - Concessions: The French government dropped plans to reduce medication reimbursements to secure RN support. - Market Reaction: French bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield briefly surpassing Greece’s. The CAC 40 stock index fell 1.1% in early trading. --- ECB Comments Statements from European Central Bank members also hinted at potential monetary easing: - Olli Rehn** and **Yannis Stournaras suggested further rate cuts are likely in December due to persistent inflation concerns. - Martin Kazaks mentioned the possibility of discussing larger rate cuts, though he acknowledged significant uncertainty. --- Seasonality and EUR/USD Historically, December has been a favorable month for the euro against the dollar, driven by reduced market liquidity and year-end position adjustments. However, under the current market conditions, with weak eurozone data and robust U.S. performance, seasonality may not be sufficient to reverse the prevailing bearish trend for EUR/USD. --- USD Stability The U.S. dollar remains relatively stable, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and comments from Federal Reserve officials. - Fed Officials’ Remarks : - John Williams: The NY Fed President noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and emphasized data dependence. He expects inflation to gradually decline to 2% and forecasts U.S. GDP growth of around 2.5% in 2024. - Christopher Waller: The Fed Governor expressed support for a December rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and concerns about inflation stagnating above 2%. - Raphael Bostic: The Atlanta Fed President stated that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target and emphasized the strong footing of the U.S. economy while remaining open to future policy adjustments. - U.S. Economic Data : - ISM Manufacturing PMI (November): Increased to 48.4, above expectations but still indicating contraction. - Construction Spending (October): Rose by 0.4%. --- Outlook for EUR/USD Despite last week’s gains, the long-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. The eurozone's economic data continues to underperform, adding pressure on the ECB to accelerate rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and steady growth. While seasonal factors might provide temporary support for the euro, the current market dynamics suggest limited potential for sustained EUR/USD appreciation.
Short
by InvestMate
2
EURUSD-Trade Plan (First Week of December) Dear Traders, Following a substantial sell-off, the Euro has entered a corrective phase. However, based on , I expect a short-term pullback to the 1.04500 level early next week. This downward movement should be seen as a corrective wave within a broader bearish trend. Subsequently, a bounce back towards the 1.06600-1.07000 resistance zone is likely. Once this resistance is tested, I anticipate the Euro will resume its downward trajectory, with a potential target at 1.02." "If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content." Regards, Alireza!
Short
by alirezak
Will EURUSD Break Higher or Slide Further?EURUSD has been forming an inverse head and shoulders since November 14. However, it’s too early to assume prices will head higher, especially given the fundamentals, which all favor the downside. Coupled with yesterday’s slide, this suggests prices could move lower as long as they remain below 1.0550. The next support levels are 1.0465, followed by 1.0425. What’s your take on EURUSD? Share your ideas below. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
EURUSD - Potential Outlook for 03/12/2024EURUSD has completed bullish move and rejected on resistance level. EMA50 is nearing a cross of MA200 and this could potentially open lower levels. Break of resistance will open above levels. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Short
by MarketsPOV