US10Y - Down To Go UpLast week was packed of rangebound action but Wednesday was the day that changed the market structure, shifting to the downside.
Expecting a relief rally upto 4.450%
US10Y trade ideas
Show me what you gotAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
🌕DOOMSDAY POST #236🌖 : THE GREAT RESET🌗MAKE OR BREAK🌒Okay lets break it down
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Technical analysis is a very important factor in prediction, despite the fact we like to downgrade and bruise the egos of traders who are overly reliant on it
of traders but lets put the jokes aside its all just data and interpreting it is the objective
history repeats itself simple
That said im going to be predicting the coming interest rates by predicting the TVC:US10Y (similar beta in trend) which will lead to strengthening TVC:DXY and large capital outflows from emerging economies experiencing foreign investment boom resulting in one big financial doo-doo aka RECESSION
i know nothing new under the sun and i 100% live by it, but with the amount of new variables to filter in i feel like this might be bigger than we anticipate or might just be brushed under the rug as if nothing happend after experiencing a big retracement of sorts in the markets but not big enough to lose our shxxs
the significance of the variables as a result of their magnitude is what concerns me
and their impact to the panic which i also suspect could work in the markets favour for some reason
WARS and the increasing division among allied nations
Market liquidity (more participants)
Social media and changing social standards (the consumers livelihoods)
US debt ceiling
US Real estate mortgage rates
Shift in power dominance (China)
LET ME KEEP IT SHORT 4 NOW
10Y yields - Elliott Wave count points to further downsideFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take yields to 3.50%, where wave C would be equal to A. This view is negated if we break above the aforementioned top of wave B.
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE data is coming From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing around 50% probability for this period and 63% probability for the rate cut in November. There are also some significant names on the market, who are publicly noting their expectation that the Fed most probably will not cut interest rates during this year. All this needs to be digested by the market, so some volatility might continue in the future period. This is especially relevant for the week ahead, for when US April PCE data are set for a release.
The 10Y benchmark was moving within a relatively short range during the previous week, between levels of 4.4% and 4.49%. It could be expected that the market will open on Monday around 4.5%, however, there is no indication that the yields can go higher from this level. Certainly, any surprises on PCE data might change it. At this moment, charts are more oriented toward downside, with higher probability that levels modestly below 4.45 could be tested for one more time.
10 Year US Bonds - Forecast for Months ahead from 26 May 2024My forecast for the months ahead from May 2024 and where we are going.
I'm expecting higher prices as long as we remain above the fair value gap.
US 10YR yields approaching symmetrical triangle formationKey Pivot to reach Apex which would result in Breakout is around US Election period.(Nov start)
1) Election Outcome favourable and CPI under control (fed cuts) - Yields drop further
2) Election outcome not favourable & CPI under Control - Yields to move up in medium term (above 4.467% level) & throwback to apex.
3) Election outcome favorable & CPI increases - Yields to move down in medium term below 4.467% & pullback to apex level.
regain sthchecked and hit trough a resistens, cant hold it, now cheking back a lower support, my idea with a little pozitive strenght. and a next month will be an upward movment to the nearest local high, what is the target area
Flip FlopAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
Daily Chart: ZB(30y Bonds) v US10y (10Y Yields)Please read descriptions in chart on analysis.
overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's data
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below):
Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up.
Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%.
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US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%.
The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time.
US 10 Year Bonds - Weekly Outlook - 20 May 2024 - Image
Daily chart of US 10 Year Bond
As per image, we have had two drives up, and are finding support here, so i would think there is at least one more drive up.
I'll be looking to get long as per my diagram shown, with SL and TP as shown.
US10Y - US02Y = Crash ZoneCrash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen.
I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom.
I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
Rates are breaking recent up trends, $TNXGood Morning Everyone!
The 2Yr Yield is retesting the recent support level, highlighted by arrows.
The 10Yr #yield is currently breaking the recent uptrend.
The yellow box was highlighted in the last post showing the WEAKNESS. However, forgot to speak on that yesterday (see profile for more info).
They cannot lower #interestrates... But they must, at least short term.
QT is done.
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for CPIMoves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be mentioned that a 30-year bonds auction was held the previous week, where strong demand for these bonds was evident. This demand was led by latest US unemployment data and investors expectations of rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, a demand for other maturities, including 10Y was left out of the focus.
In a week ahead a fresh US consumer price index data will be released, which might bring back some volatility on the Treasury yields. If the CPI is higher from market expectations, then yields might be pushed to the upper side, at least 4.55%, with low probability for 4.6%. However, if the CPI data show some relaxation, then the Treasury yields will continue their current path to the downside, and the level of 4.4%.
US10Y - Take Note Of 4.549%Lows of 4.420% was printed this trading week with minimal draws to buyside liquidity as yields had been trading within the weekly fair value gap.
Intraday-week market structure shift occurred during Thursdays US AM session before a minor retracement below consequent encroachment @ 4.458 ensued.
This leaves buyside ripe for the takings and I’ve got my eyes on 4.549%.
What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.
Huge potential implications from YIELD SPREADS (US10y-DE10y)Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher.
And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year.
BUT BUT BUT
The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see:
Weaker data
Lower yields (esp in the front end)
Curve "disinversion"
Weaker DXY
Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoin
US 10Y yield key support under pressureWe suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart.
This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all converging 4.44-4.33 (see daily chart) . While this could well hold the initial test, it is now under the spotlight, and should it give way we would allow a return visit to the 20-month ma at 4.03.
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US10 yield is "far" from long term "peak". 9/May/24US10Y > 8% what happen for those house/ car mortgage? What happen to #gold when big player have "guaranteed" in bank deposits? What happen to "healthy" bank's "stock"?..
