a fairly bullish candleBullish candle for gold, silver, platinum, copper etc
Bullish candle for gold, silver, platinum, copper etc
TLT trade ideas
$TLT EXTREMELY BULLISH The 20 year treasury hit a strong monthly support. I believe that the Federal Reserve cut rates sometime in 2024, if this happens this will shoot TLT to match ATH. Investors have priced in the Fed to cut rates in march but I believe it will be later on in the year.
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today.
I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then.
I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
TLT Decade LowTLT has been a popular short trade as the Fed has committed to raising rates throughout 2022-2023 and causing pain in markets. Today, we are starting to approach some extremely critical support zones towards the 2008 recession price point.
I have been considering 2 buy in zones at $88 and potentially a capitulation to $82 (if it even gets that low).
We are still waiting to hear from Powell in regards to further rate hikes, and the market is currently expecting one more hike with no real major cuts for 2024.
I will be looking out for the following statement during the next FOMC:
Powell decides to raise one more time according to the Dot Plot, however state that the comity has reached their goal of sufficiently restrictive territory with no more further rate hikes.
However, he will be adamant that rates will remain higher for longer, and the Fed will monitor live data to make future decisions.
This may be the mark of the bottom for TLT where I will start accumulating.
TLT: Support and resistanceTLT looks very terrible, guess what may be it's time to jump in.
It is going down from last two years, we are at the levels we have not seen in decades.
Looks bullish as of now, but long term(2 to 3years) for sure bullish.
Happy investing.
Cheers.
Long TLTAdding to TLT here as rates likely will get cut sometime soon, which is being priced into the ETF as we speak.
$120 price target from here to be hit in mid/end of 2024.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 29th 91 Short Put... for a .92 credit.
Comments: Laddering out, targeting the 16 delta strike wherever that lies in the expiry.
I may keep laddering out into 2024 on the notion that the Fed cuts rates at some future and currently unknown point in time, but liquidity in these tends to break down as you go further out in time ... .
Opening (IRA): TLT December 29th 90 Short Put... for a 1.20 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in the Dec 29th expiry at a strike better than what I currently have on.
Since I'm in an acquisitional frame of mind with TLT, I'm pretty much going to run with these until they're approaching worthless (i.e., <.05). If I get assigned, I'll proceed to sell call against.
Is this unfinished running flat 4th wave rally? 4/12/2023
Recent upward movements in TLT Treasuries have sparked considerations regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. While there is a prevailing belief that the Fed has concluded its tightening cycle, indications suggest otherwise. Our analysis suggests that the current trend may represent a counter-trend rally, likely persisting until the commencement of the upcoming year.
This observation prompts us to speculate that both traditional market indices and cryptocurrencies may experience further upward momentum, contingent upon critical levels. Employing straightforward Fibonacci tools allows us to pinpoint key levels for monitoring and analyze subsequent market reactions.
The environment of diminishing volatility and the consolidation of price action may contribute to an appreciation of asset values into the initial stages of the coming year. However, it remains crucial to observe potential developments of rising divergences, potentially signaling a market reversal and subsequent sell-off in the latter half of 2024.
This nuanced analysis underscores the importance of closely monitoring market dynamics, key levels, and potential divergences, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the evolving financial landscape.
Estonian :Viimased muudatused TLT riigivõlakirjades on tekitanud juttu selle üle, kuidas Föderaalreserv suhtub intressimääradesse. Kuigi paljud arvavad, et Fed on intressimääradega juba lõpetanud, näitavad meie uurimused, et olukord võib olla keerulisem. Hetkel tõus võib olla vastutuule ralli, mis kestab tõenäoliselt kuni järgmise aasta alguseni.
Selline olukord viitab võimalikele võimalustele nii tavalistes turuindeksites kui ka krüptoraha turul, olenevalt olulistest tasemetest. Lihtsate Fibonacci tööriistade abil üritame tuvastada olulisi tasemeid, mida jälgida, et mõista ja analüüsida, kuidas turg reageerib.
Praegune keskkond, kus volatiilsus väheneb ja hinnad käituvad ühtlaselt, võib tähendada, et vara väärtused tõusevad järgmise aasta alguses. Samas on oluline hoida silma peal muutuvatel mustritel, eriti tõusvatel erinevustel, mis võivad viidata turu pöördele ja müügilainele 2024. aasta teisel poolel.
See analüüs mitte ainult ei aita meil mõista hetke turusuundumusi, vaid näitab ka meie valmisolekut teadliku ja ettenägeliku investeerimisstrateegia poole liikumiseks. Järgides neid suundumusi, hoiame kindlat pilku olulistel tasemetel ja võimalikel erinevustel, et meie investeerimisplaan oleks hästi läbimõeldud.
TLT bullish With a bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe and bouncing off the early 2000’s lows, sets the ground to go for the108 resistance but now until 92.26 becomes the local support.. remember, the economy is not the market.
Rolling (IRA): TLT November 3rd 88 Short Put to January 19th 87... for a .42 credit.
Comments: Received an .88 credit for the 88 (See Post Below); rolling it down and out for a .42 credit. Total credits collected of 1.30.
If I'm going to get assigned, lower is naturally better, even if it's only a strike ... .
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 87 to Jan 19th 86 Short Put... for a .65 credit.
Comments: Down a smidge and out. .76 collected originally. (See Post Below). With the .65 collected for the roll, 1.41 total.
Possible End of Correction in TLT TLT has been in a rally of late. When I bought this at 84 I'd planned to hold longer.
However, this looks suspiciously like an Elliot correction.
Back to a bear bias on bonds.
Update to
Opening (IRA): TLT January 19th 81 Short Put... for a .85 credit.
Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, looking to acquire shares should we get "down there."
I would've erected a rung in shorter duration, but didn't want to do that if I couldn't get in at a strike that was better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 15th 89 Short Put... for a 1.12 credit.
Comments: Squeezing in another rung in the December monthly at the 28 delta 89 strike ... .
Since I'm getting kind of a spaghetti works here, will primarily look to add in the 45 DTE weeklies and manage the rest of the pasta as duration in those positions shortens.
Opening (IRA): TLT Oct/Nov/Dec Short Put LadderComments: Targeting the 16 delta strike here in successive expiries to generate free cash flow and emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper.
October 20th 89: .77 credit.
November 17th 87: .76 credit.
December 15th 86: .84 credit.
Since these aren't paying buckets of cash on a per contract basis, I'll look to manage these on extrinsic approaching worthless either by closing them out in profit or rolling for credit and duration to reduce my cost basis further.
Big Bounce in TLT Possible HereThis has been in a crash of late and got a lot of attention for it but we're getting close to the levels where often even in a downtrend a big bounce is due.
With the caveat that this can rug if supports are broken, there's high RR long ops in this area.
Opening (IRA): TLT Nov/Dec 86/84 Short PutsComments: Targeting the 16 delta strikes in November and December to erect rungs at strikes better than what I currently have on to emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper.
November 17th 86: .83 credit
December 15th 84: .79 credit
Here, I'm fine with getting assigned and proceeding to sell short call against, but want to get in at the biggest discount the market will let me get away with because at some point, you know they're going to cut. Naturally, this may be months out in time ... .
TLTRetesting the support breakdown level as well as the weekly 20 ema & the 0.618 retracement from the recent decline. This chart looks similar to around this same time last year imo. Multi-week run up early Q4 back into the same levels mentioned previously. We'll see if we get the same result.
Treasury Bond ETF $TLT Trade IdeaNASDAQ:TLT is showing bullish momentum in its price action.
We see here that today, we closed above the previous high. The price seems to be entering the bullish gap area, and if it does continue the upward movement it could close the gap and reach $93 fairly quickly. $93 is also a resistance level, and we cloud also see a pullback in price around there.
if NASDAQ:TLT however breaks out above that $93 resistance, we could see it move up into the 2nd bullish gap above and to the diagonal resistance level at around $96-97. This resistance level has been tested numerous times as per the chart.
If the price is to continue moving up, it is important for the next daily candle to close in the green box area or above it.
Key moving averages are sloping up, but the bullish MA crossover structure is not complete yet.
Oscillators are also showing overbought so must be careful in the short term once and if we hit $93 in the short term.
Hope this was helpful to the readers.
Good luck with your trading!
TLT: Bearish Bat with Bearish DivergenceThere is a Bearish Bat with Bearish Divergence on the TLT, which could perhaps be signaling that the 20-year Bond Auction is going to demand higher yield than the current level.
Its still all bout bondsThis chart may help you a lot in understanding the bonds.
It seems to be pretty accurate ;)
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 86 Short Put to Dec 15th 85... for a .32 credit.
Comments: Rolling down and out where it makes sense; out "as is" where it doesn't. Collected .83 originally (See Post Below). With the .32 here, 1.15 total.
I'm generally looking to try to avoid taking on shares above my current cost basis for the shares I've been assigned already and/or to take on shares at the best possible price that the market allows.
