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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
2
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown. Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!
TVC:US10Y
by AtareumFX
US10Y - US03MThis is another thing that is getting everyone EXCITED. It is going to invert soon. Once that happen, as you can see in the past, the Fed will PIVOT. Analysis also indicated that the MOVE Index shown previously will hit a new low the same time this 10y03m inverts. THE FED TYPICALLY CUTS RATES ON AVERAGE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE MOVE REACHES BOTTOM. So do you think the Fed will Pivot??? All I can say is expect more volatility this coming weeks. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US10Y
by i_am_siew
Next Recession ProjectionDescription The purpose of this idea is, based on past recessions, to try to predict when the next one could occur. Many factors could influence the future, but for now, we will focus on two of the most known indicators to predict a recession, the Yield Curve Inversion(ICV) and the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. Usually, when the ICV stays below 0 for a period of time, it indicates that a recession will occur in the future. As can be seen, this indicator predicted the last three recessions: '90, '00, and '08. The ’20 recession is excluded. Moreover, the SPX chart is added to reference where the markets could go. The projection is indicated with pink color. Yield Curve Inversion Period The ICV period ranges between the time when the ICV went below 0% and the time of the last touch to 0%. The average for the last three periods is 425D. We are in the current period for 183D. Usually, while the ICV is below 0%, there is a high chance that the FED will not increase the interest rate or even pivot, as seen in that #1 and #2 periods. #1: 455D #2: 304D #3: 516D Projected: #4: 426D SPX While the ICV is below 0%, the SPX moved on sideways or even upwards. US Interest Rate The average for the last three periods is 253D. #1: 120D #2: 214D #3: 426D Projected: #4: 243D Sahm Rule Recession Indicator According to this indicator, once the ICV touches the last time 0%, there is a delay until the effects of a recession are seen. The average for the last three periods is 244D. #1: 214D #2: 213D #3: 307D Projected: #4: 244D Conclusion A recession could start at the beginning of 2024. This would also coincide with the Presidential Cycle theory, where the third year of the US presidential mandate is more bullish than bearish, and the fourth year is more bearish than bullish. Please keep in mind that this is purely speculation based on previous data, and there are many other factors that can change the outcome.
TVC:US10Y
by EthanOS
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here? While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government. 
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” . Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles. Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward: U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊 What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates? Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy? Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
2
Are U.S. Yield Curve Inversions Signaling 2023 Recession? Looking at the Inverted Yield Curve Chart s of the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 3mo Treasury (US10Y - US03M), along with the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 2yr Treasury (US10Y - US02Y) — are yields signaling a topping process? Or, should we even higher yields into 23'? 4-Hour Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Daily Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Weekly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. SPY (SPX ES1!) 📊 Black Line: SPY Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. QQQ (NQ Nasdaq) 📊 Black Line: QQQ Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. DIA (Dow Jones Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA) 📊 Black Line: DIA Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. IWM (Russell 2000 Russell Small Caps RUT) 📊 Black Line: IWM Blue Line: US02Y Inverted Do you think that yields have reached their peak for this Federal Reserve tightening cycle here in late 22'? Or, will we see further rises in yields, putting more pressure on risk assets in the new year (23')? 👇🏼 Yield Curve Inversion Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury Curve vs. Asset (SPY QQQ DIA IWM) Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame): Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low. In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2
dollar and yields more upthe bullish momentum in dxy/ bearish momentum in eur slowed down significantly most recently, this probably correlates with "an end in sight" of the FEDs interest rate hikes. nevertheless there are more hikes to come and we havent seen US10y yield ranging around common interest rate targets around 5%. the countermovement in dxy, the bullish break of eu's downtrend have endured for quite some time now and its probable we see the former momentum take over again for quite some time. prepare for a bullish dollar and a bearish eur again. targets for this something around early FEB next year, till then most rate hikes should be completed or announced.
TVC:US10YLong
by MrKrft
1
OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022 Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸. Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history. Given the the index is currently trading below 100 , and possibly continuing to fall — what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery? Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process. Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): 📊🗝 Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: 🗓 data.oecd.org Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: 💡 data.oecd.org What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
US10Y : What the Market is saying.Next week will be important. FOMC will decide on rates. Powell had said that they will slow down the rate hike. It should be less than the previous 75bps. It can be 50 or 25bps. Whatever it is, do you think it matters? Well, a week before the FOMC decision, the MARKET had made a decision as well. Participants from around the world decided to drive yields lower. Last night was PANIC all around when yield went down BELOW 3.50%. This is foreseeable. In other words, the market is telling the Fed to go FLY KITE. Yield is already BELOW the EFFR. It is now more than 25bps below and once it goes 50bps below, then it brings a new meaning to what the market think/wants. Should the Fed insist on raising rates next week, this will only INCREASE the difference between the EFFR and actual yield. I am quite sure when the Fed raise rates next week, the market will double down and drive yields LOWER!!! In the past, I learned/believe the idiom "don't fight the Fed". I begin to doubt that now. Between now and FOMC next week, we would be hearing a lot of people giving their opinion and expertise about rate hike and how FX would react. Perhaps we should just ignore it. TALK IS CHEAP. Instead, I think it is best to follow the MONEY. The BOND market is BIG. Moving it requires a LOT OF EFFORT. I would listen to these EXPERTs running the bonds. If US10Y goes lower between now and FOMC, then we get the message from the MARKET, loud and clear. As I said before, The MARKET decides - The Fed Implements - We just follow. Lets get ready for PIVOT. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US10YShort
by i_am_siew
US10Y Critical point, break or hold on the Channel bottom!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame): Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low and it remains to be seen if the price reacts with a bounce. So far the move is much weaker than in August. In order to extend our selling we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (OCtober 21 High) Resistance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot