Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.24.2024🔮 ⏰10:00am Richmond Manufacturing Index #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investingShortby PogChan2
Equities Could Rise Further in 2025Will there be a bigger bubble in the rising stock market? Unbelievably, on a technical analysis level, the rise has not come to an end.Longby Super_B_XinR2
SPX Broad Outline Dec 2024Likely entering the Vol expansion regime. From a potential high, peak to trough min 20% to spike below 4820 within the next 2 years. Usually, the cycle low is made by mid 2 year, so it means 1.5 years of danger aheadby Neon1
Benner's cycle tops Benner Cycle is a chart depicting market cycles between the years 1924 to 2059. The chart was originally published by Ohioan farmer Samuel Benner in his 1884 book, "Benner's Prophecies of Ups and Downs in Prices". The chart marks three phases of market cycles: A. Panic Years - "Years in which panic have occurred and will occur again. B. Good Times - "Years of Good Times. High prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds. C. Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc. and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload.by ipitch1
Another drop for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a correction up, broke through the lower Daily/ Weekly FVG and took the liquidity under the low (of blue wave 4). After price closed below the Daily/ Weekly FVG, it became a Balanced price range (BPR). So next week we could see a correction down and a retest into the Weekly/ Daily BPR. After that this pair could drop again. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down and retest into the BPR's. After a change in orderflow to bearish, you could trade shorts. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveShortby EduwaveTrading118
Very Bearish Elliott Wave Pattern The S&P 500 (SPX) since its all-time high appears to be forming a series of "one's" and "two's " to the downside. This could be the prelude to a very large decline in early 2025. Short-term the SPX could rally into the low 6,000 area soon. If so his could be an important peak. Shortby markrivest5
SPX Hit Major Resistance Levels In the hours before the election result I posted some longform swing plans on SPX covering the event of a 1.27 hold marking a low. The stages of this would been a parabolic move off the 1.27. A run up to 2.20. Some sort of stall there and then a follow through to 2.61. We now have all stages of that and in the 6050 - 6080 area I exited all my SPX longs taken in the wake of the election and began to build up a short position again. 2.61s are polarising levels. Now the 2.61 has hit the odds of a clean move to one side or the other is very high. 2.61 breaks result in parabolic moves to 3.xx fibs and failure of the 2.61 usually means capitulation to at least the 1.27 (round tripping this rally). Spent last week shorting / buying puts into the rally to position for the possible 2.61 rejecti0on. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 12127
SPX updateIn my view in the first days of 2025 we'll se a new ATH @ 6144 then a correction to 5651 area before last bullish wave to 6430 that will close the SPX bullish cycle started in 2020. In 2025 a massive market crash will dump SPX to 3400 areaby mpd1
Complete analysis - shooortS&P 500 Bias: • Weekly – Uptrend • Daily – Downtrend • 4H – Uptrend • 1H – Uptrend Fair Value Gap’s. • 5,740 – 5,830 on the daily • 6,038 – 5,934 on the daily, filled in by last candle • 5,979 – 6,016 on the 2H, (23 Dec 15.30 – 24 Dec 11.30) Order Block: • 6,037 – 6,063 on the 1H, (17 Dec 15.30 – 18 Dec 11.30) • 5,892 – 5,840 on the 30M (19 dec 15.30 – 20 Dec 09.30) Liquidity pool: • 5,700 • 5,854 (Got hit at 09.30 and Bullishly swept from 09.50 ending in a Premium short with the use of Equilibrium at 12.00) • 6,102 I think we are going to se it draw back in to the FVG that the last three 2H candles created before then testing the Order Block at 6,037 – 6,063 and procced to hunt the liquidity laying at 6,103 since it’s on a bullish rally on the daily since 20 Dec after hitting Liquidity laying there. Before dipping all the way down to the FVG at 5,740 – 5,830. And I think it will go on to the Premium buy side since the market would probably want to hit the Liquidity laying at 5,700. Though I really doubt it is going to hit that since we are in an weekly uptrend. From the previous reactions of all the building block I showed it seems it will still follow the same pattern if not any news shows up, I have showed prices reacting of previously named building blocks and then proceeded to predict it next moves based on that the market will continue that pattern. Ideally the best entry for a short would in my opinion be at 6,102 and above after seeing a break of structure to the downside at the 15M chart. I am pretty new to this so would love any feedback. You don’t agree with the analysis? Then please comment why so I could see you’re resoning. Shortby LucasIMH1
SPX will go to 62201. On the daily chart, SPX is trading within an upward channel, with the MACD lines positioned above the zero line. 2. SPX has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through the key 6000 level. The next resistance is expected near 6100. If a pullback stabilizes around 5982, it could push toward a new high of 6220 (the 6220 level corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement). 3. Once SPX makes a new high above 6220, it could signal a potential pullback, with support expected around 5700.Longby WhaleTJ1
SPX-When will the new high be on the chart?On the daily chart, the uptrend bounced from an intact support around 5870, which is around the 50 moving average and the 0.236 fibonacci. Local peak is 6100, this is the first resistance, next is 6200-6300, the top of the ascending channel. Until then, you can rest several times. After the ascent of the last day, there may be a few days of calm until you gather strength. The rise would be supported if the Macd histogram turned positive and the blue macd band crossed the orange signal band from below.Longby shillard041
S&P 500: Consolidation and Bearish Momentum Below Key LevelsS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped on Friday and stabilized within bearish momentum. In general, as long as it trades below 6,022, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 5,936, with the potential to reach 5,863 if the downward momentum persists. The S&P 500 is currently consolidating between 5,993 and 5,936 until a breakout occurs. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5993 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099 Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5863 Trend Outlook: Consolidation between 5993 and 5936 Bearish Trend while below 6022 Shortby SroshMayi4
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.27.2024🔮 ⏰1:00pm Crude Oil Inventories GAP ABOVE HPZ: A lot of people are buying into this rally. If we do gap up this can trigger a mechanical event to drop the markets OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Will be rough to continue higher Once again people are buying into this rally. GAP BELOW HCZ: Would trigger great hedging but the markets will struggle to react to it as the markets drop, so it will hold for a little bit #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investingShortby PogChan1
S&P 500 Analysis: Elliott Waves & ATR Setup 12/27/20241. Analysis Based on Elliott Wave Theory Long-term Perspective (Weekly Chart): The long-term analysis suggests that the market is currently in the 5th wave of an Elliott Cycle . Wave 4 was a typical corrective move, ending around the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of Wave 3. The completion of Wave 4 indicates the potential continuation of an uptrend into Wave 5. Wave 5 Projection: Based on Fibonacci extensions, the target for Wave 5 could be in the range of 6,150–6,300 USD. This is supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows and ongoing market strength. Mid-term Perspective (Daily Chart): The market is showing a strong impulse structure with consistent upward movements. The current movement could represent sub-wave 5 within the larger Wave 5. An Ending Diagonal or final impulse might be forming here. Key area: 6,050–6,100 USD, a critical resistance zone that has been tested multiple times and indicates a potential breakout level. Short-term Perspective (H4 and H1 Charts): Corrections within the short-term waves exhibit clear impulsive and corrective patterns. The recent consolidation could be identified as Wave 4 within sub-wave 5. A breakout above the 6,050 USD area would confirm the continuation of the impulsive move. 2. Market Structure Analysis Trend Direction and Structure: Long-term Trend (Weekly): The market is in a strong uptrend with clear higher highs and higher lows. The price is holding above the 200-day EMA, reflecting a bullish long-term bias. Mid-term Trend (Daily): The market remains in an intact uptrend, with prices trading above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, reinforcing the bullish bias. Short-term Trend (H4 and H1): The market has experienced a brief consolidation phase but continues to show a slight upward trend with higher lows. Key Support and Resistance Zones: Resistance Levels: 6,050–6,100 USD: Critical level tested multiple times. A breakout above this zone could trigger a stronger upward move. Support Levels: Primary: 5,950 USD. Secondary: 5,900 USD. A break below 5,900 USD could jeopardize the bullish structure and lead to a corrective move. Volume Analysis: During the consolidation phase, declining volume was observed, which is typical for accumulation prior to an impulsive move. A surge in volume upon a breakout above 6,050 USD would confirm the bullish move. 3. Risk Management with ATR (Average True Range) Current ATR (Daily): ~80 points. This indicates that the market currently fluctuates by approximately 80 points per day. ATR-based Stop-Loss Strategy: Place the stop-loss 1x ATR (80 points) below the entry level to provide enough room for market fluctuations. ATR-based Take-Profit Strategy: The first target is set at 2x ATR (160 points) above the entry level, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio of 2:1. 4. Trading Setup Long Setup (Bullish Scenario): Entry Point: Above the resistance level of 6,050 USD on a closing basis (Daily or H4). The breakout should be accompanied by increasing volume. Stop-Loss: Place below 5,950 USD or 1x ATR (~80 points below the entry price). Take-Profit: Primary Target: 6,200 USD (2x ATR). Secondary Target: 6,280 USD, if the movement sustains. Risk Management: Risk a maximum of 1–2% of total capital per trade. Calculate position size based on ATR and account size: Example: For a 10,000 USD account with 2% risk (200 USD), the position size is 2.5 CFDs (200 USD risk ÷ 80 USD ATR). Short Setup (Bearish Scenario in Case of Failed Breakout): Entry Point: Below 5,900 USD if the price breaks this level. Confirmation via increased volume. Stop-Loss: Place above 5,950 USD or 1x ATR (~80 points above the entry price). Take-Profit: Primary Target: 5,800 USD. Secondary Target: 5,720 USD. Risk Management: Use the same principles as in the Long Setup (1–2% capital risk, ATR-based position sizing). 5. Explanation and Notes ATR (Average True Range): ATR measures market volatility and is used to set adaptive stop-loss and take-profit levels that accommodate daily price fluctuations. Elliott Wave Theory: This theory identifies impulsive and corrective wave patterns. The current setup suggests we are in a potential final Wave 5, often characterized by strong price moves. Market Structure: Identifying trends (higher highs/lows) and key support/resistance zones are critical for confirming the analysis and planning entries and exits. 6. Risk Disclaimer Disclaimer: Trading financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed the invested capital. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions, and consult a financial advisor if necessary. Copyright © 2024 ChartWiseInsights. All rights reserved.by ChartWiseTrading1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.30.2024🔮 📅 Mon Dec 30 ⏰ 9:45am Chicago PMI: 42.7 (previous: 40.2) ⏰ 10:00am Pending Home Sales m/m: 0.9% (previous: 2.0%) 📅 Tue Dec 31 ⏰ 9:00am S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: 4.1% (previous: 4.6%) 📅 Thu Jan 2 ⏰ 8:30am Unemployment Claims: 220K (previous: 219K) ⏰ 9:45am Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.3) ⏰ 11:00am Crude Oil Inventories 📅 Fri Jan 3 ⏰ 10:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.4) GAP ABOVE HPZ: Markets are playing traders like a fiddle. If it pumps then an impeding drop OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Tag the upper levels before drop into 5951 area GAP BELOW HCZ: This will cause extreme hedging which will drag the markets up higher before a dump lower #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investingby PogChan1
SPX Head & Shoulders Top on Daily... Watching for $5600 to $5200Hi Traders, SPX is showing signs of a potentially bearish formation—a head and shoulders top. Historically, this pattern has signaled increased downside risk for equity markets. As the price draws closer to the neckline, a break below could take us to the next major support level around 5,600. This will be a crucial zone to for traders and investors to monitor closely. Market conditions could sour quickly and an accelerated drop should cause traders to act cautiously over the next couple of weeks. Good luck out there. Mark Shortby MarkStPeter2
19.12.24 SPX 5872 : Sector RotationRegarding the last 15 to 20 months, on monthly chart, you will find the comparison between the major sectors within the SPX: semiconductors, finance, retailer goods, information technology. What is interesting: sector information technology still rising, no cut, no descending, linear rsining, not hyperpolic, which is still a sign of exuberation. The largest companies in this sector: Oracle, Microsoft, nvidia, adobe, accenture, intel, cisco, salesforce, apple. So main question is: if information technology is our favorite for 2025, which of the companies are the relative strongest and at fair price/earning. Answer will be given in separate chart. And then we will well prepared downmove in SPX which i expect in jan/feb for 10-20%. Dan, 19th of September.by FlyerdanUpdated 112
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.23.2024🔮 📅Mon Dec 23 ⏰10:00am CB Consumer Confidence 📅Tue Dec 24 ⏰8:30am Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m ⏰10:00am New Home Sales Richmond Manufacturing Index 📅Thu Dec 26 ⏰8:30am Unemployment Claims 11:00am Crude Oil Inventories #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting Shortby PogChan2
SPX - H4 - keep going upMy analysis shows that the SPX may have a few days sideways but will shoot up to 6260 as the next resistance.Longby TexasSadr5
The S&P500 is struggling to reach its previous peak The S&P500 is approaching the 5914-5892 support range on the one-hour timeframe after a price decline. This area acts as strong support due to previous reactions and a crossover with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The price reaction to this support area indicates buyers’ willingness to increase their strength. The bullish candles that will form after hitting this level indicate a possible price reversal. If this level holds, a move towards the targets of 6033 and then 6126 is possible in the short term. However, a break of the support level of 5892 could lead to a further decline and a drop to lower ranges. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction to these ranges as well as trading volume.Longby arongroups1
Market Breadth showing Weakness Market Breadth showing Weakness. Drops back below key level. Yield curve starting to steepen, breaking the longest inverted period in history. Looking for the next red monthly inside candle early next year to start getting bearish. Only two rate cuts anticipated next year instead of four.by TheTradersBias2
Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices. by TradeNation118
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Time to Recover It looks like US500 is ready to recover after the yesterday's crazy bearish movement. We may see a pullback at least to 5940/ ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ Longby VasilyTrader116