Crude Oil**CrudeOil:**
The price hovered around the EMA200 last week.
The price is expected to rise to the top of the channel, zona dos 81.00 / 81.60.
QM1! trade ideas
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilwti crude oil
The chart and my drawn wave outlook is the low probability thesis. More probable is a continuation of the trading range 68-78 or 70-80, whatever price you find more appealing, same outcome.
bull case: Bulls still prevented bears from a strong move down, as they had the last months, after a rally and we are still trading above the daily 20ema. We formed a trading range after the bull spike and i adjusted the lower wedge trend line which could hold but for that, bulls need to start the week strong and have immediate follow through. They still want to trade to 80 and touch the upper bear trend line which has started 2022-03.
bear case: Bears see a good looking bear bar from Friday and want follow through selling on Monday to get back below the daily 20ema. If they can break the ema and the bull wedge trend line, they have a good chance of a reversal back down to 70.
outlook last week: “sideways to up - invalid below 75”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.46 and now we are at 76.49. the week was mostly sideways. if bears can push below 75 i say i was wrong but so far oil is above the important support prices
short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower
medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
A Renko Trading Strategy - Part 3Part 3: Patterns in Renko Charts
Renko charts, like other charting methods, have identifiable patterns that traders look for as indicators of potential market movements. These patterns are appreciated for their simplicity and effectiveness in highlighting trends and reversals without the noise of minor price movements. Here are some common patterns observed in Renko charts, applicable across various markets:
1. Trend Patterns
Uptrend/Downtrend: Consecutive bricks of the same color indicate a trend. An uptrend is shown by a series of green (or white) bricks, while a downtrend is depicted by red (or black) bricks. The more consecutive bricks, the stronger the trend.
2. Reversal Patterns
Double Top and Double Bottom: These patterns occur when the price reaches a certain level twice but fails to break through. In Renko charts, a double top is indicated by the bricks failing to move higher after reaching a high point twice, suggesting a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. Similarly, a double bottom indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Head and Shoulders (and Inverse): This pattern is harder to spot in Renko charts due to their simplified nature but can still be identified. A head and shoulders pattern indicates a reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, while an inverse head and shoulders suggests a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
3. Consolidation Patterns
Rectangles: These occur when bricks alternate colors within a range, indicating market consolidation or a period of indecision. A breakout from this pattern can indicate the direction of the next significant move.
4. Breakout Patterns
Support and Resistance Breakouts: Renko charts clearly show support (a level where price consistently finds a floor) and resistance (a ceiling where price tends to top out). A breakout occurs when bricks pass through these levels, potentially indicating the start of a new trend.
Strategy Implications
Patterns in Renko charts can be used to devise trading strategies:
Entry Points: Patterns like breakouts from consolidation ranges or reversals can provide clear entry points.
Exit Points: Recognizing the end of a trend pattern or the completion of a reversal pattern can serve as a signal to exit a position to maximize gains or minimize losses.
Stop-Loss Placement: Patterns can help identify significant levels for placing stop-loss orders, such as below a recent bottom in an uptrend or above a recent top in a downtrend.
Advantages and Limitations
The advantage of using Renko charts and identifying these patterns lies in the chart's ability to filter out minor price movements, making it easier to spot meaningful trends and reversals. However, because time and volume are not considered, Renko charts may not always reflect the full picture of market dynamics. Traders often use them in conjunction with other analysis tools to make more informed decisions.
These patterns, while straightforward in theory, require practice to identify effectively and use within a comprehensive trading strategy.
Part 4: Incorporating Patterns with Strategy
to-follow
A Renko Trading Strategy - Part 2Part 2: Devising a Strategy with Renko
Devising a trading strategy using Renko charts with three different brick sizes for the same market, like crude oil, and analyzing them on the same time scale can provide insights into market trends and momentum at various levels. The following is one of many possible approaches:
1. Choose Brick Sizes
Select three different brick sizes that represent short-term, medium-term, and long-term market movements. For example:
Short-term: 10 ticks
Medium-term: 25 ticks
Long-term: 50 ticks
These sizes could be chosen based on the volatility of the market and your trading goals.
2. Set Up Charts Side by Side
Prepare three Renko charts for crude oil, each with one of the chosen brick sizes. Analyzing them side by side or simultaneously will allow you to get insight into how they compare within the same time.
3. Define Your Strategy
A strategy could involve looking for confluence among the charts, where signals on multiple brick sizes align, indicating a stronger trend or reversal. Here’s a potential approach:
Trend Confirmation: A trend appears on the long-term chart (50 ticks), and you look for entries when the medium-term (25 ticks) chart aligns with this trend. The short-term chart (10 ticks) can provide specific entry points that minimize risk, as you're entering on minor pullbacks or consolidations within a larger confirmed trend.
Trend Reversals: If the short-term chart shows a reversal pattern not yet visible on the medium- or long-term charts, it could be an early signal. Confirm this signal if the reversal starts to appear on the medium-term chart, suggesting a more significant shift in market sentiment.
Divergence: If the short-term chart diverges from the medium- and long-term trends, it might indicate a potential reversal or a weakening trend. Use this information cautiously to either take profits from existing positions or prepare for a trend change.
4. Implement Risk Management
Regardless of the signals, always have a clear risk management strategy. Decide on stop-loss levels and take-profit points based on the chart that you're using for entry signals. For example, if you're entering based on the short-term chart, you might set tighter stop-loss levels than if you're entering based on medium-term signals.
5. Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment
The effectiveness of this strategy can vary over time due to changes in market volatility and conditions. Regularly review and adjust the brick sizes and strategy parameters as needed to align with the current market environment.
6. Example Strategy Execution
Entry: Enter a trade when all three charts show a clear trend in the same direction. For example, if all charts show an uptrend, consider taking a long position.
Exit: Consider exiting or taking profit if the short-term chart shows a significant reversal pattern, even if the medium- and long-term charts still indicate an uptrend. This could preempt a broader market reversal.
Conclusion
This multi-scale Renko chart strategy allows for a nuanced view of market dynamics, combining the clarity of trend confirmation with the sensitivity to early reversal signals. By integrating signals from different time perspectives, you can make more informed decisions and potentially improve the risk-reward ratio of your trades.
Part 3: Patterns in Renko Charts
to-follow
A Renko Trading StrategyPart 1: A Brief Overview
In traditional Renko charts, time does not play a role in when a new brick is printed; bricks are purely based on price movement reaching a specified threshold. However, some variations and adaptations of Renko charts integrate time or other criteria to align more closely with certain trading strategies or preferences.
Tradingview combines elements of time-based filtering with the price movement criteria of standard Renko charts. By allowing someone to set not only the size of the brick (representing the minimum price movement required to print a new brick) but also the length of time the price must remain beyond this threshold to validate the brick, this approach introduces a hybrid element to the construction of Renko charts.
This modification can help to filter out even more noise by ensuring that only price movements that are sustained for the specified period contribute to the formation of the chart. It could be particularly useful for traders looking to avoid false signals that might result from brief, sharp price movements that don't represent a true change in market sentiment.
Incorporating time into Renko charts can make them somewhat more similar to traditional time-based charting methods, providing a hybrid that retains the noise-filtering benefits of Renko while adding an extra layer of confirmation to the price moves. This can be a valuable tool for traders who wish to fine-tune their analysis by considering both significant price changes and the persistence of these changes over time.
The size of the brick in Renko charts directly influences the chart's sensitivity to price changes, and as a consequence, it indirectly affects its sensitivity to time as well, although time is not explicitly considered in traditional Renko chart construction.
A larger brick size makes the chart less sensitive to price movements. This is because a larger price change is required to add a new brick to the chart, which can lead to fewer bricks being printed over a given period. This reduction in sensitivity means that minor price fluctuations are effectively filtered out, highlighting more significant trends. Consequently, when you use a larger brick size, the chart might appear similar across different time frames because only substantial price movements are recorded, and these are less frequent.
With WTI s an example, setting the brick size to 25 ticks filters out all price movements that are smaller than this. Whether you're looking at a 1-minute or an 11-minute timeframe, the chart will only update when the price moves by 25 ticks or more from the last brick. If the market is relatively stable or if price changes are within this 25-tick range, the Renko chart will remain unchanged, making the chart appear similar across these different time observations.
This characteristic of Renko charts makes them particularly useful for identifying and trading based on longer-term trends, as it diminishes the impact of short-term volatility and noise. The choice of brick size is a fundamental decision for traders using Renko charts, as it needs to balance the desire to filter out insignificant price movements with the need to capture meaningful market moves timely.
Part 2: Devising a Strategy with Renko
to follow
MCX Crudeoil WTI (Mar-24 Fut) View in upcoming days By StoxWarewww.tradingview.com
Today, Crudeoil encountered a massive selling rally. Here are the possible levels of reversal:
6250 / 6200 /6080 / 6000
Crude Oil at peak(For now...)
Crude has been trending up since the beginning of February and there continues to be a strong demand fundamentally in the market.
Although we seem to have a price ceiling in the market currently around ~$79/BL, I believe that oil will continue to rise due to ongoing geopolitical influences.
Oil will continue to trade range bound but Demand Zones will continue to hold unless supporting data indicates otherwise.
In the grand scheme of things, Oil is priced reasonably compared to its highest points in history. We can continue to look for the price action to approach this point longer-term.
Reverse Analysis of USOIL: Anticipating a Decline in PriceRecent observations indicate that USOIL has reached a crucial resistance level at $78.16. Conducting a thorough analysis, particularly focusing on the 1-hour chart, suggests a potential downturn towards the support level at $76.60.
The attainment of the $78.16 resistance level signals a critical juncture in the price action of USOIL. Historically, this level has proven to be a formidable barrier to further upward movement, often triggering a reversal in price trajectory. As such, it is imperative to carefully consider the implications of this resistance level and its potential impact on future price movements.
Examining the 1-hour chart reveals several indicators supporting the likelihood of a downward price correction. Firstly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillators indicate overbought conditions, suggesting that buying momentum may be reaching exhaustion. Additionally, other technical indicators such as moving averages and volume analysis further reinforce the notion of a potential reversal in price direction.
Moreover, broader market factors contribute to the bearish outlook. Concerns over global economic growth, coupled with uncertainties surrounding supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions, could exert downward pressure on oil prices in the near term. Furthermore, any adverse developments in key oil-producing regions or shifts in investor sentiment may exacerbate the downward momentum.
Given these factors, it is prudent to anticipate a decline in USOIL prices towards the support level at $76.60. However, it is essential to remain vigilant and monitor price action closely for any signs of confirmation or reversal. Key levels to watch include psychological support levels, trendlines, and major moving averages, as these may influence market sentiment and price behavior.
In conclusion, the reverse analysis of USOIL, considering the resistance level at $78.16 on the 1-hour chart, suggests a potential downward movement towards the support level at $76.60. This assessment underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis and vigilance in navigating the dynamic landscape of commodity markets, particularly in identifying key support and resistance levels and anticipating potential price reversals.
Inflation vs. Oil The price of crude oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) is currently facing downward pressure, receiving no support from the current geopolitical landscape, at least for the time being. It appears that the dynamics of inflation are exerting greater influence over the market. The decline in commodity prices could be interpreted as an indication that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, potentially leading to speculation about a weakening of the US dollar ( TVC:DXY ).
The dollar Oil2.21.24 There is a free video at Greg Hunter uSA watchdog With martin Armstrong, I would recommend that you listen to it. I ran out of time I'll try to follow up with something useful tomorrow.
USOIL- LongAs of the current observation, USOIL is trading at $77.12. A comprehensive analysis, particularly focusing on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Stochastic indicator on the 4-hour chart, suggests substantial upward pressure, indicating a potential ascent towards the resistance level at $78.20.
The RSI Stochastic oscillator, a widely regarded momentum indicator, reflects the strength and velocity of price movements. When assessing its behavior on the 4-hour timeframe, it becomes apparent that bullish sentiment is gaining momentum. This is indicative of increased buying pressure within the market, potentially driving USOIL prices towards higher levels.
The significance of the resistance level at $78.20 cannot be overstated. Historically, it has served as a pivotal point, often acting as a barrier to further upward movement. However, given the prevailing bullish momentum as indicated by the RSI Stochastic analysis, there is a strong possibility that this resistance level may be breached.
Several factors contribute to this bullish outlook. Firstly, macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and global demand dynamics continue to exert upward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, ongoing market sentiment, investor positioning, and technical factors all align to support the upward trajectory anticipated by the RSI Stochastic analysis.
It is essential to monitor key developments closely, particularly any shifts in supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, or changes in market sentiment, as these could potentially alter the trajectory of USOIL prices. However, based on the current technical indicators and market conditions, a prudent approach would involve preparing for a potential bullish movement towards the $78.20 resistance level.
In conclusion, the in-depth analysis of USOIL, focusing on the RSI Stochastic indicator on the 4-hour chart, suggests a strong inclination towards upward price movement, with a notable target at the $78.20 resistance level. This assessment underscores the importance of thorough analysis and informed decision-making in navigating the dynamic landscape of commodity markets.
CL/WTI Continuation of Trend - Buy the DipHourly Chart Continuation of Trend
No Divergence, Buy on Retracement
Target TP resistance area 79-80
1:2 RR Trade
Crude Oil - Elliott Wave count to the upsideAs long as 76.90 holds, then this count has a chance. For the best EW analysis on planet earth, please check out ElliottWaveTrader .net
OIL breaking upOIL is ready to go up
Sentiment and COT data is well positioned, fundamentals checked.
Technically it's in a good spot, with short term trendline broken
I'm considering that there will be extra volatiliy (undecisive price action) because US market is closed.
But as soon as you see a good low entry point or confirmation tomorrow at NY session, enter the trade.
After reaching profit, try to old part of the trade a couple of weeks until 4th of March if you can, it has a high winning rate looking at seasonality.
Price rejecting key areaPrice retesting the small supply area after rejecting aggressively resistance area and continue their movement downwards.
WTI crude looks set to bounceMomentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term).
A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for a technical bounce. Moreover, bears entered around the January highs but volumes declined as prices fell to suggest the move is running out of steam, and RSI (2) was oversold on Friday.
The bias is for a bounce towards the weekly and monthly pivot points around 74.50 - 74.80 whilst prices remain above Monday's low.
Accumulation before the level, free zone after the levelAccumulation before the level, free zone after the level
#202408 - a weekly priceaction market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well.
I try to keep it simple stupid (KISS) here with my chart this week.
bull case: bulls created a credible bottom around 70 and the buying pressure is there to get to 80 for the first time since 2023-11-07. There is a measured move target from the first leg i drew to around 82, the upper wedge trend line goes there and the big bear trend line starting from 2022-03 goes into that area as well. Decent enough probabilities if bulls can trade above 80 to also get to 82.
bear case: Bears see it as a trading range and bulls did not have a weekly close above 80 since 2023-11. They want a continuation of the range and sell everything above 78 because it has been working for 4 months now. Their first target is to trade below 77 and then a retest of the daily 20ema at 75. Bears have confidence in their assessment, because the bull legs in this trading range look much weaker than the bear legs.
outlook last week: “sideways (odds favor a small pullback) then up for targets 79-81”
→ Market was at 76.61 and is now at 78.46, so a good outlook since we got a decent dip to 75.6 before a big rally to 78.46
short term: sideways to up - invalid below 75
medium-long term: sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
Crude**CrudeOil:**
The price resisted the EMA200 all week, on Friday it broke through and closed above it.
The price is expected to rise to the top of the channel and do a pull back to the lower.
CL Daily Chart and range bound area The Daily chart shows the first corrective impulse lower from the highs and the ensuing consolidation which is visible
The target's from the weekly chart are still visible and need a close above $66/$83 to push into the draw boxes otherwise its more of the same within the range
i will post a 4 hourly chart see if we can dig deeper.
remember this is just wave analysis and price action and susceptible all the jaw boning that exists in the CL markets.
supply demand supply and demand zone drawn on CL quote. this is my own idea and opinion. use this idea at your own risk
