In the past a down trend on the Dollar translated in a BTC spikeIf we see what BTC did win the past once the dollar started a down trend. I would not be surprised seeing the same this time.
USDINDEX trade ideas
Wait wait wait is the game we playing nowDXY H4 chart
Price is in a LTF consolidation phase and it is located in between the broken LTF swing low at 100.538. This consolidation is signalling to us that buyers entering the market as we closed the trading week rejecting the lows. We will wait for price to break to either the upside or downside and take the required action then but for now we WAIT!!!
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Trend Continues
Dollar Index violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long term bearish trend,
chances are high that a bearish rally will continue.
Next support - 100.00
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Study of DXY, Gold, and Fed Fund Rates using 200MA indicatorBlack line: DXY (U.S. dollar index)
Green line: DXY 200 week moving average
Yellow line: GC (Gold futures)
Blue line: DFF (U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate)
Since 1971 when U.S. dollar went off the gold standard, there have been 6 instances when the DXY crossed below its 200 week moving average while it was rising. At closing on 27 September 2024 was the 7th instance of this DXY crossing.
Of interest:
Performance of gold when DXY crosses below, until DXY reaches a local minimum. Results are highlighted in purple boxes.
Of the 7 instances, interest rates were rising in 4, flat in 1, falling in 1, and presumed to be falling in the current scenario. The only rising rate period was 1985-92, when gold had a very marginal 4% gain. This was notably on the backside of the 1970's high inflation period. Technically, gold showed gains in all but 1 of these historical periods, with 1994-95 showing a 2% loss.
Conclusions:
1) DXY trend reversal downward is not always, or often, associated with a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle nor is it strongly correlated with gold price gains.
2) The start of a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle is not predictive of gold price gains.
Still Dollar index consolidating at narrow range of 100.5 to 102Still Dollar index consolidating at narrow range of 100.5 to 102. It may break trendline or support
Possible Trend of the Dollar Index in 2023In this idea, the trend of the dollar index in 2023 is shown.
In 2022, due to the fall of the stock index of most industrialized countries, we saw the growth of the dollar index, and the final resistance line according to the Fibonacci tool set at the Fibonacci level of 1.41 and the index at 114.
but after that, the dollar index began to fall, and this fall has three hard resistance levels ahead, and the hardest level is the range between Fibonacci 0.38-0.5.
Good luck.
SEYED
Perfect Price ActionI love Fridays. Fridays are potentially weekly moves if not yet fulfilled.
This was a predicted sell, from
4hrOB
1hrLV
to
External range Liq.
Traded 2 pairs connected with dollar for London, made a killing.
Dollar index sellAs dollar index was bearish all the week and in my view it will remain bearish for the next week as Dxy is moving in a falling wedge in which it has completed its 4 waves over H4 to H1 TF and going to complete its last wave 🌊 E if this pattern is not a failed pattern then DXY will remian Bearish all the next week also we our team has observed that Dollar is Bearish on All timeframes from Monthly to weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 so we will be bearish for the next week as Geopolitics is concerned we can predict a downward move in dollar index
Hope for the good 👍😊
DXY on the verge of going down furtherNixon did two favors or beter say, ywo curses to US, one of em was to take the USD off the Gold standard and second was to open the doors to the world for Chinese which i still see as a threat and very dangerous not only for US economy but for all over the world
my ultimate target for now is 95.50 after that, maybe a bounce and further decline
DXY STRUCTUREThe weekend is here, as we wait for the market to open next week, DXY has a weak low to take out before it can move downwards to the 1D OB and then bullish momentum will start coming in, do well to save this and use it as a template for the coming week keep your mind flexible so you can be able to adapt to any new price movement. together we can win.
DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.625
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
End of the week analysis27th September
DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80
USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200
USDCHF: Nothing for now
USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
Possibility yIt is expected that the corrective trend will end in the specified support range and we will see the beginning of the upward trend. Otherwise, it will be possible to continue the downward trend up to the specified support levels
DeGRAM | DXY reached the dynamic resistanceDXY is moving in a descending channel under the upper trend line.
The price has already reached the dynamic resistance, which has twice acted as a pullback point.
The chart is under the resistance level and the retracement level.
We expect a decline.
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DXYLooking for buy opportunities confluence of harmonic patterns. Area of demand.
Crab pattern and Shark pattern.
DXY SETUPAs we can see DXY is currently shifting trends now from bearish to bullish , banks and hedge funds are busy locking in their buy positions slowly to confuse retail traders hence there are major consolidations...We are approaching NFP week , DXY might buy which will cause a strengthening to the dollar . This will cause most XXXUSD pairs to sell and USDXXX pairs to buy....Lets just keep a close eye on it
EURUSD end of day updateTechnically it is not the end of the day because in the U.S. the markets are still open, but as a last update for the day on the Dollar we will switch to the 30 min timeframe and see what happens: if from now on we will get a nice 30 min correction with its correlated cross in red on the macd (simulated with a brush) and the price will not just drop to retest the low, tomorrow again we will look for buy setups (so sells on eurusd, gbpusd and possibly gold).
If instead the price will drop strongly to the downside and will give a small correction to the upside - light blue arrows (which would most likely be a 5 minute timeframe red cross on the macd for the impulse and a subsequent green cross on the macd for the correction) then we will temporarily forget the sells on the xxxusd pairs and check if there are any buy setups that are worth it.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.746
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Livestream Levels26th September
DXY: If it breaks above 101 and bearish trendline, could trade up to 101.30. Needs to break 100.80 to signal continuation of downtrend.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 30 TP 70
AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.6820
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3285 SL 40 TP 110
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 20 TP 50
USDJPY: Buy 145.30 SL 40 TP 160
USDCHF: Nothing for now
USDCAD: Buy 1.3515 SL 25 TP 80
Gold: Break 2670 could see rapid rise to 2700
DXY - MidtermThe FED surprised the markets with a 0.50 point preemptive rate cut. We expect this preemptive cut to cause a downward movement in the dollar index. However, we do not foresee a long-term downtrend. While the FED started the process with a larger-than-expected cut, other central banks had already begun their rate-cutting cycles much earlier. Therefore, after a brief decline, we expect the dollar index to stabilize and rise again.
Technically, the first of our two major support levels, 100.6, has been broken. We now expect the decline to continue towards the second major support zone between 99.4 and 99.75. The double-top technical formation on short-term charts also supports the downward momentum. If the price finds support in the 99.4 - 99.75 range, we could see a rise towards the 102.2 - 103 area.
As for the impact on other dollar pairs, we expect to see upward movements in XxxUsd pairs and downward movements in UsdXxx pairs.
Dollar bulls are strong hereIt has now been exactly a month since the DXY dropped to its price at the start of the year, which also serves as a technical support level. The price has bounced back from this zone twice but has failed to break above the 102 resistance, falling back each time.
However, each time the bears attempted a decisive break downward, the bulls stepped in and pushed the price back up. Although the price did dip below the support zone on two occasions, these breaks were minor (around 0.2%) and did not qualify as significant.
Yesterday, the price once again reversed strongly from this well-established support zone. It seems as though the bulls are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a true reversal.
I anticipate that the USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks.
A break above the 102 resistance would confirm a bottom and open the path for further gains, with 104 as the next target.
