A critical Level for the RussiansIf a confirmed breakout takes place below the redline, we can go to 650
If oil prices reach $ 40, Russia will collapse.
NFA
IRUS trade ideas
Short Russian Stocks market It is clear that the Trump rally will not continue, and we will renew the minimum for the year
IRUS/GOLDI don't know what the lows will be like. like in 2009 or just a candle like in 2022 and we’ll fly into growth? but in the long term these are good levels for purchases
IMOEX ForecastThe forecast is based on 4 key events that will take place before the end of the year - three meetings to change the Central Bank's key rate and the US elections. I assume that the market may follow two scenarios:
1. rebound from 2490 level - there is strong support at this level, growth up to 4000
2. fall to 2290, gap closing and approximately from here growth to 4150
MOEX Rebounds: Domestic Power Overcomes Geopolitical HeadwindsThe MOEX Index in Russia exhibits surprising resilience, recovering to pre-war levels in May 2024. This upswing stems from a confluence of factors:
* **Shifting Investment Landscape:** Western sanctions have curbed foreign participation, but a surge in domestic retail investment and capital inflows from allied countries has mitigated the impact.
* **Robust Corporate Performance:** Energy companies, buoyed by high global prices, report strong financials. Increased revenue and profitability allow for continued investment and dividend payouts, attracting domestic investors.
* **Renewed IPO Activity:** Tentative signs of a revival in domestic IPO activity suggest a cautious return of investor confidence in the Russian market.
However, challenges remain:
* **Sanctions and Foreign Investment:** The full impact of sanctions is yet to be determined. Restricted foreign investment limits market liquidity, potentially hindering future growth. Additionally, sectors reliant on foreign technology may face long-term constraints.
* **Geopolitical Uncertainty and Military Spending:** The ongoing war in Ukraine and associated geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the Russian economy. While increased military spending benefits some sectors in the short term, it could strain the treasury in the long run.
**Turkey's Potential Role in Sanctions Busting:**
The article discusses a concerning development: Turkey's potential role in facilitating the re-export of Russian oil products to Europe. This practice, if confirmed, could undermine sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's war chest. Further investigation and potential enforcement actions may be required.
**Trade Idea: Long MOEX**
This analysis suggests a long position on MOEX.
* **Entry:** 3535.87
* **Target Profits (T.P.):** 3724.67, 3992.71, 4300.33, etc. (as listed in your original article)
* **Stop Loss (S.L.):** 3079.14
**Conclusion:**
The MOEX recovery is a fascinating case study. While domestic factors drive the market in the short term, the long-term trajectory hinges on the evolving geopolitical landscape, the effectiveness of sanctions, and the overall health of the Russian economy. The potential for Turkish involvement in sanctions circumvention adds another layer of complexity.
MOEX Russia Index (IMOEX) Elliott Wave AnalysisMOEX Russia Index (IMOEX) Elliott Wave Analysis
The Russian Stock Index Elliott Wave count is basically in line with the US Indices such as the SP500 and NASDAQ.
MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high.
Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall.
The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system.
The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts.
Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped.
Where do you put it but on the exchange?
Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value.
“Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank.
The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year.
Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected.
For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK.
Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.
Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022.
There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions.
Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia.
In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
IMOEX shortSeems we are going to close in red area before the new year (approx 10% lower than recent area).
If this happens, which is very possible, then we can reach yellow area in 2025 (approx 55% lower than recent area).
Russia About to experience significant declineRussia has just dropped into the red on this indicator and been displaying divergence for sometime. Could this indicate another crash in Russia's economy.
November till the last days of december prognosysAs you can see on the presented chart we have had developed a milestones to further analyse what is going to happen in the last days of 2023. We took Moex Stock Ruble Index as a basis. This is a follow up for the earlier chart. Alpha rout presents wealthy investors, sigma is so called traders, theta is a small investors hoard, and beta is a portfolio managers. Why do we we think things are set up this way and not other way? Well, first of all, we think this is a common setup for the end of the year, when all deals are done, and managers are planning ahead for the next year, while accountants managing last causes and sending taxes to budget. As you can see, salt in the water is time cycles, with elliot wave, which shows the path of the market arbitrage around these investors. So be it 22 days, 6 days, 8 days, 6 days, 9 days. What does this mean? Well, we think this is the gaps between important meetings and rounds. We are still working to develop a solid quantifiable ground to prove our work. Thank you for your attention, please comment and push the boost button, if you like what you see and read.
Dedushka Moroz Race 2023Less than two months before Christmas and The New Years eve in Russian Federation. We see a minor opportunity to take a small opportunistic long trade or if you see fundamentals are weak just sit on your hands and watch how situation will develop. Happy holidays, please enjoy and comment.
IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...?
My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy.
Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V".
The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C.
After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio
(0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met.
Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard.
That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia:
1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities);
2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities);
3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish);
4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital;
5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange.
6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock)
Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out.
The Mid/Short-Term Analysis
Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24.
It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
Upside in MOEX Russia IndexWe see small opportunistic trade in IMOEX. Stop is 3000 points psychological level and the target is recent high level of 3288.40 points. Current price before the opening bell is 3051.90. As always it is better to take money from the trade if something goes wrong.
Russian stock market - next aim 2000?According to the Elliot waves account Russian stock market (MOEX) has finished the wave (b) inside of 4th wave (abc) and going on to (c) right now. If this is correct, it means about 38% correction (from 3200 to 2000). Interestingly enough, this corresponds to the American stock market (SP500) that has started its descend already a while ago and looks bearish right now. The hero of 'Big Short' has recently opened a short one 90% of his positions of the SP index.
The end of the Russian marketI expect the end of the correction at the level of 2900-2950 in mid-May. Then it will fall to the region 1)1020 2)440 during the summer of this year.
full analysis IMOEXIt is clear that the Russian Stock Exchange is heading to work on historical corrective waves after it ended five strong upward waves, and it is currently in the last, third leg of the correction, and it is expected to decline strongly to end wave C, including the beginning of a new five-motive bullish wave
$IMOEX accumulated potential for the annual moving
MOEX:IMOEX almost crashed a plate above to start of mind-blowing moving to 3900 during the year.
$IMOEX::2450->3900::59%::March 2024
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoregg
Please, subscribe and challenge my point of view )
Russian Hedge?Banking sector is collapsing in Silicon Valley, Switzerland and Sri Lanka. Inflation is sill on the table and all eyes are on the Powells move on the rate decision. S&P500 is on the sideways and traders are buying gold, crypto and... Russia. Gears are shifting and this might be the historical moment. Especially when we have the strong support to be broken and big upside to close the gap.
Short Russia"By the time you come to, you're gonna need a new haircut" - Gary Bertier, Remember the Titans.
Russia looks like it is setting up for another wave down. Kinda hard to grow when the economy is cutoff from the world. The Ruble is also getting trashed (has been for decades), despite some "professionals" pumping lies about the ruble being "so strong" in 2022.
Moscow Stock Exchange Index: Head and ShouldersThe "Head and shoulders" model is the most common reversal model.
The main prerequisite for the formation of a reversal model is the presence of an active trend: from 10.10.22 to 14.11.22, the Index was in an uptrend. The trend line has 3 confirmation points A, B, C. It is important to note that each of these points forms support levels.
After breaking the ABC trend line at point D, the quotes completed a decline at point E, which coincided with the previously established support level C, i.e. the neck line CE.
It is possible to talk about the completion (confirmation) of the "Head and Shoulders" model only after the violation of the CE neck line.
If the model is confirmed, it is necessary to use a measuring approach based on the height of the "head", putting the height down from the neck line to estimate the magnitude of the further decrease.
Analogue: Russia Market Crash 2022 vs SP500 Analogue between Russia Market Crash and US major index SP500 since the low of the Covid Crash. For most of the time both markets tracked well. In the last leg to the ATH however, Russia diverged to the downside while US markets held up for another 83 Days. Analog suggests that market participants may not be expecting continuation of crash leg. "This couldn't happen in America!" Could it?
