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US 3M yield forum

7 days ago

The US10Y-US03M just uninverted. Recession indicator.

Aug 2, 2023

to crash by October 2023 per the rolling over of the 3month 200day curve and the bearish divergence forming on the slow stochastic. You can follow this back to previous 200day roll overs (white line).

Apr 15, 2023

The - yield inversion keeps paving lower lows. It nearly tagged -1.8% today. This level predicts a 70% to 75% chance of an economic recession beginning within the next 12 months.

Mar 5, 2023

Check out the below yearly charts of Goldman Sachs. The current yield curve inversions are confirming what the higher timeframe charts are showing: that the years ahead are likely going to pose a significant headwind for the major investment banks and financial services companies. The Fed continues to drain liquidity out of the financial system at the fastest rate ever, while the system is also the most indebted and over-leveraged ever. This can hardly be expected to end well. If my extrapolation is correct, price may move down to, or even below, the -2 standard deviation before the worst has passed.

Not financial advice. Not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Be aware that this high timeframe chart is not suitable for trading.

tradingview.com/x/iK7UgHDv/
tradingview.com/x/C78HL6Ze/
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Mar 3, 2023

This is definitely a bullish looking weekly chart for . Mid-March into April is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective. However, look at the second chart below. It shows that the 10Y/2Y yield just broke another record for the worst inversion (looking back to the late 1980s). This is a reliable indicator that a recession lies ahead. This yield curve inversion is occurring right as the is also sitting right on its 5-year trend line.

tradingview.com/x/nfx40sJt/
tradingview.com/x/lP9t9FEc/