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AMC, Descending-Triangle, C19-Variant Could Roast Sector-Stocks!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about the AMC, Theatres Entertainment Stock on the daily timframe perspectives considering important Price Action currently moving the Stock Price. As I mentioned already in previous ideas the current Sector-Stock Market is highly fluctuend with some major Sector-Stocks showing substantial upside potentials while others have a higher possibility to set-up a major pullback and continue with bearish inclinations. These differences within the Sector-Stocks Market should be evaluated when considering either a long-, short-, or total-return-approach. In this case I have detected a interesting Stock on the Watchlist currently that has a substantial possibility to be a main short-candidate in the current market dynamic. This stock is AMC, Theatres Entertainment and there are several factors to consider for the stock from a financial markets perspective, a technical perspective, and the recent important news that could trigger a main sell-out for the sector the stock is located in. Considering the recent news it has to be pointed out that health officials within the U.S., Europe, and Asia region reported about a new Covid-19 variant called "Eris". This new variant already caused the hospital activity related to Covid-19 to rise above 40% which is a serious dynamic because when the hospitals should "struggle" to take up new cases like it has been reported within the Covid-19 outbreaks in 2020 this could possibly trigger new Corona-related lockdowns in the affected regions. Now, to put this dynamic into the perspective for AMC it is important to determine the relation here. As AMC has Theatres and screens all over Europe, the U.S., and parts of other regions Corona-related lockdowns in this region could trigger the Theatres and screens to close in a mass-manner similarly as it has been taken place already within the huge lockdown-waves of 2020. This means that such a dynamic in the entertainment sector could lead to the investors holding AMC could sell-off the stock in mass, especially within such a sector the related bearish wave could reach a strong momentum similarly as it has been already determined within the past. From a technical perspective the dynamics have a highly similar outlook and despite a fundamental bearish inclination the technicals are also pointing to a more bearish outcome likelihood to show up in the next times. When looking at my chart AMC is building this gigantic descending-triangle-formation with the coherent wave-count within the formation and the coherent wave-count already advancing further extensively with the coherent head-and-shoulders-formation within the wave-count about to complete with a bearish wave to the downside. Once the local head-and-shoulders-formation has been completed there is a emensely high possiblity for the next confirmation to show up within the next time because once AMC broke out below the lower boundary of this gigantic wedge-formation this will point to the continuation and substantial extension of the major wave-E within the wave-count and continue into the directions till the main target-zones have been reached. Besides that there are also other signs pointing to this scenario in the market such as the high-likelihood bearish EMA-crossover to setup in the near future because such a crossover will happen once the 200-EMA marked in red has crossed below the 100-EMA in green. Taking these two main underlying conditions for the stock into the perspective, the fundamentals of a potential sell-out for the Sector-Stocks due to potential lockdown waves resulting of the new variant and the major fact that all technical indications point to the bearish scenario, the bearish scenario for AMC should be highly considered to emerge within the next times. Once the whole technical descending-triangle-formation has been completed as marked the targets shown will be activated and once these targets have been reached it will be important how the market reacts into the target-zone and if there is a strong signal in the Sector to reverse a bearish dynamic and point to a technical reversal once the targets have been reached. It will be indeed a interesting dynamic to determine and therefore we will keep having the stock on our watchlist to determine important changes. It will be a important dynamic to determine a positioning on the right side of the market. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
NYSE:AMC
by VincePrince
5
$AMC Moving in the Right DirectionOn August 11th, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) won court approval for its MC Preferred Equity (NYSE: APE) restructuring plan which would allow the movie theater chain to move forward with its restructuring plan. This plan includes converting APE shares into AMC common shares, conducting a 1 to 10 reverse split, and issuing shares to raise capital that is much needed by the company. Following this news, AMC stock dropped 25% in after-hours trading accompanied by a 25% run in APE stock which is expected since now 1 APE share should be equal in value to 1 AMC share. Having said that, the outlook for AMC appears to be brighter than ever as the company can now stave off bankruptcy talk and continue improving its business, especially after the company reported its first profitable quarter in 4 years. AMC Fundamentals Legal Saga is Over At long last, AMC’s legal saga has finally been wrapped up with a settlement worth around $120 million contingent on its stock’s PPS. This settlement approves the movie theater chain’s conversion plan which allows it to convert APE shares into AMC common shares, execute a reverse split, and raise capital. This plan is likely to result in AMC receiving billions of dollars which might save the company from its looming debt crises. As things stand, the company has a means of survival which is an extremely bullish indication for a company that was previously fated to impending bankruptcy. Currently, AMC has 519 million shares outstanding and APE has 995 million shares outstanding. The sum of these two figures – 1.51 billion – adjusted by the reverse split ratio will be the stock’s new float. Once the company effects the 1 for 10 reverse split, that figure should be around 151 million shares. Taking AMC’s latest closing price of $5.2 per share, the stock’s post-reverse split PPS would be around $52. Given that AMC has 524 million in authorized shares, the company may issue up to 373 million shares, which if priced at the stock’s latest closing price, would amount to $19 billion, more than enough to cover all of the company’s $5 billion debt. If the company is able to eliminate all of its debt by raising capital through share issuances, AMC stock would be a viable long-term investment, especially with the movie theater giant finally returning to profitability in its latest Q2 earnings. With that in mind, the company may be set to witness a much more successful quarter in Q3. Third Quarter Blockbuster Bonanza Q3 started off with the opening of Barbenhiemer which is projected to bring in a substantial sum to the Domestic box office. So far, Barbie alone has raised more than $500 million dollars and Oppenheimer has raised $238 million domestically making it one of the top 10 grossing R-rated movies. Barbenhiemer aside, Q3 still has a few more potential blockbusters in store like The Nun II and Equalizer 3. Considering AMC’s status as the largest movie theater chain in the world, these blockbusters would allow the company to realize substantial revenues in Q3 which might see it report a second consecutive quarter of profitability. Shorting AMC As is, many investors are shorting AMC stock and buying APE in anticipation of the upcoming conversion. Since AMC is more expensive, and APE stock will be converted into it, it is expected that AMC will decrease in value and APE will increase in value due to the conversion until both meet at a similar price level. However, this dip might be a short-term thing given the bullish sentiment surrounding the conversion deal since it would effectively eliminate the company’s debt. That said, AMC is highly shorted with a short interest of 27.4% and 38.4% of its float on loan and its short interest may continue increasing in the coming days due to the strategy of shorting AMC stock and buying APE ahead of the conversion. In this way, the stock may witness a short squeeze soon thanks to the growing bullish sentiment surrounding the company’s long-term prospects following the approval of its restructuring plan. AMC Financials According to AMC’s Q2 report, the company’s assets decreased from $9.1 billion at the beginning of the year to $8.6 billion due to its cash balance plummeting from $631 million to $435 million. This decrease is likely due to the company paying off its current liabilities which decreased from $1.69 billion to $1.5 billion. On that note, total liabilities experienced a slight decrease from $11.76 to $11.25. When it comes to revenue, AMC experienced a YoY increase from $1.16 billion to $1.34 billion due to marginal improvements in ticket sales which increased from $651 million to $744 million, and FNB sales which increased from $396.7 million to $488.2 million. During this time, expenses increased slightly from $1.18 billion to $1.26 billion as a result of increases in depreciation and merger/acquisition costs as well as film exhibition costs. Having said that, AMC managed to achieve profitability for the first time in 4 years this quarter going from a $121.6 million net loss in Q2 2022 to a $9 million net profit in Q2 2022 as a result of its improved revenue. Technical Analysis AMC stock was in a bullish trend as it was trading in an upwards channel which it has broken after the approval of its plan. Looking at the indicators the stock is below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bearish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is oversold at 24 and the MACD is starting to curl bullishly. As for the fundamentals, AMC recently resolved its legal battle with a settlement that will allow it to move forward with its plan to raise capital to deal with its debt situation. In this way, any fears of the movie theater chain going bankrupt should be alleviated. With the stock at 52-week lows, the current PPS could be a good entry point as the drop in after-hours last Friday may have been an overreaction. AMC Forecast Thanks to the recently approved settlement, AMC’s mounting debt crisis is likely behind it and the movie theater giant can now build on its successful Q2 where it returned to profitability for the first time in 4 years. Considering the successful releases of Barbie and Oppenheimer in Q3 as well as the anticipated releases of The Nun II and Equalizer 3 later this quarter, the company may be poised to post a second consecutive quarter of profitability which would boost the stock price significantly. Considering the stock’s growing short interest due to the strategy of shorting AMC stock and buying APE stock ahead of the conversion, a short squeeze may occur with more positive developments from the company – especially since it intends to start raising capital in mid-August.
NYSE:AMC
by Penny_Stocks_Today
Could this REALLY be it?No more time for anymore TA at this point. GOD SPEED TO ALL THE APES. I bought my first 2 shares on december 9th of 2021. I expect news in premarket and it would fit percetly after the heavy beat down 'supposedly' caused by our very own Adam Arno. He posted a two-page letter directed to the investors which caused a lot of backlash on twitter. People immediatly expected a dump, which imo was AAs objective. The people now had an explanation on why this beat down took place! I think the post was mostly pre written for this type of event. This is purely speculation. I expect positive court news on monday in pre market which would then spark the next buying spree sening AMC higher. Sounds good but why would Goldman Sachs name this exact price target. Is it really just fib levels or are they expecting retail to have their eyes on these levels? If retail expects AMC class A common shares to be trading at 175$, I would expect Hedgefunds (including banks) to dump a little before. 140$ maybe? Or Could it be that they expect AMC+APE trading at roughly 17.50$ pre-reverse split which would take the price of the new AMC class A common share to 175$. What I want to make clear is that we really don't know. We can only make guesses and predictions based on information we take in and we have to be honest now. AMC only ran in these type of enviroments and now that the narratives flip more bullish, it paves the way for the next meme-stock rallye! I can't wait to hear from judge Zurn!
NYSE:AMCLong
by deradanatellermachtsatt
6
Bullish on AMC. Read BelowThere has to be some major volume moves happening within the next few days to make or break this moment for all apes that have been patiently holding for almost 2 years. This stock in particular has been hovering the threshold list for quite some time. With the recent court ruling giving way to the short run we had to the $8 dollar mark. I am confident something in the works is brewing. Crazy things have been happening lately with the FTD's, Naked Shorts, cost to borrow fees, and overall volatility conditions.
NYSE:AMCLong
by TheR6Whale
AMC Decending Broading WedgeLooks to be a break of the long term resistance line we have tested multiple times in the past. Huge surge in volume as we broke the structure, which has now decreased as price has come back to test the trendline. Cautious here as we have broken the decending resistance line before only to come straight back down into the structrue. However, note the volume spikes each time we push up to test the top of the wedge and this has been huge this time around. Sadly the run was stopped just under 9$ which is a histroical support line turned resistance. No surprise we got stopped here. Really need some more momentum to come through now to confirm any move up. We have held a good base in the 4$ range for months now and volume spiked as soon as we dropped below that, bringing us back into the range. Obviously we could see moves down if the settlement is approved and C R/S goes ahead. This whole RS and APE conversion to AMC is difficult and throwing me off here. If we see some more momentum and settlement is not approved soon then we can move higher. I hope this is the case but we never know with this stock..
NYSE:AMC
by webba008