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U.S. Dollar Index

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DXY trade ideas

DXY TOP DOWN ANALYSIS Weekly Time Frame: Price closed above resistance but rejected on the following week with long bearish candle indicating a possible fake out. Daily Time Frame: Price made a HH however RSI made a LH which is also on overbought territory for a possible trend change. Price made a LL after breaking down form previous low, 106.111 4Hour Time Frame: Price consolidates on support turned resistance making a parallel channel. If price close below the channel with a bearish momentum candle, another confirmation for a short trade. Let me know in the comments your thoughts. Thanks!
TVC:DXYShort
by mykelangelo
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TVC:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 106.245. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 105.683 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
2
USDX Chart Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels Signal The USDX is currently at a crossroads, with potential for both upside and downside movements. A bullish scenario could unfold if the index breaks and holds above resistance, supported by favorable economic data or Fed policies. Conversely, a bearish move could occur if the USDX fails to hold support, with weaker data or dovish Fed commentary pushing the dollar lower. Your trade setup should be based on these key levels: Buy above Y (e.g., 106.00) with a target of W (e.g., 114.00) and stop loss at Z (e.g., 104.00). Sell below Z (e.g., 106.00) with a target of A (e.g., 100.00) and stop loss above Y (e.g., 109.00). By carefully watching these levels and considering economic and fundamental factors, you can take advantage of potential price movements in the USDX. Keep an eye on the key data points and be prepared to adjust your strategy if the market conditions shift.
FUSIONMARKETS:USDX
by QuantumFusionWave
2
DXY before the last NFP of 2024The final wave of a 5-wave impulse is on the cards for the DXY which will allow the index to move towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 109. The DXY has been range bound between 100 and 107 for more than a year and we may finally see a break out of this range. The DXY is currently testing the blue downward trend line that now serves as a neckline and a failed break below 105.38 will be an early signal of another move higher in the DXY. A break below 105 will however invalidate the idea. Technically the 50-day MA cross above the 200-day MA is dollar positive however there is a strong degree of bearish divergence on the RSI indicator which makes the move not as clear cut as I would have liked. All eyes on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls print!
TVC:DXYLong
by Goose96
Market News Report - 01 December 2024After weeks of dominance, the dollar finally took a backseat. The Japanese yen was among the most bullish forces. It found strength against markets like CAD and AUD, aligning with its bullish fundamentals. Let's explore if there are notable changes in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut in December. Still, FOMC minutes last week suggest the Fed remains data-dependent. Keep an eye on the new Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment announcement on Friday. While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Jobs data this week is key to deciding the next near-term directional move for the dollar. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations. Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the recent election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Still, negative US moves would likely result in a pullback for EUR. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight pullback in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Another contributor is the latest Consumer Price Index print, which came in hotter than expected on November 20. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 84% chance of a rate hold by the BoE later this month. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged recently, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD looks to test the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD isn't far from the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut a few weeks ago. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut and 70% chance of a 25 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar still remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. The US NFP and unemployment rate are the main high-impact economic events to watch for this week. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months. The only exception is the Australian dollar, where we have changed from 'weak bullish' to 'neutral.' As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) appears bearish on the 4-hour chart,The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) appears bearish on the 4-hour chart, currently trading downward within a channel. The recent rejection near 106.750 has reinforced resistance, and the price is trending lower, nearing 105.650, which aligns with key support levels. If this bearish momentum continues, the index could aim for stronger support zones, such as 105.500 or below, with the potential for further declines. Breaking these levels may trigger more selling pressure. On the other hand, a rebound from support could temporarily stall the bearish trend. Monitoring volumes and macroeconomic catalysts, like interest rate decisions or major economic data, will be crucial for confirming the next direction.
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
DeGRAM | DXY held the accumulation zoneDXY is near the lower boundary of the channel in the accumulation zone between the trend lines. The index is moving from the lower trend line and has already successfully tested the borders of the current zone and support level again. The chart has formed a harmonic pattern. We expect growth if the index holds in the current zone. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
3
Week Ahead: US Jobs Data in FocusThe first full week of December places the spotlight on US jobs data. Employment metrics from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) land on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, JOLTs data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) airs Tuesday, ADP jobs numbers (Automatic Data Processing) are out Wednesday, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and, of course, the employment situation report makes the airwaves Friday. In addition to US numbers, CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) from Switzerland, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers from Australia, and Canadian jobs figures are released this week. Fed Expected to Cut by 25 Basis Points According to the latest market pricing, investors are leaning in favour of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing the target on the funds rate by another 25 basis points (bps) over a no-change decision at the next meeting on 18 December. US inflation remains ‘sticky’ north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target, with YY (year on year) CPI inflation rising to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, YY PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) rising to 2.4% from 1.9%, and YY PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures), according to a report released last week, elbowed to 2.3% from 2.1%. Core YY CPI inflation – excludes food and energy prices – remained at 3.3%, core PPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and core PCE data rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. So, while inflation has slowed considerably since the pandemic, inflationary pressures show evidence of stubbornness. PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is holding just north of 2.0%, and core PCE has stalled around the 2.8% mark amid increased consumption, particularly in services. This week’s US job numbers will be critical and is the last employment report before the Fed rate announcement. These data will provide a fresh perspective on the health of the world’s largest economy and help determine the trajectory of the Federal funds rate. According to data from Refinitiv, following the economy adding 12,000 new payrolls in October – influenced by the recent hurricanes and strike activity – the median estimate for the November non-farm payrolls data is 190,000, with a max/min estimate range between 270,000 and 160,000. The unemployment rate is also expected to have ticked higher to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October, with average earnings growth expected to slow on both MM (month on month) and YY measures. According to Q3 24 data released last week (second estimate), US economic activity (GDP) remains resilient, running at an annualised pace of 2.8% and was primarily underpinned by personal consumption. With the economy resilient, should job creation report higher-than-expected numbers and unemployment decline, investors could re-evaluate the prospect of a rate cut later this month and lift the US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. US Dollar Index Ahead of Data While the USD caught an early bid off the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the Dollar Index – a geometrically weighted average of the USD’s value against a basket of six currencies – concluded the week on the back foot down 1.6% and dominantly snapped a three-week bullish phase. With scope to continue exploring higher terrain on the monthly chart until resistance from 109.33, the recent correction positions price action at technically noteworthy daily support between 105.48 and 105.80. Couple this with the area sharing chart space with channel support, extended from the low of 100.18, and the Golden Cross – the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA, which suggests a long-term bull market could be on the table – in addition to the USD’s current trend and room to punch higher on the monthly scale, this support area could be a zone that buyers make a show from. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets