Bearish Divergence on the US10 Year YieldIf we can see tthis begin to come down from here we will see stock continue up and the dollar return down.
US10Y trade ideas
US 10y bondssetup displaying an uptrend but trying to form a double top reversal pattern for short selling opportunities
bond the key for an economic crisisWhen short-term bonds are priced like long-term bonds, the chance of an economic crisis increases
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ?
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
Yield cruve 10-2 vs BTCAn inverted yield curve instead slopes downward and means that short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Such a yield curve corresponds to periods of economic recession, where investors expect yields on longer-maturity bonds to become even lower in the future.
Moreover, in an economic downturn, investors seeking safe investments tend to purchase these longer-dated bonds over short-dated bonds, bidding up the price of longer bonds driving down their yield.
US10y-US2y Compare with BTCDear friends
The difference between the returns of 10-year and 2-year bonds and the lower the value of these two charts, the slope of the reduction curve (Flat) and vice versa, the more we grow in these two charts, the slope of the curve has increased (Steep).
I compared the behavior of this chart to Bitcoin.
American financial and economic data.
US Govt. Bonds Bearish Butterfly IdeaPretty straight forward... I think there is a Bearish Butterfly harmonic. Another bearish sign is the TD sequential previously hitting a Green 8 & 9, Plus confirmed Bearish Monthly Divergence. It has to be said though the price action did not give two _____ about that divergence and there is 12 days left but that's like half a month it could manifest along with the TD sequential saying there is market exhaustion and come down. Won't be the first time I have seen price action show 0 intention of completing a "Market structure" especially when being this defiant with the RSI.
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame.
Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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-Vik
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The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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US10Y at critical levelBig Fed meeting next week. Key chart to watch is the US10Y. Rising yields + strong USD have damaged risk sentiment. US10Y is now testing June highs. Path of least resistance is higher, but if it reverses sharply here, may bring a double top into play.
Wave Plot...So this appears to be in an extended wave 3 and probably should put a top in over the coming weeks/soon - Also not all moves have to complete in 5 waves so there is a chance that our next top can be the end of this uptrend - I have added a likely area where I think price corrects to once the top of wave 3 is in ( it will most likely be .328 fib of wave 2-3 measured).
Treaasury 10Y Yield will drift higher to 3.91%<4.15%The chart takes a view of the 10Y Treasury Yield on a month time scale. As anyone could understand the Yield compression trend has probably tested the lowest Yield possible in Q2 2020, which will see a reversal and a secular shift in trend with higher real yields going forward with higher sustained inflation.
In this instance only by the wider chart technical, it's possible to see how the whole Fibonacci retracement provides the 23.6 retracement level matching the 4.15% Yield, meanwhile, the 3.91% Yield area becomes a technical important area.
DESCENDING CHANNEL - Range Trading StrategyHello my Fellow TraderZ,
Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL.
This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy.
Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES, but Higher Time Frames are more reliable.
You see, to draw any Trendline we need minimum 2/3 touch points.
Whenever the price touches the Trendline, never open any Trade in RUSH, wait, see the kind of candles forming at Touch Points (at LOWER TL = BULLISH PA, at UPPER TL = BEARISH PA). PA = Price Action. This should be coupled with the VOLUME.
Notice the S/R areas, where price gives multiple hits before bounce or rejection. This will give you extra boost as these horizontal S/R are more reliable than Dynamic S/R. Also these areas could be your Pivots to make ENTRY(incase price doesn't hit the channel Trendlines) or TP Targets.
Look at the Percentage(%) wise gains simply following the channel(BUY THE LOW, SELL THE HIGH). Well I've just mentioned the BUYS, you can add the short positions also.
Until the price is in channel you can take Multiple Trades both LONGing and SHORTing the market, unless the channel Breaks. This is the beauty of Range Trading. Similarly you can trade ASCENDING CHANNEL/WEDGES as well.
NOTE : PRICE ACTION is majorly important in the Game of Trading.
If you like this content, kindly give a FOLLOW & BOOST to me. Also COMMENT to bring more such #educational contents.
Sorry if its a bit Lengthy post.
Happy Trading . CHEERS!!!
10 year yield revisits June highWith worries about inflation and the strong dollar, long bonds have been selling off in recent weeks leading to hitting the recent highs in 10 year yield this week. This chart shows some potential reversal clues. 1. The recent high has not been breached. 2. There is divergence between the two highs on the RSI indicating possible loss of momentum. 3. The overall chart pattern looks like an ascending broadening wedge which can be a bearish pattern. If the resistance line here does get breached in the near future I would then turn very bearish on bonds.
US10Y - 41 year bond bull market comes to an end. US10Y - 41 year bond bull market comes to an end. US10Y yields heading much much higher.
US 10- year. Head and ShoulderCan we get the US10-year to break here. Seeing some macro analyzer talking about breaking down. Not going higher then previous top on 15th of June 2022 at 3,497
Could this Head and Shoulder be it?
+ Head and Shoulder
+ Macro View
10 year yield losing momentumThis chart shows the 10 year yield is losing momentum and currently moving sideways. I would think a more likely next move would be downwards particularly if CPI comes down soon.
Close to falling to 0The US bond yield is expected to drop to close to 0% again soon. I don't know what will happen next, but it must be something bad in the United States. Maybe it's Biden's shocking scandal, maybe it's Biden's sudden death.
Double Top on 10yr Treasury YieldsDouble top on the hourly. Obviously bonds are negatively correlated to gold, so expect gold to be bullish intraday. Looking for a correction down to 3.250%
US10Y overbought compared to silverWill silver run from here?
It looks like US 10 year treasuries are overbought compared to silver and the reversal could come now.
The yield curve is turning around - implications?The yield curve seems to be turning around, in the 2006 - 2009 it meant that the Fed funds rate soon topped, that equities, inflation and treasury yields went down and unemployment went up.
Will it be the same this time?
US10Y Hello friends, I hope you are well
I think it's time for the chart to move down a bit
I expect the numbers to be 2.60
Topping process in US 10yr Treasury Bond Yield. We might a mid-term top in US 10yr Bond Yield, which means stocks will have a rally soon.
10 year testing 3.30%The 10 years is breaking out. Putting pressure on tech and growth again . A move up to 3.50 is possible.
