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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

10 year - 3 month yield curve has un-invertedThe past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme. In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with: *** 9/11 in 2001 *** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008 *** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term? Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
TVC:US10Y
by MrMomo177
1
US10Y - Elliott Wave AnalysisNot sure if this will happen but if it does, what does it mean ? 1. Impact on the US Dollar Strengthens the Dollar: Higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US Dollar. Rising yields often coincide with expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which further boosts the dollar. 2. Impact on Gold Negative for Gold: Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it doesn’t pay interest or dividends. When bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it less attractive. A rising US Dollar (driven by higher yields) also makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing global demand. Inflation Hedge Caveat: If rising yields are driven by inflation concerns, gold might still see some demand as a hedge, although its gains are often capped by rising yields. 3. Impact on the Stock Market General Impact: Rising yields increase borrowing costs for companies, reducing profits and potentially slowing down growth. Investors may rotate out of riskier assets like equities into safer Treasuries as yields become more attractive. Value vs. Growth: Value Stocks (e.g., banks, industrials): These may benefit from rising yields as they’re tied to economic growth and inflation expectations. Growth Stocks (e.g., tech companies): These tend to underperform because their valuations depend on future cash flows, which are discounted more heavily as yields rise. 4. Impact on Nasdaq (Tech Stocks) Negative Impact: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and tech stocks, which are sensitive to rising yields. Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making high-valuation tech stocks less appealing. Example: Periods of sharply rising yields often coincide with sell-offs in the Nasdaq. 5. Impact on Emerging Markets Outflows from Emerging Markets: Rising US yields can draw capital away from emerging markets as investors seek safer and higher-yielding US assets. This can weaken emerging market currencies and lead to tighter financial conditions in those economies. 6. Broader Market Sentiment Inflation Expectations: Rising yields driven by inflation concerns can create volatility across all asset classes. Fed Policy Sensitivity: Markets may react negatively if higher yields signal faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes. Historical Context Periods of sharply rising yields (e.g., during taper tantrums or inflation scares) have often led to stronger US dollars, weaker gold prices, and volatile stock markets, with the Nasdaq typically underperforming due to its tech-heavy composition.
TVC:US10YLong
by tigo2020
2
US 10Y TREASURY: inflation data aheadThe NFP data were in the center of market attention during the previous week. Analysts perceived posted data as “not too hot and not too cold”. Indeed, they were somewhere in between. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was higher from market estimate, but at the same time the unemployment rate reached 4,2%, a modest increase from 4,1% posted previously. Regardless of these mixed data, CME FedWatch Tool is showing 85% odds for a 25 bps rate cut in December. It should be taken into account that the US inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead, which will bring another layer to market expectations. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were traded to the downside during the previous week. For the second week in a row yields are gradually taking the down course. During the previous week, the 10Y benchmark was closed at the level of 4,17%. Next week, the US November inflation data will be posted, however, investors are currently positioning for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% Soon The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further. A very strong resistance zone is found near 4.16%, which was just broken. Additionally, overall market expectations regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut during the December meeting by 25 basis points or higher speculation may push the US10Y Government Bond Yield down even more. Let's see how the price unfolds during the coming days. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
5
US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
2024 review and where to from here for US10yRisk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on its way to close the year down roughly 4.5%. Meanwhile gold, a risk-off asset similar to US long-term treasuries, touched fresh all-time highs in October at $2,792 per ounce, up almost 30% year-to-date, and bitcoin (regardless whether you see it as a store of value, casino capitalism coin or a reserve asset) is up 125% year-to-date. The US 10-year yield was off to the races in the first four months of the year off the back of elevated inflation and modest US labour market growth which saw yields climb to highs of 4.7%. 10-year yields however turned at the end of April after US CPI topped out at 3.5% in April while the US unemployment rate continued to tick higher. I initially expected treasuries to continue their sell-off in the 2Q2024 and the US 10-year yield to break above the April high of 4.7% to complete another wave higher towards 5.0% however the forward guidance from the Fed coupled with their self-proclaimed victory against inflation ultimately pushed bids for bonds. Additionally, in June the ECB, BOE and other major central banks started front running the Fed with their rate cuts which strengthened the demand for treasuries and the dollar. The failed break above 4.5% in July coupled with the US unemployment rate topping out at a rate of 4.3% let the bond bulls loose. Yields continued to slide rapidly in the 3Q2024 until Japanic Monday on the 5th of August when the carry trade squeeze scorched short positions on the Japanese Yen after the BoJ’s surprise rate hike. Bond bulls managed to pull the yield down to a low of 3.6% before the Fed’s 50bps rate cut unexpectedly halted their run. Counter intuitively, longer-term yields have been rising since the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate. The Fed controls the short the short-end of the yield curve and with the Fed cutting rates coupled with the treasury sell-off, the market finally saw the normalization of the yield curve which has been inverted since July 2022! So, where to from here? The conclusion of the US election results saw treasury yields come off of their highs of around 4.5% but the current sell-off may still have legs if the bond vigilantes see another bout of inflation on the horizon. Additionally, the Fed has indicated that they are in no hurry to cut rates, opting for a more hawkish stance. The last non-farm payroll print will be released on Friday which may give some technical direction for yields heading into 2025. A break below the 200-day and 50-day MA around 4.2% will allow yields to drop back below 4% as we head into the New Year. My prediction is however for a re-test of the 2024 high at 4.7% early in 2025. A break above the 61.8% Fibo level of 4.3% will be an early indication of this move. In terms of technical indicators the RSI still has room to move higher and is close to oversold ranges while a cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA will signal a golden cross. Additionally the impulse wave following the Fed rate cut was very strong which signals to me that we are current seeing a bullish pullback in yields (bearish for bonds).
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts. At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December. The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Bonds, gold and nextwe see, every wave has shorter distance on the time 200ma and when ever price touches to 20 ma, it stars falling. We also see indicators has sell signal. How ever it still has LITTLE chance to see top side of channel quickly because momentum looks very wavey (green arrow). In this case i put my bet for bears. Because there is more reasons for me(yellow arrow). Also i want to notice that bond and gold has still correlation. NOT like before but still...If we look from this point gold has already started pricing this action. And sory guys for messy chart but all need i guess. And again sory for bad english.
TVC:US10YShort
by ardatufekci33917
1
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed is not in hurryPrevious week on the US Treasury bond market was marked with Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed is “not in a hurry to lower interest rates”. The note came from Feds perception of a strong US growth, in which sense, there is no need to cut interest rates too soon. This marked investors confidence, so 10Y Treasury yields continued their path toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 4,49% at one point, however, yields are ending the week at 4,44%. It will take some time until the markets digest the mentioned note from Fed Chair Powell. Now the question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at their December's meeting, or the rate cut will be postponed for next year. As per CME FedWatch Tool, the market is expecting with a 62% odds, that the Fed will cut in December by 25bps, while the rest is of opinion that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This digesting might bring some volatility back on the market, where yields might move between 4,5% and 4,4% during the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top. The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg. The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%. Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX