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ECONOMIC FAMINE (PART 2)OVERVIEW The EUR/USD pair is locked in a strong downtrend, with major resistance at 1.13835 and critical support at 0.6155. A break below 0.8931 could signal severe economic implications. Technical indicators, including moving averages and oscillators, are predominantly bearish, with recent patterns hinting at a potential short-term bullish recovery above 1.0610, targeting levels like 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320. Fundamentally, interest rate cuts by the ECB and Fed are key drivers of recent price action, keeping the pair in a narrow range. Long-term forecasts predict further euro weakness, making this a crucial time for traders to manage risk effectively. Position traders should watch for potential breakdowns below key support, while short-term traders may find opportunities in bullish momentum above resistance levels. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a pronounced downtrend on the monthly timeframe, marked by significant pivot points: Pivot High: 1.16164 Resistance Level (Major): 1.13835 Resistance Level (Minor): 1.0630 Support Levels: 0.6155 (critical) and 0.5633 (pivot low). A close below 0.8931 would confirm a larger, catastrophic economic downturn, with price movements potentially signaling a "Global Economic Famine." Oscillators Indicators such as RSI (42.91), Stochastic %K (34.56), and Commodity Channel Index (-167.50) remain neutral, suggesting low momentum for a strong reversal in the short term. Momentum (-0.030) and MACD Level (-0.00416) indicate sell signals, aligning with the bearish sentiment. Moving Averages All major EMAs and SMAs across periods (10 to 200) are aligned as sell signals, emphasizing the persistent bearish trend. The Ichimoku Base Line at 1.05029 is neutral, providing limited support for bullish recovery. TECHNICAL PATTERN OBSERVATIONS A double-top formation at 1.1200 in September signaled bearish control, supported by a death cross in EMAs. Recent inverse head-and-shoulders at 1.0333 suggests a potential bullish recovery if the price sustains above 1.0610, targeting 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Interest Rate Outlook: In 2024, expectations for central bank rate cuts influenced the EUR/USD trading range between 1.0600–1.1210. The European Central Bank (ECB) initiated a rate cut in June (4.50% to 4.25%), while the US Federal Reserve followed in September (5.50% to 5.0%). Forecasts & Risks: Long-term projections for 2026-2027 show the euro likely declining to 1.0250–1.0300, with adjustments possible based on macroeconomic shifts. If resistance at 1.0630 is broken, the EUR/USD may target the 1.0960–1.1260 range. However, failure to maintain these levels will reinforce the broader bearish trend. STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS Position Traders: Watch the critical support at 0.8931—a breach signals significant economic risks. Short-Term Traders: Closely monitor the 1.0610 level. Bullish action above this may present buying opportunities toward 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320 but bearish dominance remains strong.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
ECONOMIC CRASH (PART 1), anticipatoryMARKET OVERVIEW Recent data analysis highlights a significant concern regarding the EUR/USD market. With historical precedents and critical market behavior, the possibility of a global economic decline of -16.38% seems probable. This aligns with currency fundamentals where EUR (Financial Capital) and USD (Currency Capital) maintain critical global influence. The EUR/USD market currently reflects bearish sentiments, with technical and fundamental indicators aligning toward potential downside risks. This is a pivotal time for traders to implement robust strategies, safeguard equity, and leverage automated tools for precision execution. Key Technical Levels Pivot High: 1.16164 Resistance: 1.13835 Support: 0.89311 Pivot Low: 0.86321 Trend Analysis: The overarching "Big Picture Curve" reflects a long-term downtrend, strongly indicative of a potential market crash. Oscillators: The oscillators currently show mixed signals, with a bias toward downtrend Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42.91 (Neutral) Momentum (10): -0.03028 (Sell) MACD Level (12,26): -0.00416 (Sell) Stochastic RSI Fast: 16.42 (Neutral) Moving Averages: All moving averages point to a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish outlook: EMA/SMA (10): Sell EMA/SMA (50): Sell EMA/SMA (200): Sell Ichimoku Base Line: Neutral Anticipated Market Behavior Given the alignment of bearish technical indicators and economic projections: A break below 0.89311 (Support) could accelerate a larger move downward, potentially confirming a secondary crash scenario or what I like to call a FAMINE (That'll be Part 2). Conservative traders should watch resistance at 1.13835, with invalidation of bearish outlook above 1.16164.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 10/12/2024Yesterday, we got a trading setup on EURUSD. This came after a week of little activity with the Judas Swing strategy, where we executed just one trade. Fortunately, that trade turned out to be a winner, yielding a 2% gain to conclude the week. It felt great to finally get some activity with the strategy earlier in the week with EURUSD, and we plan to guide you through the trading day's events. We aim to arrive at our trading desk five minutes before the trading session starts (08:30 EST), to ensure we're fully prepared for the session. The session has finally begun, and a crucial aspect of this strategy is establishing a trading bias for the session. This involves waiting for a sweep of liquidity at either the high or low of the trading zone. Typically, a sweep of liquidity occurs a few minutes into the session; however, this time it was delayed. Despite this, we didn't rush into any trades. Instead, we waited patiently and eventually got a sweep of liquidity on the sell side, indicating that in this session, we should be on the lookout for potential buying opportunities. Once the liquidity sweep requirement is complete, the next step is a break of structure to the buy side to confirm our bias for the session. Keep in mind, all this needs to occur before 11:00 EST. Once the break of structure to the buy side occurred, it was followed by a retrace into the Fair Value Gap formed by the subsequent candle, indicating that all the criteria on our entry checklist were satisfied. We executed our trade after meeting all our criteria. Initially, we saw profits for the first five minutes, but then a large bearish marubozu candle appeared, plunging us into a significant drawdown. This exemplifies why we avoid tight stop losses and maintain a minimum stop loss requirement of 10 pips. Upon reviewing the position again, we noticed that the trade had begun to move in our favor. However, since the objective has not yet been met, we must wait for one of two outcomes: either our stop loss is triggered or our take profit is reached Our patience finally paid off when our trade, where we risked just 1% of our capital, yielded a rewarding 2% return. This trade was a testament to the importance of sticking to your trading plan and waiting for the right setup, rather than chasing trades out of impatience
by CleoFinance
EURUSD Trade New York SessionEURUSD Trade New York Session Price had a very dramatic CPI. CPI had Price both drop and wicked up through the noted FVG. Dust settles price rallies to take the clean equal highs and I suspected for price to come and clear the second equal highs, it doesn't. Analysis can best be seen on 1 min chart 8:48 Price drops displacing price and retraces. I suspected Price would break down to the clean equal lows target. Price is heavy and does not come up into the 8:48 FVG it created. Still shy and cautious waiting for more details. 8:55 comes back up but cant get up into the FVG and swings back and forth around the midnight opening. Price is in a premium and breaks structure at 9:10 I was watching on a higher timeframe 5 min, when I saw price turn around I should have gone to the 1 min and would have seen the 3 other entries that were around the midnight opening price. All mistakes are great mistakes. Glad I got in and got out at my first target even though my analysis was telling me it would go lower. Next learn how to take partials. This is my set up I am hunting for and the more i see it the better I will get.
Short
by LParnell
EURUSD 2 macroEURUSD 2 macro Asia rallies to the buy side taking 2 sets of clean equal highs and reaches for the 50% of FVG. Classic ICT short set up. Starts to break down comes up again with displacement creating a FVG and drops to take clean equal lows and a small inefficiency. Price is choppy consolidation at the midnight opening price leading into London. 2 macro what i learned 1:45 displaces down creating a FVG 1:51 starts to rally above the opening price coming into the FVG that could be an IFVG? 2 candle 5 pips above price takes the recent clean equal highs formed Price burst through the IFVG to the down side I had a sell at the midnight price suspecting from my morning analysis that price would swing up to drop to the equal lows Celebrate that you got in a 2 and now work on trusting yourself.
Short
by LParnell
EURUSD Wave Analysis 11 December 2024 - EURUSD reversed from resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.0450 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down with the long-legged Doji from the resistance area between the upper daily Bollinger Band, pivotal resistance level 1.0610 (former multi-month support from April) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the start of November. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor downward impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance area and the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0450 (low of the earlier minor correction b).
Short
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD What Next? BUY! My dear subscribers, EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.0513 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.0538 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD H1 11/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0525/1.0530 , Reversal 1.054Multi-Timeframe Analysis D1 (Daily Chart) Trend: Strong bearish bias, with price below the 200 SMA and Ichimoku cloud. Indicators: RSI at 40 and MACD signaling downside momentum. Support/Resistance: Support: 1.0490 and 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0540 and 1.0570. H4 (4-Hour Chart) Trend: Downtrend continues, with price consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band. Indicators: Stochastic is in the oversold zone (17.87), indicating potential short-term pullback. MACD suggests bearish momentum but losing strength. Support/Resistance: Support: 1.0495 and 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0530 and 1.0550. H1 (Hourly Chart) Trend: Price is below all major moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish structure. Indicators: RSI at 40, indicating continued bearish bias but with room for a pullback. Stochastic is oversold (23.76) and turning up, suggesting a potential retracement. ATR (14) at 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility. Key Levels: Support: 1.0495, followed by 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0530 and 1.0545. M30 (30-Minute Chart) Trend: Intraday bearish trend intact, with consolidation near key support levels. Indicators: MACD turning slightly neutral. Stochastic oversold (28.47), indicating potential for minor correction. Revised Trade Plan for EUR/USD (H1) Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation After Pullback Rationale: EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, and any pullback toward 1.0530–1.0540 provides an optimal sell opportunity. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0525–1.0530 (on a retracement to resistance). Stop-Loss: 1.0555 (above the intraday resistance). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0495 (current support). TP2: 1.0450 (next key support). Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 2: Aggressive Breakout Short Rationale: A clean break below 1.0495 would confirm bearish continuation, targeting lower levels. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0490 (on a confirmed breakout). Stop-Loss: 1.0515 (above the breakout level). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0470. TP2: 1.0450. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping on Reversal Rationale: If price breaks above 1.0535, it may trigger short-term buy momentum, targeting a retracement to the next resistance. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0540. Stop-Loss: 1.0525. Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0555. TP2: 1.0570. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5. Key Considerations News Impact: Watch for the 13:30 GMT US inflation data release, which could spike volatility. Avoid placing trades right before the release. Correlated Instruments: DXY: A rise above 106.75 may further pressure EUR/USD. Treasury Yields: A spike in yields could add USD strength.
Short
by napoleon182
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance. Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%. Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%. The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and rate cuts Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and Upcoming Fed Decision The U.S. dollar dropped as the latest polls indicate no clear leader in the presidential race, reducing bets on a Trump victory. Treasury futures rose, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid the uncertainty. Citigroup strategists suggest that a Trump victory could see the dollar rally by 3%, while a Harris victory could result in a 2% decline. This highlights the significant impact the election outcome could have on the USD. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, adding to market volatility already heightened by the election. Traders are keeping a close eye on early results from swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania for insights into the potential election outcome and its implications for the financial markets. Source: Information derived from Bloomberg
by Eleazarahmath