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WTI Crude Oil 6 Month Spread Synthetic

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4A1! trade ideas

Crude oil can hit 9000 mark again in coming 3-4 monthThe recent assassination of a Hamas leader by Israel and Iran's promise of retaliation could escalate tensions into a broader conflict in the Middle East. This situation raises concerns that Iran might block the strategic Strait of Hormuz , a critical chokepoint for global oil trade . Additionally, there are speculations that Iran could test a nuclear device in the coming months, potentially declaring itself a nuclear state. Russia's continuous supply of S-300 and S-400 missile systems to Iran further suggests that something significant may be in the works. These developments could have profound implications for oil markets and global stability.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by iamtanmoy24
Oil slips again and Geopolitical tensions rise In my last post about Oil, I said that "Oil has a good possibility to get back to the range of 83.50 and 84.50", but also "Oil had broken 3 LH's that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024". I also mentioned that "we can see a pullback in the ranges of 78.84 and 77.12". In my outlook at the top of the week, I said that I was on the buyer's side until price showed otherwise. Now, price is showing signs of not continuing buys but settling into seller's territory. In this latest out look, I'm going to give you my insight on where the market can possibly go going into next week. Around early 6AM, price broke the HL from last Friday that shot Oil up all the way to the 77.89 area on this past Monday. On Tuesday, price created the "M" formation signaling that sellers were now starting to step in that sent the market selling for the rest of the week. On today Friday, August 16th, Price hit a demand area that sent price shooting past the HL that i stated early in my typing. This could potentially mean that we are now in seller's territory for a minute depending on how the markets may move going into next week. We did leave a gap above after yesterday's sell movement that can send price back that way from Monday going into Tuesday depending on market conditions. I believe if price goes back that way it can be just to create a LH, IF price doesn't make buying structure. Right now my current outlook is bias until the market finds its footing from Monday-Tuesday. Amid Oil selling from the technical side, Oil is facing rocky streets from fear of the United States economy as investors are getting ready to brace for interest rate cuts and other things going on in different countries. From Fed Powell, to Iran retaliation, and to China's weak economy, Oil is in some unpredictable territory especially with a lot of geopolitical tensions rising. Next week news combined with technicals will give a greater outlook on Oil.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by eightyfourtrades
CRUDEOIL Bullish setup | Aug 14 Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Timeframe: 1 hour Current Situation: Oil prices have increased due to lower US inventories and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, concerns about weak Chinese demand and potential US interest rate hikes are keeping the market cautious. Price Action: Crude oil remains range-bound, moving within a rising wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. Key Levels: Strong Support: 6,640 Resistance/Target: Expecting a 100-point move, targeting yesterday’s high. Invalidation Level: Bullish outlook invalidated below 6,610. Outlook: Watch for a break above 6,640 to confirm bullish momentum and achieve the expected target.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears showed signs of life, rejecting 80 with decent selling. Still an inside bar to Monday and bulls bought it at the bull trend line. Below 78 bears start hoping again, but it’s more reasonable to expect more upside. At the very least a retest of 80 and if bears are strong, they try to keep that resistance. comment: Expected pullback by the bears and bulls bought the bull trend line. Everything in order so far, retest of 80 is expected. If bulls are strong, we will break above for 81 or 82. Below 77.6 bears could get hopeful and again but I doubt it. Daily ema is at 77.2, so that would be their first target. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 77 - 82 bull case: Bulls tried twice at 80.15 and then mostly stepped aside after bears increased the selling pressure on bar 37/38. They bought the bull trend line and want a retest of 80 from here. If they fail to keep it above the bull trend line and 77.6, they risk that 80 was a lower high and bears might try to sell down to 72 again. Since Monday was so strong, more upside is the higher probability outcome over the next days. Invalidation is below 78.6. bear case: Bears generated decent selling pressure and retest the bull trend line. I don’t think they want to fight hard for 79 and will try to keep it below 80 again. If they would manage to break below the bull trend line, their next target would be the daily ema at 77.2. Invalidation is above 79. short term: Bullish above 78.8 for retest of 80. Bearish below 77.6 for more downside. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Sell below bar 37. Can take most off at the double bottom bar 50 + 54 and exit runner once the market reached the bull trend line and refused to trade below it.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
OILUSD/H4 WTI oil fluctuates in the stable range of $70 - $80.OILUSD forecast on August 13, 2024: WTI oil is under pressure from the war and DXY is decreasing. Currently, the oil price has risen from the $71 region back to the $80 area. It is likely that oil will experience a correction before continuing its upward trend. The trading trend today is BUY. Key levels to watch are: 76.5, 78, 80, and 82. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY OILUSD zone 76-76.5 SL 75.5 TP 78 - 80 - 81. Plan 2: BUY OILUSD zone 77.60 - 78.10 SL 77.20 TP 79 - 80 - 81. Plan 3: SELL OILUSD zone 83.30 - 83.50 SL 83.80 TP 82 - 81 - 78.
NYMEX:CL1!
by wetdyerap
Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1! After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by eightyfourtrades
1
Oil Price Pushes Above Opening Range for AugustThe price of oil stages a four-day rally after defending the February low ($71.41) to register a fresh monthly high ($80.16). Crude Oil Price Outlook Keep in mind, the rebound from the monthly low ($71.67) kept the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory, with $80.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar as crude pushes above the opening range for August. A break/close above $83.30 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) opens up the July high ($84.52) but the price of oil may face range bound conditions amid the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA ($78.88). Lack of momentum to hold above the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of oil back towards $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Crude's Big BaseCrude Oil (September) Last week’s close: Settled at 76.84, up 0.65 on Friday and 3.32 on the week Crude Oil futures are higher by about 1% as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East run hot and Israel prepares for an attack by Iran. Inflation data from China Thursday night was also stronger than expected, and there seems to be positive momentum amid such a narrative, and we brace for data on New Loans overnight tonight. Price action in WTI Crude Oil futures finished last week strong, clearing previous resistance, which now creates two areas of major three-star support. The first aligns previous resistance with Thursday’s high at 76.40-76.52. The second is a potential floor aligning with Wednesday’s volume spike and Friday’s low 75.84-75.95. Ultimately, we will be watching our Pivot and point of balance closely, and continued action above this level at 76.84-76.87, will encourage a test towards $80. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 77.63***, 78.88-79.03**, 80.76**, 81.30*** Pivot: 76.84-76.87 Support: 76.40-76.52***, 75.84-75.95***, 75.12-75.27***, 74.45-74.60**, 73.96**, 73.46-73.56**, 72.74-72.94***, 72.23-72.42***, 70.703**, 70.00*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Decoding Money Flow within Markets to Anticipate Price DirectionI. Introduction In the intricate world of financial markets, understanding the flow of capital between different assets is paramount for traders and investors aiming to anticipate price movements. Money doesn't move haphazardly; it often follows patterns and trends influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and inter-market relationships. This article delves into the concept of money flow between markets, specifically analyzing how volume movements in one market can influence price directions in another. Our focus centers on two pivotal markets: the 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN1!) and the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!). Additionally, we'll touch upon other significant markets such as ES1! (E-mini S&P 500 Futures), GC1! (Gold Futures), 6E1! (Euro FX Futures), BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures), and ZC1! (Corn Futures) to provide a comprehensive view. By employing the Granger Causality test—a statistical method used to determine if one time series can predict another—we aim to unravel the nuanced relationships between these markets. Through this exploration, we aspire to equip readers with insights and methodologies that can enhance their trading strategies, particularly in anticipating price directions based on volume dynamics. II. Understanding Granger Causality Granger Causality is a powerful statistical tool used to determine whether one time series can predict another. While it doesn't establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship in the strictest sense, it helps identify if past values of one variable contain information that can predict future values of another. In the context of financial markets, this can be invaluable for traders seeking to understand how movements in one market might influence another. Pros and Cons: Predictive Power: It provides a systematic way to determine if one market’s past behavior can forecast another’s, helping traders anticipate potential market movements. Quantitative Analysis: Offers a statistical basis for analyzing market relationships, reducing reliance on subjective judgment. Lag Dependency: The test is dependent on the chosen lag length, which may not capture all relevant dynamics between the series. Not True Causality: Granger Causality only suggests a predictive relationship, not a true cause-and-effect mechanism. III. Understanding Money Flow via Granger Causality The data used for this analysis consists of daily volume figures for each of the seven markets described above, spanning from January 1, 2018, to the present. While the below heatmap presents results for different lags, we will focus on a lag of 2 days as we aim to capture the short-term predictive relationships that exist between these markets. Key Findings The results of the Granger Causality test are presented in the form of a heatmap. This visual representation provides a clear, at-a-glance understanding of which markets have predictive power over others. Each cell in the matrix represents the p-value of the Granger Causality test between a "Cause" market (row) and an "Effect" market (column). Lower p-values (darker cell) indicate a stronger statistical relationship, suggesting that the volume in the "Cause" market can predict movements in the "Effect" market. Key Observations related to ZN1! (10-Year T-Note Futures): The heatmap shows significant Granger-causal relationships between ZN1! volume and the volumes of several other markets, particularly CL1! (Light Crude Oil Futures), where the p-value is 0, indicating a very strong predictive relationship. This suggests that an increase in volume in ZN1! can reliably predict subsequent volume changes in CL1!, which aligns with our goal of identifying capital flow from ZN1! to CL1! In this case. IV. Trading Methodology With the insights gained from the Granger Causality test, we can develop a trading methodology to anticipate price movements in CL1! based on volume patterns observed in ZN1!. Further Volume Analysis with CCI and VWAP 1. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): CCI is a versatile technical indicator that when applied to volume, measures the volume deviation from its average over a specific period. In this methodology, we use the CCI to identify when ZN1! is experiencing excess volume. Identifying Excess Volume: The CCI value for ZN1! above +100 suggests there is an excess of buying volume. Conversely, when CL1!’s CCI is below +100 while ZN1! is above +100, it implies that the volume from ZN1! has not yet transferred to CL1!, potentially signaling an upcoming volume influx into CL1!. 2. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Predicting Price Direction: If Today’s VWAP is Above Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario indicates that the market's average trading price is increasing, suggesting bullish sentiment. In this case, if ZN1! shows excess volume (CCI above +100), we would expect CL1! to make a higher high tomorrow. If Today’s VWAP is Below Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario suggests bearish sentiment, with the average trading price declining. Here, if ZN1! shows excess volume, we would expect CL1! to make a lower low tomorrow. Application of the Methodology: Step 1: Identify Excess Volume in ZN1!: Using the CCI, determine if ZN1! is above +100. Step 2: Assess CL1! Volume: Check if CL1! is below +100 on the CCI. Step 3: Use VWAP to Confirm Direction: Compare today’s VWAP to yesterday’s. If it’s higher, prepare for a higher high in CL1!; if it’s lower, prepare for a lower low. This methodology combines statistical insights from the Granger Causality test with technical indicators to create a structured approach to trading. V. Case Studies: Identifying Excess Volume and Anticipating Price Direction Case Study 1: May 23, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +265.11 CL1!: CCI was at +12.84. VWAP: Below the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A lower low was made. Case Study 2: June 28, 2024 Charts for this case study are at the top of the article. Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +175.12 CL1!: CCI was at -90.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. Case Study 3: July 11, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +133.39 CL1!: CCI was at +0.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. These case studies underscore the practical application of the trading methodology in real market scenarios. VI. Conclusion The exploration of money flow between markets provides valuable insights into how capital shifts can influence price movements across different asset classes. The trading methodology developed around this relationship, utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to measure excess volume and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to confirm price direction, offers a systematic approach to capitalizing on these inter-market dynamics. Through the case studies, we demonstrated the practical application of this methodology, showing how traders can anticipate higher highs or lower lows in CL1! based on volume conditions observed in ZN1!. Key Takeaways: Granger Causality: This test is an effective tool for uncovering predictive relationships between markets, allowing traders to identify where capital might flow next. CCI and VWAP: These indicators, when used together, provide a robust framework for interpreting volume data and predicting subsequent price movements. Limitations and Considerations: While Granger Causality can reveal important inter-market relationships, it is not without its limitations. The test's accuracy depends on the chosen lag lengths and the stationarity of the data. Additionally, the CCI and VWAP indicators, while powerful, are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools. Traders should remain mindful of the broader market context, including economic events and geopolitical factors, which can influence market behavior in ways that statistical models may not fully capture. Additionally, effective risk management practices are crucial, as they help mitigate potential losses that may arise from unexpected market movements or the limitations of any predictive models. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
Weekly Top Down ANALYSIS, can we SHORT from DAILY SUPPLY...?NYMEX:CL1! “Those times when you get up early and you work hard; those times when you stay up late and you work hard; those times when you don’t feel like working, you’re too tired, you don’t want to push yourself, but you do it anyway; that is actually the dream. That’s the dream. It’s not the destination, it’s the journey.” -Kobe Bryant #24/8 I have a neutral outlook this week on OIL due to the PA on the Weekly on TF... As you can see on the Weekly TF price just rejected the Weekly SWING EQ LEVEL ($74.35) Per Barrel. However when we drop down to the Daily TF, we have now officially entered the DAILY Supply Zone ($76.25) as buyers pushed price up to mitigate the the DAILY SWING EQ LEVEL ($77.00) Per Barrel based off the structure of PA.... NOW, ***THE MILLION DOLLA QUESTION is, Will Daily Supply / Daily EQ Level ($77.00) Per Barrel. HOLD Nd sellers push for lower prices? 1) On the 15m TF if we can get this current 30m Demand to Fail and we get a 15m CHoCh with sellers pushing price down past ($76.48) Per Barrel with confirmed candle closures underneath on the 30m TF N below then I'll be compelled to ENTER SHORT!!! ***Remember this 15M PA is happening all inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone/ 4Hr Supply Zone which means SELLERS are developing the stronger hand and starting to enter the market!!! ***Also we have a iR/LQ Trendline on the 30m TF that I believe is going to be swept to the downside with heavy momentum by sellers and this is essentially the move I am looking to capitalize on... 2) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with. Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TreyHighPwr
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds