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USDCNH trade ideas

USDCNH = BUY SETUP (SWING TRADE)We have an impulse correction and a possible continuation to the upside. Also on the daily time frame if we look left we can see a structural level on the market in which we have a support and multiple times turned resistance, and since the market has broken up above and turned support and since the market has now returned back to the structure level to retest we can see a continuation for long. So the setup is done on the 4H, we can see the environment is still bearish MACD is still below the 0 and EMAs are cut for short, so only if the EMAs will cut for long and the MACD will break above the 0, after the break and shift on the retest of the previous resistance turns support here is when we can look for the long. Stop loss is below the low and the take profit is on the -0.272 of the Fibonacci taken on the daily retracement. ENTRY: 6.46892 TP: 6.50639 SL: 6.45804 BE + SWAP + COMMS > Only BE if the market created and impulse and correction
Long
by fx_shifter
USDCNH Facing Bearish Pressure | 9th June 2021USDCNH broke below ascending trendline support (now resistance). Price has also tested and pulledback below this trendline resistance. A further drop below our entry and Key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 6.40076, with a possible downside target at 6.37686 could be possible. Our take profit at 6.37686 is also in line with a Fibonacci confluence zone where we have -27.20% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week The price moved against expectation as it continues to find lower lows in the last one month (you might want to see the link below for reference purposes); As part of China’s move to create awareness of its digital Yuan, authorities in Shanghai is planning to distribute $3 million worth of the central bank-issued currency among residents of Shanghai in the form of a lottery. Coupled with the appearance of a Descending Channel, this development appears to give a level of cynosure for investors as I anticipate a risk of further decline for the USDCNH pair in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Breakdown | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) Observation: i. Since late March 2021, the price has been caught up within a Descending channel as the Greenback experiences risk of further decline in the nearest future. ii. As represented on the chart, connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals a downward trend that appears to hold following the Breakdown and retest of Y6.41000. iii. Below the Key level @ Y6.39600 remains a yardstick for entry opportunity as I look forward to a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (with the possibility of a 78.6%) of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Y6.32000 area. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 4 to 8 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
Market Insight: Maintaining a forecast of 6.30 by end 2021 - INGING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients. Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the USDCNY fixing this morning to 6.3681 from last Friday's 6.3858. Will this work? We believe that this increase in foreign deposit reserves will help to deter speculators and shield the yuan from further rapid appreciation unless those speculators believe that the yuan wil appreciate by more than 2% points from now even after the PBoC has sent this strong signal. In short, this should be enough to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. But it may not stop it. Is this a backward move on exchange rate liberalisation? This sounds a bit like a retrograde step to the PBoC's ambitions on exchange rate liberalisation. But it isn't really. Looking at the fixing, which continued this morning to follow overnight developments of the dollar index, it looks as if the PBoC still wants to stick to the idea of exchange rate liberalisation. But this is difficult to achieve if the PBoC doesn't like speculators occasionally taking charge of the direction and pace of the yuan FX market. A market consists of FX users and investors, including speculators. We interpret the foreign deposit reserves as a tool to deter speculation, not yuan users (such as exporters and importers). And this type of administrative measure will continue to be used repeatedly when yuan moves look to be dominated too much by speculators. We are maintaining our USDCNY forecast at 6.30 for the end of 2021.
by thunderpips