SPX H&SHead and shoulder pattern will confirm or deny here shortly. The target for the H&S breakout would fill the gap below. It has made multiple bearish divergences lately making new highs. Seems like we are due for a healthy pull back.
SPX trade ideas
The bulls need to reclaim 5815! Structurally, the SPX has printed a higher low compared to the previous day, with the weekly low at 5863 and the higher low at 5785. A break below 5800 opens the door to 5785; a break below 5785, implies an outside day with major support at 5765/5760. If bulls cannot reclaim the 5815/5825 zone, this would be interpreted as a backtest of the breakdown zone from Wednesday.
Dealer Gamma remains more neutral than imbalanced, but flows are destabilizing. There is potential for significant directional or flash moves as dealers chase deltas, selling weakness and buying strength.
Since VIX remains elevated, 19 and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a premium, implied volatility could be an exacerbating factor in both directions. The upside is heavily dependent on a vol down environment. A reclaim of the 5815 Flip (dealer transition) often attracts volatility sellers, which could trigger a sharp upside squeeze. Vol crush Friday?
$SPX pattern repeatingThis is essentially already explained on the chart.
my own short entry point would be around 5770 with a target of 5400
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US500 likely bearish in the long termIf the price fails to break above 5825 and starts to reverse, it may retest 5755 or drop lower to 5730. A stop loss can be set above 5850.
For a bullish scenario to play out, the price needs to break above 5825 and sustain above 5850, targeting 5880 or higher. However, current indicators suggest limited upside in the immediate term without stronger volume support.
Are Stocks Topping for Now?The S&P 500 has had a dramatic run, with gains in the last six weeks and 10 of the last 11 months. But will the run continue?
The first pattern on today’s chart is last week’s low around 5804. The index crossed under it and stayed there yesterday, producing a lower low on the weekly chart. Ending the week below that level could resemble moments like late-July or early April, when pullbacks followed.
Second, the index got rejected at or near highs on October 15 and 17. Those solid candles (marked with white arrows) may reflect selling pressures.
MACD also turned lower and prices closed below the 8-day exponential moving average, which could suggest momentum is slowing.
Next, the Nasdaq-100 stalled below its July peak. Does that reflect exhaustion among the biggest stocks in the market?
This lethargic price action in the big growth names contrasts with Treasury yields pushing higher. That may also be a risk to equities and risk assets in general.
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SPX to turnaround?US500 - 24h expiry
Broken out of the wedge to the downside.
The formation has a measured move target of 5773.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 5847 (stop at 5865)
Our profit targets will be 5802 and 5792
Resistance: 5845 / 5847 / 5857
Support: 5815 / 5800 / 5785
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Price Reversal at Key Support with Consolidation ExpectedTechnical Analysis:
The price has reached the previously identified support zone and has once again reversed its course.
At present, it is anticipated that the price will attempt to reach 5,863, provided it continues to trade above the 5,824 and 5,800 levels. However, the price is likely to remain in a consolidation phase between 5,863 and 5,824 until a decisive breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5837
Resistance Levels: 5863, 5891, 5939
Support Levels: 5824, 5812, 5781
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5824
Bullish above 5824
Why Buying High and Selling Low Hurts Your PortfolioStock trading can be a pathway to wealth, but it requires a disciplined approach and a deep understanding of market dynamics. One of the most common errors traders make is buying high and selling low. This mistake, driven by emotions like greed and fear, occurs when traders buy stocks at peak prices due to hype, only to sell them later at a loss when panic sets in. This fundamental error not only undermines trading performance but also runs counter to the basic principle of buying low and selling high.
Understanding the Classic Mistake
"Buying high and selling low" refers to purchasing stocks at elevated prices, often driven by market euphoria, and selling them at lower prices out of panic during a downturn. For example, consider a trader who buys tech stocks during a strong rally, expecting continued gains. When the market corrects and prices drop, the trader panics and sells at a loss, embodying the classic mistake.
SPX Chart Daily with RSI Indicator
Psychological and Emotional Triggers
The root cause of buying high and selling low often lies in emotional and psychological triggers:
--Greed: This can push traders to chase rising stocks, leading to buying at inflated prices.
--Fear: Panic can set in during downturns, prompting traders to sell prematurely to avoid further losses.
--Cognitive Biases: FOMO (fear of missing out) and loss aversion further exacerbate this behavior, clouding judgment and increasing the likelihood of impulsive trading decisions.
Trading with divergences is a powerful tool for identifying potential reversals.
Why It’s a Problem
The impact of buying high and selling low can be devastating. Repeated losses from this mistake can erode capital, reduce recovery potential, and derail long-term financial goals.
--Market Timing Issues: Poor timing, especially in volatile markets, often leads to buying during uptrends and selling during downtrends.
--Profitability Impact: The repeated pattern of trading against the trend limits profitability, making it harder to grow wealth over time.
Identifying the Mistake in Practice
Recognizing this mistake early is crucial. Common scenarios include:
--Bull Markets: FOMO can drive traders to buy during rallies, often at inflated prices.
--Market Corrections: Panic selling during downturns leads to locking in losses, even if the stock rebounds soon after.
Warning Signs include overbought/oversold conditions, excessive market hype, and impulsive decisions based on emotional reactions.
Strategies to Avoid Buying High and Selling Low
To avoid this mistake, traders must employ a disciplined approach:
--Develop a Trading Plan: Set clear entry/exit criteria, define risk management rules, and commit to the plan even during volatility.
--Use Technical Analysis: Tools like Moving Averages and RSI help identify overbought/oversold conditions, guiding better entry/exit decisions.
RSI as Technical Tool on Nasdaq NQ1!
--Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: These predefined levels limit potential losses and lock in gains, preventing emotional decisions.
Psychological and Behavioral Adjustments
Improving trading performance involves managing emotions and making rational decisions:
--Managing Emotions: Techniques like journaling and mindfulness can help traders remain calm and focused.
--Improving Decision-Making: Objective analysis, regular review of trades, and checklists can ensure systematic, data-driven decision-making.
Conclusion
The mistake of buying high and selling low is a common pitfall in stock trading, driven by emotional biases and poor timing. By understanding this mistake, developing a solid trading plan, using technical tools, and setting Stop Loss/Take Profit levels, traders can significantly reduce losses and enhance profitability. Implementing disciplined practices and improving decision-making processes are key to overcoming this classic error and achieving long-term trading success.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for 10.24.24OK, so in SPX, here we also closed right at the bottom of the implied move for the week, which is 5800. If you've been watching the videos you know how we got that number. That's the number right in the middle of the trading range. Above us, we have the 30-minute moving average and the 35 EMA; they are both in today's trading range, and the way they interact is very important. If the 35 EMA crosses underneath the 30-minute moving average, we have gone bearish. We could also bounce here, which futures suggest, and if the 35 EMA bounces on the 30-minute moving average, then we will resume upwards or keep consolidating here. As long as the 35EMA is above the 30min 200MA we are bullish on this timeframe.
The top of the implied move is 5840, and 5850 on Friday's contract. If we do trade up today, I would be looking at 5845-5855 bear spreads. And if we drop, the one-hour 200 is underneath us, ready to catch us. The bottom of the implied move is 5750 and 5740 on Friday's contract. Here again, if we drop, I'll probably be looking at 5745-5735 bull put spreads.
Also, guys I didn't add this to the chart above but we do have a bear gap at the very top of the training range from yesterday.
GL today, y'all
S&P 500: Temporary correction due to rising bond yields?The U.S. stock market, especially the S&P 500, has experienced a recent correction due to rising 10-year Treasury yields, which have reached their highest level since July. While this increase has put pressure on stocks, some analysts believe the impact could be temporary.
The S&P 500(Ticker AT:USA500), which has shown positive performance in 2024, continues to be driven by a strong economy and solid corporate results. Despite the recent downturn, there is optimism about the market's upside potential, especially in cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials. The expectation is that economic growth and corporate earnings will continue to support the index, despite concerns about higher bond yields.
The rise in yields reflects the strength of the U.S. economy, which has raised concerns among some investors, but does not appear to be enough of an obstacle to slow the market's long-term rally. In recent years, the market has shown resilience in the face of high yields, suggesting that this correction may only be a temporary adjustment.
Sectors with upside potential based on the context of recent market movements:
1. Technology:
o Technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia remain key, especially with the growth of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and demand for cloud software and services.
2. Energy:
o With the rise of renewable energy and the global energy transition, companies like ExxonMobil (in the traditional sector) and NextEra Energy (in clean energy) may have upside potential in this environment.
3. Healthcare:
o Biotech and pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson maintain an attractive profile thanks to innovation in medical treatments and the stability of the sector.
4. Financials:
o Banks and insurers tend to benefit from rising Treasury yields, with companies like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America being in a good position to take advantage of a strong economic environment.
5. Industrials:
o With global infrastructure improving and demand picking up, companies like Caterpillar and Honeywell have room for growth.
6. Real Estate:
o Despite interest rate sensitivity, companies like Prologis (logistics real estate) are well positioned for an environment of expanding logistics needs, driven by e-commerce.
Looking at the S&P500 chart, it is currently located in the upper zone of the channel at 5,827.90 points near the historical high of 5,886.35 points. The initial support zone of the current impulse is located at 5,151.97 points, with other support zones above that position the last support at 5,636.80 points. The price bell control point (POC) is located precisely in this zone. It would not be unusual to see the index looking for 6,000 points and executing a healthy price correction in the direction of the indicated control point. If this price were to be pierced to the downside, the next control zone would be located at 5,398.75 points. At the moment, it appears that bonds seem to be exerting more pressure than expected, the strong economy could keep the index in this bullish directionality.
In summary, although the rise in Treasury yields has impacted the S&P 500, the uptrend is expected to continue, driven by a favorable economic environment and solid corporate earnings.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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US500 S&P Technical Analysis & Trade Idea 👀👉 US500: I am carefully watching for a potential buying opportunity based on the key criteria discussed in the video regarding the SPX. In this analysis, we will examine the crucial price action signals to track and how to position yourself strategically to capitalise on the next market move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.📊✅
6Months EWwell, as noted before, s&P did hit the 5860 mark and retraced for some profits taken.
Elections are coming up, possible will be a trigger for new highs, breaking the 5900-6000 marks (at least for the short term). Else - it will be a painful drop. So always be on the guard...
long term - time will tell...
cheers mates
S&P500 This pull back is an excellent buy opportunity.S&P500 is pulling back intraday but remains over the MA50 (1d).
The bullish trend is intact and is being guided by this long term Channel Up since the 2022 bottom.
The price is right nowjust over the 0.382 Fib Channel level, which isn't overbought by any means.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6000 (the 0.618 Fib level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is about to touch its Rising Support, a pattern very similar to the March - June 2023 Rising Support. The two fractals look identical even on price terms. This also indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.
Please like, follow and comment!!
SPX has broken minor trend line, looking vulnerable to downside.Intraday Update: The SPX has broken a minor trend line from August to present day. We are also at horizontal support of highs from early October. A move below here would put the 5707 then 5586 levels in play.
S&P correction has startedFinally seeing a market correction
Bullish structure has been broken
Expect at least a pullback into $5600
SPX500 ,,, PullbackUptrend
The market with corrections is more reliable than without them.
In my view, this is a small correction and a pullback to a broken level. I am waiting for a reaction and a good trigger for getting new buying positions on the S/R zone between 5760-5790.
And the market has not promised to listen to us all the time, so it can return right from here. Having good signs for coming back to rising is our priority.
SPX500 Will Go Down!SPX500 is going down
Now after the bearish
Breakout of the rising support
So after a potential local
Pullback we will be
Expecting a further move down
US500The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is experiencing a downturn due to economic uncertainty and profit-taking by investors. Key support levels will be crucial in determining if the bearish trend persists.
SPX 6440 in march then massive 50% correctionIn my view SPX started a short term bearish correction targeting 6650 then bullish trend will restart to target 6440 area in march then I expect a massive bearish move to 3200 in 2026
SPX at Great Depression and Dot-Com Crash LevelsCurrent deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble.
Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)
Bulls and Bears zone for 10-23-2024S&P 500 has been range bound last several days.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5870 ---5872
Reports to watch:
US Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
US Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
S&P500 Index -Liquidity Zone consolidationTechnical Analysis:
The price is currently trading within a liquidity zone between 5,849 and 5,891, showing consolidation. A retest of this liquidity zone is likely, with a potential rejection if the price fails to break above 5,891.
If the price breaks and holds above the 5,891 level, the next target would be the resistance line at around 5,939.
On the downside, a rejection from the liquidity zone could send the price back down towards the support line near 5,825 or even further towards 5,781.
Correct Direction:
Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5,891 and the liquidity zone holds as resistance, the price is likely to move towards 5,825 or lower.
Bullish: If the price breaks and closes above 5,891, a bullish continuation towards 5,939 is expected.
The overall bias is bearish unless there is a confirmed breakout above the liquidity zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5891, 5915, 5939
Support Levels: 5836, 5807, 5781
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5863
Bullish above 5891
