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SP500 trade ideas

Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets. Topics Covered: How Are Interest Rates Traded? Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself). █ How Are Interest Rates Traded? This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market. Key Strategy Concepts Backtested: Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism. Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth. Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons. █ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods. 2001-2009 Trade Result: 67.02% Holding Result: -31.19% 2019-2021 Trade Result: 19.28% Holding Result: 25.22% 1971-Present Trade Result: 444.13% Holding Result: 5694.12% █ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92% █ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54% █ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below. One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change. █ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself) Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open): The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
SP:SPXEducation
by TanHef
S&P 500, More Gains Coming... S&P 500 Closes at Record Highs The S&P 500 index closed at all-time highs on Monday as markets assessed comments from three Federal Reserve officials regarding the central bank's recent monetary policy decisions. Technically: The S&P 500 has reached the bullish target we previously identified, Now The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH, provided the price remains above 5731 and 5708. However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5675. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5730 - 5708 Resistance Levels: 5784, 5805, 5890 Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5621 Trend Outlook: Bullish Trend: Above 5730 and 5708 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise: This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears). Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming. This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg. We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Sept 25 Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow Easy Trading Range here today, much easier than QQQ, lol, that one is a mess… but here we have an easy one… the implied move for tomorrow is between 568 to 574 and the only two levels in tomorrow’s implied move are ATH’s at 572.88 and the 35EMA, which is a clear support since after FOMC… Personally looking at 5765/5775 bear call spreads OR 5700/5690 bull put spreads depending on how we move tomorrow GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
US500 Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,730.5. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,946.0. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
1
SPX: positive but mixedThe market was highly anticipating the Fed's rate cut during their September FOMC meeting, but the 50 bps cut came as a sort of surprise. This is why the US equity markets were traded generally positive for the week, however, in a slightly mixed manner, like without a final conclusion whether the 50 bps was a good or bad move from the Fed. The S&P 500 started the week around the level of 5.610, and reached 5.727 at Thursday trading session, however, ending the week at the level of 5.702. The index posted a weekly gain of 1,36%. The high rate cut was perceived positively by investors. They perceive that a lower interest rate environment will be supportive for businesses. Tech companies were the ones to gain, but also other industries. Analysts are now adjusting forecasts in terms of expectations that the S&P 500 companies will expand their earnings by 4,6% in the Q3.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top. If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one. If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
SP:SPXShort
by justaturboman44
S&P500: Aiming at 6,000 before the elections.The S&P500 index is on a very healthy bullish technical 1D outlook (RSI = 64.688, MACD = 69.140, ADX = 44.589) which indicates that the rebound that started on the September 6th low should be extended. The volatility on the 4H RSI indicates that as long as the 4H MA200 supports, we will see a rally similar to June's and in fact we should symmetrically be on a same level as the June 14th consolidation. We are aiming for the -0.618 Fibonacci extension like June's rally (TP = 6,000) before the U.S. elections. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope