SPCUSD trade ideas
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone.
To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low.
Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out.
Now, we wait and see how this movie ends!
Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
S&P 500 - Why everyone is probably wrong.Popular YouTube channels, financial media, everyone is talking about the great big crash of 2023 to come.
Everyone is probably wrong. Why? The chart stupid.
The recent breakout of resistance is seen by many as a bull trap. Maybe. I see a backtest of past resistance and price action landing on the golden ratio. There’s something else, however. The Life cross. A life cross is defined as:
1) The 50-day SMA crossing up the 200-day SMA
AND
2) Price action above the 200-day SMA.
But WW this cross is a fake out! There’s no evidence to support that. Have studied the last 60 years of life crosses on the index. Do you know how many printed a false signal? 0. Nadda. Not one.
Ww
The last 20 years of life crosses..
July 8th, 2020
April 1st 2019
April 26th, 2016
February 1st, 2012
October 22nd, 2010
June 20th, 2009
September 12th 2006
November 10th, 2004
May 16th, 2003
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone,
Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community!
As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such.
One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as:
a) It is not inflation adjusted,
b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time,
c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range.
You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as:
a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years,
b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model,
c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down.
So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data?
Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances.
To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history.
Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%.
Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%.
How about normal, bull market years?
To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode.
First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain.
Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%!
Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close!
So what does this tell us?
Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years:
Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now!
The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following:
The mode is 15% and the median is 24%.
So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it.
Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years.
However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64.
I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell:
SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%.
SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%.
SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY:
Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15
Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67.
One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible?
This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move.
Safe trades everyone!
WAVE 5 of 5 of 3 topping NOW I did say 5935 to 6012 as focus The alt based on MATH is 6118 to 6211 BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT IN CYCLE BULL I am 101 % long in the money PUTS and do not fear it !!! NYSI has now formed a HOOK !!!
$SPX #SPX S&P 500 at a "Great Depression" time resistance.1929 High, .com High two of the biggest corrections in US Stock Market history and we are at that resistance.
SPY Chart:
US500 SMART MONEY PLAY Smart Money Play for US500
The setup suggests a potential for continuation in the primary uptrend but warns of possible near-term exhaustion. This strategy focuses on monitoring support levels during a pullback to position for a high-probability entry in line with the trend.
1. Identify Key Support Levels for Potential Pullback
• Daily HVN Nodes: The daily HVN nodes at 5831 and 5710 represent strong support zones. If price retraces to these levels, they are likely to act as points of buying interest, especially if aligned with bullish indicators on lower timeframes.
• 4-Hour Ichimoku Conversion Line: Currently, price is testing the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line. A sustained hold at this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown could open the door for a deeper pullback.
2. Monitor ADX and DI for Trend Continuation or Exhaustion
• Daily ADX: With an ADX of 22 and positive DI above negative DI, the daily trend is bullish but not overly strong, suggesting room for a potential continuation if support holds.
• 4-Hour ADX: The 4-hour ADX at 50, with the ADX line well above both +DI and -DI, indicates possible trend exhaustion. This level, combined with bearish divergence on the RSI, suggests that a pullback or consolidation phase is likely before the trend resumes.
3. RSI and MFI as Momentum Indicators
• Daily RSI: The daily RSI at 66 remains bullish but could retreat to 50-60 on a pullback while maintaining trend strength. A hold above 50 on the daily RSI would support re-entry at a favorable level.
• 4-Hour MFI: With MFI rolling down from 80 to 74, it signals a reduction in buying pressure, consistent with an expected pullback.
4. Short-Term Signals on Lower Timeframes
• 2-Hour MACD: The dark red bearish signal on the 2-hour MACD is an early warning for a short-term correction. If MACD starts to turn green after a dip, it could provide an entry signal.
• 4-Hour RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI further supports a potential pullback. Waiting for a correction here before entering would minimize risk.
Trade Ideas
1. Pullback Entry for Long Continuation:
• Entry: Consider entering long near the HVN nodes at 5831 or 5710 if price stabilizes. Look for bullish signals on the 2-hour or 4-hour MACD and RSI to confirm that buyers are returning.
• Stop-Loss: Place stops just below 5710 to account for volatility but avoid exposure if the pullback deepens.
• Target: Aim for an initial move back towards the upper Bollinger Band on the daily (around 6000+) or even higher if the trend resumes strongly.
2. Alternative Short on Short-Term Weakness:
• Entry: Consider a short position if price fails to hold the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line, aiming for a target near the daily HVN nodes (5831 or 5710).
• Stop-Loss: Tight stop just above the recent high at 5973, minimizing risk.
• Target: Look for a retracement to the 5831 node, where support may resume.
Summary of Smart Money Play
1. Trend Bias: Bullish overall but with caution for near-term exhaustion.
2. Setup: Wait for pullback confirmation to key support for a low-risk entry.
3. Entry Trigger: Use MACD and RSI on lower timeframes to confirm a resumption of buying pressure on pullbacks.
4. Risk Management: Stops below support for long positions and tight stops above recent highs for shorts, targeting the daily upper Bollinger Band on continuation or HVN nodes on retracement.
US500 Bearish Trend in Coming DaysI am looking Bearish Trend of Us500 in Coming Days, Monthly Candle Sweep Previous Candle.
S&P500 (Bearish Correction Amid Fed impact)Technical Analysis
The price has risen approximately 210 pips, as mentioned yesterday.
Today, as long as trades remain below 5989, a drop toward 5931 is expected, followed by consolidation between 5931 and 5989 until a breakout.
Alternatively, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5989, it would signal bullish momentum with a potential move towards 6021.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5989
Resistance Levels: 6002, 6021
Support Levels: 5950, 5931, 5891
Trend Outlook: Bearish Correction
previous idea:
Another S&P 500 channelSo here is another channel. The July peak made an extension of this channel, and the price didn't arrive to that extended part neither at the top nor at the bottom since then. Even if the price will arrive to that extended part at the top of the channel, it won't reach 6000 before the elections unless it makes a breakout in the upward direction thus making a new extension. Maybe it will reach 6000 after the elections. But I think that a more likely scenario is the price hitting the bottom of the channel first.
Also I suggest that the price will go on a small correction now to 5650 support area, hit the trendline and make a new wave to 5800. And then we might see a good correction. If it won't go that way, perhaps this channel will be helpful in your analysis.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions 11.07.2024🔮
⏰10:00am
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
⏰11:00am
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
⏰2:30pm
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11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision.
While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck).
⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located.
⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925.
⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election.
The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry.
There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV.
Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this.
⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too.
10/28 SPX
10/21 SPX
10/14 SPX
10/28 QQQ
10/14 QQQ
S&P500: Make no mistake. The bull is far from over yet.The S&P500 index may be overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.424, MACD = 27.270, ADX = 58.374), even on the 1M timeframe (RSI = 73.014) but the monthly rally is far from over. This isn't only due to the post election euphoria but also for technical reasons. Those have to do with SPX's long term cycles and as this chart shows, every 3.3 years the index tops and starts to correct until it reaches the 1M MA50, where the long term buy signal is flashed again.
The 1M RSI also helps on long term buy entries as it has a clear Buy Zone, but the same goes for selling (Sell Zone). The sell validation usually comes after a LH trendline is formed. The Time Cycles tool indicates that we can start consider selling after May 2025, so regardless of how high the price is, we will time our selling accordingly.
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SPX short ideaSPX is targeting 5978 1.4 fiboncci level I expect about 450pts correction to 0.786 fibonacci level before bullish trend restarts to target 6260 area in 2025
S&P 500: 96 year old resistanceWorking our way up to a resistance line that has never been broken. Are we entering a new age of AI and abundance? Or not yet? Or not at all?
Avg lvls for SPY:600, SPX:6000Continuing with the recent brief analysis on TLT:
The US stock market will inevitably face challenges when the clashes between populism and reality come to the forefront. Over the next 3 years, I expect SPY average price to maintain around the 600 level and for SPX it is 6,000.
S&P 500 Eyes New Highs: 43 ATHs and CountingTechnical Analysis
The price has pushed up as we mentioned yesterday and is still moving toward a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, the S&P 500 has recorded 43 ATHs this year and continues to reach new highs.
As long as it trades above 5931, it is likely to reach 6002 before starting a bearish trend.
Alternatively, if the price drops from here and closes a 4-hour candle below 5931, it will support a bearish move toward 5891.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5933
Resistance Levels: 5985, 6002
Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5815
Trend outlook: Uptrend
previous idea:
The Trump Effect: S&P 500 Hits New Highs! What's Next?The market's momentum has taken the S&P 500 to fresh highs, but where do we go from here?
🤔 Here are the key resistance points to watch:
🔹 First hurdle: 2-month resistance at 5975 🔹 Psychological level: 6000, a tougher barrier 🔹 2024 resistance: Around 6070-6090 – likely to be a strong test 🔹 Major milestone: The top of a long-term channel on a logarithmic chart (since 2009), not reached until 6750!
Eyes on the charts as we navigate these critical levels. 📊
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Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way?Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way?
Currently, the European and American indices are approaching all-time highs.
Right now, the chances of the market losing 5% are much higher than the reverse.
One of the main drivers of the rise in U.S. stocks is Nvidia, which recently ranked first as the highest value stock in the world.
Nvidia continues to be a dominant force in the technology market. However, investors may not be paying attention to the warning signs: the company recently reported weak guidance for the next quarter and the revenue growth rate is slowing. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is currently at 34, which is extremely high and could indicate a speculative bubble situation.
Are the tech giants influencing the market?
Let us continue with the example of Apple, one of the biggest players in the technology market. Early reviews for the new I-Phone 16 with Gen AI seem negative, which could lead to a possible failure of the product. At the same time, financial data show a PE ratio of 34 and revenue growth of 0.43 percent year-over-year, which seems unrealistic. These factors combined could be seen as signs of a rapidly expanding bubble.
However, among the tech giants, Microsoft has suffered the most significant impact. After losing its investment in OpenAI and facing challenges such as dependence on Nvidia's infrastructure and other artificial intelligence issues, it was recently downgraded to third place.
The recent growth of the S&P 500 is largely driven by the Gen AI theme, thanks to the important contribution of mega caps such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. However, this dependence on large companies cannot last: they are overvalued and their growth is slowing. A healthier balance in the index is needed for sustainable growth.
Vix and Germany send warning signals
The economic situation in Europe is not favorable, as shown by the recent negative unemployment figure in Germany. The German unemployment index measures changes in the number of people out of work in the country. This latest figure shows an upward trend, pointing to a weak labor market that has a negative impact on consumer spending and thus on overall economic growth.
Another important index to keep an eye on is the VIX, also known as the “fear index.” This volatility index is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500. When investors begin to worry about a possible stock market crash, they buy put options to protect themselves. This increases the demand for and prices of put options, and thus the VIX.
In general, when uncertainty is low, the VIX stays below 15, indicating a macroeconomically stable bullish market. However, at times of increased uncertainty or fear of a recession, the VIX rises above 20. This was evident during the market's most critical periods in 2000, 2008, and 2020.
Attention must be paid to the situation in the Middle East, as there are many unknowns. The worst case scenario is that Israel could attack Iran's energy infrastructure. This could lead to Iran retaliating by striking Israel's energy infrastructure and perhaps those of other oil-producing countries in the region. In either case, there would be a sharp rise in oil prices and the risk of a possible global recession, as happened in 1973.
In summary, I expect a modest market decline of about 5 percent in November, followed by new highs in December thanks to the markets' traditional Christmas rally.
If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” above. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
Bounce from June low or Return to the channel from 2008-9?Hello,
As always to my analysis, I cannot align myself to either bull or bear. Anyway. Here is my idea on SPX towards 2024.
After I've drawn upward trendlines from 2008-09 bottom and marking the bottom of RSI, I think SPX could bounce back at 3750 (Sep 2022) and test the record high towards 4800. This may be plausible because the market rallies after mid-term election (in the U.S.).
Of course the macro is cooling down and when the fundamentals are considered, the pricing of the each (many) equity is still historically expensive. With these regards, perhaps the market would move toward 3200 to make a good return to the rising channel from 2008.
Overall, FED has done terrific job to relief the damage from the pandemic. But maybe the monetary easing was little too much.
Thanks for reading!
I am not a professional but buy and hold investor. As many of you, I've lost quite a bit from the beginning of this year but anyways the journey continues.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead.
At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915.
Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
so where is the new top?most analysts i pay attention to dont try to put an exact top on moves like this. the reason being trend based indications dont work when there is a one sided trade. going above 6000 seems likely, but where it will go in the interim isnt clear. it doesnt need to be clear for maintanance on remaining long with the trend.
ive marked out the support and resistance in bull or bear terms based on POC.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Prediction for 11.06.2024⏰8:30am
Unemployment Claims
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Federal Funds Rate - 25 BPS
FOMC Statement
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FOMC Press Conference
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Consumer Credit m/m
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