bigger corrective range
Hello , trader,
This is my first sharing for 2025 where i forecast the direction of US indices.
Let's see how it plays out
Cheers!
NDX trade ideas
NASDAQ - 22/12/24 - LONGPrice has for the past weeks been on an uptrend, showing clear higher highs and higher lows. Looking for price to continue higher on the basis that last week's low was a new higher low. Additional confluences include a daily order block and price showing bullish momentum immediately after tapping.
To summarize, the idea is to just follow the trend. 1:3 RR
NASDAK 1HTFShort-term outlook:
Positive (bullish) scenario:
In case of a clear break and stability above 22,050, the upward momentum may continue towards 22,400 and then 22,600 levels.
Negative (bearish) scenario:
In case the price fails to stabilize above 22,000, a decline may occur towards the support levels at 21,600.
Recommendation:
Scalpers: Follow the price closely around 22,000 levels, and enter with confirmation of resistance breakout or wait for a bounce from support.
Investors: Maintain a positive outlook as long as the uptrend continues and higher highs and lows are formed
US100 Trade LogUS100 has reached the daily FVG , providing a short setup at the 0.5 level with at least "1:2 RRR" and 1% risk.
Any fill above the midpoint is ideal, aiming for a correction into the weekly Kijun .
Recent Fed hawkishness, softening global growth, and tightening liquidity support a downside move. Stops go just above the FVG high; ride the drop toward weekly support.
NAS 100 LONG UPDATEBrief video update on position being held for the week, price is showing signs of a further break out and push to the upside to fill the imbalance created during the flash sale we experience the week prior.
buys still look strong until proven otherwise; keeping in mind we could possibly reject this level to grab more liquidity short term to get the volume needed to create the break out.
Nasdaq 100 Wave Analysis 23 December 2024
- Nasdaq 100 reversed from strong support level 21000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 22000.00
Nasdaq 100 index recently reversed up from the strong support level 21000.00 (former resistance from the start of November), intersecting with the support trendline of the daily up channel from November and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October.
The upward reversal from the support level 21000.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-legged Doji.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq 100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 22000.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave i.
NAS100 Confirms Upside After Testing 1M PPHello,
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has tested the 1M PP, receiving sufficient support to push the price above the 1D PP. This confirms the potential for further upward movement.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Elliott Wave Analysis and Fibonacci Projections for US 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Elliott Wave Theory identifies 5 impulsive waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 corrective waves:
Impulse Waves (1-2-3-4-5): Main trend movement.
Corrective Waves (A-B-C): Countertrend correction.
2. Detailed Analysis of Observed Waves
Wave 1: Initial Upward Impulse
Definition: This is the first wave that initiates a new trend, driven by optimistic investors.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The bottom of Wave 1 is observed at 21,571.8, marking the trend’s starting point.
Wave 2: Correction of Wave 1
Definition: This wave corrects a portion of Wave 1, typically between 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracements.
Interpretation: The correction does not breach the starting point of Wave 1.
Observation:
Wave 2's correction stays above the critical support.
Wave 3: Strongest Impulse Wave
Definition: This is typically the longest and strongest wave, often extending 1.618 times Wave 1.
Key Features:
It surpasses the high of Wave 1 and creates a significant trend move.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The peak of Wave 3 is at 22,133.4, confirming a strong upward move.
Wave 4: Intermediate Correction
Definition: Wave 4 corrects part of Wave 3 but does not overlap with Wave 1’s territory.
Typical Retracement: Between 23.6% and 50% of Wave 3 (Fibonacci levels).
Observation:
The low of Wave 4 is seen at 21,946.8, aligning with a retracement between 38.2% and 50%, indicating a moderate pullback.
Wave 5: Final Impulse Wave
Definition: This wave continues the trend but is usually weaker than Wave 3.
Projection:
Fibonacci extensions project Wave 5 to end around 0.618x or 1.0x of the distance between Wave 1 and Wave 3.
Key Level on Your Chart:
Wave 5 is projected to reach 22,400 (based on a 61.8% extension).
3. Fibonacci Levels and Wave Validation
Fibonacci Retracements:
Wave 2: Corrects 38.2%–61.8% of Wave 1.
Wave 4: Corrects 23.6%–50% of Wave 3.
Fibonacci Extensions:
Wave 3: Often extends 1.618x the length of Wave 1.
Wave 5: Projected at 0.618x or 1.0x the total move of Wave 1–3.
4. Validating the Elliott Wave Scenario
To ensure the waves on your chart follow the Elliott Wave principles:
Wave 2 does not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 is not the shortest of the three impulsive waves (1, 3, 5).
Wave 4 does not overlap the territory of Wave 1.
5. Observations and Projections
Based on your key levels:
Wave 3 successfully formed a strong impulse at 22,133.4.
Wave 4 retraced to 21,946.8, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
Wave 5 is projected to reach approximately 22,400, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
6. Recommendations
Monitor Fibonacci levels to confirm Wave 5's target near 22,400.
Use indicators like RSI or MACD to detect divergences, signaling potential Wave 5 exhaustion.
Validate Elliott Wave rules to avoid misinterpretations.
iamtradingdon | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisWhile NAS100 CAPITALCOM:US100 continues to display a bullish trend, I closely monitor indicators suggesting a likely bearish shift. The price has been rejected by an uptrend line, marking this area as a significant institutional resistance zone. If the price drops and a bearish candle closes below 22180, I will establish my target at 21800.
Nasdaq 100: Sustained Uptrend with Strong Momentum SignalsChart Analysis: The Nasdaq 100 has maintained a steady uptrend after rebounding from its August low, respecting a rising trendline (black) and staying above key moving averages. Here's a breakdown of the key observations:
1️⃣ Trendline Support:
The price has respected the ascending black trendline, acting as dynamic support during pullbacks. This showcases strong bullish commitment.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Projection:
The price is approaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (around 22,694), a potential area for traders to watch closely for reaction. Extensions like this often serve as resistance in trending markets.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue) remains upward sloping, while the 200-day SMA (red) confirms a long-term bullish structure.
Price action staying well above these averages signals continued strength.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Nearing 70, indicating strong momentum, though traders may watch for overbought signals.
MACD: Bullish crossover continues, with rising histogram bars suggesting increasing buying pressure.
What to Watch:
Whether the price can sustain momentum towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level (~22,694).
A healthy pullback towards the trendline or the 50-day SMA could offer clues for continuation patterns.
Momentum indicators may warrant attention for short-term overbought conditions.
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly in an uptrend with bulls firmly in control. A break and hold above the Fibonacci extension would signal potential for further gains. Keep an eye on volume and momentum as price nears key levels.
-MW
NAS100USD: Capitalizing on Bearish Displacement!Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the M15 timeframe shows a recent shift to bearish price action, marked by significant displacement to the downside. This displacement provides strong evidence of institutional sell order distribution, as seen in the large bearish candles that led to a bearish break of structure.
Key Observations:
1. Premium Price Retracement:
After the bearish break, price retraced into deep premium levels, where institutional arrays are present.
These premium zones offer opportunities to seek confirmations for selling toward discount prices.
2. Breaker Block as a Key Zone:
Price has retraced into a premium breaker block, a critical mitigation zone.
What is a Breaker Block?
Breaker blocks are mitigation zones created as institutions mitigate losses from opposing orders placed during the prior trend.
Once price retraces to these zones, institutions close those losing positions and reinstate new orders to align with the prevailing trend.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for confirmation at the premium breaker block to align with institutional order flow.
Target: The primary target is the liquidity pool in discount prices, adhering to the principle of selling in premium and booking profits in discount zones, mirroring institutional strategies.
If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s analyze, learn, and succeed together!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
USNAS100/ Decline from NEW HIGHTechnical Analysis
The Nasdaq is currently attempting to rise above its previous resistance level of 21,770. If successful, it is expected to reach a new high of 21,900 before initiating a gradual decline. After peaking at 21,900, the index is projected to step down, revisiting the 21,770 level. A break below this point may lead to further declines, with targets at 21,620, 21,535, and eventually 21,420.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21420
Resistance Levels: 21770, 21880, 22000
Support Levels: 21,675, 21,535, 21420
US100 | 30M | SCALPING TIME Hi guys, I made CAPITALCOM:US100 analysis for you. For this kind of analysis, please value my analysis with your likes Thank you very much to everyone who supports me by liking
SIGNAL ALERT
SELL US100 21,726.5 - 21,730.1
🟢TP1: 21,700,9
🟢TP2: 21,670,1
🟢TP3: 21,600,1
🔴SL: 21,831,8
Stay with love guys.
Bullish momentum to extend?USTEC is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 21,631.48
1st Support: 21,398.63
1st Resistance: 21,909.69
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Approaching important resistance -161.8% (LOG)We are closing on important channel resistance and 161.8 extension from the previous high in November 2021. RSI 14 shows close to overbought. I expect a strong and healthy pullback to the bottom of the channel, but this correction could take a long time and drag to 2026.
NAS100 NAS100 price is still in a strong uptrend, but we expect that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will correct in the 22195-22247 zone. If the price cannot break through the 22247 level, the price may decline. Consider selling in the red zone.
*Very Risky Trade
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>>GooD Luck 😊
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Us Nas 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
NAS 23K by end of January 2025Hello Traders,
Using Fibs and trend channel I predict NAS will hit around 23K by the end of January. I also expect this to be a local top.
Let's see what happens.. Stay tuned.
USNAS100 / Bullish Momentum...Technical Analysis
The price still trades at the bullish area, it seems to continue in the bullish area toward 22020 especially if it closes 1h candle above 21900.
So as long as trades above 21770 and 21900, it will be bullish to get 22020 and 22200.
Otherwise, it should break 21770 to be a bearish trend till 21630.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21900
Resistance Levels: 22020, 22200, 22450
Support Levels: 21770, 21620, 21520
Trend Outlook:
- Consolidation between 21770 and 21900
- Bearish Momentum with stability below 21530
- Bullish Momentum by stability above 21900
US100 o heading 23000Based on Elliot wave , we are in the Wave 5. Seems like the price will break 23000.
NAS100USD
1)Shorting NAS100USD,pivots strategy shows its at a resistance area/level
2)trend analysis show it at key area to of resistance aswell
US 100 Index – Fed to Bring Christmas Cheer or Fear?The US 100 has been on a roll over the last 2 weeks adding around 800 points or about 3.5% since its opening level of 20,950 on Monday December 2nd.
This week however, the US 100’s December rally faces a tough test on Wednesday in the form of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (1900 GMT) and the Press Conference led by Chairman Jerome Powell (1930 GMT).
Ahead of these events, it’s not so much the actual interest rate decision that stock index traders are nervous about, as the Fed are widely expected to cut rates another 25bps (0.25%) at this meeting.
Their concerns are focused on whether recent resilient US economic data, sticky inflation readings and Trump taking office are enough for Fed policymakers to feel the need to slow the pace of rate cuts as markets move into 2025.
Constituents of the US 100 index, often known as growth stocks, can be more sensitive to US interest rate changes, so this latest Fed meeting may have important implications for the US 100 index.
This could well determine if the Tech sector is to see Christmas cheer in the shape of a ‘Santa rally’, or if the Fed Grinch is set to install fear and uncertainty into traders during the final 2 weeks of 2024.
Technical Backdrop:
Of course, it has already been a strong advance since the August 5th spike low, but what are the levels we can monitor into and over the announcement?
Resistance Points to Watch
While it has been a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows in price for the US 100 index, resistance has been found at the trendline connecting highs since August 1st, which continued to limit last week’s attempts at strength. This line starts the new week at 21833, and the daily closing defence of this level will be watched closely.
Successful closing breaks above this level, while not a guarantee of future price strength, may see a further phase of upside moves, once again pushing into uncharted territory of new all-time highs.
Fibonacci extension measurements of the November 11th to November 19th correction, offers a possible first resistance level after the trendline, marked by the 38.2% extension at 22151. This may prove to be a stumbling block to any future advance, but if breached price activity could possibly test 23010, the higher 61.8% level.
Support Levels
If corrective themes emerge either into, or after the Fed announcement, a first support level to focus on could be 21286, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 19th to December 13th strength. While this type of level has in the past limited price weakness, it may not again, but traders could be looking for this area to limit declines once more.
If this first retracement support is unsuccessful in holding any weakness in price, the uptrend connecting the lows since August 5th downside extremes, currently stands at 21111. In the past this level has been able to hold and reverse selling pressure, so daily closes below this level, may be a sign of further price weakness materialising.
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