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TURKISH LIRA / U.S. DOLLAR

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TRYUSD trade ideas

USDTRY- 20Dec2021USDTRY- 20Dec2021 On the weekly, price continue to bounce to 17.00 which is also the 200% Fib extension resistance. With Stochastic at resistance, we will need to monitor next few days whether the price will pull back from here. On the H4 timeframe, price faced bearish pressure from the 17.00 level. With Stochastic also at resistance, will need to monitor closely whether USDTRY will start to pull back. This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
Short
by TTMFS
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session. The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday. Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being. - USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday. - The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline. The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%. The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March. The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level. While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION. - Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !! It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
5
USDTRY setting up for a fall?We can analise it as much as we want but the truth is anything can happen. On daily chart we’re witnessing possible divergence? The market move is basically parabollic. That reminds me of ETHUSD few months ago that fall enormously after intensive rise. This is different. Turkish rates are definitely very bold move that caused this and in a long term I’m sure it will go to 20 and beyond, but in a short run everything that goes up must fall down, the market must correct. The question is when? Hourly RSI is 93. Trade wisely and good luck.
by Trinnisia_Trades
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTEDI am unchangeable to my view point. It is even misunderstood. The view is medium-term here, whilst the short-term charts are similarly suggesting an imminent decline coming. it is obvious that interest rate policy has weakened sharply, and this against the standard view of managing inflation. The export base is good for Turkey, and the extreme weakening of the TRY will grow the exports even faster, and then you will get an offset of natural selling of USDTRY medium-term. China has done this, but differently. The increase of minimum wages by 50% in Turkey does not help inflation. Ok fundamentals we know, but what now... SELL USDTRY for first corrective move to 12.35 (reduce position here for re-sell). Ultimately we will see 10.05>10.50. Only then I feel we will see much higher.
Short
by peterbokma
11