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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD Bulls Eye 1.4140 Amid Momentum ShiftHello Traders, Take a moment to read my outlook on USDCAD, and share your thoughts Overview USDCAD is currently trading at 1.40623, showing bullish trends on both the H4 and H1 timeframes. However, the bullish momentum on the H4 appears to be weakening, suggesting the uptrend may be nearing a potential reversal zone. Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by increased volatility, but momentum on the H1 timeframe has noticeably decreased, signaling reduced upward strength. Idea The pair is expected to continue its rise toward the 1.4140 price region, a key resistance level with the potential to halt further upward movement and trigger a bearish reversal. Price action is currently rejecting off the H1 order block, which could act as a short-term support level. I will monitor the 1.39797 level closely, as a break below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, signaling a potential shift in market structure. Conversely, a sustained move above the 1.4140 resistance would indicate renewed bullish momentum and the possibility of further gains. Conclusion This outlook suggests further upside potential toward 1.4140 which is about 80pips move. However, a clear break below 1.39797 would invalidate this idea, and could provide opportunities for short positions. Cheers and happy trading!
Long
by Samuel124
1
USD/CAD AnalysisThe USD/CAD pair has been trading within an ascending channel but recently broke out, reaching a significant resistance level from March 2020. This resistance appears to have halted the bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of a correction in the coming sessions. 💡 Key Observations: 1️⃣ The price broke above the ascending channel but is struggling to maintain momentum at the resistance level. 2️⃣ Historical resistance from March 2020 is likely to act as a strong barrier for further upward movement. 3️⃣ Signs of weakness and loss of momentum indicate a potential downward correction. 🔻 Potential Target Zones for Correction: First Target: 1.429 Second Target: 1.421 Longer-term Target: 1.408
Short
by Charts_M7M
Shorting USD/CAD: Because Even the Loonie Deserves to Fly High!Based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, there are several reasons that could justify a short position on the USDCAD pair from 1.5x with a target of 1.365. 1. Interest Rate Differentials The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada may have diverging stances on interest rates. If the Bank of Canada is projected to raise interest rates or the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower them, this could lead to a depreciation of the USDCAD pair. 2. Economic Indicators Economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment can influence the exchange rate. If the Canadian economy is expected to outperform the US economy, this could lead to a depreciation of the USDCAD pair. 3. Commodity Prices Canada is a significant exporter of commodities, particularly oil. If oil prices are expected to rise, this could lead to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar and a depreciation of the USDCAD pair. 4. Political Risks Political events and policy changes can influence exchange rates. If there are political risks in the US that are expected to negatively impact the US economy or if there are positive political developments in Canada, this could lead to a depreciation of the USDCAD pair. 5. Market Sentiment Market sentiment can influence exchange rates. If traders are bearish on the US dollar or bullish on the Canadian dollar, this could lead to a depreciation of the USDCAD pair. 6. Technical Analysis The USDCAD pair may be at a key resistance level at 1.5x, and a reversal pattern may be forming. If the pair breaks below this level, it could signal a move towards 1.365. Please note that these are potential reasons and the actual movement of the USDCAD pair will depend on a variety of factors. It's important to conduct thorough research and consider the potential risks before making a trading decision.
Short
by FtradeFXArabic
Bearish drop?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop from this level to the 61.8% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 1.4244 1st Support: 1.4177 1st Resistance: 1.4288 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
USDCAD: One of the Most Geopolitical-Based Currency PairsHello Traders, The Trump presidency may bring three significant changes to the financial world: We might see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. We might see more support for Israel against Iran. We might see increased tariffs on US imports. All three changes could affect the pair in both directions, making them a double-edged sword for USDCAD. Trump previously had good relations with Putin and is known for his anti-interventionism under his America First policy. Aid to Ukraine may decrease, which I am not in favor of, as Ukraine represents the frontline of democracy in the war against Putin. Abandoning Ukraine could encourage other dictators, like China, to attack other countries. Recently, Zelensky accepted the idea of temporarily giving up some territories to Russia if Russia allows NATO's presence in Ukraine, a negotiation he previously refused before Trump won the election. A peace agreement or long-term ceasefire between Putin and Ukraine may strengthen the USD, as the world would feel safer, attracting more capital to the growing US economy. However, the strength of the USD against the EUR, the 2nd most powerful currency in the forex market, could also attract more capital to Euro. The Abraham Accords were one of Trump's most successful initiatives. The proxy war between Israel and Iran escalated after the October 7 massacre, with Iran losing most of its proxies. Iran's missile capabilities have been tested and are now recognized as a weak, not-dangerous ability. Previously, Iran had three cards to play against Israel and the West: proxies, missiles, and nuclear capabilities. Now, it only has nuclear activities. Many are waiting for Israel to strike Iran's suspicious nuclear facilities. Such an attack could significantly impact the markets, particularly the CAD. There are two possible scenarios: if Iran does not retaliate due to its inability to do so, the USD would strengthen as more capital flows in. Conversely, if Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz for a few days, oil prices would rise significantly, prompting U.S. and Western intervention, leading to a prolonged conflict that would drive oil prices higher. Since Canada depends on oil and energy, any increase in prices would boost the CAD. Regarding tariffs, imposing them may weaken the CAD, but as Trudeau stated, Americans “are beginning to wake up to the reality that tariffs on everything from Canada would make life a lot more expensive.” Canada would retaliate, and if the eurozone follows suit, the U.S. economy could be negatively affected. As forex traders, we know how powerful and important the U.S. is, but we also recognize that other economies have their strengths, and the world is not solely defined by the U.S. For instance, an official in Ontario's government mentioned that they would restrict electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota if President-elect Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on all Canadian products. So, consider all three factors if you plan to invest long-term in either currency. For the shorter term, we should also keep these developments in mind, as they could happen at any moment. Any night, Israeli bombers could fly over Syria and Iran to target Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to a substantial gain in CAD value. Right now, from a technical perspective: any retracement to the green box at 1.4190 could present an opportunity to increase the price of the pair. Conversely, a break below the channel and 1.41610 would signal a chance for more bearish moves. Sources for US Tariffs on Canada: apnews.com apnews.com
Long
by AliSignals
USDCAD: HTF DT OPPORTUNITYThis is an UPDATE to the previous analysis. Read the notes from the previous analysis (see link below) Due to yesterday's BIG NEWS regarding lower USD interest rates, PA on this pair spiked to the upper Resistance (distal) before showing signs of the DT we anticipated earlier. HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND Pivot High @ 1.46685 Resistance, Major @ 1.4463 Resistance, Major @ 1.4209 SLO2 @ 1.4536 ⏳ SSO1 @ 1.4270 ⏳ SLO1 @ 1.4188 📉 TP1 @ 1.3763 TP2 @ 1.3337 TP3 @ 1.3024 TP4 @ 1.2539 Support, Minor @ 1.33858 Support, Major @ 1.32522 BLO1 @ 1.2422 ⏳ BLO2 @ 1.2140 ⏳ Pivot Low @ 1.2007
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USDCAD Is Still BullishAfter the USDCAD had recently risen significantly, the exchange rate is now correcting. This healthy movement offers us the opportunity to enter a new long position in the bullish order block. The momentum in USDCAD is clearly pointing upwards in the medium to long term and retailer sentiment is decidedly bearish, which suggests a further bullish impulse. A bearish order block just below the recent highs would be a good price target for a long trade.
Long
by Ochlokrat
USD/CAD -Volume Spread AnalysisHere is a perfect example of Pushing Up through Supply. As shown, when up-trending markets experience the phenomenon created by Market Makers in which supply us introduced to the market. (Notice the Pivot Highs at 1.41942 and 1.41968 which are 4 pips apart) These levels of supply are known by the market makers and are used to lock in bullish traders. As the market moves against the locked in traders we notice Ultra High Volume (UHV) shows up. As we analyze the volume it suggests professional supply has entered the market and is confirmed by the following Wide Spread and Excessively UHV. This confirms the intention of the professionals to lock in bullish traders and create an over head supply zone. The following price movement has UHV as well but less than the previous bar and it also closes bullish but inside the larger UHV bar. Peculiar for a market that is doomed to fall to the abyss don't you think? Looking back to the previous 40 price bars we notice price held support above the level of the previous pivot low at 1.40926. The supply diminishes from this point as price creates a Lower High (LH) then a Higher Low (HL). We also notice the spread bodies of the bars leading to the pivot low at 1.41304 are smaller than any other downward push since the consolidation period on the 10th of December. This implies supply has diminished until we come back in contact with the supply created by the Market Makers. The UHV suggests supply is present. However, the next bar shows demand is also present and supply has suddenly diminished at the resistance as well. Prices then proceed to "Push up Through Supply" volume diminishes and prices rise through the supply which is termed and "ease of movement". This is an aggressive BUY SIGNAL which implies prices will not come back to retest the previous area of resistance turned support known as the backup to the edge of the creek. You have to be aggressive at these moments because prices will not return to the retest the structure as the handling maneuver is completed a as it leaves the re-accumulation area.
Education
by JHair20
USDCAD (4D) HIGH-RISK OPPORTUNITY, DTA Cautious Downtrend Retracement in an Upward Trend The USDCAD pair is currently experiencing a short-term retracement within a longer-term uptrend. While the overall trend remains bullish, it's important to exercise caution as we approach key support and resistance levels. Key Levels to Watch: Pivot High @ 1.4238 Resistance, Major @ 1.4209 SLO2 @ 1.4188 📉 SLO1 @ 1.4087 ⏳ TP1 @ 1.3894 TP2 @ 1.3733 TP3 @ 1.3614 TP4 @ 1.3430 BLO1 @ 1.3386 ⏳, minor support BLO2 @ 1.3279 ⏳, above major support Support, Major @ 1.3252 Pivot Low @ 1.32286 Trading Strategy: Consider buying or taking long positions below 1.3386. Be aware of the potential for a sharp reversal. Maintain a bullish bias. Be prepared to adjust your position based on market developments. Risk Management: A tight stop-loss order is crucial to limit potential losses. Manage your risk by avoiding over-leveraging your positions. Remember, technical analysis is a valuable tool, but it's not foolproof.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard