6-11 US500:Due to clarity around the elections, there is massive trading in shares again. We take a buy position at 5,933. The MACD does indicate a trend change, but we remain cautious.
SPCUSD trade ideas
6-11 Nas100: elections have been so all positions can be taken again. that can be seen on the Nas100. we have taken a small position at 20,790.
Post-Election Price Momentum: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosTechnical Analysis
Following Trump’s success in the U.S. election, the price is poised to reach new highs after breaking its previous all-time high (ATH).
Bullish Scenario: If the price maintains stability above 5891, it is likely to target 5939 initially. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close above 5939 would further reinforce the bullish momentum, with a potential upward move toward 6002.
Bearish Scenario: Sustained stability below 5891 may trigger a downward move, with an initial target of 5863. Should a 4-hour candle close below 5863, it could confirm entry into a new bearish phase.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5900
Resistance Levels: 5939, 5980, 6002
Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5803
Trend outlook: Uptrend
S&P500: Rising Wedge targeting 6,000 short term.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.812, MACD = 16.490, ADX = 32.155) as it maintains the Rising Wedge pattern that started on August 5th. The critical formation though is on the 1H timeframe and it is the Golden Cross that was just completed. All three Golden Crosses inside the Rising Wedge saw significant gains after they were formed. In fact they posted rallies far greater than the push prior to the Golden Cross, which means that we can currently see a move the will break above the Rising Wedge. Until then though, we have to follow the strict levels that this pattern provides us and on the short term we are targeting the top of the pattern and 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,000).
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The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event.
The Market’s Independence from Political Events
There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community.
The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations.
Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction
The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome.
This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement.
The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles
At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market.
Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events.
This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events.
Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path
To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology.
For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction.
In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
US500 morning analysisTechnical analysis for US500.
Impulse from 5 August 2024 low playing out.
Bears see price stopping below 6197 to complete wave (5).
Bulls see extended impulse and median line of pitchfork as target.
Bulls and Bears zone for 11-06-2024Yesterday's rally has continued into ETH session and market will open with a big gap up.
Therefore, we might see traders taking profit after such a gain in a day.
Level to watch: 5932 --- 5930
SPX targeting 5990 before correctionIn my view SPX is now forming the head of an inverse head and shoulder pattern targeting 5990 in mid november
SPY I Bullish rally and more continued growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** SPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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SPX500USD Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,779.8.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,887.5 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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S&P 500 BUY ANALYSIS DOUBLE BOTTOM Here on S&P 500 price just form double bottom and has broken line 5781.3 which means there is a chance of rising more and trader should go for LONG with expected profit target of 5815.6 and 5854.6 . Use money management
S&P 500 Change of CountsThe new high made during this election day has made me change the count. A reader of my post did comment and share a link on this new count which I did have in a couple of my posts, but I have to admit a mistake as a mistake and a bias as a bias.
Now that S&P has made a new high, we must have a new target. Based on Elliott Wave, there IS A MAXIMUM target of 6208.5 based on Oanda CFD. This is because wave 3 is currently the shortest wave and that is not allowed in EW (the alternative is that this wave 3 is actually wave 1 of 3). But any price below 6208.5 is good as a peak. We have to wait until wave structure firms up before making another call.
Comparing S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average YTD ChangeThis chart compares the S&P 500 index to the Down Jones Industrial Average index YTD Change which is to be used for FNCE 303 assignment #2
Down Jones Industrial Average YTD ChangeThis chart highlights the Down Jones Industrial Average YTD Change to be used for FNCE 303 assignment #2
Elliott Wave View Calling for S&P 500 (SPX) to Extend HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 (SPX) suggests rally from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5651.6 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5402.6. Index then extended higher in wave 3 towards 5878.4 as 45 minutes chart below shows. Wave 4 pullback unfolded as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 5821.17 and rally in wave (b) ended at 5863.04. Wave (c) lower ended at 5762.4 which completed wave ((a)) in higher degree.
Bounce in wave ((b)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (a) ended at 5817.8 and wave (b) ended at 5784.92. Wave (c) higher ended at 5862.8 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree. Index resumed lower in wave ((c)). Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 5802.17 and wave (ii) ended at 5850.94. Wave (iii) lower ended at 5702.8 and wave (iv) ended at 5772.5. Final leg wave (v) ended at 5696.06 which completed wave ((c)) of 4. The Index has turned higher in wave 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 5696.09 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher.
SPX500USD M15 Not Perfected SetupSpoken about the not Perfected Setup… where the highest of the sixth and seventh candle It’s not superseded by the highest of the eighth or ninth candle.
So you can expect that in the next 3 to 5 candles, the Setup high (Also, the highest of the sixth or seventh candle) should be superseded before retracement proper.
They noted in this chart that the purple box should be broken into and above.
Let’s watch the demonstration…
Us500 long signal using supply and demand Spx is on a bull run throughout 2024 , the bet is for the index to move higher catalyzed by us elections which iam using as tailwind to propel it higher ( the election might turn out to be a headwind who knows )
Price is at weekly demand and the daily trendline is broken.
A fibonacci extension target is above.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis 5 November 2024
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5850.00
S&P 500 index earlier reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 5695.00 (which reversed the index for 7 consecutive days at the start of October) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
This support area was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from the start of September.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 5850.00 (former minor resistance from the end of October).
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,735.3.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,643.6.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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SPX500 Will Fall!FOREXCOM:SPX500 is trading in a
Downtrend and the indice
Is making a pullback
From the horizontal resistance
Of 5771.33 from where
We will be expecting a
Further move down !
SPx / Bearish Momentum Awaits Retest, Key Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis
The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,755 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643.
Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,734. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,734 could activate the next bearish zone.
Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850.
Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5734
Resistance Levels: 5755, 5781, 5803
Support Levels: 5715, 5675, 5643
