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CRUDEOIL UPDATE || JUNE 18- 19Crude Oil Update: Potential Bullish Move on the Horizon (Informative) Heads up, commodity traders! Crude oil is currently exhibiting bullish signals, suggesting a potential price increase. Here's a breakdown for your reference: Target: 6840 (This is the level the price might reach if the bullish trend continues) Stop-Loss: 6760 (This is a pre-determined price point where you would automatically sell your position to limit potential losses) Keep an eye on relevant news and events that might impact the crude oil market. This can help you make more informed trading decisions.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
1
Three Simple Technical Narratives Driving Crude OilPlease note that the chart above is the continuous front-month Crude, and we are referencing the August contract below. Crude Oil (August) Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11 August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61**** Pivot: 78.11 Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. comment: After Monday there was no question that bulls took control again and the bear trend is over. Bears now fight to keep this a lower high and retest the 72.48 low but for now, market is in balance around 78. Bulls want to break out of the bear channel and test 80 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 72-79 bull case: Strong week by the bulls with 3 pushes up but still a lower high. Their next target is to get back above 80.22. Right now they have momentum going but big down, big up mostly creates confusion and that means trading range. Above 79.5 I will probably long for 80. They need to stay above 77 or odds favor a retest of the lows below 74. Invalidation is below 77. bear case: Huge bear surprise the week before and now a big bull surprise. Most reasonable thing here is for the market to move more sideways, probably still inside the very big triangle 73 - 81.5. If bears get below 77, they want to retest the lows below 74, which is also what I think has the slightly better odds next week but I would wait for confirmation. Invalidation is above 80.6. outlook last week: “Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. I will watch the price action and give daily updates here on substack and intraday in my trading room.” → Last Sunday we traded 75.53 and now we are at 78.45. I said we will hit the daily 20ema which was 140 upwards. On Monday there was no question we will get there, so I hope you made some. Did not expect bears to just disappear afterwards and let the market trade above for the whole week. short term: Neutral right under the bear channel line and daily ema at 77.5. Can break to either side. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. —unchanged current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted both two-legged corrections to fit the current pattern better but the C target is very questionable as of now. We need more price action to know where market wants to go from here.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CL / Crude Oil ShortContext: • Monthly: First signs of bearish orderflow. Bearish FVG in the making • Weekly: Bearish FVGs getting respeced • Daily: Rejection and break below prev. day low. Caution because of two bullish FVGs Idea: • 1h-4h Mitigation Block with 1h close below prev day low. • Respecting 1h FVgs • Inside current 1h candle on 15min closed last 15min bullish FVG • Potentially building a balanced price range on 15min → Long around prev. day low about 77.88 Target: • 1st would be currend day low • 2nd: Upper limit of daily FVG at 77.22 Entry / Stop: • Reversal Setup with stop above the entry signal • Or at 77.88 with stop about 78.05 Signal invalidated: • breaking lower withoug looking back • Prive going above 78.05 I want the current 15min-Candle to close inside the range of the previous 15min candle. Be careful about News in about 30minutes! Please feel free to comment
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by MichaelBw
Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines. The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into. Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Crude Futures Push Above The 200 DMATechnical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures are rebounding in 2024 after trading above the 200-day moving average at $77.54. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, while the 9-day moving average trades below the 18-day. DMI- is slightly above DMI +, indicating that the market is still in a correction phase, while the Average True Range declines to $1.77 daily, showing an uptick in volatility. API Inventories Decline API Inventory has decreased recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a decline of 2.4 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 455 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Midwest show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 42 million barrels. Middle East Tensions Rise The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have increased recently, indicating the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. Traders will remain focused on inflation data, inventory productions, and the direction of economic data. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG ABOVE DAILY SWING EQ...?NYMEX:CL1! "To succeed...You need to find something to hold on to, something to motivate you, something to inspire you." -Tony Dorsett Family, Summer is officially here and I hope everyone is well and in gr8 spirits. Here I am going to give you a detailed narrative as to why I believe we can capitalize LONG on OIL this week juss above Daily Swing EQ Level and Target 70.5% Fib Level Which is the EQ Level of the overall 4Hr Supply Zone.... Risky however still HIGH Probable...Vibe w/me 1) The 1st confirmation I want to see is price break the last 4Hr Swing High ($76.25) and head towards the EQ Fib level ($76.55)/ 4Hr Supply Zone... 2) Now what happens next is what will determine if we go LONG or not.... The only thing that makes me slightly hesitant in taking this LONG is the fact we have an ascending iR/LQ Trendline currently that buyers have created and I know for a fact Sellers need to sweep this liquidity the question is when will they do it? 3) Once we break above the Fib EQ level ($76.55) I need to see a candle closure above price on the 30m TF & Below... However Price could very much so close above inside the 4Hr Supply then sellers step in and drop price to sweep the iR/LQ then buyers push price rii back up above EQ Level... SO its case by case scenario lets just await and see what happens... Ill keep update as PA prints.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG ABOVE DAILY SWING EQ...?NYMEX:CL1! 1) The 1st confirmation I want to see is price break the last 4Hr Swing High ($76.25) and head towards the EQ Fib level ($76.55)/ 4Hr Supply Zone... 2) Now what happens next is what will determine if we go LONG or not.... The only thing that makes me slightly hesitant in taking this LONG is the fact we have an ascending iR/LQ Trendline currently that buyers have created and I know for a fact Sellers need to sweep this liquidity the question is when will they do it? 3) Once we break above the Fib EQ level ($76.55) I need to see a candle closure above price on the 30m TF & Below... However Price could very much so close above inside the 4Hr Supply then sellers step in and drop price to sweep the iR/LQ then buyers push price rii back up above EQ Level... SO its case by case scenario lets just await and see what happens... Ill keep update as PA prints.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Impending rise for oil prices?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help. Impending rise for oil prices? WTI crude oil futures held steady around $78 a barrel on Tuesday, after rising 3 percent in the previous session on expectations of increased demand for fuel in the summer. The U.S. government may also fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a faster pace as it aims to buy back oil priced around $79 per barrel. However, I remain cautious as I await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and U.S. inflation data this week. Positive U.S. employment data released on Friday raised concerns that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, which could hurt the economic outlook and energy demand. Markets will be interested in data on U.S. crude oil inventories from the EIA today. OPEC+'s announcement to ease production limits by the end of the year has created much discussion about recent changes in oil prices. But personally, I am not worried because if prices continue to fall, the oil cartel may have to delay or cancel the plan to phase down production as early as August. It would not be surprising if OPEC+ decides to postpone production cuts and announce this decision as early as early August if oil prices remain around $70. Earlier this week, OPEC+ announced that production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day will remain in place until 2025. In addition, voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mbpd will be maintained for another three months until September and then gradually reduced. Lower oil prices are a blow to major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The former needs an oil price above $90 a barrel to balance its budget, while the latter needs an even higher price to support the ongoing military intervention in Ukraine. Although there may be a decrease in oil prices, this is likely to remain subdued during the summer due to seasonal demand that will keep crude stocks in check. In the summer season, we expect sustained demand for oil and a reduction in global inventories from July to September. Therefore, we maintain a positive view on oil prices in the summer months. If you are trying to predict oil prices, there is a highly effective method you can use. Analyze oil producers to determine if their stocks are solid and cheap. With Tradingview you will have an essential tool to properly analyze the fundamental performance of each stock, avoiding costly mistakes. By using Trading View to analyze Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), we can see that the stock is strong and attractively priced, which makes me optimistic about oil prices in the future. My prediction is that oil prices will reach $82 in the next quarter. We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on Tradingview: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Repairing the Damage. What's Next for Oil?The chart above is continuous front-month Crude Oil futures. We are referencing the July contract below. Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.74, up 2.21 WTI Crude Oil futures notched a fantastic start to the week, gaining 2.93%. It is no coincidence the gain comes on the heels of a strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. We have spoken about this often, strong economic data may encourage a risk-off tone by pushing out Fed rate cut projections, but ultimately has a positive impact on Crude Oil in the aftermath. Some of yesterday’s rise could also be credited to consolidation tailwinds ahead of this morning’s OPEC Monthly report that left projections little changed, and prices have initially reacted by coming off session highs. We look to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT. Technically, yesterday’s move to reclaim major three-star resistance at 76.15-76.63, the May lows, has neutralized the early June fallout. As today’s session unfolds into tomorrow’s weekly EIA data, it will be critical for price action to hold out above major three-star support at 76.15-76.25 in order to keep the bulls, in our opinion, with their reestablished edge. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 77.51-77.80***, 78.29-78.16**, 79.32-80.09*** Pivot: 77.35 Support: 76.99*, 76.63**, 76.15-76.25***, 75.53-75.84** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went mostly flat today. Dax sears tried and were rejected again and sp500 and nasdaq made higher lows and lower highs. Markets are forming triangles which means we are in breakout mode again. No surprise moving into CPI and FOMC this week. I expect more sideways movement until then. Commodities all green, while Gold is flat, Oil continued the pull-back big time to get back to 78. Bulls strength surprised me tbh. The pull-back is already too strong for the bear trend to continue much further. Oil trading range is probably 72 - 80 for the next weeks. wti crude oil comment: Don’t long at the top of a expanding triangle and after a huge buy climax. In my weekly outlook I wrote that we will hit the daily ema at around 77 again but I obviously did not expect it to be done so fast. Oil was still in a trading range until the breakout above 76.23 but bulls kept at it and the 15m ema held into US close. Since we are at the top of the expanding triangle, I am not interested in buying up here. A pull-back is reasonable here but as of right now, bulls are in full control until bears break below the 15m ema and one should not short into such a strong trend. 78 should be bigger resistance. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 72 - 80 bull case: With today the bear trend concludes imo, since the move was too strong to be part of the bear trend. The 72.48 low could be retested over the next days to weeks but the downside is probably limited to around that area. Bulls want the strong momentum to continue and get most bears stops above 80. It would be insanely strong, if they could break above the bear channel in one giant move over two days. It’s very low probability that this will happen. If it does, we are probably facing an macro event over the next days. Invalid below 70 bear case: Bears gave up above 76.3 and market moved fast to 78. If bears can not keep it below 78, we will probably melt more up to 80. My line in the sand for bears was around 77-77.5 but bulls melted through. Not many arguments for the bears here until they get below the 15m ema and stop the market from making higher highs. short term: Bullish af. If this continues, we see 80 soon. If we see 79 in Globex, the chances of an event are big imo. Something is up. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: I had no interest in buying above 75.5 and under 76.3 but missed the big breakout. Bad trading on my part. Had to get long since bar 9 or latest bar 10.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds