Weekly Price PredictionProjected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $84.50 (Max). This projection is based on a combination of technical indicators and historical price action.
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
Last week witnessed a downside breakout from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line. Despite this, the decline has not been rapid, suggesting a potential stabilisation and support in the current price region.
Volume Profile Analysis:
Utilising a Fixed Range Volume Profile from the trough at the end of June to the peak at the end of September provides crucial insights.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
The MACD at the top of the chart is displaying a potential crossover, suggesting upward movement. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart is showing signs of a bullish crossover.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the current price level has solid support from the Bottom HVM and technical indicators like MACD and Stochastic RSI are signalling potential upward movement, caution is warranted. The presence of the blue resistance line suggests a potential obstacle. Traders should monitor this level closely, and risk management strategies should be implemented. The projected price range is between the Bottom High Volume Node and the Point of Control.
