TRB 2ND BREAKOUT : LONG : LET'S START BREAKING DOWN SOME WRONGSI've heard the usual dismissive labels used in reference to what this little pocket rocket did recently, and as always, I disagree. Quite honestly, in all the time I've been analyzing charts, and trust me, this nerd has spent A LOT of time candle shopping, there have been very few instances where outlier price points were so anomalous that they could confidently be considered as having been manipulated. I've cringed at these terms since the beginning, which quickly led to a blanket boycott of chat rooms, the Ideas page here on TV and participation or interest in any "news" including the sensational articles written by supposed professional analysts. When I started this journey, like anyone, I was under the impression that there had been made enough progress in terms of knowledge gained, that the logical approach would be to seek out the most accomplished students of the craft and learn from them.
I found a video course on Forex markets that appeared authoritative (no clue who it was by, but I know it was pretty famous by then) and reached about two thirds of the way trough before realizing "This guy is a joke.". What killed it for me was his comment about the outlier candle-wicks. He simply said to ignore them as they cannot be explained. I don't know about you, but explaining it is kinda the point, isn't it?
I might have saved myself a lot of solitude had I possessed the ability to accept what I'm told by those who have clearly succeeded in the world, but that's never been a pill I could swallow. So, I did the only thing that made sense to me.. I went solo.. If there's nothing to be learnt from the people at the top besides name calling and witch hunts, then I'm clearly better off making my own way. At least it would be free from stigma and ignorance. There was one thing the presenter said that stuck with me, though; "historic price informs future price" or something to that effect.
The next period doesn't register many memories for me. I quickly became lost in a daily routine that was dedicated exclusively to the task. I looked at every single coin I could find, searching into it's historical performance all the way to the point of listing. This, in itself was oftentimes a curious thing, and to be fair, the only point in the life of any coin that I might agree that there very likely is evidence of price manipulation. It would make sense, since the event, at the exact moment of listing, is the only time where the price isn't regulated or expected to conform to the patterns observed on other exchanges. The interesting thing is that most charts start with a peculiarly large spike. Abnormally large on some, and absolutely enormous..
My theory is that exchanges (or the people running that part of the show, which should be senior management), acquire large bags of the coin prior to listing.. Only they really know when it's scheduled, so the moment it becomes available, they create a wall of purchase orders many times the actual price, which is easy, because there has not been a chance for anyone to sell anything, since the coin doesn't exist on that particular exchange, meaning that anyone who buys it thinking he's getting a ticket on "Wen Moon", is immediately stuck with a large back of overpriced coins, panics and adds to the dump.. This happens in silence and the barriers to entry in order to speak to anyone about it (in the limited cases that there's someone to speak to), are insurmountable. There's no community page where traders communicate among one-another so it can be checked, which means there are some fools out there that regularly and anonymously get absolutely smoked, but there's no real evidence of it, and it doesn't show up on any of the other charts, meaning it will likely never be questioned by anyone and the further the chart progresses from that point, the lower the odds of ever getting caught. Who's gonna listen to someone who got cleaned out by a new listing on a crypto exchange? Nobody. He'll be told that he should have known that it's risky and volatility is normal. But think about how many coins exist in the industry, and they get listed in multiple trading pairs and in multiple instruments other than just spot, which exponentially increases the number of instances of this happening, and it happens on all exchanges, all the time..
The reason I don't believe in the simpleton option of perpetuating stigmas, is because by doing so, we admit and immediately project to others that "I don't understand what I'm talking about, have no interest of digging deeper, cannot think independently..", but more importantly, I've concluded that it's not possible for these rallies to be the result of market manipulation, because they conform to the same exact proportional rule-set which governs all cryptos.. The same exact thing is true for the "rogue candles".. They eventually became one of the tree pillars upon which my methodology was developed, and without them I'd never have formed a comprehensive understanding which led to my TA Method.
The popular thinking, assumptions and blatant lies that are baseless, and in time, I'll debunk and disprove all of them.. Not that I expect it will make a difference to most people, but changing opinions is a result of what I do, not the reason I do it..
Entry price: $120.00, but then I wrote all of this, so now it's $148.50.
Target: $ 495.00
