$TLT when Burry shorts...It's time to rethink my calls...not that one person is always right, but it would be dumb not to consider it. Going to likely pull out of my calls tomorrow...
TLT trade ideas
Rolling (IRA): TLT July 144 Covered Calls to August 143... for an .80/contract credit.
Notes: With the 144's at 50% max, rolling out and down to the 28 delta strike in August. Total credits collected of 7.93/contract (See Post Below) versus a short call value of 1.61 = realized gain of 6.32 so far. I last acquired at around 110/share, so am fine here with being called away (even though I don't think that's going to happen). Similarly, I'm fine with collecting short call premium + the dividends, which are nothing to write home about -- the May 3rd dividend was a whopping $20.31 per one lot.
Long Term Bond Prices FallingWe have break out of what appears to be a bear flag on TLT today. Next level of support after this break up appears to be around $128 and $122.
CPI report today confirms fears of inflation, thus bonds prices will fall and yields will rise.
The Bond Bear Market is just beginning!The Bond Market will continue to sell off as this inflationary cycle continues! These are my next target but I think this is just the beginning.
TLT20 sma crossed the 50 sma last week. Keep an eye on bonds early this month. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 100 sma test sometime in May. Inverted h&s target around $146 if above $140.
Rolling (IRA): TLT June 18th 145 Calls to July 144... for a .71/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls (i.e., shares of stock + short call). (See Post Below). With the 145's converging on 50% max, rolling out to the July 144's (28 delta) for a .71/contract credit. Total credits collected of 7.13 versus a short call value of 1.49 = realized gains of 5.64/contract so far on the short call premium end of the stick since December.
Rates down...FED sets lowerFED is setting low rates, its a short market. So dont buy 'on price'. Weekly charts shows a pretty clear setup.
I am not personally shorting, but that is a matter of capital placement including returns in crypto.
20 YR Bonds, Interest at these levelsLooks like investors are slowly but surely moving into safe assets such as bonds as we have currently hit bottom and can see some slow consolidation before a breakout.
TLT - Monthly pivot break upAre they going to try and bust this through the Monthly Pivot (white line)?
Lets see...
a hedge to taxes what to do with a %43.3 capitol gains tax
buy nontaxable assets like government bonds
when the demand for those bonds goes up so will TLT
this is on the weekly and the MACD and RSI both look like it is time to go long
when big money catches on to this method the options chain can go crazy
Stocks To Watch 21/04/2021These are the stocks that I'm looking at for tonight open.
Shorting AAPL below 135 Strike
Shorting HD below 340 Strike
Shorting TGT below 220 Strike
Buying TLT above 138 Strike
TLT is about to resume the down-trendDown-trend on TLT is about to resume with a target around 122, so I am excepting long side of a yield curve to go event further up and eventually exceed 3%. I like Lacy Hunt's arguments for deflation/not inflation in the long term. But as he also mentioned, it is a norm at the moment to expect a short term inflation pressure.
I believe a 5 wave structure is unwinding since 5th of April, 2020 on TLT chart, with 4th wave potentially just completed. Wave 2 had triangle structure, so wave 4 is expected to form a zig-zag , exactly is it actually happened. So it is ready for the next move down towards 122.
Watch TLT/JNK chart which I found very interesting, it gives an idea about a turning point when market is going to turn from risk to save assets. Most likely it will be in sync with completion of DXY correction (started in 2017), so both $ and bond will go up after then.
TLT Bouncing -- Yields ? DXY ? Gold ? Equities? This potential bounce in TLT could be big shift for market. Bonds inverse yields.
Treasury Bond ETF Smashes Into 50-day SMABonds have bounced in the last month, but now the bears may be coming back.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF jumped to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday. It was the first test of the SMA since the beginning of the year.
Second, TLT moves in the opposite direction as the CBOE 30-year Treasury Bond Yield Index (TYX). Yesterday it held an upward-sloping trendline that began on January 4. Also notice how a kicker candlestick pattern may be taking shape, with a quick bounce from the low:
Finally, yesterdayโs data could favor more downside in TLT because initial jobless claims, retail sales and Fed surveys suggested the economy is rebounding sharply. The numbers were so strong that the Atlanta Fedโs GDPNow estimate for Q1 growth was revised up from 6.2 percent to 8.3 percent.
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Running into resistance soon.TLT has been walking up this trendline since about mid March but watch out, the pink line is a well established longterm trend that could prove to be major resistance. If that trendline holds we could see a reversal in bonds which would cause a rise in rates.
$TLT Suddenly in Bullish Setup as CPI, Auction Avoid DisasterDon't look now but long bonds are suddenly pressing the top of a bullish ascending triangle after a strong 30-year auction.
TLT Best buy for at least one yearThis chart shows a very clear and strong trend on TLT on a multi-year basis. Every time the price hits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1W time-frame), it finds a long-term Support and rises. This is accompanied by a MACD Bullish Cross. See who the Channel's Fibs are also playing their role as Supports. Can this be the new long-term Support in TLT's attempt to break above the 1.5 extension?
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๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต: $TLT / $SPY Monthly. Key TestAll the way back down to blue TL. Could we see a reaction and get a #bond bounce?
$TNX $ZN_F $GLD $GC_F $GDX $DXY $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NQ_F $DIA #Trading #Stocks #StockMarket ๐
TLT/JNK Ratio vs SPX. Sell in May and go awayStrong correlation between 20 yr bond and high yield junk bonds.
market tends to enter volatility when this ratio bottoms/breaks out
