Where will CRM go today?As you might now, later that day CRM will publish their earnings. What is priced in in the options and what does that tell us?
IV, IM
- We have a very high Implied Volatility. The calculated Implied Move is 14.90 USD according to my data. Therefore the lower Zone is at ~148 and the upper zone is at ~178. This is a 9% move!
- Remember the Implied Volatility is equal to one standard deviation. Therefor the chance is 68% that the price stays within the zone from 148 - 178 after earnings.
PUTS
- The number of Put-Options out-of-the-money compared to the Put-Option in-the-money is 91.59%. Remember, when Put-Options will be in-the-money at expiration they are assigned. Hence Option Traders speculate on a change of price and not want to buy or sell the underlying, you can safely assume, that the vast majority (91%) of all Option Traders believe, that the price will not drop any further.
- The most traded Put Option price is at 150 USD. 46% of all traders believe, the price will not drop below 150 USD.
- If the price would drop below 150, many shares will be assigned and bought at that price. Therefor, 150 USD will act as natural resistance.
CALLS
- Calls out and in-the-money are very even. There is no signal to recognize.
- The most traded Call is at 157.50. Hence Calls become worthless when they are out-of-the-money at expiration, its safe to assume that 42% of all Option-Trader that buy Callls, believe the price will be above 157.50 USD.
Summarize:
- Resistance at 150 due to Put Options
- Strong bullish signal Put Options (91% overall, above price 163.61 USD)
- Bullish signal Call Options (42% believe above 157.50 USD)
(all data is analyzed with the expiration day 3.3.23)
