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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD - UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HUSDCAD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Currently, prices are trading below the resistance trend line and the turning level at 1.361. This sets the stage by identifying that the price is under a key resistance line and turning level, specifically at the 1.361 level. The resistance line acts as a ceiling preventing further upward movement. As long as trading remains below this level, a decline is expected, potentially reaching 1.354 and 1.350. Here, you're forecasting a possible downward trend. If prices don't break through 1.361, the expectation is for them to move lower, first targeting 1.354, and possibly continuing to 1.350. These levels are likely key support level where the price could find temporary stability. However, breaking this level would indicate a rise toward 1.370. This section shifts the focus to an alternative outcome. If the price breaches the 1.361 resistance, it would signal the start of an upward movement, aiming for the next key level at 1.370. To confirm an uptrend, it is necessary to break through this level, which would then target the next level at 1.374. Finally, you're stating that for a true and sustained uptrend to be confirmed, the price must break through 1.370. Once this happens, the price is expected to head towards the next resistance level at 1.374. UPWARD TARGET : 1.370 , 1.374. DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.354 , 1.350.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
USDCAD limited by the 200dma & 1.3610 … the week of 16 Sep, 2024About a month ago, this pair broke below the 1.3610 level and since then has been unable to overcome it despite 7 attempts. The 200 dma has resisted bullish efforts and my bearish bias is also supported by Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I will be on the lookout for bearish evidence on lower time frames such as H4 and H1, see how such price action relates to the 20 sma before committing to a trade. If, however, a strong move to the up side forms, that would negate my analysis. This is not a trade recommendation. You should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soro s
Short
by Trading_Vista
Head & ShouldersHello traders this is my head and shoulders back test I usually back test my strategies every 3-6 months because they usually change and I often adjust them. This back test is based on Major pairs only from 2023-2024 For my head and shoulders strategy to be effective I will be implementing a few rules: For TP Hit I will measure if the head and shoulders went as far as the height from the right shoulder to the neck. I will not be including trades such as these .where the breakout was due to high impact news. I will only be taking head and shoulders with a horizontal neckline only I will be focusing on 1h tf The ones I wouldn’t take in real trading: Here are some of the trades that I wouldn’t take in my real trading, some of these trades have a tilted neckline while some have a wrong shoulder to head ratio. Fake out: TP hit: SL HIT: Conclusion: Head and shoulders when paired with trend lines: When I paired my head and shoulder with trend line breakout it has proven to be very powerful. Ranging markets: This strategy is a reversal strategy so it doesn’t work well when we have ranging markets even the head and shoulders indicator is having trouble identifying head and shoulders. The strategy does not perform well in NZDUSD Because it ranges quite a lot which indicates that this strategy can not be used on weak forex pairs such as EURGBP. The minimum number of trades considered to be a good back test can be 100 to 200 trades my back test is way below the recommended mark. There are certain key points to note: I used data from 2023 to 2024 only I back tested only Major forex pairs I used only Head and shoulders that broke not the ones that failed to even breakout eg: approximate win rate 58%
by Linkhive001
Canadian CPI Inflation Slows to 2.0% in AugustInflationary pressures in Canada continued to subside in August, underpinning the possibility of more policy easing this year. According to a report released by Statistics Canada (StatCan) earlier today, headline CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) cooled to +2.0% in August (YoY), down from +2.5% in July and south of economists’ expectations of +2.1%. This marks the first time since February 2021 that the headline inflation rate has hit the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2.0% inflation target and highlights the eighth consecutive month that headline inflation has remained within the central bank’s inflation band of 1-3%. StatCan noted that the deceleration in inflation for August was ‘due, in part, to lower gasoline prices, due to a combination of lower prices and a base-year effect’. Headline CPI inflation dropped -0.2% between July and August, defying the market’s median estimate of a flat reading and below the +0.4% previous print. The BoC’s preferred measures of inflation also continued to slow in August. The CPI Median rose +2.3% from +2.4% in July (consensus: +2.2%), while the CPI Trim measure rose +2.4% from +2.7% in July (consensus: +2.5%). Therefore, the average pace of inflation between these two measures is +2.35%, down from +2.55 in July. Additionally, the CPI Common measure was lower in August at +2.0%, down from +2.2% in July. 25 or 50? The BoC next meets on 23 October, where markets are fully pricing in the possibility of another rate cut. Following the release of inflation data, OIS traders (Overnight Index Swaps) are pricing in 39 basis points of cuts for next month’s meeting, with 75 basis points of easing for the year. At current levels, whether the BoC opts for a 25 or 50 basis point reduction in October is essentially a coin toss. The central bank cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in September and signalled that further rate cuts are on the table. The latest rate cut brought the Overnight Rate to 4.25%. USD/CAD Resistance Longer-term price action has remained rangebound between monthly support at C$1.3244 and resistance coming in from C$1.3818 since late 2022. As you can see from the monthly chart, price faded range resistance in August, and follow-through downside has so far been limited. Areas of support and resistance beyond the current range reside at C$1.2975 and C$1.4066. Across the page on the daily chart, support entered the fray at C$1.3443 – some technical analysts will refer to this base as a Quasimodo support level. The reaction from the base was strong and eventually saw the currency pair shake hands with resistance at 1.3609, a level boasting strong historical significance and one which has proven to be a difficult barrier to overcome. However, having seen the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nudge back above its 50.00 centreline (positive momentum), a break higher could be on the cards, with buyers targeting neighbouring daily resistance at C$1.3661.
Long
by FPMarkets