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NKE trade ideas

NIKE | JUST BUY ITNike topped Wall Street estimates for first quarter profit on Thursday as higher prices of its sneakers and apparel helped offset a hit from waning demand and persistent cost pressures, sending its shares up about 8% in extended trading. Nike (NKE) is the largest apparel company in the world, with leading positions across different categories and regions. The company is currently facing challenges such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Such issues have resulted in the stock dropping by 19% YTD. Although these headwinds are serious, I believe the company's durable brand, leading position, and high-quality products should allow it to come out stronger on the other end. 'Nike is a brand that is of China and for China' -John Donahoe Like every other apparel and retail company, Nike thought post-pandemic demand would continue, so it increased production, which led to inventory levels hitting an all-time high in Q1-FY22, but as we know, that wasn't the case. Although NKE's inventory level is down from all-time highs, investors are still concerned, especially when inflation is eating into people's pockets and growth in China is slowing. Inflation in North America has come down to 3.7% from its peak in June at 9.1%, but it is still a concern in Europe (6.1% in the EU union). As you can see from the graph below, sales in China have been decreasing for the past two years. There are multiple ways one can explain this: COVID related lockdowns resulted in the shuttering of some stores. Plus, Nike and other apparel companies started facing a backlash in China in 2021 due to the alleged use of forced labor in cotton production. However, if the company is successful at expanding into China, then we can expect a lot of room for growth. Now that I have addressed the problems that are facing Nike, let me explain why I believe the company will overcome them. Nike sponsors the most well-known athletes such as Cristiano Ronaldo (+600 million Instagram followers), LeBron James, Michael Jordan, the late Kobe Bryant, Rafael Nadal, Tiger Woods, and more. This has helped the company build a loyal customer base and further boost its brand equity. With a loyal customer base comes pricing power, and as Warrant Buffet said: Nike's pricing power is no joke. Its shoes have reached a level where they are considered luxury, with some selling for more than the $10,000 mark. In 2017, Nike's median price for a shoe regardless of gender was $80, which is $10 more than its biggest competitor, Adidas. I know 2017 was a long time ago, but shoe prices have increased since then, and I believe Nike is still in the lead given their dominant market position. Plus, Nike targets mostly the age demographic of 25 and 34. These are people who have not settled in yet. They just graduated college with extra income to spend on things such as expensive shoes. I believe this pricing power will continue as the company continues to sponsor talented upcoming athletes to build trust with customers. Another way to measure Nike's brand power is by comparing its marketing spending against its peers. Nike's marketing budget in FY 23 was $4 billion, or 7.9% of revenue. On the other hand, Adidas spent 38% and Under Armour 11%. These companies have been allocating more of their revenue towards marketing but have experienced nowhere near the growth Nike has. NKE's association with well-known athletes in the U.S. has allowed them to have a 96% awareness rate, 53% usage rate, and 43% loyalty rate. Going forward, I expect the company's brand will remain high-quality due to sponsorships, high-quality products, and market-leading technology. Founded by Bill Bowerman and Phil Knight in 1994, Nike has come a long way from its first store in Portland, Oregon. As of May 31, 2023, the company had 369 stores within the U.S. and 663 internationally, operating in more than 190 countries. Stores include franchised stores and third-party retailers. The firm owns multiple brands such as Jordan, Converse, and Nike. The company derives sales from four main segments and across four regions. I excluded Converse (4.74% of revenue) from the graphs below because I wanted to focus on the Nike brand. The company's app, NikePlus, has more than 160 million users. On a trailing free cash flow basis, the stock yields over 3.3% relative to its enterprise value. My ~$104 May 24 PT implies a 28.00x P/E and 20.00x EV/EBITDA. Both multiples are below the ten-year NTM average and in line with the median. I project revenue to compound at a rate of 6.47% over the next three years, driven by market growth and new products, while shares decrease at a rate of 2.67%, driven by stock buybacks. The company is forecast to spend $12.1 billion on share repurchases over the same period. Additionally, I believe the company still has room for margin improvement driven by price increases and DTC mix (direct-to-consumer). In FY 2019, DTC sales constituted 31% of revenue, and that figure stood at 44% in FY 2023. Although NKE is trading at a premium compared to peers, I believe it is reasonable considering its scale, high-quality products, and strong brand. The first risk that I would associate with NKE is competition. The company competes with conglomerates such as Addidas, Puma, New Balance, Under Armour, and more. Additionally, e-commerce has made it very easy for anyone to start their own footwear brand. Other key risks to my rating include supply chain distributions, a recessionary environment, and slow growth in China. Finally, we can point out that NKE appears technically oversold heading into the Q1 earnings report. From the chart , there has been relentless selling pressure over the last four months since NKE was trading at $130 per share. The potential that NKE delivers a "good" earnings report with encouraging guidance, brushing aside fears the company is facing a deeper deterioration in its operating environment could be enough for shares to reprice higher. Simply put, our take is that NKE bears have gone too far, opening the door for bulls to take control. The bottom line is that Nike is currently experiencing headwinds such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Every business goes through similar challenges at one time or another, but I believe Nike is well-positioned to overcome these issues due to its durable brand, high-quality products, and leading position. I expect the company to keep endorsing high-quality athletes to elevate its brand equity and further strengthen its pricing power. My valuation implies a price target of ~$104 for May 31, 2024. If you into NIKE brand you can watch Air film and read Shoe Dog book as well
NYSE:NKELong
by moonypto
20
Hedge Fund Managers Buying, so was IBill Ackman has been loading the boat on Nike. I did advice you guys to also start loading, whilst all the analysts became bearish and the media outlets spout their usual nonsense. This is the second American super brand, after Starbucks, subject to an activist investor seeing value and exerting pressure on the senior management. If you refer to my earlier analysis, you will see that I identified Nike as a buy due to a confluence of support : the Fibonacci golden pocket, along with support of the 0.75 Fibonacci Speedfan, amongst other levels. I don’t intend to hold this for years to come, I suspect nor does Ackman who has previously traded Nike as a swing trade, cashing out a few months lager. My intention is the same here. Whilst this is still not the confirmation of the start of an impulsive move up, and we have only just finished correcting the 5th wave of the grand supercycle, I expect us to rally upwards towards the $90-100 in the weeks to come. I will review the strength of the move later to determine how long I hold this. Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
NYSE:NKELong
by NoFOMO_
$NKE | Allocation | Market Exec & Buy Limit |Technical Confluences: - Price action is at the 61% Retracement for Recent Lows to Highs and the beginning of Nike's time (Strong Support) - Price action is also at a Demand Zone - Stochastics is at Oversold levels on the Weekly & Monthly TF Fundamental Confluences: - Regardless of weak Earnings and Forward Projections, Nike is still considered as a market leader in various aspects (Fashion, Fitness, Sports, Status etc.); brand loyalty will be retained at least for the next few years - Who doesn't love Nike; aside from Adidas? ________________________________ NYSE:NKE is the next in my basket of portfolio. Allocating the first 20% of single-stock into my Long-Term portfolio. The Nike brand will not die off that easily. Definitely, a value buy; for me. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
NYSE:NKELong
by weekendanalyst
Why Nike Might Be a Contrarian Investment Temporary Setbacks: Despite its strong brand and market position, Nike has faced challenges such as supply chain disruptions, increased competition, and economic downturns. These temporary setbacks can lead to a decline in stock price, creating a buying opportunity for contrarian investors who believe in the company's long-term prospects.   Overreaction to Negative News: The market often overreacts to negative news. If Nike faces challenges, its stock price might drop significantly. Contrarian investors might see this as an opportunity to buy a quality stock at a discount, believing that the market's pessimism is overblown. Valuation Discrepancy: Sometimes, Nike's stock price might not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value. A decline in stock price due to market sentiment might create a valuation gap, making it an attractive investment for contrarian investors.   Long-term Growth Potential: Nike has a strong brand, a global presence, and a history of innovation. These factors suggest long-term growth potential, which can make the stock an attractive contrarian investment, especially when the market is pessimistic.  
NYSE:NKELong
by StockBlog
NKE is worth watching for an entry point based on RSI and volume My Trading Strategy is very basic, a classic K.I.S.S. Philosophy. Using StochRSI, a 5 year chart for historical data and a YTD chart for current data. I look for oversold discounted companies. Nike had a ton of negative press, blah earnings and the stock price got clipped after they reported. To me, this fits my strategy to a tee, and patience and paying attention to RSI particularly will serve me well. Today, NKE price had the first of 3 bullish price moves. I’d prefer to see the RSI on both K&D be above 35 before trying to make an early move however in this case, RSI rose well above 35 but the stock price did not follow. I opted to wait and see if buying volume would continue. My trades are typically for 3-10 days and my exits vary by stock performance, market conditions etc.
NYSE:NKELong
by pcseiden
4
Analysis of Nike Stock: Potential for RecoveryAfter issuing poor guidance, Nike's stock experienced a significant decline. Over the past month, it has been stabilizing and establishing a support level while attempting to fill the gap created by the drop. With the next earnings report scheduled for September, there is potential for the stock to recover. Key Points to Consider: Current Price Action: Nike's stock is currently consolidating, showing signs of finding a floor. This consolidation period often indicates that the market is absorbing the recent news and setting the stage for a potential rebound. Short-term Target: Before the September earnings report, Nike's stock could recover to around $88. This level would represent a retracement as the stock attempts to regain some of its lost ground. Earnings Catalyst: If Nike reports better-than-expected earnings in September, the stock could potentially rally to around $100.
NYSE:NKELong
by khongorzul0317
Quick Take: NKE Nike ## Technical Analysis of Nike (NKE) Stock Chart ### Trend Analysis 1. **Long-term Trend**: The chart shows a strong upward trend from 2014 until 2021, reaching a peak at 173.32. Since then, the stock has been in a downtrend. 2. **Current Trend**: The stock price is currently below all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20), indicating a bearish trend. ### Moving Averages - **MA5 (85.62)**, **MA10 (95.06)**, and **MA20 (103.37)**: The stock price is significantly below these levels, reinforcing the bearish trend. ### RSI (Relative Strength Index) - **RSI(14) at 34.49**: The RSI is below 50, indicating bearish momentum. It is close to the oversold region (below 30), which might suggest a potential reversal or a pause in the downtrend. ### Support and Resistance Levels 1. **Immediate Support**: Around 70.00-72.00, as indicated by historical price action and the current price level. 2. **Next Major Support**: Around 60.00, based on previous significant price levels. 3. **Immediate Resistance**: The moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) will act as resistance levels (85.62, 95.06, and 103.37 respectively). ### Volume Analysis - **Volume Spikes**: Significant volume increases during price declines, indicating strong selling pressure. ### Price Targets 1. **Bullish Scenario**: If the stock price manages to hold above the immediate support around 70.00 and the RSI moves upwards from the oversold region: - **Short-term Target**: 85.00 (MA5) - **Medium-term Target**: 95.00 (MA10) - **Long-term Target**: 103.00 (MA20) 2. **Bearish Scenario**: If the stock breaks below the immediate support around 70.00: - **Short-term Target**: 65.00 - **Medium-term Target**: 60.00 ### Recommendations - **For Long Positions**: Wait for confirmation of support around 70.00 or a reversal signal (e.g., bullish RSI divergence) before entering. - **For Short Positions**: Consider shorting if the stock breaks below the immediate support around 70.00 with a target of 65.00 or 60.00. ### Final Note - **Risk Management**: Set stop-loss orders to manage potential downside risks. For long positions, consider placing stop-loss just below the support level at 70.00. For short positions, place stop-loss above the recent high or a key resistance level. This analysis is based on the current chart and indicators; always consider market conditions and other fundamental factors before making trading decisions.
NYSE:NKE
by MaxLemon
$NKE just doing it to $88.50 from $72 after drastic drop off $98NYSE:NKE just doing it to $88.50 from $72 after drastic drop. Perfect to align with a bit above the 50% Fibonacci point as the RSI climbs higher towards the 200 day moving average above the 50 day moving average on the 2hour chart and in multiple timeframes. Invest smart, invest hard. Boost my post if you like this idea 💡 Also follow and subscribe for more uproars. Let's spread the word together. Roaring Puppy 🐶 out. NYSE:NKE
NYSE:NKELong
by St0ckWr4ngl3r
1
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear. The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services. The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon. As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components. Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates. But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz". This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024. Influence of macroeconomic factors 👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure. 👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken. 👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values ​​of the fourth quarter of 2021. Investment Domes worsen forecasts... 👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative." 👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report. 👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00. 👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st. ...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses. 16 years ago. How it was On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures. The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes. Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics. However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015). Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified. Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits). The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09. Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows.. However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
NYSE:NKE
by Pandorra