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S%P500 The Bull Run Is EndingUsing a variety of technical methods as well as combining previous price movements and structure we can see that the S&P500 is very very close to a potential all time high and end of a bull run, of 6100 - potentially a push to 6450. Fundamentally, this coincides with the current landscape being set out by Trump, with his harsh tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Europe and China he is very likely going to cause bottleneck inflation. Combine this with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the yield curve uninverting, geopolitical risk and energy supply bottlenecks for the AI industry. I believe we are about to see 5000 hit potentially by the end of 2025. Stay alert, buying here is a HUGE risk. Personally, I would avoid shorting the S&P, but knowing when it will fall gives us the opportunity to put our capital elsewhere to make great returns that wont be effected by this bear season, ready to heavily invest once we see the S&P hit 5000.
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by PizzaExpress
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context 27.11 data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
S&P 500 HYPERWAVE CRASH The S&P 500 is currently going through a huge macro hyper-wave, this has been confirmed. This has already been calculated and factored into the 'algo', I'm highly confident we are approaching the final stages of 'wave 4' which will end in resumption to the downside (wave 5) and followed by the 'bounce' or 'wave 6'. After wave 6 has concluded, it's game over. Wave 7 will complete the hyper-wave and will be catastrophic to not only the markets but the economy by extension... please keep this in mind as when this all comes down we're entering something far worse than the 1929 crash and the great depression that followed.
SP:SPXShort
by BernerTrades
2
SPX macro analysis ⏰ Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of CBOE:SPX How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR Let's go with market conditions 1st 👉 PPL 📌 thinking 🤔 big crash in S&P500 , based on economy and some other theories I don't this things go , if this happens 😂 it will vanish not only stocks or companies even goverment also get vanish Money 💰 >> PPL work / save in -> gold , bank & stocks Money 💰 >> banks -> save in ->> gold , stocks & giving loan to company & PPL 📌 Money 💰 >> companies -> save in future growth 📈 give return to retailers and keep on increasing vlaue for future like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:AMD etc .... if stocks lose 📌 PPL lose 📌 if ppl lose 📌 goverment also lose 📌 biggest revaluation 😂 This is the major index ☝️ for many stocks , did you think 🤔 it will crash 🩸 that much harder 🙂 Use 🧠 👀 Let's go with my technical analysis ⏰ #TA ->> how I am expecting macro growth 💹 👀 There tend line 🙄 at previous High 2022 > to < 2023 which actually promised trend 📉 line and even turned as resistance 📌 for 1.2yr + Finally it was broken and re-test also done 👍 turned as support 📌 💜💚 🚀 👀 According technical analysis 📌 my analysis get Invalid 📌 when month close below $3800.2 👀 There was oder block strong 🚀 support 📌 in 3 - month $4000-4200 👀 The previous order block at $4300 & $4600 easily broken 😂 These and some other theories making me push towards new high 💰 Expecting target's 🎯 🎯 :: $4880-$5018 ( easy target ) 🎯 :: $5324-$5469 ( 💯 target ) 🎯 :: $5885-$6484 ( high pressure resistance ) Support 📌 $3900-4200 This is my analysis on S&P500 on macro , i will post other patterns and chart of technical as per education under this post 📌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊
SP:SPXLong
by raj5_7_5
Do bulls have anything left? crash on its waySo looking, at all the key indicies, there is a good probability of the market topping soon. If you take a fib retracement from the low of 2008 to the highs of 2020, before the covid crash. If you look at the 1.618 golden ratio, you will see that the markets are begining to see some resistance. Spx about to approch its 2 fib, and approaching 1 on the trend based fib extension. Im expecting a top soon, if not december then defintely in feb/mar
TVC:SPXShort
by stupidman12212
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated significant upward movement, successfully retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and maintaining its position above the Mean Resistance level of 6008. The primary objective is to reach the Outer Index Rally target of 6123, with the potential for further extension to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the Outer Index Rally target of 6123 is projected to induce a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6000, facilitating the bullish trend's next phase.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.36% gain today. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
2
US Equity Secular Bull Cycle, $SPX 24' Price Target, 2025 BeyondUS EQUITY S&P 500 INDEX BOHAN The S&P 500 Index SP:SPX monthly chart: Over the past 30 years, the US stock market has weathered the personal computer cycle, the dot-com bubble, the social media cycle, and the subprime mortgage crisis. The most recent epic crash was the 2020 pandemic. Since then, the US stock market has continued its secular bull cycle, fueled by quantitative easing (QE) that began in 2008. We saw a bull market from 2020-2021 driven by QE, a bear market in 2022 due to interest rate hikes, and now, in 2023-2024, we are entering the Web 3.0 and AI era. So, where is the next epic crash? And will there be another bull cycle after that? 1.) No one can accurately predict the market. The first step to improving your COGNITION is to grasp the rules of the human system. The essence of society is that the rich exploit the poor, and the essence of the stock market is that institutions exploit retail investors. Only market makers, institutions, and family offices know what's going on because they set the game, and we're just playing it. As retail investors, the best we can do is improve our cognition, conduct in-depth research on the US stock market, and arrive at high-probability answers. 2.) Understanding dollar dominance is key to understanding society. The US established a new world order, shifting societal control from religion to currency. Wars are fought to defend the dollar's status. After the gold standard was abolished, the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, effectively ruling the world. The long bull and short bear cycles in the US stock market rarely stem from fundamentals like earnings per share (EPS). They are mostly driven by the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) Cycles - printing money, issuing bonds, having debtor nations foot the bill, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Therefore, the US equity market is essentially a liquidity platform. Unless there's a World War III, US assets are the only ones suitable for long-term investment due to currency dominance. Invest long-term, dollar-cost average, and if there's an epic crash, keep buying the dip. 3.) S&P 500 (SPX) target price for the end of 2024: 6200+ Macros: The Fed's broad money supply (M2) is still growing, and QE continues. Fundamentals: Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by the AI era. Technical: A 4-year weekly uptrend channel since 2020, plus institutional positioning JPMorgan's JPM Collar Positions: STO SPX 6055 C DEC 21 @$50.00 + x 39600) indicates significant buying pressure. 4.) Expecting a pullback in 2025, but the secular bull market will persist. Macros: Short-term cyclical factors like tariffs might have an impact, but the long-term trend remains intact due to continued QE. Fundamentals: Big tech valuations might become more reasonable, especially Nvidia. However, long-term EPS for Nvidia could reach $4.00, and overall corporate earnings growth remains strong. Technical: The 4-year weekly uptrend channel might encounter resistance, and the JPM Collar positions could see a shift from buying to selling. However, significant open interest in SPX options with high gamma at 6300, 6500, and 7000 suggests institutional bullishness for mid-2025. Even with a 15% to 20% correction, we should continue to buy the dip, as the secular bull cycle is expected to persist. 5.) The secular bull cycle is projected to last from 2008 to 2030. An epic crash might occur at the end of this cycle, followed by another major bull market. The potential cause of the crash would be the end of QE and a resulting liquidity crisis. This is speculation, of course, but the principle of dollar dominance suggests that as long as US hegemony remains, any crash presents a buying opportunity. *The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
SP:SPXLong
by BOHAN94
S&P 500: A +0.2% Gain Following a Day of DeclineS&P 500: A +0.2% Gain Following a Day of Decline The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.2% gain today, recovering some ground after yesterday’s 0.5% decline. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Yesterday’s data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
SPX in H1 chart (a complementary discussion). Hello I just published my EW idea about the next movements of SPX and this idea is to say something else. Some of you think that why I do not publish lower timeframes for SPX. I did it to show you what happens in lower timeframes in an INDEX chart like SPX. If you dive down in Stock market you realize that these charts can work in lower timeframes (I am talking in the aspect of EW) but i never recommend trading in small timeframes (Intraday Charts) just reliant on EW. I myself use Volume Trading for intraday trading to get my entry points and you can find your favourite but do not forget that EW is not to find entry points. What EW can do for you is unique and there is no other techniques in the world that can do something like that but this is not for getting positions. Please do appropriate techniques for every part of your trade. Dogmatism can destroy your trades. This chart is an obvious impulse for now but we need something else more than EW principles to enter in a right time with the best price. Thanks
FX:SPX500Short
by AMA_FX
S&P 500 Analysis: ATH Tested, Key Levels for Next MoveS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price reached the resistance line and Recorded a new ATH, at 6034 Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above 6030, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, would signal bullish momentum, with potential targets at 6068. Bearish Scenario: Sustained trading below 6030 could pave the way for further downside targets at 5970 and 5932. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6022 Resistance Levels: 6068, 6100, 6120 Support Levels: 5970, 5932, 5896
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 / US500 Index Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist SPX500 / US500 Index Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback. Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Thief_Trader
S&P 500: A -0.5% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data S&P 500: A -0.5% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.5% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior. US Economic Data Highlights - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the S&P 500, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments. Broader Context Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 The S&P 500’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term. Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestMate
1
Is SPX500 Poised for an Upward Movement?OANDA:SPX500USD Daily Chart Current Price: 5,812.8 Analysis: Falling Broadening Wedge: Upon analysing the daily chart, the price is forming a Falling Broadening Wedge pattern, which typically indicates a continuation of the prevailing trend. This pattern often suggests increasing volatility, leading to a potential bullish breakout if the price breaches resistance levels. Support Levels: • 5,703.1 • 5,625.0 Resistance Levels: • 5,937.5 • 6,015.6 • 6,097.0 Happy Trading! Stay tuned for further updates and insights.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SpicyPips
1