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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook. The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
12
US10Y - Elliott Wave AnalysisNot sure if this will happen but if it does, what does it mean ? 1. Impact on the US Dollar Strengthens the Dollar: Higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US Dollar. Rising yields often coincide with expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which further boosts the dollar. 2. Impact on Gold Negative for Gold: Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it doesn’t pay interest or dividends. When bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it less attractive. A rising US Dollar (driven by higher yields) also makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing global demand. Inflation Hedge Caveat: If rising yields are driven by inflation concerns, gold might still see some demand as a hedge, although its gains are often capped by rising yields. 3. Impact on the Stock Market General Impact: Rising yields increase borrowing costs for companies, reducing profits and potentially slowing down growth. Investors may rotate out of riskier assets like equities into safer Treasuries as yields become more attractive. Value vs. Growth: Value Stocks (e.g., banks, industrials): These may benefit from rising yields as they’re tied to economic growth and inflation expectations. Growth Stocks (e.g., tech companies): These tend to underperform because their valuations depend on future cash flows, which are discounted more heavily as yields rise. 4. Impact on Nasdaq (Tech Stocks) Negative Impact: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and tech stocks, which are sensitive to rising yields. Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making high-valuation tech stocks less appealing. Example: Periods of sharply rising yields often coincide with sell-offs in the Nasdaq. 5. Impact on Emerging Markets Outflows from Emerging Markets: Rising US yields can draw capital away from emerging markets as investors seek safer and higher-yielding US assets. This can weaken emerging market currencies and lead to tighter financial conditions in those economies. 6. Broader Market Sentiment Inflation Expectations: Rising yields driven by inflation concerns can create volatility across all asset classes. Fed Policy Sensitivity: Markets may react negatively if higher yields signal faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes. Historical Context Periods of sharply rising yields (e.g., during taper tantrums or inflation scares) have often led to stronger US dollars, weaker gold prices, and volatile stock markets, with the Nasdaq typically underperforming due to its tech-heavy composition.
TVC:US10YLong
by tigo2020
2
US 10Y TREASURY: expecting a 25 bps cutAs the Feds December meeting is approaching, so the market nervousness is increasing. During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark reverted back toward the 4,4% level, from 4,2% traded previously. Such a move was a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by additional 25 bps on December 18th. Also, ahead of the FOMC meeting, November inflation data was published, showing 0,4% increase in November, higher from market expectation of 0,2%. Increased volatility might be expected also during the first two days of the week ahead. The current 4,4% level for 10Y US Treasuries might be its highest level for the week. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently 97% odds that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. In this sense, some relaxation in yields might be expected during the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10 year - 3 month yield curve has un-invertedThe past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme. In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with: *** 9/11 in 2001 *** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008 *** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term? Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
TVC:US10Y
by MrMomo177
Market Alert: US 10Y YieldBack in mid-October, I mentioned keeping the US 10Y yield on your radar 📊 as it appeared to be forming a potential falling wedge pattern. This pattern, if completed, would indicate higher interest rates ahead. Well... the time is here! 👀 Should the market close above 4.42% today, this pattern will officially complete. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Ideally, a second close above this zone in the New Year would confirm the breakout. ✅ This suggests not only a retest of the 2023 high of 5.02%, but also an upside measured target of 5.60%! Stay sharp and keep this on your radar! 📈 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: inflation data aheadThe NFP data were in the center of market attention during the previous week. Analysts perceived posted data as “not too hot and not too cold”. Indeed, they were somewhere in between. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was higher from market estimate, but at the same time the unemployment rate reached 4,2%, a modest increase from 4,1% posted previously. Regardless of these mixed data, CME FedWatch Tool is showing 85% odds for a 25 bps rate cut in December. It should be taken into account that the US inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead, which will bring another layer to market expectations. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were traded to the downside during the previous week. For the second week in a row yields are gradually taking the down course. During the previous week, the 10Y benchmark was closed at the level of 4,17%. Next week, the US November inflation data will be posted, however, investors are currently positioning for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% Soon The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further. A very strong resistance zone is found near 4.16%, which was just broken. Additionally, overall market expectations regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut during the December meeting by 25 basis points or higher speculation may push the US10Y Government Bond Yield down even more. Let's see how the price unfolds during the coming days. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
5
US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
2024 review and where to from here for US10yRisk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on its way to close the year down roughly 4.5%. Meanwhile gold, a risk-off asset similar to US long-term treasuries, touched fresh all-time highs in October at $2,792 per ounce, up almost 30% year-to-date, and bitcoin (regardless whether you see it as a store of value, casino capitalism coin or a reserve asset) is up 125% year-to-date. The US 10-year yield was off to the races in the first four months of the year off the back of elevated inflation and modest US labour market growth which saw yields climb to highs of 4.7%. 10-year yields however turned at the end of April after US CPI topped out at 3.5% in April while the US unemployment rate continued to tick higher. I initially expected treasuries to continue their sell-off in the 2Q2024 and the US 10-year yield to break above the April high of 4.7% to complete another wave higher towards 5.0% however the forward guidance from the Fed coupled with their self-proclaimed victory against inflation ultimately pushed bids for bonds. Additionally, in June the ECB, BOE and other major central banks started front running the Fed with their rate cuts which strengthened the demand for treasuries and the dollar. The failed break above 4.5% in July coupled with the US unemployment rate topping out at a rate of 4.3% let the bond bulls loose. Yields continued to slide rapidly in the 3Q2024 until Japanic Monday on the 5th of August when the carry trade squeeze scorched short positions on the Japanese Yen after the BoJ’s surprise rate hike. Bond bulls managed to pull the yield down to a low of 3.6% before the Fed’s 50bps rate cut unexpectedly halted their run. Counter intuitively, longer-term yields have been rising since the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate. The Fed controls the short the short-end of the yield curve and with the Fed cutting rates coupled with the treasury sell-off, the market finally saw the normalization of the yield curve which has been inverted since July 2022! So, where to from here? The conclusion of the US election results saw treasury yields come off of their highs of around 4.5% but the current sell-off may still have legs if the bond vigilantes see another bout of inflation on the horizon. Additionally, the Fed has indicated that they are in no hurry to cut rates, opting for a more hawkish stance. The last non-farm payroll print will be released on Friday which may give some technical direction for yields heading into 2025. A break below the 200-day and 50-day MA around 4.2% will allow yields to drop back below 4% as we head into the New Year. My prediction is however for a re-test of the 2024 high at 4.7% early in 2025. A break above the 61.8% Fibo level of 4.3% will be an early indication of this move. In terms of technical indicators the RSI still has room to move higher and is close to oversold ranges while a cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA will signal a golden cross. Additionally the impulse wave following the Fed rate cut was very strong which signals to me that we are current seeing a bullish pullback in yields (bearish for bonds).
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts. At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1