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Risk-on Risk-off Market Snapshot, 05/11/2024Election Jitters: U.S. Presidential Race Fuels Risk-Off Sentiment Amid Policy Uncertainty and Global Tensions The U.S. presidential election is significantly influencing risk-on and risk-off sentiment as investors brace for potential shifts in policy that could impact economic and market stability. With the election approaching, uncertainty around the potential outcomes and their implications for fiscal, trade, and regulatory policies is driving a more cautious, risk-off sentiment among market participants. In typical election cycles, markets tend to exhibit volatility as investors anticipate changes in the policy environment. For 2024, there is particular focus on key issues such as tax policy, technology regulation, healthcare, and foreign policy—all of which could have far-reaching impacts on sectors like tech, healthcare, energy, and financial services. Market participants are also considering the candidates' approaches to fiscal stimulus, which may affect economic growth projections and thus influence the overall risk environment. Additionally, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing conflict in Ukraine are intensifying risk-off behavior. Investors are favoring safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and government bonds as they hedge against potential economic disruptions that might follow election results, especially if there are significant shifts in foreign policy. However, specific sectors may also show risk-on tendencies if the anticipated policy shifts favor growth or deregulation in areas like infrastructure, clean energy, or technology. For example, market segments aligned with clean energy could see optimism, while regulatory uncertainties may weigh on tech stocks. Overall, the looming U.S. election is adding a layer of risk-off sentiment as investors weigh the prospects of economic shifts in a complex global landscape. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AfreeBit
November Trading Competition Chart Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (SPX500USD 1D chart) In order to maintain the uptrend, it must rise above 5738.2 and be maintained. Since the StochRSI indicator is currently expected to create a double bottom, if the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold zone, it is highly likely to create a large uptrend. Accordingly, I think the 5738.2 point is a very important support and resistance point. - (XAUUSD 1D chart) BW(100) indicator is created at 2748.960, and HA-High indicator is created at 2734.472. Accordingly, the point of observation is whether it can receive support and rise around 2734.472-2748.960. - The fact that BW(100), HA-High indicators are created means that a high point section has been formed. Therefore, if it receives resistance from BW(100), HA-High indicators and falls, you should basically think that the decline is likely to continue until it meets BW(0), HA-Low indicators and respond accordingly. Therefore, whether there is support around 2734.472-2748.960 is important. - Since the StochRSI indicator appears to have entered the oversold zone, we need to check where it is located when it rises in the oversold zone and maintains the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA. - (XAGUSD 1D chart) The chart can be seen as already in the process of decline. However, since it is maintaining an upward channel, we need to keep in mind the possibility of creating a pull back pattern. Accordingly, the area around 3188144 is expected to be an important support and resistance zone. The HA-High indicator is created at the 32.99790 point, and the BW(100) indicator is created at the 34.86 point. Accordingly, there is a possibility that it will be restricted from breaking through the 3299790-34.86 zone upward. - (EURUSD 1D chart) I think the 1.08821 point is a very important section in the trend. I think it is likely to have difficulty turning into an upward trend until it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. Therefore, I think it would be advantageous to proceed with a trade after confirming support near 1.08821. - (WTICOUSD 1D chart) The oil chart is in a reverse arrangement. Accordingly, I think it would be advantageous to trade with a sell (SHORT) position. It is currently rising above 71.6167 and rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. In order to maintain this rise, it needs to be maintained around 71.955. - HA-Low, HA-High indicators are indicators created to trade using the Heikin-Ashi chart. The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that a low point range has been formed. Therefore, if it is supported near HA-Low and rises, you should basically think of a response plan by thinking that it will continue to rise until it meets the HA-High indicator. The HA-Low or HA-HIgh indicators are designed to display box ranges differently from other indicators. Therefore, in order to escape the low point range formed by the HA-Low indicator, it must rise above the upper point of the HA-Low indicator box. Therefore, it can be said that it has escaped the low point range if it rises and is maintained above the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (72.606). - StochRSI indicator is not a universal indicator, but basically - When the StochRSI indicator is above the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to sell, - When it is below the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to buy. From that perspective, I think the current rise is more likely to be a rebound rather than a rise. - (BTCUSD 1D chart) The important support and resistance areas from the current price position are as follows: - 71288.90-72322.91 - 68343.64-69795.79 - 65910.71 The three areas above are important support and resistance areas. - As explained on the oil chart, since the StochRSI indicator is below the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to buy. Therefore, if you are trading for the first time, you can trade depending on whether there is support near 68343.64. However, since the current trend is an upward trend, if you trade with a sell (SHORT) position, you need to respond quickly and briefly. - (ETHUSD 1D chart) ETH is currently moving sideways in the box section. Therefore, the trend is expected to be determined depending on which direction it deviates from the 2272.88-2707.12 section. Therefore, you should think about trading within the box section and create a response plan. Then, when it deviates from the box section, you should switch to a trading strategy to eat the trend. - Have a good time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
OANDA:SPX500USD
by readCrypto
S&P 500: Key Levels to Watch as Election NearsWith the U.S. election right around the corner, the markets are primed for a week of intense action. As traders settle in for what could be a wild ride, we're zeroing in on the S&P 500’s most important support and resistance zones. Anticipated Surge in Volatility and Volume As election day arrives, expect a surge in both volatility and volume, especially in bonds and currency markets. Last Thursday’s market sell-off set the tone, with heightened swings likely to spill over from futures into the open markets by mid-week. Adding fuel to the fire, the Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday could be another volatility catalyst, particularly if the central bank makes a surprise move on rates. Right now, option data on the S&P 500 suggests that the market is bracing for a potential swing of over 2%, indicating expectations of a lively week. Whilst volatility is the life blood of short-term trading, only the prepared are likely to benefit as wild swings tend to spark panic among those without a plan. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the key levels to watch on the S&P 500… Key Levels to Watch on the S&P 500 On the technical front, the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend has taken a breather, and last Thursday’s drop brought the index back to a critical area: the 50-day moving average (MA). This level, which aligns with the July swing highs, has held up well so far, and it’s a key line of support that many traders are eyeing as we move into the election. If this support gives way, the next stop is the September lows near the 200-day moving average—a level that often serves as a guardrail for the broader trend. For resistance, we’re watching the top of Thursday’s gap as the first challenge for any bounce attempt. Above that, the trend highs present another barrier, where the bulls will need solid momentum to push through. These levels provide a solid framework to navigate the week ahead, where a breakout or breakdown will likely signal a directional shift in the broader market sentiment. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Using Anchored VWAP to Gauge Market Control When it comes to analysing who’s in control of the market—bulls or bears—anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is one of our go-to tools. Here’s how we use it: by anchoring a VWAP to the recent highs, we get a read on where sellers are likely to assert pressure. This essentially serves as a ceiling, marking where bearish momentum could reassert itself. On the flip side, anchoring VWAP to recent lows shows us where the buyers are holding their ground, creating a critical support point. These anchored VWAP levels act as dynamic markers of control, giving us a pulse on the ongoing battle between bulls and bears. In a week like this, with election headlines swirling and technical levels tested, VWAP is an invaluable tool to track whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand at any given moment. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
S&P500 / Bearish Pressure Builds: Key Support Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643. Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone. Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850. Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5748 Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824 Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get. The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now): That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern. ** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle ** Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle ** The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. ** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle ** With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032! ** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels ** What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis. As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. ** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? ** It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc). It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond. ** Conclusion ** In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
28
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,769.26 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,804.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 5,727.17 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds. Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX500USD Will Go Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,736.0. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,643.6 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
Election Volatility Shakes Up US MarketsS&P 500 ● The index retreated from its all-time high of 5,880, initiating a downward trend. ● A breakdown below the Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed. ● Key support levels to watch: ➖ Immediate support: 5,670 ➖ Strong support: 5,400 Nasdaq Composite ● The index has hit an all-time high near the 18,750 level before beginning to retreat. ● After breaking through the trendline support, the index is currently hovering slightly above the next immediate support level. ● If it dips below this support, we could see a significant drop, potentially driving the index down to the 16,670 level. **This market volatility is consistent with historical trends during US presidential election years. The 2024 election is particularly unpredictable due to conflicting economic indicators and potential delays in results.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital