TLT trade ideas
$TLT: Time for the bond market to wake up TLT at its trend line support, peak volumes, macd looks ready to curl up, last 3 times rsi was this low we saw a considerable bounce, plus a good cpi report on Thursday should provide the catalyst needed to cause a bounce in the bond markets.
Bad day for TLTTLT has lost its uptrend, and lost the 200D EMA.
There's a very long term support line at $94, perhaps we'll get a bounce here that keeps things level until we get the next rate cut.
I'm out of TLT for now, will look to rebuy when I see something that looks like a bottom, or around Halloween in anticipation of a run up leading into the Nov FOMC.
Anyone have ideas on why TLT is falling during a period of rate cuts?
Are we so far ahead of the game that we know rate cuts will ignite inflation, which will push TLT down?
.. or is the international community pulling away from US treasuries, reducing demand.. and the next wave of inflation gets driven by global TBill sales?
Your thoughts are welcome below.
TLT wave 1 down or wave DThe chart posted is the TLT I posted this forecast back at 101 where I went Long PUTS I covered All puts at 97.9 . I will Now move to a 50 to 60 % net Long CALLS at 95.00 even Now and look for a wave 2 or a biggger rally in wave E up
$TLT Crash BottomWe have an extremely strange set of circumstances where the "Fed" is "Cutting Rates" and has promised and said to have "delivered" a soft Landing.
All the while the number one contributing factor to inflation is Wage Inflation. This unchecked wage inflation has caused the federal reserve in essence to shit their pants and all but acknowledge that inflation has gone hyper-inflationary.
On the back of supremely strong and might I add "Faked" jobs numbers the market rallied at the same time the 10 year yield shot through the fucking roof.
Combine this with the fact that the Vix futures were pre-imminently disconnected from the Vix as a smokescreen. All of this amounts to a fundamental paradigm shift in economic policy that is shifting fast toward an un-backed dollar.
This new world order seeks to control the population through the most cost effective means possible.
It is for this reason alone we will witness any and all government bonds for the first time in history going negative.
No they will not be paying interest on these bonds they owe to other nations. They will be avoiding payments before the great "Collapse".
America all the sudden; is a 3rd world nation. With a populous, one nation under slavery. With liberty and Justice for none.
.
It's finally here... After four challenging years, TLT is making a strong return.
The key resistance level to watch is $100.00 or 50 EMA which can act as support or resistance.
If we can break through this barrier, there's a strong possibility of reaching all-time highs within the next 12 months. This potential is fueled by expected interest rate cuts, which could significantly benefit TLT.
First, rate cuts would likely increase bond prices, boosting TLT's net asset value. Second, lower future yield expectations could drive investors to seek the stability and income that long-term bonds offer, further increasing demand. Finally, in times of economic uncertainty , investors often turn to long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, making TLT an attractive choice in a low-rate environment.
TLT Daily Falling Wedge Just FormedFalling Wedge
When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line.
When the price breaks the upper trend line, the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price.
NFA. Trade at your own risk.
Golden cross 50/200 EMA
The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside. This happens when the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average until they cross.
This is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market.
There are three stages to a golden cross:
A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted. A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average. Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices.
TLTan upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
TLT bullish and safe near term and long term TLT bullish and safe near term and long term
This is what I found in most bullish and bearish retracements , once you get 100% retracement of up or down move then next level is normally 1.618. If it retrace up to 50% after 100% then it's even more bullish, if it goes under 50% after 100% then it's super bearish. Have fun finding 50-100% fib retracements.
TLT BullishIndicators show a long movement on TLT
Price target should be 100-101, but if breaks up, it may continue going up
Indicators are base on V4h, which is a cosistent timeframe.
Clean Break To The UpsideFalling Wedge Pattern
Success rate : Falling wedge statistics - In 82% of cases, the exit is bullish. - In 55% of cases, a falling wedge is a reversal pattern. - In 63% of cases, the pattern's price objective is achieved when the resistance line is broken.
Why should you buy into bonds after a rate cut?
HERE ARE 5 REASONS...
When a central bank cuts interest rates, bonds can become more attractive for several reasons:
1: Bond Prices Tend to Rise: When interest rates fall, the yield on new bonds is lower, making existing bonds with higher yields more attractive. As a result, the price of existing bonds rises, which benefits those who already own them or buy in anticipation of further price increases.
2: Fixed Returns Become More Attractive: After a rate cut, returns from savings accounts and other short-term investments decline. Bonds, offering a fixed rate of return, become more appealing, especially for income-focused investors looking for stability in a low-rate environment.
3: Lower Future Borrowing Costs: A rate cut often signals that borrowing costs will stay low, benefiting businesses and governments that issue bonds. This may lead to more bond issuances, and investors can capitalize on buying bonds before yields drop further.
4: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Rate cuts often occur during economic slowdowns or periods of uncertainty. Bonds, particularly government or high-quality corporate bonds, are seen as safer investments compared to stocks, making them attractive for risk-averse investors.
5: Capital Gains Potential: As bond prices increase with falling rates, there is an opportunity for capital gains. Investors can potentially sell bonds at a higher price than they were purchased for, profiting from the price appreciation.
In short, buying bonds after a rate cut can offer both income stability and the potential for price gains, especially in a low-interest-rate environment.
TLT bonds bound to do somethingLong term is a buy, short term is neutral. If people sell, I buy. #winning
$TLT - Finger to the skySome random artwork of what looks like a hand pointing upwards, thought I'd add some special effects haha
TLT Headed Towards 100TLT should continue to develop higher through 94.84 and 100.57 against the wave (ii) of {c} low of 89.82 following the completion of a perfectly proportioned zigzag wave {b} as well as a distinct diagonal wave (i) of {c}.
Long term yields are going UPThe price is above the cloud on the weekly timeframe and is currently testing the 100MA. Despite the huge speculative trading around this particular ticker, the trend seems to be heading toward a full reversal.
The driving force behind this shift is macroeconomics: the anticipated rate cuts, which are expected to lower short-term bond prices while supporting the long-term ones.
TLT MAJOR TOP A=.786 x = wave C to the TICK ! BEARISH BONDS The chart is the TlT we have reached what I call an IDEAL TRADE I have moved to a 90% LONG long term puts in the money . Stop 102.1 I see a major move up in the US $ and major decline in bonds .
TLT $140 by April 17th 2025TLT is on a path that will not be stopped, realizing $140 by April 17th 2025.
Unemployment is rising, Consumer Prices are falling, Sahm Rule has been triggered, Yield Curve has disinverted, Crude Oil is crashing, VIX is spiking, among many other indicators which signal market turmoil ahead.
Soon everyone will say they knew bonds were going higher, they will talk about how obvious it was to them.
TLT - Once they start cutting rates it won't stop until 0Copy the 2007-2010 TLT price pattern. Impose in to 2024.
Once The Fed starts cutting rates they won't stop until they reach basically 0%.
TLT from the bottomTLT from the bottom looking at it coming off the cloud and ready to moon with rate cuts.... maybe
TLT- Flight to SafetyTLT will soon become (its already started if youve been paying attention) a major safe haven
Rate cuts are imminent and is typical of the market...so is a corresponding market crash
Weve already caught our flight...have you?
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!
Market Update - 9/7/2024• no setups, screener results are the worst I've seen in a while, breadth is worsening
• weak employment data, yield curve uninversion was driving a lot of the move down
• might have a rebound or a calm week next week, but generally, I see more downside ahead
• I'm mostly short, not looking to enter long until markets stabilize
