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SPX Ascending Wedge BreakSPX had a clean break and retest of its ascending wedge last week. It was a strong move back up off of 5850, but it rejected on the retest. Range is now from 5,850 to ATH. Looking to see if bulls can reclaim that trendline or not. For now I'd be bullish above 5,850 and bearish below. Downside target would be the election gap fill and/or the previous ATH around 5,669. We're still near ATH so that will continue to be the upside target. Long confirmation would come if it reclaimed the wedge + the descending trendline above.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
3
S&P 500 Holding Within Ascending ChannelChart Analysis: The S&P 500 Index remains firmly within its ascending channel (green zone), with the current price rebounding from the channel's midline near 6,006.5. The bullish structure remains intact, supported by key moving averages. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Price continues to respect the channel boundaries, with recent consolidation near the midline and potential for further upside toward the upper boundary. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 5,938.1, acting as immediate support and reinforcing the bullish short-term trend. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 5,547.4, providing robust long-term support for the broader trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 52.74, indicating neutral momentum and room for price movement in either direction. MACD: Positive but flattening, suggesting momentum remains supportive of the uptrend, though caution is warranted. What to Watch: A continued bounce higher could target the channel's upper boundary near 6,100–6,150, while a failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could shift focus to the lower boundary near 5,800. Momentum signals from the RSI and MACD will be crucial in determining whether the current bounce has the strength to sustain a move higher. The S&P 500 remains structurally bullish within its ascending channel, with key support and resistance levels offering clear guidance for traders. -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Planning SPX Longs into A Break Lower SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that. Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib. In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're now getting close to the level I think we'd be likely to find support if this is a bull move that is just having a flash crash correction. Planning to start picking up longs if we spike down closer to 5800. Will likely buy deep OTM calls at this price if we hit it. Broadly speaking risk off on my positions at the moment. Banked most of my profits. Don't plan to do much trading the rest of the year. Do plan to do a lot of trade plan prepping for decision at the macro inflection point. Whatever way it goes, my hypothesis is we're going to see faster and faster markets going forward. Great times to be a trader. I want to make sure I'm prepped to benefit from any of the "Known" outcomes that fit inside my strats.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
1
Another move down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a correction up and retested the whole Daily FVG above. After that this pair dropped again. Next week we could see a correction up and another drop. Trade idea: Wait for the correction up and retest into the 4H FVG's. After a change in orderflow to bearish, you could trade shorts. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support. Pivot: 6,027.45 1st Support: 5,869.16 1st Resistance: 6,182.03 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
Navigating the S&P 500🟢 Navigating the S&P 500 The S&P 500 index is near all-time highs, and many voices are starting to question these prices, even talking about a bubble. But is this true? Setting aside opinions and focusing on technical analysis, it's important to note that as long as we don't lose the $5,860 level, we will remain in a bullish market . Therefore, buying in that area is interesting in terms of risk/reward. Losing this level places us in a sideways zone, where range trading can be sought, knowing that we could be sideways for months. Finally, if the $5,670 zone is lost, we would indeed be facing a bearish market where more severe corrections could occur. ✅ What pattern is unfolding in SP:SPX ? We are seeing a Head and shoulders pattern developing, but we need to break the 5.860$ level to confirm it. Consequently the break of the level confirms at least a Neutral market but also a H&S pattern! ✴️ Do you want me to analyze any market? Just comment below which market you want me to analyze. ENJOY AND FOLLOW for more 😊
SP:SPX
by TopChartPatterns
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,869.57 1st Support: 5,707.08 1st Resistance: 6,093.53 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
Year 2025 and Beyond: Where to Place Your Bets?S&P 500: US indices may continue their upward trend until the first quarter of 2025. The ultimate target appears to be above 6300, where they may peak and begin a significant correction. A global stock sell-off could potentially trigger a stock market crash similar to that of 2008. India's Nifty 50: India's Nifty 50 may find support around the 23,000–22,700 range and resume its upward movement in the final fifth wave, targeting a peak near 29,000. The Nifty 50 is likely to follow a trend similar to the S&P 500. The bullish cycle that began in 2009 is expected to conclude near the 29,000 level. Subsequently, a significant sell-off in Indian indices could trigger a major bear market, potentially erasing up to 50% of market capitalization from its peak. Gold: Gold may continue its consolidation for another month or two. A final surge toward the $3,000–$3,100 range is expected to mark the end of the rally that began in December 2015 at the $1,050 level. However, the bear market in equities is unlikely to spare even the perceived safe haven, leading to a pullback in gold prices as well. Brent Crude: Since March 2020, Brent crude experienced a remarkable rise, surging from $15 per barrel to $139 per barrel by March 2022. Over the past 33 months, it has already corrected by more than 47%. Brent crude is still expected to decline further, potentially reaching $50 per barrel within the next 3 to 6 months. However, the current inflationary trend could drive Brent prices beyond $160 per barrel later in 2025, before eventually succumbing to a deflationary trend that may persist for several years. US Dollar Index: The US Dollar Index peaked at around 114 in September 2022. Since then, it declined to 100 by July 2023 before starting to rise again in a corrective A-B-C pattern, forming part of a larger (A)-(B)-(C) decline. The Wave C of (B) is expected to conclude near 109, followed by another decline toward 98 by the first half of 2025. However, a renewed bullish trend in the US Dollar Index could reinforce the "Cash is King" narrative during a global equity market downturn. USD/INR: The bullish trend in USD/INR, which began in January 2008 at the 39 level, has seen the Indian Rupee weaken by over 60% against the US Dollar over the past 17 years. In the short term, USD/INR may peak around 86. However, the Rupee is likely to weaken further, reaching 90 against the US Dollar by the second quarter of 2025. US Govt. 10 years bond yield: The long-term yield on U.S. Government 10-year bond's yield indicates rising interest rates for this decade. In the short term, the yield may ease to 3%-2.6% by the second quarter of 2025. However, fears of a U.S. Government default could push the yield to 10% or higher over the next couple of years. The "Bond Ghost," along with a global equity rout, may haunt investors again in 2025-2026. Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue until the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace. BTC still has the potential to reach around $115k-$120k, concluding the bullish run that began in November 2022 from the level of $15,500. Over the past decade and a half, BTC has significantly outpaced any other asset class globally. However, global risk aversion, which may start with an initial global equity market sell-off, could pause Bitcoin's bullish journey for the rest of 2025. Before the end of 2025, BTC might lose up to 50% of its value from its peak. In the longer run, however, BTC has the potential to become the most valuable asset class globally, even after experiencing a 50% erosion in its value.
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
SPX: optimistic in 2025?The last trading week for the S&P 500 passed in an optimistic sentiment, however, Friday's trading session decreased some of weekly gains. The index started the week at the level of 5.837, moved to the highest weekly level at 6.044, but ended the week at 5.970. The levels above the 6K could not hold. Analysts are noting that the US equity market could not sustain developments on the Treasury bonds market side. The 10Y US benchmark yields surged to the level of 4,6% on Friday. This came after concerns over US tariffs and future productivity. All sectors included in the S&P 500 posted daily losses on Friday, including the tech industry. TSLA shares were down by 4,5%. The major investment banks and companies provided some insights of their expectations for the US equity markets in the year 2025. The expectations are marked with policy uncertainties, especially taking into account the start of a new Presidency in the US and the market noise related to it. Considering uncertainties, some higher volatility might be in store for markets in 2025. Analysts from CITI bank are recommending to investors to turn their attention toward sectors with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Also they are pointing toward industries like health care, communication services and energy. Within the field of tech industry, CITI analysts are pointing toward the semiconductors industry sector. The biggest investment firm in the US BlackRock, provided their view on key topics for both US and emerging markets. One of the sentences noted in the document says “we see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption”, which describes nicely the sentiment of economic analysts regarding the Fed's past policy moves. Industries to which BlackRock analysts are pointing to are those related to further AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. With respect to macro developments, they expect that the Fed will further cut rates in 2025, while the jobs market will remain under pressure as well as US GDP growth. Based on analyst forecasts, the year 2025 will be marked with uncertainties. Certainly some volatility might be expected, but general trends on equity markets from 2024 are most probable to continue also through 2025.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
[Education] Stop Lying To Yourself About Your Trading DisciplineYou know exactly what's wrong. You've read all the books. Watched countless YouTube videos. You understand that discipline is crucial for trading success. Yet here you are, breaking your rules again. I lost $15,000 and blew over 20 prop firm challenges before I finally faced the brutal truth: Understanding the importance of discipline isn't enough. You need a system to force yourself to be disciplined. The Expensive Lessons of "Just One More Time" Let me share something embarrassing. Last year, I was trading a $200,000 funded account. My rules were simple: 1% risk per trade, no trading during news, no moving stop losses. One day, I was up 3% for the week. NFP was approaching. My position was in profit. "Just this one time," I told myself, "I'll hold through the news." You can guess what happened. The price started to go against me so fast that it slipped my stop loss. My stop loss got blown through. What should have been a 1% risk turned into a 4% loss. Just like that, I lost two months' worth of profits because I thought rules were meant to be broken. Why You Keep Breaking Your Rules (Even Though You Know Better) Let's be honest. You know you shouldn't move your stop losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t revenge trade after losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t risk more than 1-2% per trade, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t trade during major news events, but you do it anyway. Why? Because knowing isn't the same as doing. It's like going to the gym - everyone knows how to lose weight (eat less, move more), but knowing doesn't get you abs. The Real Reason You Lack Discipline Here's what I discovered after coaching dozens of traders: The problem isn't lack of discipline. It's having too much flexibility in your trading plan. Think about it: "Wait for confirmation" - But what exactly is confirmation? "Don't risk too much" - But what's too much? "Let winners run" - But how long should you let them run? Vague rules create room for interpretation. And where there's room for interpretation, there's room for breaking rules. The System That Forces Discipline After losing enough money, I developed what I call the "No-Choice Trading Framework." No choice, you gotta follow. Here's how it works: 1. Pre-Trade Rules (No Exceptions) Write exact entry price, stop loss, target, and your emotions BEFORE entering Screenshot your analysis Calculate position size using this formula: (Account size × 1%) ÷ Stop loss in pips Set alarms at entry levels No entering without completing all steps 2. During Trade Rules (Zero Flexibility) No looking at charts if using limit orders No moving stop losses for any reason other than breakeven No adding to positions No checking P&L until trade closes Phone must be in another room 3. Post-Trade Rules (Must Complete) Journal entry within 10 minutes of trade closing Score yourself on rule adherence (1-10) Screenshot final result Write what you'll do differently next time Implementing The Framework 1. Start With Small Size Trade 0.25% risk until you can follow rules for 20 straight trades Only increase to 0.5% after proving discipline Reach 1% risk only after 50 trades with perfect rule adherence 2. Create External Accountability Share your pre-trade checklist with a mentor Post your analysis before entering Join a community where discipline is valued over profits 3. Remove Temptations Delete trading apps from your phone Set up a separate trading computer Create a dedicated trading space Turn off P&L display The Uncomfortable Truth You're not going to like this, but you need to hear it: If you can't follow rules with a $1,000 account, you won't follow them with a $100,000 account. The only difference is that with a bigger account, your lack of discipline will cost you more money. I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts. The trades I take on a $200,000 account are exactly the same as the ones I take on a $10,000 account. The only difference is the position size. Your Next Steps Write down your exact trading rules (no vague statements) Create a checklist that must be completed for every trade Trade minimum size until you can follow rules perfectly Track your discipline score separately from your P&L Remember, the market doesn't care about your goals, your dreams, or your excuses. It only cares about whether you can execute your strategy with discipline. The choice is yours: Continue lying to yourself about "just this one time," or commit to building systems that force you to be disciplined.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj
SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve. In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States. Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009. While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown. Trade safe, Trader Leo
SP:SPX
by BTM-LEO
5
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Market SnapshotMUST READ!!!! All credits to Avi Gilburt and his team www.elliottwavetrader.net “Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story. Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”- Robert Prechter
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
1
SP50 / Bullish Momentum and Key Levels to WatchS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price retested the bearish correction we mentioned earlier, then pushed upward again and continued toward 6022. The S&P 500 has a bullish momentum aiming for 6022. To confirm the bullish area toward 6099, a 4-hour candle should close above 6022. Otherwise, as long as the price trades below 6022, it will likely oscillate between 6022 and 5971 until a breakout occurs. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5995 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099 Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919 Trend Outlook: Consolidation: Between 6022 and 5971 Bullish Trend: Above 6022
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi