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S27 trade ideas

S&P Bulls Hold Strong, But Is a Market Cooldown Coming?Last week wasn't particularly remarkable. Despite two bearish attacks (on Tuesday and Thursday), buyers still managed to push the market to a new historical high. It was somewhat concerning that they couldn’t sustain the high for even an hour after the open, but since the bearish movement didn’t gain momentum on Friday, the bulls still have the upper hand. We may see some consolidation in the upcoming weeks, as there are signs that the rally is approaching exhaustion (weakening of upthrust, weekly RSI entering the overbought zone, weakness in XLK). However, this market has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience and ability to exceed expectations. The long-term outlook remains bullish, but given these signals, it would be prudent for buyers to downsize their positions and refrain from selling PUTs. Mind TSLA report on Wednesday as it can cause some volatility and act as a trigger.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
Are we setting up for a 5-10% pullback pre-election?AMEX:SPY looks exhausted here and everyone is extremely bullish at the highs. Sentiment is at extremes and we have demark combo 13s that triggered at the end of last week. On top of that, we've been moving up in a rising wedge that looks set to break down. Also, if we look at the chart, there's an imbalance in price action as we have largely gone straight up since the August 5th low and the area I've highlighted hasn't been retested at support. All this leads me to believe that we should see a 5-10% pullback in the next couple of weeks prior to the election. Why in the next two weeks? From a candlestick perspective, we're starting a new 2D, 3D, 2W, 3W candle today which leaves the possibility open of a trend change to start today. I expect the move to play out before the election. I'm playing this idea solely through volatility calls which I averaged into Wednesday-Friday last week. Let's see if it plays out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
SPY Technical Analysis for Oct. 21, 2024Technical Analysis Overview Trendline and Ascending Channel: SPY appears to be respecting an ascending triangle pattern, as shown by the diagonal trendlines sloping upwards. It is consolidating near the upper boundary (around 586.30), which could signal potential strength if it breaks through. This is often seen as a bullish continuation pattern. Support and Resistance Levels: 586.30: Acting as a key resistance level, tested multiple times without a breakout yet. A break above this could open up new highs. 584.81: A visible support level within the range. If this level holds, it would confirm buyer interest. 583.84 and 582.35: Additional nearby supports; a move below these levels could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially dragging SPY towards 578.55-578.53 (lower support zone). Volume and Order Blocks: There's a volumized order block (green zone) sitting between 582–584. This suggests significant buying activity in that zone, providing a buffer for price to bounce higher if tested. MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram and signal lines show a mild bullish crossover below the zero line, hinting that momentum might be shifting towards the bulls but still lacks strength. The bars indicate weak momentum, suggesting that SPY might need a catalyst for stronger movement. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Case: If SPY breaks above 586.30 with volume, expect a possible run-up towards 590. Bearish Case: If it fails to hold 584.81, a drop towards the lower support levels (582 or 578) is likely. Breaking below 578 would shift the bias towards bearish. My Thoughts & Strategic Viewpoint: Given the narrowing price action, SPY looks poised for a breakout or breakdown soon. I would lean towards bullish bias, given the upward trendline and multiple touches on resistance. However, the lack of strong volume and a weakening MACD suggests that the breakout may not be explosive without more volume or a fundamental trigger (e.g., economic news or earnings). For scalping, I’d suggest: Entry on breakout above 586.30, ideally with volume confirmation. Stop loss just below 584.81 to manage risk. A short trade opportunity might arise on rejection from resistance or a breakdown below 583.84, aiming for the 582-578 zone. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to manage your risk appropriately. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor if needed.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear subscribers, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 584.57 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 577.22 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
3
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week. #SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red). The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55. If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path. If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9 Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16. A true MSS comes at 565 break. Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE! #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
SPY EOY AnalysisAs we approach the end of the year, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) appears to be trading within defined expected ranges, according to the provided data. This week-by-week analysis is particularly useful for traders and investors looking to optimize their risk management strategies and position sizing. Here’s an overview of key metrics and their importance: The **Kelly Ratio** is a widely-used formula to determine the optimal portion of capital to allocate to each trade. This ratio is especially valuable for traders looking to strike the right balance between risk and reward. For example, in the current week (Week 42), the Kelly ratio of 0.3068 indicates that about 30% of available capital could be allocated to this position, assuming optimal risk management based on expected returns. By examining this ratio weekly, investors can adjust their exposure depending on how favorable market conditions are. A higher Kelly ratio indicates better opportunities, while a lower ratio calls for a more conservative approach. The **Adjusted Kelly Fraction** is a fine-tuned version of the Kelly ratio that takes into account additional constraints like risk tolerance or market liquidity. In the current week, this fraction is 0.1767, which is more conservative than the Kelly ratio, suggesting that adjustments for risk aversion or other factors have been made. Tracking this weekly allows investors to stay flexible and manage risk more effectively, adapting to changing market conditions. The **Tail Ratio** measures the likelihood of extreme market movements. For Week 42, the tail ratio is 0.79, suggesting that the chances of a large, unexpected price movement are somewhat contained. A low tail ratio signals that the market might experience higher volatility or extreme price swings, and tracking this metric over time helps identify when market stability or instability might occur. **Volatility** (%) is another critical factor, indicating the magnitude of price swings within each week. In the current analysis, volatility fluctuates between 2.16% and 3.38% in the weeks ahead. Higher volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which might present opportunities for traders using strategies that profit from large movements, such as straddles or strangles. Lower volatility suggests a more stable market, ideal for time-decay strategies like credit spreads. **Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)** is a risk management tool that estimates potential losses during extreme market conditions. For Week 42, the CVaR is -4.12%, indicating potential losses in worst-case scenarios. CVaR helps in preparing for unfavorable outcomes, especially during weeks with higher anticipated risks, ensuring that your strategy accounts for rare but impactful events. Finally, the **Expected Minimum and Maximum Prices** for each week give you a clear sense of the anticipated trading range. In Week 42, the expected minimum price is $555.49, and the maximum is $608.63, suggesting a relatively stable range. Strategies like iron condors or butterflies, which benefit from price staying within a certain range, would thrive in such conditions. Weeks with a broader range might offer opportunities for breakout trades or more aggressive directional strategies. Looking further ahead, Week 49 stands out due to a sharp negative position size (-269.59) and a drawdown of 0.93%. This week warrants caution, as it signals the potential for more significant downside risk, though subsequent weeks like Week 50 show a return to more stable expected ranges. Overall, SPY’s end-of-year outlook suggests that the market will largely remain within predictable bounds, though periods of increased volatility could arise. Investors and traders should stay vigilant, using tools like the Kelly ratio, tail ratio, and CVaR to manage risk while capitalizing on available opportunities. Maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure, while adapting strategies based on weekly volatility and price range expectations, will be key to navigating the remainder of the year. **Disclaimer**: The following analysis is based solely on the provided data and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and any investment decisions should be made after thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
1
SPY Loosing Momentum ! SPYLOVERS DONT PANIC ! Its OKAfter several weeks of analysis, the price reached its all-time highs twice, creating a new extreme. Att his moment is what i call in a no man's land zone. But what do I see in the overall structure? If you can clearly identify the yellow upward channel, I want you to split it in half, and we will analyze the two parts. In the first half, we have an active price movement, with clear fluctuations between support and resistance. The high volatility causes the price to move in waves, perfectly respecting support and resistance. But if you can manage to identify the second half, up until the end of the channel, you'll see that the price shows signs of exhaustion. Exhaustion, how? When the price stops having that volatility everyone is looking for, and begins to slow down and starts moving like a worm along the edge of the channel’s support, showing small candles and, above all, losing momentum. (In the chart, I want you to identify the price exhaustion by marking it with a small symbol of a worm crawling along the channel's support.) This type of behavior happens frequently when the price is losing momentum. In this type of scenario, I am more than certain that we will soon see a move where the price might break out of the yellow channel. Most likely, we will see the price make its natural retracement. After achieving two all-time highs, I believe it's time for the price to take a break, either to consolidate or make a quick decision. Nevertheless, I am expecting the price to make its natural pullback in the coming week. We’ll see if it happens. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Reaching the top on Elliott Impulse WaveThe potential upside for SPY could be around 1% to 2.5%, pushing it to the 590-600 range. However, with the market in overbought territory, signs of an ABC correction are starting to emerge. This correction could lead to a 5% to 10% decline, potentially stretching into the next year. Despite two years of strong bull market gains, we haven't seen a significant correction, which feels overdue, particularly with the euphoria around AI investments. While I hesitate to call it a "bubble," it's not on the same scale as the dot-com bubble, as many of the companies leading in AI are established tech giants rather than startups. However, it's still unclear how much revenue these companies will generate from AI in the short term, though Meta is already seeing some returns, while others are likely to see results in two to three years. A further risk could stem from geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which are closer to war than ever. If conflict escalates, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil traffic. This would drive oil prices higher, pushing inflation up and potentially leading the Fed to raise interest rates. As of now, the market hasn't even priced in the possibility of a limited or retaliatory strike from Israel, which seems increasingly likely. Lastly, I don't believe this will mark the end of the bull run or push SPY into bear market territory, as there are still solid data points supporting the economy. Hopefully, a small correction occurs, which would be healthy, and we avoid any major geopolitical fallout.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JerryDaniel
SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci ExtensionBased on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done. Back to this idea itself. As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts: Highest Intermediate Blue Wave Middle Minor Green Wave Lowest Minute Purple Wave All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high. I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels: 1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure. 2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5. Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market. This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by yuchaosng
2
SPY Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Current Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, SPY is sitting in an interesting zone with several key levels to watch for tomorrow's trading session: Support Levels: 582.30: Immediate support, where SPY may try to stabilize. 578.53: Stronger support, previously tested as both resistance and support. Resistance Levels: 585.28: Immediate resistance overhead. If SPY breaks this, expect bullish continuation. 586.30: The next resistance level to monitor, potentially marking the upper boundary of the trend. Trendlines: SPY is still within an ascending channel, and the lower trendline (starting around October 11) is providing consistent support for price action. As long as it stays above this trendline, the bullish structure is intact. Indicators & Volume Insights Volume: We’ve seen volume decline slightly towards the close, which could mean consolidation before the next move. Momentum Indicator: There’s a slight uptick in the oscillators, indicating a potential reversal or continuation to the upside. Keep an eye on momentum overnight. Potential Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above 582.30 and breaks 585.28, we could see a run toward 586.30 and possibly beyond. Bearish Case: A break below 582.30 may trigger selling pressure, with 578.53 being the key support level to monitor for further downside. ____________________________________ Why Some Traders Profit While Others Struggle with the Same TA Even with identical technical analysis, traders experience different outcomes. Here are a few common reasons: Discipline & Emotions: Many traders fail to follow their trading plan or let emotions (fear and greed) interfere. Risk Management: Profitable traders use proper position sizing and stop losses, while others risk too much on single trades. Execution: Timing is critical—delays or hesitation can lead to missed or poorly executed entries. Adaptability: Markets change rapidly, and rigid traders who can’t adapt often miss out, while others thrive by adjusting their strategies. If you find yourself struggling despite using solid TA, focus on building discipline, refining your execution, and maintaining good risk management practices. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions or need further clarification. Happy trading! 📊🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights