HLF trade ideas
Possible MoveNYSE:HLF is going down with strong force, if it holds $48 level tomorrow, I will consider entering at the end of the day for a long position to ~$52 or ~$57
Herbalife LOOKS BULLISH200 day is up trend. HLF is over extended and needs to come back to the mean on weekly and daily charts.
Herbalife: Ackman's timing was offClass topping pattern. A break above 80 would take this stock to ~ 100.
GAP StrategySince HLF is oversold , there's a very good oportunity in making money. Target is 57.00 , but I belive that it will go over 60 .
MARKET HOURS:
Good oportunity for STRADDLE (in case the price wiil be between 59 and 63) after the market opens, as well as IRON CONDOR (STRANGLE seems to be ***too risky***).
HLF Triangle Pattern Coming to a HeadHLF is moving out toward the end of this triangular consolidation pattern.
Several previous consolidation patterns for HLF have not panned out and have morphed into more extended consolidation patterns. Thus it is possible that this could morph into a rectangle-shaped consolidation and extend further.
I'm still long.
Icahn has added to his position twice for the first time in quite a while.
That has taken some supply of shares out of the market.
I expect that he will purchase some additional shares and try to get his position up a few more percentage points.
Once that has been accomplished, I expect the company to announce a Modified Dutch Tender offer for something on the order of $1.2 billion of stock using its new credit facilities and cash on the balance sheet.
That could reduce the share count a further 10%-20%.
The M.O.A.S.S.* is almost upon us!
*M.O.A.S.S = Mother of All Short Squeezes
HLF - Icahn & Ackman & an Inside CandleIt is fun to sit back and watch two billionaires take different sides of a trade. You may have your favorite between the two billionaires or you may be a little more like me and ponder which side of the trade YOU would take if you were a billionaire. Someday we will find out which of them was right. But do they want to be right? I would say they just want to lock in a profit...
I don't know anything more than what i have heard in the media about this company. I am only intrigued because the billionaires are on opposite sides. I will not take the time to learn more about the company. But I will use some technical analysis to decide what may happen next...
First, the "general" technical analysis. Focus on the gray horizontal line at about $72 and the green up trend line. The shaded triangle between them shows some future boundaries for the stock price. In general, you can see that HLF has reached the $72 level 3 times on this chart. If it can get above that level and stay there maybe it's going higher. It has also put in a series of higher lows (which allows me to draw the green uptrend line) so eventually it may continue above the $72 level. But at any time, HLF could cross below the green uptrend line. If this happens you could make an argument that it may be finished going higher and is ready to go lower.
August and September have pretty large ranges. The range in August was about $15 and the month was a positive one. The range in September was about $12 and the month was a negative one. What does this tell us? Not much... It might be a sign of negativity but there is no clear indication that I am aware of.
Now, the more "Specific" technical analysis. Notice that the September candle is smaller than, and inside of, the August candle. There are many potential reasons for the "inside candle" of September but all in all it give us a contraction of the upper & lower boundaries. It is understood that following the break of an inside candle can give you an indication of the future direction. In this case, the break of the inside monthly candle may be an indication of which billionaire is right...
As I understand it, Icahn is sitting on a large profit and Ackman is sitting on a large loss at the moment. Could that change in the future? Maybe :)
Here is why I say maybe. Ackman said the other day that Icahn was close to selling. Maybe it was an all out lie and maybe it was a fact that was just not supposed to get out to the media...
If Icahn looks at this chart the way I do, he may be realizing he should have sold in August when HLF was close to $70. Typically, the third failed attempt at a resistance level is not a good sign for higher prices. If Icahn has a profit he could sell and move on. There is no harm in taking profits. Yea, he bought millions more shares just recently. But big deal if he doesn't actually make money on those. He would be close to even on the new shares and have a large gain on the older shares. It is still a profit no matter how you cut it.
If Ackman can hold on until Icahn sells AND if the third failed attempt at the $72 level is an indication of lower prices, he also has a chance to book a healthy profit. Sometimes profits are more of a function of how long you are willing to hold. Especially when your initial purchase(s) were wrong and you didn't accept your error and exit the position.
Don't count out either one of these billionaires. You can have your favorite but they may both wind up victorious. It will be fun to watch for sure!
Have a great Labor Day.
Herbalife H&S formation?Looks to me like HLF is forming a right shoulder within an enormous potential H&S formation. Add the enormous bearish divergence within MACD and I'd say this is a very attractive short.
Another Odd "Line" Pattern in HLF, 15HLF has continued moving sideways with the market through and past its earnings report.
Jim Cramer did a segment on it last night and concluded that on a fundamental basis it was worth $67......
Where did he get that idea???...actually from trying to put a multiple on various earnings and cash flow measures.
Meanwhile, mega-short Bill Ackman was reported to have liquidated his entire stake in Canadian pacific, one of his winners, putting that in the same category of "Winner's Ackman Has Liquidated Positions In" as $ZTS and $MDLZ.
$HLF Trading Up After Hours on EarningsThe company generated 16% sales growth in North America, which accounts for only about 20% of revenue.
HLF LONG68 target on HLF
notice the symmetry of 30 bars and 30 bars... if it breaks out, I think we can grind to a high of 68-70 area
HLF -neutral- Potentially seeks a swing low above support zoneHLF pulled back from the 61.95 new YTD high (August 10, 2015) towards the
38.2% of the 49.00/61.95 rise at 56.93. Potentially a swing low could form near the 55.86 area (June 25 12, 2015 range high)/55.42 (50% of the 49.00/61.95 rise)/54.11 (near 61.8% of the 49.00/61.95 rise) ahead of the next upleg towards 61.95.
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish
Herbalife: Potential For A Short Trade #ConfluencesFriends
This stock has put in some nice Fibonacci harmonic moves. This final leg will bring us to the bottom of the range, which in turn, completes a very nice three drives pattern.
You can use extremely tight stop losses with this trade, I personally managed to get over 15 Risk Reward ratio in my best modelling scenario
I recommend taking profits before 1.272 extension is hit, as when the 1.272 extension is hit, the three drives pattern is complete, and thats a BUY signal.
Thanks,
Tom
The nutrition and weight loss company failed to meet performanceAfter reporting a new quarterly decline in its earnings per share to $ 1.42 and to have lowered the salaries of its top executives, this friday have fallen share value by about 10%, the questioned pyramid scheme company still has room to fall in next days. reut.rs vía @reuters
A short term Rally. Positive Divergence. Gaining Momentum, Support @37.69 and MA compression. If there are no more sellers a news may trigger an uptrend. Entry 38, Target 43, Stop 33. Risk/Reward Ratio 2
I wouldn't play too long term with this stock since the main trend is Bearish and the big players like to play a lot of mind games here. This has a good volatility though (12% average on the daily ) for swing traders and short term speculators.
October low now is a history what next?There is a good chance before end of the year this will hit $30.77-$33 area. Precise prediction that it will go below October low and now seems that prediction accurate and probably selling will intensify towards next minor support April low 2013. It looks Ackman is having good time now and may probably win at the end of the day. If you want a real time alerts try us www.2waytrading.com
